La gestión de la sequía: contribuciones para su evaluación

La sequía afecta a todos los sectores de la sociedad y se espera que su frecuencia e intensidad aumente debido al cambio climático. Su gestión plantea importantes retos en el futuro. El enfoque de riesgo, que promueve una respuesta proactiva, se identifica como un marco de gestión apropiado que se está empezando a consolidar a nivel internacional. Sin embargo, es necesario contar con estudios sobre las características de la gestión de la sequía bajo este enfoque y sus implicaciones en la práctica. En esta tesis se evalúan diversos elementos que son relevantes para la gestión de la sequía, desde diferentes perspectivas, con especial énfasis en el componente social de la sequía. Para esta investigación se han desarrollado cinco estudios: (1) un análisis de las leyes de emergencia aprobadas durante la sequía 2005-2008 en España; (2) un estudio sobre la percepción de la sequía de los agricultores a nivel local; (3) una evaluación de las características y enfoque de gestión en seis casos de estudio a nivel europeo; (4) un análisis sistemático de los estudios de cuantificación de la vulnerabilidad a la sequía a nivel global; y (5) un análisis de los impactos de la sequía a partir en una base de datos europea. Los estudios muestran la importancia de la capacidad institucional como un factor que promueve y facilita la adopción del enfoque de riesgo. Al mismo tiempo, la falta de estudios de vulnerabilidad, el escaso conocimiento de los impactos y una escasa cultura de la evaluación post-sequía destacan como importantes limitantes para aprovechar el conocimiento que se genera en la gestión de un evento. A través del estudio de las leyes de sequía se evidencia la existencia de incoherencias entre cómo se define el problema de la sequía y las soluciones que se plantean, así como el uso de un discurso de securitización para perseguir objetivos más allá de la gestión de la sequía. El estudio de percepción permite identificar la existencia de diferentes problemas y percepciones de la sequía y muestra cómo los regantes utilizan principalmente los impactos para identificar y caracterizar la severidad de un evento, lo cual difiere de las definiciones predominantes a otros niveles de gestión. Esto evidencia la importancia de considerar la diversidad de definiciones y percepciones en la gestión, para realizar una gestión más ajustada a las necesidades de los diferentes sectores y colectivos. El análisis de la gestión de la sequía en seis casos de estudio a nivel europeo ha permitido identificar diferentes niveles de adopción del enfoque de riesgo en la práctica. El marco de análisis establecido, que se basa en seis dimensiones de análisis y 21 criterios, ha resultado ser una herramienta útil para diagnosticar los elementos que funcionan y los que es necesario mejorar en relación a la gestión del riesgo a la sequía. El análisis sistemático de los estudios de vulnerabilidad ha evidenciado la heterogeneidad en los marcos conceptuales utilizados así como debilidades en los factores de vulnerabilidad que se suelen incluir, en muchos casos derivada de la falta de datos. El trabajo sistemático de recolección de información sobre impactos de la sequía ha evidenciado la escasez de información sobre el tema a nivel europeo y la importancia de la gestión de la información. La base de datos de impactos desarrollada tiene un gran potencial como herramienta exploratoria y orientativa del tipo de impactos que produce la sequía en cada región, pero todavía presenta algunos retos respecto a su contenido, proceso de gestión y utilidad práctica. Existen importantes limitaciones vinculadas con el acceso y la disponibilidad de información y datos relevantes vinculados con la gestión de la sequía y todos sus componentes. La participación, los niveles de gestión, la perspectiva sectorial y las relaciones entre los componentes de gestión del riesgo considerados constituyen aspectos críticos que es necesario mejorar en el futuro. Así, los cinco artículos en su conjunto presentan ejemplos concretos que ayudan a conocer mejor la gestión de la sequía y que pueden resultar de utilidad para políticos, gestores y usuarios. ABSTRACT Drought affects all sectors and their frequency and intensity is expected to increase due to climate change. Drought management poses significant challenges in the future. Undertaking a drought risk management approach promotes a proactive response, and it is starting to consolidate internationally. However, it is still necessary to conduct studies on the characteristics of drought risk management and its practical implications. This thesis provides an evaluation of various relevant aspects of drought management from different perspectives and with special emphasis on the social component of droughts. For the purpose of this research a number of five studies have been carried out: (1) analysis of the emergency laws adopted during the 2005-2008 drought in Spain; (2) study of farmers perception of drought at a local level; (3) assessment of the characteristics and drought management issues in six case studies across Europe; (4) systematic analysis of drought vulnerability assessments; and (5) analysis of drought impacts from an European impacts text-based database. The results show the importance of institutional capacity as a factor that promotes and facilitates the adoption of a risk approach. In contrast, the following issues are identified as the main obstacles to take advantage of the lessons learnt: (1) lack of vulnerability studies, (2) limited knowledge about the impact and (3) limited availability of post-drought assessments Drought emergency laws evidence the existence of inconsistencies between drought problem definition and the measures proposed as solutions. Moreover, the securitization of the discourse pursue goals beyond management drought. The perception of drought by farmers helps to identify the existence of several definitions of drought. It also highlights the importance of impacts in defining and characterizing the severity of an event. However, this definition differs from the one used at other institutional and management level. As a conclusion, this remarks the importance of considering the diversity of definitions and perceptions to better tailor drought management to the needs of different sectors and stakeholders. The analysis of drought management in six case studies across Europe show different levels of risk adoption approach in practice. The analytical framework proposed is based on six dimensions and 21 criteria. This method has proven to be a useful tool in diagnosing the elements that work and those that need to be improved in relation to drought risk management. The systematic analysis of vulnerability assessment studies demonstrates the heterogeneity of the conceptual frameworks used. Driven by the lack of relevant data, the studies point out significant weaknesses of the vulnerabilities factors that are typically included The heterogeneity of the impact data collected at European level to build the European Drought Impact Reports Database (EDII) highlights the importance of information management. The database has great potential as exploratory tool and provides indicative useful information of the type of impacts that occurred in a particular region. However, it still presents some challenges regarding their content, the process of data collection and management and its usefulness. There are significant limitations associated with the access and availability of relevant information and data related to drought management and its components. The following improvement areas on critical aspects have been identified for the near future: participation, levels of drought management, sectorial perspective and in-depth assessment of the relationships between the components of drought risk management The five articles presented in this dissertation provides concrete examples of drought management evaluation that help to better understand drought management from a risk-based perspective which can be useful for policy makers, managers and users

