Ajustes de juicio: Impacto de apoyos reductores de sesgos en la precisión y en los tiempos de procesamiento del pronóstico

La presente investigación tuvo como finalidad determinar los efectos en la precisión y en los tiempos de procesamiento de un pronóstico ajustado por juicio, cuando este se realiza bajo la presencia de apoyos reductores de sesgos de tipo consciente e inconsciente específicos. En apoyos reductores de sesgos de tipo consciente, fueron comparadas cuatro poblaciones con diferentes niveles de entrenamiento: Tradicional, Enfocado, Doble (Tradicional + Enfocado) y Sin Entrenamiento, dónde se encontró que poblaciones con componentes de entrenamiento tradicional fueron más imprecisas respecto de aquellas que no lo recibieron. Así mismo también se encontró que en ausencia de información privilegiada, con base en la cual el pronosticador pueda ajustar, la precisión se perjudica en mayor medida por optar por grandes ajustes, en cambio, en presencia de pequeños ajustes se obtienen resultados similares a no ajustar. La estrategia de tipo no consciente, buscó reducir el impacto del ruido sobre la calidad del ajuste, comparando el efecto de la forma visual del histórico mediante el uso de gráficas tipo Bouba (redondeadas) y tipo Kiki (puntiagudas). Se encontró que estos supuestos apoyos reductores de sesgos de naturaleza inconsciente no generaron efectos estadísticamente significativos en la precisión y en el tiempo de procesamiento del ajuste de juicio.This research aimed to determine the effects on accuracy and in the processing time of a Judgmental forecasting, when it is done under the presence of conscious and unconscious supports that reduce different bias. For studying the effects of reducing bias by a conscious support, there were compared four populations, each one with a different training: Traditional, Focused, Dual (Traditional + Focused) and Without Training. It was found that those who had components of traditional training where more inaccurate that those who did not. Likewise, there was also found that in the absence of privileged information, accuracy is harmed more by those who use larger adjustments than those who use smaller ones, and that accuracy is similar between small adjustments and not adjusting the forecast at all. The unconscious strategy sought to reduce the noise effect on the quality of the fit by comparing the effect of the visual form of historical graphs while using Bouba (rounded) or Kiki (pointy) style. It was found that these alleged reducing biases unconscious supports did not generate statistically significant effects on the accuracy nor in the processing time of a Judgmental forecasting.Ingeniero (a) IndustrialPregrad

Obstetricia integral siglo XXI. Tomo II

El libro Obstetricia Integral siglo XXI, Tomo II, es una publicación virtual de la Facultad de Medicina, se trata de la continuación sobre el análisis detallado de los principales tópicos en el área de la obstetricia, realizada por un grupo interdisciplinario de investigadores comprometidos con el mejoramiento de la calidad en el cuidado de la salud de la mujer gestante. Se ha procurado un balance entre los aspectos básicos de fisiopatología y las guías de atención clínica soportadas en evidencias científicas, con el ánimo de brindarle al lector un equilibrio entre las bases biopsico-sociales de la salud y la enfermedad y los aspectos prácticos de la atención clínica.Vargas Fiesco, Diana Carolina and Rubio Romero, Jorge Andrés and Ruiz Parra, Ariel Iván and Rodríguez, Luis Martín and Aragón, Miguel Eduardo and Arteaga Díaz, Clara Eugenia and Riaño, Jorge Enrique and Arenas Gamboa, Jaime and Ramírez Martínez, Javier Andrés and Amaya Guío, Jairo and Gaitán , Magda Alexandry and Gallego Arbeláez, Jaime and Cortés Díaz, Daniel Otálvaro and Ángel Müller, Edith and Bracho Ch., Alcides C. and Bautista Charry, Alejandro and Rodríguez Ramos, Marcela and Navarro Milanés, Alfonso and Díaz Cruz, Luz Amparo and Mercado Pedroza, Manuel Esteban and Gaitán Duarte, Hernando and Gómez Sánchez, Pio Iván and Peña, Diana Marcela and Calvo Gómez, José Manuel and Parra Pineda, Mario Orlando and Cárdenas Muñoz, María Luisa (2010) Obstetricia integral siglo XXI. Tomo II. Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá. ISBN 978958447618

