Simulation and Optimization of Solar Desalination Plant Using Aspen Plus Simulation Software

AbstractOf the total global water, 94% is salt water from the oceans and the remaining 6% is fresh. The shortage of fresh water is a problem that has continued to challenge third world countries, and over time has become increasingly evident in developed nations around the globe. With a combination of contributing issues such as overpopulation and changes in weather and climatic conditions, the demand for alternate approaches to fresh potable water supply has increased dramatically. The paper develops a computational model to simulate the performance of a small scale solar desalination plant. The model is validated with experimental results found in the literature. The validated model is used to optimize the functional parameters of a desalination plant and in turn, enhance the recovery rate and product quality of the system. The model is suitable for brackish and seawater desalting applications specific to the climatic conditions of coastal Queensland, Australia. Aspen Plus is the process simulation software that was used for the modelling. The outcomes of the study is a validated process simulation model of a small scale solar desalination plant, optimization of this model for better utilization of current technologies and methods of improving performance, efficiency and recovery and reducing operational limitations

Pyrolysis of municipal green waste: a modelling, simulation and experimental analysis

Pyrolysis is the thermo-chemical conversion of carbonaceous feedstock in the absence of oxygen to produce bio-fuel (bio-oil, bio-char and syn-gas). Bio-fuel production from municipal green waste (MGW) through the pyrolysis process has attracted considerable attention recently in the renewable energy sector because it can reduce greenhouse gas emissions and contribute to energy security. This study analyses properties of MGW feedstock available in Rockhampton city of Central Queensland, Australia, and presents an experimental investigation of producing bio-fuel from that MGW through the pyrolysis process using a short sealed rotary furnace. It was found from the experiment that about 19.97% bio-oil, 40.83% bio-char and 29.77% syn-gas can be produced from the MGW. Then, a four-stage steady state simulation model is developed for pyrolysis process performance simulation using Aspen Plus software. In the first stage, the moisture content of the MGW feed is reduced. In the second stage, the MGW is decomposed according to its elemental constituents. In the third stage, condensate material is separated and, finally, the pyrolysis reactions are modelled using the Gibbs free energy minimisation approach. The MGW\u27s ultimate and proximate analysis data were used in the Aspen Plus simulation as input parameters. The model is validated with experimentally measured data. A good agreement between simulation and experimental results was found. More specifically, the variation of modelling and experimental elemental compositions of the MGW was found to be 7.3% for carbon, 15.82% for hydrogen, 7.04% for nitrogen and 5.56% for sulphur. The validated model is used to optimise the biofuel production from the MGW as a function of operating variables such as temperature, moisture content, particle size and process heat air-fuel ratio. The modelling and optimisation results are presented, analysed and discussed

Thin-film fixed-bed reactor (TFFBR) for solar photocatalytic inactivation of aquaculture pathogen Aeromonas hydrophila

Background: Outbreaks of infectious diseases by microbial pathogens can cause substantial losses of stock in aquaculture systems. There are several ways to eliminate these pathogens including the use of antibiotics, biocides and conventional disinfectants, but these leave undesirable chemical residues. Conversely, using sunlight for disinfection has the advantage of leaving no chemical residue and is particularly suited to countries with sunny climates. Titanium dioxide (TiO2) is a photocatalyst that increases the effectiveness of solar disinfection. In recent years, several different types of solar photocatalytic reactors coated with TiO2 have been developed for waste water and drinking water treatment. In this study a thin-film fixed-bed reactor (TFFBR), designed as a sloping flat plate reactor coated with P25 DEGUSSA TiO2, was used. Results: The level of inactivation of the aquaculture pathogen Aeromonas hydrophila ATCC 35654 was determined after travelling across the TFFBR under various natural sunlight conditions (300- 1200 W m-2), at 3 different flow rates (4.8, 8.4 and 16.8 L h-1). Bacterial numbers were determined by conventional plate counting using selective agar media, cultured (i) under conventional aerobic conditions to detect healthy cells and (ii) under conditions designed to neutralise reactive oxygen species (agar medium supplemented with the peroxide scavenger sodium pyruvate at 0.05% w/v, incubated under anaerobic conditions), to detect both healthy and sub-lethally injured (oxygen-sensitive) cells. The results clearly demonstrate that high sunlight intensities (≥600 W m-2) and low flow rates (4.8 L h-1) provided optimum conditions for inactivation of A. hydrophila ATCC 3564, with greater overall inactivation and fewer sub-lethally injured cells than at low sunlight intensities or high flow rates. Low sunlight intensities resulted in reduced overall inactivation and greater sub-lethal injury at all flow rates.Conclusions: This is the first demonstration of the effectiveness of the TFFBR in the inactivation of Aeromonas hydrophila at high sunlight intensities, providing proof-of-concept for the application of solar photocatalysis in aquaculture systems