Groundwater governance in the Rio Grande: Co-evolution of local and intergovernmental management

The physical interconnection of ground and surface waters is rarely acknowledged in inter-state and international agreements over surface water. This is especially true in the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo basin, where groundwater pumping is at the heart of several disputes and legal cases related to compliance with intergovernmental water agreements. This research considers the Upper and Middle Rio Grande basin to explore how groundwater use and management interact with interstate (i.e. intranational within the US) and international relations (US-Mexico). We consider three distinct geographic regions to address the following questions: how have intergovernmental surface water agreements affected local groundwater management and policies? And, how does groundwater management at local scale influence intergovernmental relations over water? We combine documentary data and interview data collected through extensive fieldwork during 2016 and 2017. The analysis reveals the emergence of both state-driven and community-based groundwater initiatives aimed at reconciling needs and obligations stemming from different geographical and institutional levels. The analysis uncovers strong institutional interplay across water management levels and suggests that compliance with intergovernmental agreements in federal and international contexts both affects and is affected by local groundwater management. Moreover, we observed that while local water managers are sometimes prevented from solving problems locally due to interstate rules, opportunities for innovation in local groundwater governance can also be triggered by compliance obligations at other levels

Groundwater governance in the Rio Grande: Co-evolution of local and intergovernmental management

