Consequences of various landscape-scale ecosystem management strategies and fire cycles on age-class structure and harvest in boreal forests

At the landscape scale, one of the key indicators of sustainable forest management is the age-class distribution of stands, since it provides a coarse synopsis of habitat potential, structural complexity, and stand volume, and it is directly modified by timber extraction and wildfire. To explore the consequences of several landscape-scale boreal forest management strategies on age-class structure in the Mauricie region of Quebec, we used spatially explicit simulation modelling. Our study investigated three different harvesting strategies (the one currently practiced and two different strategies to maintain late seral stands) and interactions between fire and harvesting on stand age-class distribution. We found that the legacy of initial forested age structure and its spatial configuration can pose short- (<50 years) to medium-term (150-300 years) challenges to balancing wood supply and ecological objectives. Also, ongoing disturbance by fire, even at relatively long cycles in relation to historic levels, can further constrain the achievement of both timber and biodiversity goals. For example, when fire was combined with management, harvest shortfalls occurred in all scenarios with a fire cycle of 100 years and most scenarios with a fire cycle of 150 years. Even a fire cycle of 500 years led to a reduction in older forest when its maintenance was not a primary constraint. Our results highlight the need to consider the broad-scale effects of natural disturbance when developing ecosystem management policies and the importance of prioritizing objectives when planning for multiple resource use

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods: We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings: Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation: Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980�2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. Methods We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14�294 geography�year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95 uncertainty interval 61·4�61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5�72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7�17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5�70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1 (2·6�5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0 (15·8�18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1 (12·6�16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1 (11·9�14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1, 39·1�44·6), malaria (43·1, 34·7�51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8, 24·8�34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1, 19·3�37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146�000 deaths, 118�000�183�000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393�000 deaths, 228�000�532�000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost YLLs) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death. Interpretation At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY licens

Simultaneous energy and mass calibration of large-radius jets with the ATLAS detector using a deep neural network

The energy and mass measurements of jets are crucial tasks for the Large Hadron Collider experiments. This paper presents a new calibration method to simultaneously calibrate these quantities for large-radius jets measured with the ATLAS detector using a deep neural network (DNN). To address the specificities of the calibration problem, special loss functions and training procedures are employed, and a complex network architecture, which includes feature annotation and residual connection layers, is used. The DNN-based calibration is compared to the standard numerical approach in an extensive series of tests. The DNN approach is found to perform significantly better in almost all of the tests and over most of the relevant kinematic phase space. In particular, it consistently improves the energy and mass resolutions, with a 30% better energy resolution obtained for transverse momenta pT > 500 GeV

Measurement of the VH,H → ττ process with the ATLAS detector at 13 TeV

A measurement of the Standard Model Higgs boson produced in association with a W or Z boson and decaying into a pair of τ-leptons is presented. This search is based on proton-proton collision data collected at √s = 13 TeV by the ATLAS experiment at the LHC corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 140 fb−1. For the Higgs boson candidate, only final states with at least one τ-lepton decaying hadronically (τ →hadrons + vτ ) are considered. For the vector bosons, only leptonic decay channels are considered: Z → ℓℓ and W → ℓvℓ, with ℓ = e, μ. An excess of events over the expected background is found with an observed (expected) significance of 4.2 (3.6) standard deviations, providing evidence of the Higgs boson produced in association with a vector boson and decaying into a pair of τ-leptons. The ratio of the measured cross-section to the Standard Model prediction is μττ VH = 1.28 +0.30 −0.29 (stat.) +0.25 −0.21 (syst.). This result represents the most accurate measurement of the VH(ττ) process achieved to date

