Deterministic and Stochastic Prisoner's Dilemma Games: Experiments in Interdependent Security

This paper examines experiments on interdependent security prisoner's dilemma games with repeated play. By utilizing a Bayesian hierarchical model, we examine how subjects make investment decisions as a function of their previous experience and their treatment condition. Our main findings are that individuals have differing underlying propensities to invest that vary across time, are affected by both the stochastic nature of the game and even more so by an individual's ability to learn about his or her counterpart's choices. Implications for individual decisions and the likely play of a person's counterpart are discussed in detail.

Flood magnitude-frequency and lithologic control on bedrock river incision in post-orogenic terrain

Mixed bedrock-alluvial rivers - bedrock channels lined with a discontinuous alluvial cover - are key agents in the shaping of mountain belt topography by bedrock fluvial incision. Whereas much research focuses upon the erosional dynamics of such rivers in the context of rapidly uplifting orogenic landscapes, the present study investigates river incision processes in a post-orogenic (cratonic) landscape undergoing extremely low rates of incision (> 5 m/Ma). River incision processes are examined as a function of substrate lithology and the magnitude and frequency of formative flows along Sandy Creek gorge, a mixed bedrock-alluvial stream in arid SE-central Australia. Incision is focused along a bedrock channel with a partial alluvial cover arranged into riffle-pool macrobedforms that reflect interactions between rock structure and large-flood hydraulics. Variations in channel width and gradient determine longitudinal trends in mean shear stress (τb) and therefore also patterns of sediment transport and deposition. A steep and narrow, non-propagating knickzone (with 5% alluvial cover) coincides with a resistant quartzite unit that subdivides the gorge into three reaches according to different rock erodibility and channel morphology. The three reaches also separate distinct erosional styles: bedrock plucking (i.e. detachment-limited erosion) prevails along the knickzone, whereas along the upper and lower gorge rock incision is dependent upon large formative floods exceeding critical erosion thresholds (τc) for coarse boulder deposits that line 70% of the channel thalweg (i.e. transport-limited erosion). The mobility of coarse bed materials (up to 2 m diameter) during late Holocene palaeofloods of known magnitude and age is evaluated using step-backwater flow modelling in conjunction with two selective entrainment equations. A new approach for quantifying the formative flood magnitude in mixed bedrock-alluvial rivers is described here based on the mobility of a key coarse fraction of the bed materials; in this case the d84 size fraction. A 350 m3/s formative flood fully mobilises the coarse alluvial cover with τb200-300 N/m2 across the upper and lower gorge riffles, peaking over 500 N/m2 in the knickzone. Such floods have an annual exceedance probability much less than 10- 2 and possibly as low as 10- 3. The role of coarse alluvial cover in the gorge is discussed at two scales: (1) modulation of bedrock exposure at the reach-scale, coupled with adjustment to channel width and gradient, accommodates uniform incision across rocks of different erodibility in steady-state fashion; and (2) at the sub-reach scale where coarse boulder deposits (corresponding to <i>τ</i><sub>b</sub> minima) cap topographic convexities in the rock floor, thereby restricting bedrock incision to rare large floods. While recent studies postulate that decreasing uplift rates during post-orogenic topographic decay might drive a shift to transport-limited conditions in river networks, observations here and elsewhere in post-orogenic settings suggest, to the contrary, that extremely low erosion rates are maintained with substantial bedrock channel exposure. Although bed material mobility is known to be rate-limiting for bedrock river incision under low sediment flux conditions, exactly how a partial alluvial cover might be spatially distributed to either optimise or impede the rate of bedrock incision is open to speculation. Observations here suggest that the small volume of very stable bed materials lining Sandy Creek gorge is distributed so as to minimise the rate of bedrock fluvial incision over time

The Extraction of Community Structures from Publication Networks to Support Ethnographic Observations of Field Differences in Scientific Communication

The scientific community of researchers in a research specialty is an important unit of analysis for understanding the field specific shaping of scientific communication practices. These scientific communities are, however, a challenging unit of analysis to capture and compare because they overlap, have fuzzy boundaries, and evolve over time. We describe a network analytic approach that reveals the complexities of these communities through examination of their publication networks in combination with insights from ethnographic field studies. We suggest that the structures revealed indicate overlapping sub- communities within a research specialty and we provide evidence that they differ in disciplinary orientation and research practices. By mapping the community structures of scientific fields we aim to increase confidence about the domain of validity of ethnographic observations as well as of collaborative patterns extracted from publication networks thereby enabling the systematic study of field differences. The network analytic methods presented include methods to optimize the delineation of a bibliographic data set in order to adequately represent a research specialty, and methods to extract community structures from this data. We demonstrate the application of these methods in a case study of two research specialties in the physical and chemical sciences.Comment: Accepted for publication in JASIS

Influence of chemical denudation on hillslope morphology

[1] Models of hillslope evolution involving diffusion-like sediment transport are conventionally presented as an equation in which the changes in land-surface elevation or soil thickness are balanced by the divergence of soil transport and tectonic uplift, soil production, or both. These models typically do not include the loss or gain of mass in hillslope soils due to processes of chemical weathering and deposition. We formulate a more general depth-integrated equation for the conservation of soil mass on a hillslope that includes a term representing chemical deposition or denudation. This general depth-integrated equation is then simplified to determine the one-dimensional form of a steady state hillslope which experiences both mechanical and chemical denudation. The differences in morphology between hillslopes only experiencing diffusion-like mechanical sediment transport and hillslopes experiencing both diffusion-like mechanical sediment transport and chemical denudation are explored. Under the conditions of a downslope increase in local soil lowering rate due to chemical weathering the hillslope profile will depart from the parabolic shape predicted by models that incorporate only linear diffusion-like mechanical sediment transport. In addition, hillslopes that experience both chemica

Elite Tweets: Analysing the Twitter Communication Patterns of Labour Party Peers in the House of Lords

The micro-blogging platform Twitter has gained notoriety for its status as both a communication channel between private individuals, and as a public forum monitored by journalists, the public, and the state. Its potential application for political communication has not gone unnoticed; politicians have used Twitter to attract voters, interact with constituencies and advance issue-based campaigns. This article reports on the preliminary results of the research team’s work with 21 peers sitting on the Labour frontbench. It is based on the monitoring and archival of the peers’ activity on Twitter for a period of 100 days from 16th May to 28th September 2012. Using a sample of more than 4,363 tweets and a mixed methodology combining semantic analysis, social network analysis and quantitative analysis, this paper explores the peers’ patterns of usage and communication on Twitter. Key findings are that as a tweeting community their behavior is consistent with others, however there is evidence that a coherent strategy is lacking. Labour peers tend to work in ego networks of self-interest as opposed to working together to promote party polic

Changing practice in dementia care in the community: developing and testing evidence-based interventions, from timely diagnosis to end of life (EVIDEM)

Background Dementia has an enormous impact on the lives of individuals and families, and on health and social services, and this will increase as the population ages. The needs of people with dementia and their carers for information and support are inadequately addressed at all key points in the illness trajectory. Methods The Unit is working specifically on an evaluation of the impact of the Mental Capacity Act 2005, and will develop practice guidance to enhance concordance with the Act. Phase One of the study has involved baseline interviews with practitioners across a wide range of services to establish knowledge and expectations of the Act, and to consider change processes when new policy and legislation are implemented. Findings Phase 1, involving baseline interviews with 115 practitioners, identified variable knowledge and understanding about the principles of the Act. Phase 2 is exploring everyday decision-making by people with memory problems and their carers