The physical interconnection of ground and surface waters is rarely acknowledged in inter-state and international agreements over surface water. This is especially true in the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo basin, where groundwater pumping is at the heart of several disputes and legal cases related to compliance with intergovernmental water agreements. This research considers the Upper and Middle Rio Grande basin to explore how groundwater use and management interact with interstate (i.e. intranational within the US) and international relations (US-Mexico). We consider three distinct geographic regions to address the following questions: how have intergovernmental surface water agreements affected local groundwater management and policies? And, how does groundwater management at local scale influence intergovernmental relations over water? We combine documentary data and interview data collected through extensive fieldwork during 2016 and 2017. The analysis reveals the emergence of both state-driven and community-based groundwater initiatives aimed at reconciling needs and obligations stemming from different geographical and institutional levels. The analysis uncovers strong institutional interplay across water management levels and suggests that compliance with intergovernmental agreements in federal and international contexts both affects and is affected by local groundwater management. Moreover, we observed that while local water managers are sometimes prevented from solving problems locally due to interstate rules, opportunities for innovation in local groundwater governance can also be triggered by compliance obligations at other levels

Groundwater Governance in the Rio Grande: Co-evolution of Local and Intergovernmental Management

The physical interconnection of ground and surface waters is rarely acknowledged in inter-state and international agreements over surface water. This is especially true in the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo basin, where groundwater pumping is at the heart of several disputes and legal cases related to compliance with intergovernmental water agreements. This research considers the Upper and Middle Rio Grande basin to explore how groundwater use and management interact with interstate (i.e. intranational within the US) and international relations (US-Mexico). We consider three distinct geographic regions to address the following questions: how have intergovernmental surface water agreements affected local groundwater management and policies? And, how does groundwater management at local scale influence intergovernmental relations over water? We combine documentary data and interview data collected through extensive fieldwork during 2016 and 2017. The analysis reveals the emergence of both state-driven and community-based groundwater initiatives aimed at reconciling needs and obligations stemming from different geographical and institutional levels. The analysis uncovers strong institutional interplay across water management levels and suggests that compliance with intergovernmental agreements in federal and international contexts both affects and is affected by local groundwater management. Moreover, we observed that while local water managers are sometimes prevented from solving problems locally due to interstate rules, opportunities for innovation in local groundwater governance can also be triggered by compliance obligations at other levels

An Assessment Framework to Analyze Drought Management Plans: The Case of Spain

Droughts affect all socio-economic sectors and have negative impacts on the environment. Droughts are expected to increase in frequency and severity due to climate change, which makes their effective management a high priority for policy makers and water managers. Drought Management Plans (DMPs) are a key instrument to deal with droughts and help to prepare for them in a proactive way as a framework for coordinated action before and during droughts. The development of DMPs is still incipient worldwide and their assessment remains limited. In Spain, DMPs at a river basin level were first approved in 2007. Following the legal obligation set in Spanish law, those plans were revised after ten years and a new version was approved in 2018. A content analysis was developed for assessing the 2018 DMPs of eight river basins managed by their corresponding River Basin Authorities, which depend on the Spanish central government. The evaluation criteria were set using the extant scientific literature and official guidelines on drought preparedness and management. The analysis showed that some aspects of the DMPs are especially well-developed, e.g., the distinction between drought and water scarcity, the definition of thresholds to trigger different levels of drought and water scarcity alerts and actions for drought management and coordination. Other issues still need further improvement, especially those related to the analysis of drought impacts, the assessment of vulnerability and the ex-post evaluation of DPM performance

Los juegos del agua: el desafío de la gestión de las aguas subterráneas

El juego tiene una duración aproximada de 2,5 horas y ayuda a despertar el interés del alumnado sobre los retos del uso y gestión de las aguas subterráneas, haciéndoles por tanto receptivos a los contenidos teóricos relacionados que se explican en las clases siguientes (medidas de gestión del agua, normativa, etc.)

