Generating social network data using partially described networks: an example informing avian influenza control in the British poultry industry

<p>Background: Targeted sampling can capture the characteristics of more vulnerable sectors of a population, but may bias the picture of population level disease risk. When sampling network data, an incomplete description of the population may arise leading to biased estimates of between-host connectivity. Avian influenza (AI) control planning in Great Britain (GB) provides one example where network data for the poultry industry (the Poultry Network Database or PND), targeted large premises and is consequently demographically biased. Exposing the effect of such biases on the geographical distribution of network properties could help target future poultry network data collection exercises. These data will be important for informing the control of potential future disease outbreaks.</p> <p>Results: The PND was used to compute between-farm association frequencies, assuming that farms sharing the same slaughterhouse or catching company, or through integration, are potentially epidemiologically linked. The fitted statistical models were extrapolated to the Great Britain Poultry Register (GBPR); this dataset is more representative of the poultry industry but lacks network information. This comparison showed how systematic biases in the demographic characterisation of a network, resulting from targeted sampling procedures, can bias the derived picture of between-host connectivity within the network.</p> <p>Conclusions: With particular reference to the predictive modeling of AI in GB, we find significantly different connectivity patterns across GB when network estimates incorporate the more demographically representative information provided by the GBPR; this has not been accounted for by previous epidemiological analyses. We recommend ranking geographical regions, based on relative confidence in extrapolated estimates, for prioritising further data collection. Evaluating whether and how the between-farm association frequencies impact on the risk of between-farm transmission will be the focus of future work.</p&gt

Temperature dependent infrared absorption, crystal-field and intensity analysis of Ce3+ Doped LiYF4

Infrared absorption has been used to determine the crystal-field levels of the 2F7=2 excited multiplet of trivalent cerium doped into scheelite structure LiYF4 single crystals. A crystal-field analysis well accounts for a total of six experimentally observed energy levels and the ground state g-values as previously determined by electron paramagnetic resonance, whilst intensity simulations confirm the experimentally assigned level symmetries. Temperature dependent spectral line broadening measurements highlight the importance of coupling to low frequency phonon modes of the YF8 tetrahedron

The Empirical Mass-Luminosity Relation for Low Mass Stars

This work is devoted to improving empirical mass-luminosity relations and mass-metallicity-luminosity relation for low mass stars. For these stars, observational data in the mass-luminosity plane or the mass-metallicity-luminosity space subject to non-negligible errors in all coordinates with different dimensions. Thus a reasonable weight assigning scheme is needed for obtaining more reliable results. Such a scheme is developed, with which each data point can have its own due contribution. Previous studies have shown that there exists a plateau feature in the mass-luminosity relation. Taking into account the constraints from the observational luminosity function, we find by fitting the observational data using our weight assigning scheme that the plateau spans from 0.28 to 0.50 solar mass. Three-piecewise continuous improved mass-luminosity relations in K, J, H and V bands, respectively, are obtained. The visual mass-metallicity-luminosity relation is also improved based on our K band mass-luminosity relation and the available observational metallicity data.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures. Accepted for publication in Astrophysics & Space Scienc

A multistate model of health transitions in older people: a secondary analysis of ASPREE clinical trial data

Background: Understanding the nature of transitions from a healthy state to chronic diseases and death is important for planning health-care system requirements and interventions. We aimed to quantify the trajectories of disease and disability in a population of healthy older people. Methods: We conducted a secondary analysis of data from the ASPREE trial, which was done in 50 sites in Australia and the USA and recruited community-dwelling, healthy individuals who were aged 70 years or older (≥65 years for Black and Hispanic people in the USA) between March 10, 2010, and Dec 24, 2014. Participants were followed up with annual face-to-face visits, biennial assessments of cognitive function, and biannual visits for physical function until death or June 12, 2017, whichever occurred first. We used multistate models to examine transitions from a healthy state to first intermediate disease events (ie, cancer events, stroke events, cardiac events, and physical disability or dementia) and, ultimately, to death. We also examined the effects of age and sex on transition rates using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Findings: 19 114 participants with a median age of 74·0 years (IQR 71·6–77·7) were included in our analyses. During a median follow-up of 4·7 years (IQR 3·6–5·7), 1933 (10·1%) of 19 114 participants had an incident cancer event, 487 (2·5%) had an incident cardiac event, 398 (2·1%) had an incident stroke event, 924 (4·8%) developed persistent physical disability or dementia, and 1052 (5·5%) died. 15 398 (80·6%) individuals did not have any of these events during follow-up. The highest proportion of deaths followed incident cancer (501 [47·6%] of 1052) and 129 (12·3%) participants transitioned from disability or dementia to death. Among 12 postulated transitions, transitions from the intermediate states to death had much higher rates than transitions from a healthy state to death. The progression rates to death were 158 events per 1000 person-years (95% CI 144–172) from cancer, 112 events per 1000 person-years (86–145) from stroke, 88 events per 1000 person-years (68–111) from cardiac disease, 69 events per 1000 person-years (58–82) from disability or dementia, and four events per 1000 person-years (4–5) from a healthy state. Age was significantly associated with an accelerated rate for most transitions. Male sex (vs female sex) was significantly associated with an accelerate rate for five of 12 transitions. Interpretation: We describe a multistate model in a healthy older population in whom the most common transition was from a healthy state to cancer. Our findings provide unique insights into the frequency of events, their transition rates, and the impact of age and sex. These results have implications for preventive health interventions and planning for appropriate levels of residential care in healthy ageing populations. Funding: The National Institutes of Health

