AgMIP Regional Activities in a Global Framework: The Brazil Experience

Climate variability and change are projected to increate the frequency of extreme high-temperature events, floods, and droughts, which can lead to subsequent changes in soil moister in many locations (Alexandrov and Hoogenboom, 2000). In Brazil, observations reveal a tendency for increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events particularly in south Brazil (Alexander et al., 2006; Carvalho et al., 2014; Groissman et al., 2005), as well as projections for increasing extremes in both maximum and minimum temperatures and high spatial variability for rainfall under the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios (Marengo et al., 2009)

Učinak praha avokada, suncokretova ulja te različitih omjera voluminozne i koncentrirane krme u obroku na unos hrane, probavljivost hrane i proizvodnost mladih ovnova

The objective of this study was to evaluate the inclusion of avocado flour and sunflower oil as energy sources in different proportions, as well as different forage:concentrate ratios on the productive performance and feed intake of male rams, and the in vitro dry matter digestibility, organic matter digestibility and gas production. The intake was measured in diets containing avocado flour or sunflower oil with 60% forage: 40% concentrate, and in diets with different forage:concentrate ratios and 10% inclusion of avocado flour or sunflower oil. The daily weight gain was registered for 84 days, the in vitro dry matter digestibility was determined at 48 h, and the in vitro gas production was evaluated at 72 h. The partial production of gas at 24 hours, raw protein, raw fat, and ash were used to estimate the metabolizable energy and organic matter digestibility. Low levels of avocado flour and sunflower oil in the diet showed the highest intake, in vitro dry matter digestibility and in vitro gas production. Daily weight gains were 0.28 kg in avocado flour and 0.30 kg in sunflower oil diets, both at 10% inclusion and 40% forage: 60% concentrate. The inclusion of high levels of avocado flour or forage in the diet decreased the feed intake of male sheep. The best avocado flour level was 10% with 40% forage: 60% concentrate.Cilj rada bio je istražiti utjecaj različitih omjera između praha avokada i suncokretova ulja kao izvora energije, te različitih omjera između voluminozne i koncentrirane krme u obroku na unos hrane i proizvodnost mladih ovnova. Osim toga, in vitro istražena je probavljivost suhe tvari, probavljivost organske tvari i proizvodnja plina. Unos hrane mjeren je u obrocima koji su sadržavali prah avokada ili suncokretovo ulje uz omjer između voluminozne i koncentrirane krme od 60:40% ili u obrocima sa različitim omjerom voluminozne i koncentrirane krme uz dodatak 10% praha avokada ili suncokretova ulja. Dnevni prirast bilježen je tijekom 84 dana. Probavljivost suhe tvari in vitro određivana je 48 h, a proizvodnja plina in vitro 72 h od uzimanja uzoraka. Za određivanje metaboličke energije i probavljivosti organske tvari korišteni su parcijalna proizvodnja plina 24-ti sat, sirovi protein, sirova mast i pepeo. Niske razine praha avokada i suncokretova ulja u obroku rezultirale su najvišim unosom hrane te najvišom in vitro probavljivošću suhe tvari i in vitro proizvodnjom plina. Dnevni prirast bio je 0,28 kg u životinja kojima je davano 10% praha avokada, 0,30 kg u životinja kojima je davano 10% suncokretova ulja, pri čemu je omjer voluminozne i koncentrirane krme iznosio 40:60%. Dodavanje visokih razina praha avokada ili voluminozne krme u obrok dovelo je do nižeg unosa hrane kod mladih ovnova pa je zaključeno da je najpovoljnija razina dodanog praha avokada 10% uz omjer voluminozne i koncentrirane krme 40:60%

Estado actual da aquacultura na selva peruana: caso de Loreto / Current status of aquaculture in the Peruvian jungle: the case of Loreto

El propósito de la investigación fue determinar las características de la actividad acuícola del departamento de Loreto. Se aplicó un cuestionario a 141 acuicultores de los distritos de Nauta, San Juan Bautista e Indiana. Los resultados muestran que el 64% de los Centros Acuícolas son de tipo AREL y el 36% del tipo AMYPE. Además, el 83.69% de los centros acuícolas  tienen un nivel de producción baja (< 3,5 TM), predominando los Centros Acuícolas con 1-2 estanques de tierra, se evidencia su poca capacidad de gestión y escaso uso de tecnología, solo el  31.9% realizan análisis del agua en los estanques y una vez al mes(restándole eficacia a este dato), aplica baja densidad de carga, usa menos de la cuarta parte de cal de lo recomendado, usa alto nivel de alimento balanceado (por su alto costo) sustituyéndolo por alimento natural lo que alarga el periodo de cultivo con pesos menores a lo capturado en los ríos. Se concluye que en la Región Loreto predomina el policultivo de (sábalo y/o gamitana) con una producción acuícola con escasa tecnificación en el manejo del recurso hídrico y el cultivo propiamente dicho, teniendo como resultado cultivos con baja densidad de sembrado, inversión, etc