La educación en psicología a través de la virtualidad

La educación en psicología a través de la virtualidad es la presentación de las investigaciones que se han realizado en Politécnico Grancolombiano sobre cómo educar (y mejorar el proceso educativo), desde la disciplina encargada de velar por la salud mental de las personas. A lo largo de estos capítulos se describen las mejores estrategias para mantener la educación virtual con los más altos estándares de calidad, para finalmente entender cómo proyectarnos en medio de los retos de ejercer una profesión que tradicionalmente se ha contextualizado en la presencialidad

The Seventeenth Data Release of the Sloan Digital Sky Surveys: Complete Release of MaNGA, MaStar and APOGEE-2 Data

This paper documents the seventeenth data release (DR17) from the Sloan Digital Sky Surveys; the fifth and final release from the fourth phase (SDSS-IV). DR17 contains the complete release of the Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory (MaNGA) survey, which reached its goal of surveying over 10,000 nearby galaxies. The complete release of the MaNGA Stellar Library (MaStar) accompanies this data, providing observations of almost 30,000 stars through the MaNGA instrument during bright time. DR17 also contains the complete release of the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment 2 (APOGEE-2) survey which publicly releases infra-red spectra of over 650,000 stars. The main sample from the Extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS), as well as the sub-survey Time Domain Spectroscopic Survey (TDSS) data were fully released in DR16. New single-fiber optical spectroscopy released in DR17 is from the SPectroscipic IDentification of ERosita Survey (SPIDERS) sub-survey and the eBOSS-RM program. Along with the primary data sets, DR17 includes 25 new or updated Value Added Catalogs (VACs). This paper concludes the release of SDSS-IV survey data. SDSS continues into its fifth phase with observations already underway for the Milky Way Mapper (MWM), Local Volume Mapper (LVM) and Black Hole Mapper (BHM) surveys

Memorias de investigación: Feria de Semilleros y Jornadas de Investigación de uniminuto, Seccional Antioquia - Chocó.

Feria de Semilleros y Jornadas de Investigación de uniminuto, Seccional Antioquia - Chocó.Esta publicación busca divulgar investigaciones y producción académica en diferentes disciplinas, realizadas por estudiantes y docentes de UNIMINUTO Seccional Antioquia – Chocó, así como dar a conocer los semilleros de investigación que participaron en la V Feria de Semilleros, con el fin de visibilizar el trabajo que realiza el Centro de Investigación para el Desarrollo de UNIMINUTO Bello —CIDUB—, con respecto a debates académicos y espacios de interlocución. Igualmente, permite que la comunidad educativa conozca los temas de investigación y las discusiones que se están dando entre los semilleros y grupos de investigación, para así buscar puntos de encuentro y sinergias entre los investigadores. Adicionalmente, el texto se convierte en una invitación para que se vinculen otros investigadores, docentes, estudiantes e incluso otras instituciones a los procesos investigativos coordinados desde el CIDUB

Memorias de investigación: Feria de Semilleros y Jornadas de Investigación de uniminuto, Seccional Antioquia - Chocó.

Feria de Semilleros y Jornadas de Investigación de uniminuto, Seccional Antioquia - Chocó.Esta publicación busca divulgar investigaciones y producción académica en diferentes disciplinas, realizadas por estudiantes y docentes de UNIMINUTO Seccional Antioquia – Chocó, así como dar a conocer los semilleros de investigación que participaron en la V Feria de Semilleros, con el fin de visibilizar el trabajo que realiza el Centro de Investigación para el Desarrollo de UNIMINUTO Bello —CIDUB—, con respecto a debates académicos y espacios de interlocución. Igualmente, permite que la comunidad educativa conozca los temas de investigación y las discusiones que se están dando entre los semilleros y grupos de investigación, para así buscar puntos de encuentro y sinergias entre los investigadores. Adicionalmente, el texto se convierte en una invitación para que se vinculen otros investigadores, docentes, estudiantes e incluso otras instituciones a los procesos investigativos coordinados desde el CIDUB

Optimasi Portofolio Resiko Menggunakan Model Markowitz MVO Dikaitkan dengan Keterbatasan Manusia dalam Memprediksi Masa Depan dalam Perspektif Al-Qur`an