Radiation damage in the LHCb vertex locator

The LHCb Vertex Locator (VELO) is a silicon strip detector designed to reconstruct charged particle trajectories and vertices produced at the LHCb interaction region. During the first two years of data collection, the 84 VELO sensors have been exposed to a range of fluences up to a maximum value of approximately 45 × 1012 1 MeV neutron equivalent (1 MeV neq). At the operational sensor temperature of approximately −7 °C, the average rate of sensor current increase is 18 μA per fb−1, in excellent agreement with predictions. The silicon effective bandgap has been determined using current versus temperature scan data after irradiation, with an average value of Eg = 1.16±0.03±0.04 eV obtained. The first observation of n+-on-n sensor type inversion at the LHC has been made, occurring at a fluence of around 15 × 1012 of 1 MeV neq. The only n+-on-p sensors in use at the LHC have also been studied. With an initial fluence of approximately 3 × 1012 1 MeV neq, a decrease in the Effective Depletion Voltage (EDV) of around 25 V is observed. Following this initial decrease, the EDV increases at a comparable rate to the type inverted n+-on-n type sensors, with rates of (1.43±0.16) × 10−12 V/ 1 MeV neq and (1.35±0.25) × 10−12 V/ 1 MeV neq measured for n+-on-p and n+-on-n type sensors, respectively. A reduction in the charge collection efficiency due to an unexpected effect involving the second metal layer readout lines is observed

The Dark Matter halo of the Milky Way, AD 2013

We derive the mass model of the Milky Way (MW) using a cored dark matter (DM) halo profile and recent data. The method used consists in fitting a spherically symmetric model of the Galaxy with a Burkert DM halo profile to available data: MW terminal velocities in the region inside the solar circle, circular velocity as recently estimated from maser star forming regions at intermediate radii, and velocity dispersions of stellar halo tracers for the outermost Galactic region. The latter are reproduced by integrating the Jeans equation for every modeled mass distribution, and by allowing for different velocity anisotropies for different tracer populations. For comparison we also consider a Navarro-Frenk-White profile. We find that the cored profile is the preferred one, with a shallow central density of rho_H~4x10^7M_s/kpc^3 and a large core radius R_H~10 kpc, as observed in external spirals and in agreement with the mass model underlying the Universal Rotation Curve of spirals. We describe also the derived model uncertainties, which are crucially driven by the poorly constrained velocity dispersion anisotropies of halo tracers. The emerging cored DM distribution has implications for the DM annihilation angular profile, which is much less boosted in the Galactic center direction with respect to the case of the standard \Lambda CDM, NFW profile. Using the derived uncertainties we discuss finally the limitations and prospects to discriminate between cored and cusped DM profile with a possible observed diffuse DM annihilation signal. The present mass model aims to characterize the present-day description of the distribution of matter in our Galaxy, which is needed to frame current crucial issues of Cosmology, Astrophysics and Elementary Particles

Associations of body size with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in healthy older adults

