(Looking) Back to the Future: using space-time patterns to better predict the location of street crime

Crime analysts attempt to identify regularities in police recorded crime data with a central view of disrupting the patterns found. One common method for doing so is hotspot mapping, focusing attention on spatial clustering as a route to crime reduction (Chainey & Ratcliffe, 2005; Clarke & Eck, 2003). Despite the widespread use of this analytical technique, evaluation tools to assess its ability to accurately predict spatial patterns have only recently become available to practitioners (Chainey, Tompson, & Uhlig, 2008). Crucially, none has examined this issue from a spatio-temporal standpoint. Given that the organisational nature of policing agencies is shift based, it is common-sensical to understand crime problems at this temporal sensitivity, so there is an opportunity for resources to be deployed swiftly in a manner that optimises prevention and detection. This paper tests whether hotspot forecasts can be enhanced when time-of-day information is incorporated into the analysis. Using street crime data, and employing an evaluative tool called the Predictive Accuracy Index (PAI), we found that the predictive accuracy can be enhanced for particular temporal shifts, and this is primarily influenced by the degree of spatial clustering present. Interestingly, when hotspots shrank (in comparison with the all-day hotspots), they became more concentrated, and subsequently more predictable. This is meaningful in practice; for if crime is more predictable during specific timeframes, then response resources can be used intelligently to reduce victimisation

APFIC/FAO Regional Consultative Workshop: Securing sustainable small-scale fisheries: Bringing together responsible fisheries and social development, Windsor Suites Hotel, Bangkok, Thailand 68 October 2010

In the Global Overview, we attempt to view reefs in terms of the poor who are dependent on reefs for their livelihoods, how the reefs benefit the poor, how changes in the reef have impacted the lives of the poor and how the poor have responded and coped with these changes. It also considers wider responses to reef issues and how these interventions have impacted on the lives of the poor

A Semi-empirical Mass-loss Rate in Short-period Cataclysmic Variables

The mass-loss rate of donor stars in cataclysmic variables (CVs) is of paramount importance in the evolution of short-period CVs. Observed donors are oversized in comparison with those of isolated single stars of the same mass, which is thought to be a consequence of the mass loss. Using the empirical mass-radius relation of CVs and the homologous approximation for changes in effective temperature T_2, orbital period P, and luminosity of the donor with the stellar radius, we find the semi-empirical mass-loss rate M2_dot of CVs as a function of P. The derived M2_dot is at ~10^(-9.5)-10^(-10) Msun/yr and depends weakly on P when P > 90 min, while it declines very rapidly towards the minimum period when P < 90 min, emulating the P-T_2 relation. Due to strong deviation from thermal equilibrium caused by the mass loss, the semi-empirical M2_dot is significantly different from, and has a less-pronounced turnaround behavior with P than suggested by previous numerical models. The semi-empirical P-M2_dot relation is consistent with the angular momentum loss due to gravitational wave emission, and strongly suggests that CV secondaries with 0.075 Msun < M_2 < 0.2 Msun are less than 2 Gyrs old. When applied to selected eclipsing CVs, our semi-empirical mass-loss rates are in good agreement with the accretion rates derived from the effective temperatures T_1 of white dwarfs, suggesting that M2_dot can be used to reliably infer T_2 from T_1. Based on the semi-empirical M2_dot, SDSS 1501 and 1433 systems that were previously identified as post-bounce CVs have yet to reach the minimal period.Comment: 29 pages, 8 figures, 2 tables; accepted for publication in the Ap

The training of trainers for legal Interpreting and Translation

This chapter addresses the person specification, core skills, training curricula and monitoring of trainers of legal interpreters and translators

Sustainable Livelihoods Enhancement and Diversification (SLED): A Manual for Practitioners

The aim of this document is to provide development practitioners with an introduction to the SLED process as well as guidance for practitioners facilitating that process. The Sustainable Livelihoods Enhancement and Diversification (SLED) approach has been developed by Integrated Marine Management Ltd (IMM) through building on the lessons of past livelihoods research projects as well as worldwide experience in livelihood improvement and participatory development practice. It aims to provide a set of guidelines for development and conservation practitioners whose task it is to assist people in enhancing and diversifying their livelihoods. Under the Coral Reefs and Livelihoods Initiative (CORALI), this approach has been field tested and further developed in very different circumstances and institutional settings, in six sites across South Asia and Indonesia. While this process of testing and refining SLED has been carried out specifically in the context of efforts to manage coastal and marine resources, it is an approach that can be applied widely wherever natural resources are facing degradation because of unsustainable human use. The SLED approach provides a framework within which diverse local contexts and the local complexities of livelihood change can be accommodated

It is Time to Stop Talking and Start Doing: The Views of People with Learning Disability on Future Research

There is a need for people with learning disabilities to be involved in directing research to ensure that the research is meaningful to those it concerns. This paper describes a scoping exercise to determine the research priorities for the field of learning disabilities for the next ten years. It focuses specifically on the role of people with learning disabilities in setting this research agenda and describes the methodology used, which involved a series of consultation workshops. Analysis of the data from these generated six priority themes: access to health care; getting good support; the right to relationships; housing options; work and personal finance; inclusion in the community. The findings showed that it is possible for people with learning disabilities to participate in setting a research agenda and there was agreement between the different stakeholders on the fundamental priorities. Moreover, the inclusion of people with learning disabilities provided a perspective that could not be adequately represented by other stakeholder groups. People with learning disabilities were concerned that research has a meaningful impact and can lead to demonstrable improvements in care. In order for this to happen there is a need for widespread dissemination of accessible outputs that reach the relevant stakeholders