Risk portfolio on modern finance has become increasingly technical, requiring the use of sophisticated mathematical tools in both research and practice. Since companies cannot insure themselves completely against risk, as human incompetence in predicting the future precisely that written in Al-Quran surah Luqman verse 34, they have to manage it to yield an optimal portfolio. The objective here is to minimize the variance among all portfolios, or alternatively, to maximize expected return among all portfolios that has at least a certain expected return. Furthermore, this study focuses on optimizing risk portfolio so called Markowitz MVO (Mean-Variance Optimization). Some theoretical frameworks for analysis are arithmetic mean, geometric mean, variance, covariance, linear programming, and quadratic programming. Moreover, finding a minimum variance portfolio produces a convex quadratic programming, that is minimizing the objective function ðð¥with constraintsð ð 𥠥 ðandð´ð¥ = ð. The outcome of this research is the solution of optimal risk portofolio in some investments that could be finished smoothly using MATLAB R2007b software together with its graphic analysis

Differential cross section measurements for the production of a W boson in association with jets in proton–proton collisions at √s = 7 TeV

Measurements are reported of differential cross sections for the production of a W boson, which decays into a muon and a neutrino, in association with jets, as a function of several variables, including the transverse momenta (pT) and pseudorapidities of the four leading jets, the scalar sum of jet transverse momenta (HT), and the difference in azimuthal angle between the directions of each jet and the muon. The data sample of pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV was collected with the CMS detector at the LHC and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 5.0 fb[superscript −1]. The measured cross sections are compared to predictions from Monte Carlo generators, MadGraph + pythia and sherpa, and to next-to-leading-order calculations from BlackHat + sherpa. The differential cross sections are found to be in agreement with the predictions, apart from the pT distributions of the leading jets at high pT values, the distributions of the HT at high-HT and low jet multiplicity, and the distribution of the difference in azimuthal angle between the leading jet and the muon at low values.United States. Dept. of EnergyNational Science Foundation (U.S.)Alfred P. Sloan Foundatio

Impacts of the Tropical Pacific/Indian Oceans on the Seasonal Cycle of the West African Monsoon

The current consensus is that drought has developed in the Sahel during the second half of the twentieth century as a result of remote effects of oceanic anomalies amplified by local land–atmosphere interactions. This paper focuses on the impacts of oceanic anomalies upon West African climate and specifically aims to identify those from SST anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Oceans during spring and summer seasons, when they were significant. Idealized sensitivity experiments are performed with four atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The prescribed SST patterns used in the AGCMs are based on the leading mode of covariability between SST anomalies over the Pacific/Indian Oceans and summer rainfall over West Africa. The results show that such oceanic anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Ocean lead to a northward shift of an anomalous dry belt from the Gulf of Guinea to the Sahel as the season advances. In the Sahel, the magnitude of rainfall anomalies is comparable to that obtained by other authors using SST anomalies confined to the proximity of the Atlantic Ocean. The mechanism connecting the Pacific/Indian SST anomalies with West African rainfall has a strong seasonal cycle. In spring (May and June), anomalous subsidence develops over both the Maritime Continent and the equatorial Atlantic in response to the enhanced equatorial heating. Precipitation increases over continental West Africa in association with stronger zonal convergence of moisture. In addition, precipitation decreases over the Gulf of Guinea. During the monsoon peak (July and August), the SST anomalies move westward over the equatorial Pacific and the two regions where subsidence occurred earlier in the seasons merge over West Africa. The monsoon weakens and rainfall decreases over the Sahel, especially in August.Peer reviewe

Search for stop and higgsino production using diphoton Higgs boson decays

Results are presented of a search for a "natural" supersymmetry scenario with gauge mediated symmetry breaking. It is assumed that only the supersymmetric partners of the top-quark (stop) and the Higgs boson (higgsino) are accessible. Events are examined in which there are two photons forming a Higgs boson candidate, and at least two b-quark jets. In 19.7 inverse femtobarns of proton-proton collision data at sqrt(s) = 8 TeV, recorded in the CMS experiment, no evidence of a signal is found and lower limits at the 95% confidence level are set, excluding the stop mass below 360 to 410 GeV, depending on the higgsino mass