Measurements of the production cross-section for a Z boson in association with b- or c-jets in proton–proton collisions at √s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper presents a measurement of the production cross-section of a Z boson in association with bor c-jets, in proton–proton collisions at √s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 140 fb−1. Inclusive and differential cross-sections are measured for events containing a Z boson decaying into electrons or muons and produced in association with at least one b-jet, at least one c-jet, or at least two b-jets with transverse momentum pT > 20 GeV and rapidity |y| < 2.5. Predictions from several Monte Carlo generators based on next-to-leading-order matrix elements interfaced with a parton-shower simulation, with different choices of flavour schemes for initial-state partons, are compared with the measured cross-sections. The results are also compared with novel predictions, based on infrared and collinear safe jet flavour dressing algorithms. Selected Z+ ≥ 1 c-jet observables, optimized for sensitivity to intrinsic-charm, are compared with benchmark models with different intrinsic-charm fractions

Combination of searches for heavy spin-1 resonances using 139 fb−1 of proton-proton collision data at √s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A combination of searches for new heavy spin-1 resonances decaying into diferent pairings of W, Z, or Higgs bosons, as well as directly into leptons or quarks, is presented. The data sample used corresponds to 139 fb−1 of proton-proton collisions at √s = 13 TeV collected during 2015–2018 with the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. Analyses selecting quark pairs (qq, bb, tt¯, and tb) or third-generation leptons (τν and τ τ ) are included in this kind of combination for the frst time. A simplifed model predicting a spin-1 heavy vector-boson triplet is used. Cross-section limits are set at the 95% confdence level and are compared with predictions for the benchmark model. These limits are also expressed in terms of constraints on couplings of the heavy vector-boson triplet to quarks, leptons, and the Higgs boson. The complementarity of the various analyses increases the sensitivity to new physics, and the resulting constraints are stronger than those from any individual analysis considered. The data exclude a heavy vector-boson triplet with mass below 5.8 TeV in a weakly coupled scenario, below 4.4 TeV in a strongly coupled scenario, and up to 1.5 TeV in the case of production via vector-boson fusion

Differential cross-sections for events with missing transverse momentum and jets measured with the ATLAS detector in 13 TeV proton-proton collisions

Measurements of inclusive, diferential cross-sections for the production of events with missing transverse momentum in association with jets in proton-proton collisions at √s = 13 TeV are presented. The measurements are made with the ATLAS detector using an integrated luminosity of 140 fb−1 and include measurements of dijet distributions in a region in which vector-boson fusion processes are enhanced. They are unfolded to correct for detector resolution and efficiency within the fiducial acceptance, and are designed to allow robust comparisons with a wide range of theoretical predictions. A measurement of differential cross sections for the Z → νν process is made. The measurements are generally well-described by Standard Model predictions except for the dijet invariant mass distribution. Auxiliary measurements of the hadronic system recoiling against isolated leptons, and photons, are also made in the same phase space. Ratios between the measured distributions are then derived, to take advantage of cancellations in modelling effects and some of the major systematic uncertainties. These measurements are sensitive to new phenomena, and provide a mechanism to easily set constraints on phenomenological models. To illustrate the robustness of the approach, these ratios are compared with two common Dark Matter models, where the constraints derived from the measurement are comparable to those set by dedicated detector-level searches

Search for non-resonant Higgs boson pair production in final states with leptons, taus, and photons in pp collisions at √s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search is presented for non-resonant Higgs boson pair production, targeting the bbZZ, 4V (V = W or Z), V V τ τ , 4τ , γγV V and γγτ τ decay channels. Events are categorised based on the multiplicity of light charged leptons (electrons or muons), hadronically decaying tau leptons, and photons. The search is based on a data sample of proton-proton collisions at √s = 13 TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector during Run 2 of the Large Hadron Collider, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 140 fb−1. No evidence of the signal is found and the observed (expected) upper limit on the cross-section for non-resonant Higgs boson pair production is determined to be 17 (11) times the Standard Model predicted cross-section at 95% confidence level under the background-only hypothesis. The observed (expected) constraints on the HHH coupling modifier, κλ, are determined to be −6.2 < κλ < 11.6 (−4.5 < κλ < 9.6) at 95% confidence level, assuming the Standard Model for the expected limits and that new physics would only affect κλ