Impacts of European drought events: insights from an international database of text-based reports

Drought is a natural hazard that can cause a wide range of impacts affecting the environment, society, and the economy. Providing an impact assessment and reducing vulnerability to these impacts for regions beyond the local scale, spanning political and sectoral boundaries, requires systematic and detailed data regarding impacts. This study presents an assessment of the diversity of drought impacts across Europe based on the European Drought Impact report Inventory (EDII), a unique research database that has collected close to 5000 impact reports from 33 European countries. The reported drought impacts were classified into major impact categories, each of which had a number of subtypes. The distribution of these categories and types was then analyzed over time, by country, across Europe and for particular drought events. The results show that impacts on agriculture and public water supply dominate the collection of drought impact reports for most countries and for all major drought events since the 1970s, while the number and relative fractions of reported impacts in other sectors can vary regionally and from event to event. The analysis also shows that reported impacts have increased over time as more media and website information has become available and environmental awareness has increased. Even though the distribution of impact categories is relatively consistent across Europe, the details of the reports show some differences. They confirm severe impacts in southern regions (particularly on agriculture and public water supply) and sector-specific impacts in central and northern regions (e.g., on forestry or energy production). The protocol developed thus enabled a new and more comprehensive view on drought impacts across Europe. Related studies have already developed statistical techniques to evaluate the link between drought indices and the categorized impacts using EDII data. The EDII is a living database and is a promising source for further research on drought impacts, vulnerabilities, and risks across Europe. A key result is the extensive variety of impacts found across Europe and its documentation. This insight can therefore inform drought policy planning at national to international levels

Search for dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks in √s = 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for weakly interacting massive particle dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks is presented. Final states containing third-generation quarks and miss- ing transverse momentum are considered. The analysis uses 36.1 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data recorded by the ATLAS experiment at √s = 13 TeV in 2015 and 2016. No significant excess of events above the estimated backgrounds is observed. The results are in- terpreted in the framework of simplified models of spin-0 dark-matter mediators. For colour- neutral spin-0 mediators produced in association with top quarks and decaying into a pair of dark-matter particles, mediator masses below 50 GeV are excluded assuming a dark-matter candidate mass of 1 GeV and unitary couplings. For scalar and pseudoscalar mediators produced in association with bottom quarks, the search sets limits on the production cross- section of 300 times the predicted rate for mediators with masses between 10 and 50 GeV and assuming a dark-matter mass of 1 GeV and unitary coupling. Constraints on colour- charged scalar simplified models are also presented. Assuming a dark-matter particle mass of 35 GeV, mediator particles with mass below 1.1 TeV are excluded for couplings yielding a dark-matter relic density consistent with measurements

Traces of trauma – a multivariate pattern analysis of childhood trauma, brain structure and clinical phenotypes

Background: Childhood trauma (CT) is a major yet elusive psychiatric risk factor, whose multidimensional conceptualization and heterogeneous effects on brain morphology might demand advanced mathematical modeling. Therefore, we present an unsupervised machine learning approach to characterize the clinical and neuroanatomical complexity of CT in a larger, transdiagnostic context. Methods: We used a multicenter European cohort of 1076 female and male individuals (discovery: n = 649; replication: n = 427) comprising young, minimally medicated patients with clinical high-risk states for psychosis; patients with recent-onset depression or psychosis; and healthy volunteers. We employed multivariate sparse partial least squares analysis to detect parsimonious associations between combinations of items from the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire and gray matter volume and tested their generalizability via nested cross-validation as well as via external validation. We investigated the associations of these CT signatures with state (functioning, depressivity, quality of life), trait (personality), and sociodemographic levels. Results: We discovered signatures of age-dependent sexual abuse and sex-dependent physical and sexual abuse, as well as emotional trauma, which projected onto gray matter volume patterns in prefronto-cerebellar, limbic, and sensory networks. These signatures were associated with predominantly impaired clinical state- and trait-level phenotypes, while pointing toward an interaction between sexual abuse, age, urbanicity, and education. We validated the clinical profiles for all three CT signatures in the replication sample. Conclusions: Our results suggest distinct multilayered associations between partially age- and sex-dependent patterns of CT, distributed neuroanatomical networks, and clinical profiles. Hence, our study highlights how machine learning approaches can shape future, more fine-grained CT research