Biophysical and Economic Implications for Agriculture of +1.5 and +2.0C Global Warming Using AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments

This study presents results of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of +1.5 and +2.0 C global warming above pre-industrial conditions. This first CGRA application provides multi-discipline, multi-scale, and multi-model perspectives to elucidate major challenges for the agricultural sector caused by direct biophysical impacts of climate changes as well as ramifications of associated mitigation strategies. Agriculture in both target climate stabilizations is characterized by differential impacts across regions and farming systems, with tropical maize (Zea mays) experiencing the largest losses while soy (Glycine max) mostly benefits. The result is upward pressure on prices and area expansion for maize and wheat (Triticum), while soy prices and area decline (results for rice, Oryza sativa, are mixed). An example global mitigation strategy encouraging bioenergy expansion is more disruptive to land use and crop prices than the climate change impacts alone, even in the +2.0 C World which has a larger climate signal and lower mitigation requirement than the +1.5 C World. Coordinated assessments reveal that direct biophysical and economic impacts can be substantially larger for regional farming systems than global production changes. Regional farmers can buffer negative effects or take advantage of new opportunities via mitigation incentives and farm management technologies. Primary uncertainties in the CGRA framework include the extent of CO2 benefits for diverse agricultural systems in crop models, as simulations without CO2 benefits show widespread production losses that raise prices and expand agricultural are

Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Maize Farms and Farm Household Incomes in South India: A Case Study from Tamil Nadu

South India is characterized by a wide variety of landscapes, soils and climatic zones. It is comprised of tropical, semi-arid, humid-moist, and high-altitude environments, which support a diversity of agricultural systems. Our study focused on the state of Tamil Nadu, which is characterized by a generally tropical climate, and receive rainfall during both the southwest monsoon season (SWM, June to September) and the northeast monsoon (NEM, September to December). Agriculture continues to be an important sector in the state economy, as more than 56 of the people depend on agriculture and allied sectors for their livelihood. Analysis of land-use patterns in Tamil Nadu reveals that in the past decade there has been a reduction in net sown area and current fallow, while the share of cultivable wastelands has increased. The area under cereals, pulses, and oilseeds had marginally declined, although area under commercial crops like turmeric, sugar-cane, banana, fruits, and vegetables has shown an increasing trend. The production performance of major crops like cereals, pulses, and oilseeds has not shown any significant increase. Demand and supply gap of important crops in Tamil Nadu for the year 2010 indicates that the state is lagging far behind in the production of various crops

Perfil socioeconômico dos piscicultores nas Comunidades do VRAEM do Norte, 2020 / Socioeconomic profile of fish farmers in the northern communities of the VRAEM, 2020

La presente investigación tuvo como objetivo, determinar el perfil económico y social de las comunidades acuícolas que se desarrollan en la zona norte del VRAEM, en cuanto a producción, inversión, comercialización, precios, creación de empleo, conformación familiar, educación, salud, servicios básicos, participación de la mujer, etc. Habiéndose aplicado un cuestionario a 85 acuicultores, 17 en Pariahuanca zona sierra, 39 en Satipo y 29 en Pichanaki zona selva.Los datos se analizaron con estadística descriptiva y correlacional cada uno de los indicadores socioeconómicos de la zona en estudio, observándose que la actividad principal de los acuicultores es la agricultura en el 74% de los encuestados, teniendo a la acuicultura como actividad complementaria ya que el 70% de los casos en promedio le dedica de 2-3 horas al día en promedio. Tiene poco impacto en el empleo, creando entre 1-3 empleos en el 88% de los centros acuícolas, siendo el nivel de producción por debajo de 2 TM (74.1%), con inversiones de 1000 - 5000 soles (71.7%). El canal de comercialización esta poco desarrollada, el 90.5% de los centros acuícolas lo venden en estado fresco, de forma directa o a través de minoristas (69.4%), con precios de 11 y 15 soles el kilo (92%). El 55.3% de los acuicultores tiene formación inadecuada, sin apalancamiento financiero (75.3%). En aspectos sociales se observa que el 51% de los acuicultores están casados, con familias hasta con 5 integrantes (86%), con viviendas predominantemente de madera (60%), resaltando ser propia en 85% de los encuestados y en el 73% ubicado en el mismo  centro acuícola; el no contando con servicios básicos como agua potable, alcantarillado, electricidad, internet y telefonía fija en 60%, 84%, 21%, 68% y 55% respectivamente; en nivel educativo solo lograron primeria 27% y secundaria 32%, estando las instituciones educativas de inicial, primaria y secundaria a distancia entre 1 a 5 kilómetros inicial en 52%, primaria en 58% y secundaria 67% respectivamente, y en cuanto al establecimiento de salud más cercano en el 38% manifestó distancia de 1 a 5 kilómetros y 25% de 5 a 10 kilómetros.Dado la importancia de la acuicultura en la alimentación de los pobladores del VRAEM, en su actividad económica social y los recursos naturales que posee, se recomienda a las instituciones Públicas plantear planes de desarrollo en este sector encaminados al crecimiento y desarrollo de las actividades económicas, sociales y técnicos