In the general population, body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference are recognized risk factors for several chronic diseases and all-cause mortality. However, whether these associations are the same for older adults is less clear. The association of baseline BMI and waist circumference with all-cause and cause-specific mortality was investigated in 18,209 Australian and US participants (mean age: 75.1 ± 4.5 years) from the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) study, followed up for a median of 6.9 years (IQR: 5.7, 8.0). There were substantially different relationships observed in men and women. In men, the lowest risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality was observed with a BMI in the range 25.0–29.9 kg/m2 [HR25-29.9 vs 21–24.9 kg/m2: 0.85; 95% CI, 0.73–1.00] while the highest risk was in those who were underweight [HRBMI <21 kg/m2 vs BMI 21–24.9 kg/m2: 1.82; 95% CI 1.30–2.55], leading to a clear U-shaped relationship. In women, all-cause mortality was highest in those with the lowest BMI leading to a J-shaped relationship (HRBMI <21 kg/m2 vs BMI 21–24.9 kg/m2: 1.64; 95% CI 1.26–2.14). Waist circumference showed a weaker relationship with all-cause mortality in both men and women. There was little evidence of a relationship between either index of body size and subsequent cancer mortality in men or women, while non-cardiovascular non-cancer mortality was higher in underweight participants. For older men, being overweight was found to be associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality, while among both men and women, a BMI in the underweight category was associated with a higher risk. Waist circumference alone had little association with all-cause or cause-specific mortality risk. Trial registration ASPREE https://ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT01038583.Prudence R. Carr, Katherine L. Webb, Johannes T. Neumann, Le T. P. Thao, Lawrence J. Beilin, Michael E. Ernst, Bernadette Fitzgibbon, Danijela Gasevic, Mark R. Nelson, Anne B. Newman, Suzanne G. Orchard, Alice Owen, Christopher M. Reid, Nigel P. Stocks, Andrew M. Tonkin, Robyn L. Woods, John J. McNei

A First Search for coincident Gravitational Waves and High Energy Neutrinos using LIGO, Virgo and ANTARES data from 2007

We present the results of the first search for gravitational wave bursts associated with high energy neutrinos. Together, these messengers could reveal new, hidden sources that are not observed by conventional photon astronomy, particularly at high energy. Our search uses neutrinos detected by the underwater neutrino telescope ANTARES in its 5 line configuration during the period January - September 2007, which coincided with the fifth and first science runs of LIGO and Virgo, respectively. The LIGO-Virgo data were analysed for candidate gravitational-wave signals coincident in time and direction with the neutrino events. No significant coincident events were observed. We place limits on the density of joint high energy neutrino - gravitational wave emission events in the local universe, and compare them with densities of merger and core-collapse events.Comment: 19 pages, 8 figures, science summary page at http://www.ligo.org/science/Publication-S5LV_ANTARES/index.php. Public access area to figures, tables at https://dcc.ligo.org/cgi-bin/DocDB/ShowDocument?docid=p120000

Search for a W' boson decaying to a bottom quark and a top quark in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV

Results are presented from a search for a W' boson using a dataset corresponding to 5.0 inverse femtobarns of integrated luminosity collected during 2011 by the CMS experiment at the LHC in pp collisions at sqrt(s)=7 TeV. The W' boson is modeled as a heavy W boson, but different scenarios for the couplings to fermions are considered, involving both left-handed and right-handed chiral projections of the fermions, as well as an arbitrary mixture of the two. The search is performed in the decay channel W' to t b, leading to a final state signature with a single lepton (e, mu), missing transverse energy, and jets, at least one of which is tagged as a b-jet. A W' boson that couples to fermions with the same coupling constant as the W, but to the right-handed rather than left-handed chiral projections, is excluded for masses below 1.85 TeV at the 95% confidence level. For the first time using LHC data, constraints on the W' gauge coupling for a set of left- and right-handed coupling combinations have been placed. These results represent a significant improvement over previously published limits.Comment: Submitted to Physics Letters B. Replaced with version publishe

Search for the standard model Higgs boson decaying into two photons in pp collisions at sqrt(s)=7 TeV

A search for a Higgs boson decaying into two photons is described. The analysis is performed using a dataset recorded by the CMS experiment at the LHC from pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV, which corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 4.8 inverse femtobarns. Limits are set on the cross section of the standard model Higgs boson decaying to two photons. The expected exclusion limit at 95% confidence level is between 1.4 and 2.4 times the standard model cross section in the mass range between 110 and 150 GeV. The analysis of the data excludes, at 95% confidence level, the standard model Higgs boson decaying into two photons in the mass range 128 to 132 GeV. The largest excess of events above the expected standard model background is observed for a Higgs boson mass hypothesis of 124 GeV with a local significance of 3.1 sigma. The global significance of observing an excess with a local significance greater than 3.1 sigma anywhere in the search range 110-150 GeV is estimated to be 1.8 sigma. More data are required to ascertain the origin of this excess.Comment: Submitted to Physics Letters