Applying the Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme of convection in prediction of the Indian monsoon

The performance of the Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme of convection has been investigated for prediction of the Indian monsoons. For this purpose a limited area numerical weather prediction model with two schemes of convection, one with the Betts-Miller scheme and other with the Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme, is run for five cases of monsoon depression that made landfall over the Indian coast. The results from the two schemes are compared. Detailed analyses of mean sea level pressure, wind, and rainfall have shown that the Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme has considerably improved the rainfall prediction over the Indian landmass and improvement is also seen in the mean sea level pressure fields and cyclonic circulation associated with the depression at the 850-hPa level. The forecast results are further verified by computing the root-mean-square errors, and the difference in the skill scores between the two model runs are tested for their statistical significance. It is found that the Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme has a statistically significant effect on the model skill beyond 24 h, with maximum impact on mean sea level pressure and geopotential height. The performance of the Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme of convection has been investigated for prediction of the Indian monsoons. For this purpose a limited area numerical weather prediction model with two schemes of convection, one with the Betts-Miller scheme and other with the Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme, is run for five cases of monsoon depression that made landfall over the Indian coast. The results from the two schemes are compared. Detailed analyses of mean sea level pressure, wind, and rainfall have shown that the Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme has considerably improved the rainfall prediction over the indian landmass and improvement is also seen in the mean sea level pressure fields and cyclonic circulation associated with the depression at the 850-hPa level. The forecast results are further verified by computing the root-mean-square errors, and the difference in the skill scores between the two model runs are tested for their statistical significance. It is found that the Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme has a statistically significant effect on the model skill beyond 24 h, with maximum impact on mean sea level pressure and geopotential height

Thermodynamic adjustment parameters in the Betts-Miller scheme of convection

The sensitivity of the prediction of a monsoon depression to the adjustment parameters in a Betts-Miller scheme of deep convection is examined and an optimum parameter set is identified for the monsoon depression. For this purpose, a number of experiments have been carried out with a limited area model by assigning different values to the adjustment parameters, namely, the saturation pressure departure, the stability weight, and the adjustment time period. When one parameter is varied, the other two are kept constant. Results indicate that the depression track is sensitive to all three adjustment parameters. The upper-tropospheric temperature is sensitive to the stability weight and the rainfall rates are sensitive to the saturation pressure departure values. The rainfall shows minor sensitivity to the stability weight and the adjustment time period. A set of adjustment parameters that produced the best forecasts is taken as the optimum parameter set for the monsoon depression

Link between break/active phases of summer monsoon over India and China

An attempt has been made to examine the relationship between break/active phases of the Indian summer monsoon and rainfall activity over China. Twelve cases of active and fifteen cases of break phases during the Indian summer monsoon have been examined. Rainfall data over China from 'Asian Precipitation -Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of the Water Resources' have been used for this study. The amount and areal coverage of rainfall over China were examined during break/active phases of the Indian summer monsoon. It was found that during initiation of break phase in the Indian summer monsoon, rainfall amount and its areal coverage increased over China. The onset of its decrease marked the beginning of the end of the break phase. Exactly opposite trend was observed during the active monsoon phases. This study provides some clue about the end of the break or active phase, although it does not give any signal of initiation of break or active phase in monsoon

Selection for Replicases in Protocells

PMCID: PMC3649988This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited

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