Diversity, distribution and natural Leishmania infection of sand flies from communities along the Interoceanic Highway in the Southeastern Peruvian Amazon

The Peruvian-Brazilian border is a highly endemic tegumentary leishmaniasis region in South America. The interoceanic highway is a commercial route that connects Peru and Brazil through Madre de Dios and has raised concerns about its impact on previously undisturbed areas. In order to assess leishmaniasis transmission risk along this highway, we conducted a surveillance study of the sand fly populations in this area. Sand flies were collected between 2009 and 2010 along transects at 200 m, 600 m and 1000 m from six study sites located along the highway (Iberia, La Novia, Alto Libertad, El Carmen, Florida Baja, Mazuko and Mavila) and an undisturbed area (Malinowski). Collected specimens were identified based on morphology and non-engorged females of each species were pooled and screened by kinetoplast PCR to detect natural Leishmania infections. A total of 9,023 specimens were collected belonging to 54 different Lutzomyia species including the first report of Lu. gantieri in Peru. Four species accounted for 50% of all specimens (Lutzomyia carrerai carrerai, Lu. davisi, Lu. shawi and Lu. richardwardi). El Carmen, Alto Libertad, Florida Baja and Malinowski presented higher Shannon diversity indexes (H = 2.36, 2.30, 2.17 and 2.13, respectively) than the most human disturbed sites of Mazuko and La Novia (H = 1.53 and 1.06, respectively). PCR detected 10 positive pools belonging to Lu. carrerai carrerai, Lu. yuilli yuilli, Lu. hirsuta hirsuta, Lu. (Trichophoromyia) spp., and Lu. (Lutzomyia) spp. Positive pools from 1,000 m transects had higher infectivity rates than those from 600 m and 200 m transects (9/169 = 5.3% vs 0/79 = 0% and 1/127 = 0.8%, p = 0.018). El Carmen, accounted for eight out of ten positives whereas one positive was collected in Florida Baja and Mazuko each. Our study has shown differences in sand fly diversity, abundance and species composition across and within sites. Multiple clustered Lutzomyia pools with natural Leishmania infection suggest a complex, diverse and spotty role in leishmaniasis transmission in Madre de Dios, with increased risk farther from the highway

Climate Change Impacts on Rice Farming Systems in Northwestern Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka has achieved tremendous progress since 1950 in crop production and food availability. Yields grew at an impressive rate until leveling off in the mid-eighties. Sri Lanka's population is anticipated to grow in the coming decades, creating an ever-greater demand for food security on the household, sub-district, regional, and national scales.The agricultural sector in Sri Lanka is vulnerable to climate shocks. An unusual succession of droughts and floods from 2008 to 2014 has led to both booms and busts in agricultural production, which were reflected in food prices. In both instances, the majority of farmers and consumers were adversely affected.At present the rice-farming systems are under stress due to inadequate returns for the farmers and difficulty in coping with shocks due to climate, pests, and diseases, and prices for produce. There are government price-support mechanisms, fertilizer-subsidy schemes, and crop insurance schemes, but the levels of the supports are modest and often do not effectively reach the farmers

Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: A pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

© The Author(s) 2018. Background: Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure. Methods: We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probittransformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure. Results: In 2005-16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the highincome Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association. Conclusions: Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups