The US stock market leads the Federal funds rate and Treasury bond yields

Using a recently introduced method to quantify the time varying lead-lag dependencies between pairs of economic time series (the thermal optimal path method), we test two fundamental tenets of the theory of fixed income: (i) the stock market variations and the yield changes should be anti-correlated; (ii) the change in central bank rates, as a proxy of the monetary policy of the central bank, should be a predictor of the future stock market direction. Using both monthly and weekly data, we found very similar lead-lag dependence between the S&P500 stock market index and the yields of bonds inside two groups: bond yields of short-term maturities (Federal funds rate (FFR), 3M, 6M, 1Y, 2Y, and 3Y) and bond yields of long-term maturities (5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 20Y). In all cases, we observe the opposite of (i) and (ii). First, the stock market and yields move in the same direction. Second, the stock market leads the yields, including and especially the FFR. Moreover, we find that the short-term yields in the first group lead the long-term yields in the second group before the financial crisis that started mid-2007 and the inverse relationship holds afterwards. These results suggest that the Federal Reserve is increasingly mindful of the stock market behavior, seen at key to the recovery and health of the economy. Long-term investors seem also to have been more reactive and mindful of the signals provided by the financial stock markets than the Federal Reserve itself after the start of the financial crisis. The lead of the S&P500 stock market index over the bond yields of all maturities is confirmed by the traditional lagged cross-correlation analysis.Comment: 12 pages, 7 figures, 1 tabl

Lineage Divergence and Historical Gene Flow in the Chinese Horseshoe Bat (Rhinolophus sinicus)

PMCID: PMC3581519This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited

Search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum in pp collisions at √ s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Results of a search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum are reported. The search uses 20.3 fb−1 of √ s = 8 TeV data collected in 2012 with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Events are required to have at least one jet with pT > 120 GeV and no leptons. Nine signal regions are considered with increasing missing transverse momentum requirements between Emiss T > 150 GeV and Emiss T > 700 GeV. Good agreement is observed between the number of events in data and Standard Model expectations. The results are translated into exclusion limits on models with either large extra spatial dimensions, pair production of weakly interacting dark matter candidates, or production of very light gravitinos in a gauge-mediated supersymmetric model. In addition, limits on the production of an invisibly decaying Higgs-like boson leading to similar topologies in the final state are presente

Source Evaluation and Trace Metal Contamination in Benthic Sediments from Equatorial Ecosystems Using Multivariate Statistical Techniques

race metals (Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni and Pb) concentrations in benthic sediments were analyzed through multi-step fractionation scheme to assess the levels and sources of contamination in estuarine, riverine and freshwater ecosystems in Niger Delta (Nigeria). The degree of contamination was assessed using the individual contamination factors (ICF) and global contamination factor (GCF). Multivariate statistical approaches including principal component analysis (PCA), cluster analysis and correlation test were employed to evaluate the interrelationships and associated sources of contamination. The spatial distribution of metal concentrations followed the pattern Pb>Cu>Cr>Cd>Ni. Ecological risk index by ICF showed significant potential mobility and bioavailability for Cu, Cu and Ni. The ICF contamination trend in the benthic sediments at all studied sites was Cu>Cr>Ni>Cd>Pb. The principal component and agglomerative clustering analyses indicate that trace metals contamination in the ecosystems was influenced by multiple pollution sources

Measurement of the matrix element for the decay η′→ηπ +π -

The Dalitz plot of η⊃′→ηπ⊃+π⊃- decay is studied using (225.2±2.8)×106 J/ψ events collected with the BESIII detector at the BEPCII e⊃+e⊃- collider. With the largest sample of η⊃′ decays to date, the parameters of the Dalitz plot are determined in a generalized and a linear representation. Also, the branching fraction of J/ψ→γη⊃′ is determined to be (4.84±0.03±0.24)×10⊃-3, where the first error is statistical and the second systematic. © 2011 American Physical Society.published_or_final_versio

Determination of the number of J/ψ events with J/ψ → inclusive decays

postprin

Higher-order multipole amplitude measurement in ψ ′→γχ c2

Using 106×106 ψ ′ events collected with the BESIII detector at the BEPCII storage ring, the higher-order multipole amplitudes in the radiative transition ψ ′→γχ c2→γπ +π -/γK +K - are measured. A fit to the χ c2 production and decay angular distributions yields M2=0.046±0. 010±0.013 and E3=0.015±0.008±0.018, where the first errors are statistical and the second systematic. Here M2 denotes the normalized magnetic quadrupole amplitude and E3 the normalized electric octupole amplitude. This measurement shows evidence for the existence of the M2 signal with 4.4σ statistical significance and is consistent with the charm quark having no anomalous magnetic moment. © 2011 American Physical Society.published_or_final_versio

Performance of missing transverse momentum reconstruction with the ATLAS detector using proton–proton collisions at √s = 13 TeV

The performance of the missing transverse momentum (EmissT) reconstruction with the ATLAS detector is evaluated using data collected in proton–proton collisions at the LHC at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV in 2015. To reconstruct EmissT, fully calibrated electrons, muons, photons, hadronically decaying τ -leptons, and jets reconstructed from calorimeter energy deposits and charged-particle tracks are used. These are combined with the soft hadronic activity measured by reconstructed charged-particle tracks not associated with the hard objects. Possible double counting of contributions from reconstructed charged-particle tracks from the inner detector, energy deposits in the calorimeter, and reconstructed muons from the muon spectrometer is avoided by applying a signal ambiguity resolution procedure which rejects already used signals when combining the various EmissT contributions. The individual terms as well as the overall reconstructed EmissT are evaluated with various performance metrics for scale (linearity), resolution, and sensitivity to the data-taking conditions. The method developed to determine the systematic uncertainties of the EmissT scale and resolution is discussed. Results are shown based on the full 2015 data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3.2 fb−1

Operation and performance of the ATLAS Tile Calorimeter in Run 1

The Tile Calorimeter is the hadron calorimeter covering the central region of the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider. Approximately 10,000 photomultipliers collect light from scintillating tiles acting as the active material sandwiched between slabs of steel absorber. This paper gives an overview of the calorimeter’s performance during the years 2008–2012 using cosmic-ray muon events and proton–proton collision data at centre-of-mass energies of 7 and 8TeV with a total integrated luminosity of nearly 30 fb−1. The signal reconstruction methods, calibration systems as well as the detector operation status are presented. The energy and time calibration methods performed excellently, resulting in good stability of the calorimeter response under varying conditions during the LHC Run 1. Finally, the Tile Calorimeter response to isolated muons and hadrons as well as to jets from proton–proton collisions is presented. The results demonstrate excellent performance in accord with specifications mentioned in the Technical Design Report