Feasibility of a Solar Thermal Power Plant in Pakistan

Pakistan has been facing an unprecedented energy crisis since the last few years. The problem becomes more severe throughout the year. The current energy shortage crisis has badly hit Pakistan’s economy where hundreds of industries have closed due to lack of electricity to fulfil their requirements. The energy supply and demand gap has risen to 5000 MW [1] and is expected to rise considerably in the coming years as shown in Figure 1. Table 1 shows the existing installed power generation in Pakistan. Pakistan has a huge potential in renewable energy especially solar energy to fill this gap if utilized properly. Pakistan, being in the Sun Belt, is ideally located to take advantage of solar energy technologies. This energy source is widely distributed and abundantly available in the country. Pakistan receives 4.45- 5.83 kWh/m2/day of global horizontal insolation as an annual mean value, with 5.30 kWh/m2/day over most areas of the country [2, 3]. This minimum level of solar radiation (4.45 kWh/m2/day) is higher than the world average of 3.61 kWh/m2/day [4] which shows that Pakistan lies in an excellent solar belt range. Pakistan has six main insolation measuring stations, namely Karachi, Islamabad, Lahore, Quetta, Peshawar and Multan and 37 observatories distributed fairly well over the entire country, recording sunshine hours as shown in Table A in Appendix. From the sunshine hours data it can be seen that most of the cities mentioned receive more than 250 sunshine hours a month. 2006 energy policy has resulted in few practical steps taken for utilizing the abundantly available solar resource in Pakistan. A Solar Water Heating System has installed in a Leather Industry for first time in Pakistan. The system, using 400 m2 Evacuated Collector tubes, provides heated water at 70 to 80 oC (at least 10 degree rise to the incoming water) to the already used boiler system, thus saving 33% of the cost. The Project was funded by Higher Education Commission (HEC) under University-Industry Technological Support Program (UITSP). Solar water heating technology is relatively mature technology in Pakistan but its higher capital cost compared to conventional gas heaters has limited its use so far. This technology is widely recommended by a number of public sector organizations in northern mountains where natural gas is limited and difficult. The solar water heaters are now being commercially produced in the private sector. More than 2000 low cost solar cookers are used in Pakistan for cooking purposes. Similarly, solar dryers are used in Gilgit and Skardu (Northern part of Pakistan) to dry large quantities of fruits such as apricot and transport and sell them later in the urban areas, thus bringing economic prosperity to the area. Fresh water unavailability in large parts of Baluchistan, Sind and southern Punjab is a critical issue. Two solar desalination plants consisting of 240 sills each with a capacity of 6000 gallons of seawater/day have been operational at Gawadar in Baluchistan province. A number of such schemes are under active consideration by local governments in Baluchistan and Thar [5]. The need for constructing solar power plants has been realized both at federal and provincial governments. The government of Sindh recently signed a Memorandum of Understanding with German company Azur Solar for building a 50 MW solar power plant at Dhabeji in District Thatta. The firm Azur Solar will initially set up a 60 kW solar power station to provide free electricity to backward 'goths' (Villages), schools and basic health centres of Badin. Both, technical and economical feasibility of a 50 MW solar thermal power plant using Stirling-Dish (SD) technology in Jacaobabad in Sindh Province of Pakistan is analysed in this chapter. The performance and environmental aspects of Stirling dish for power generation with and without solar energy is examined, discussed and compared. The solar data was collected from Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) of Pakistan and Life cycle cost analysis is performed to determine the economic feasibility of the solar thermal power plant. This study reveals that Jacobabad falls within the high solar energy belt and has minimum radiation energy of 4.45 kWh/m2/day (which is higher than the world average of 3.61 kWh/m2/day) to produce electricity, even during the low sunshine and cloudy days. The study concluded that solar thermal power plant in Pakistan is feasible using solar Stirling dish technology

Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017

A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic

The global, regional, and national burden of oesophageal cancer and its attributable risk factors in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2017

© 2020 The Author(s). Background Oesophageal cancer is a common and often fatal cancer that has two main histological subtypes: oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma and oesophageal adenocarcinoma. Updated statistics on the incidence and mortality of oesophageal cancer, and on the disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) caused by the disease, can assist policy makers in allocating resources for prevention, treatment, and care of oesophageal cancer. We report the latest estimates of these statistics for 195 countries and territories between 1990 and 2017, by age, sex, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD). Methods We used data from vital registration systems, vital registration-samples, verbal autopsy records, and cancer registries, combined with relevant modelling, to estimate the mortality, incidence, and burden of oesophageal cancer from 1990 to 2017. Mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) were estimated and fed into a Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) including risk factors. MIRs were used for mortality and non-fatal modelling. Estimates of DALYs attributable to the main risk factors of oesophageal cancer available in GBD were also calculated. The proportion of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma to all oesophageal cancers was extracted by use of publicly available data, and its variation was examined against SDI, the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index, and available risk factors in GBD that are specific for oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (eg, unimproved water source and indoor air pollution) and for oesophageal adenocarcinoma (gastro-oesophageal reflux disease). Findings There were 473 000 (95% uncertainty interval [95% UI] 459 000-485 000) new cases of oesophageal cancer and 436 000 (425 000-448 000) deaths due to oesophageal cancer in 2017. Age-standardised incidence was 5.9 (5.7-6.1) per 100 000 population and age-standardised mortality was 5.5 (5.3-5.6) per 100 000. Oesophageal cancer caused 9.78 million (9.53-10.03) DALYs, with an age-standardised rate of 120 (117-123) per 100 000 population. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised incidence decreased by 22.0% (18.6-25.2), mortality decreased by 29.0% (25.8-32.0), and DALYs decreased by 33.4% (30.4-36.1) globally. However, as a result of population growth and ageing, the total number of new cases increased by 52.3% (45.9-58.9), from 310 000 (300 000-322 000) to 473 000 (459 000-485 000); the number of deaths increased by 40.0% (34.1-46.3), from 311 000 (301 000-323 000) to 436 000 (425 000-448 000); and total DALYs increased by 27.4% (22.1-33.1), from 7.68 million (7.42-7.97) to 9.78 million (9.53-10.03). At the national level, China had the highest number of incident cases (235 000 [223 000-246 000]), deaths (213 000 [203 000-223 000]), and DALYs (4.46 million [4.25-4.69]) in 2017. The highest national-level agestandardised incidence rates in 2017 were observed in Malawi (23.0 [19.4-26.5] per 100 000 population) and Mongolia (18.5 [16.4-20.8] per 100 000). In 2017, age-standardised incidence was 2.7 times higher, mortality 2.9 times higher, and DALYs 3.0 times higher in males than in females. In 2017, a substantial proportion of oesophageal cancer DALYs were attributable to known risk factors: tobacco smoking (39.0% [35.5-42.2]), alcohol consumption (33.8% [27.3-39.9]), high BMI (19.5% [6.3-36.0]), a diet low in fruits (19.1% [4.2-34.6]), and use of chewing tobacco (7.5% [5.2-9.6]). Countries with a low SDI and HAQ Index and high levels of indoor air pollution had a higher proportion of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma to all oesophageal cancer cases than did countries with a high SDI and HAQ Index and with low levels of indoor air pollution. Interpretation Despite reductions in age-standardised incidence and mortality rates, oesophageal cancer remains a major cause of cancer mortality and burden across the world. Oesophageal cancer is a highly fatal disease, requiring increased primary prevention efforts and, possibly, screening in some high-risk areas. Substantial variation exists in age-standardised incidence rates across regions and countries, for reasons that are unclear

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019 : A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0–100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target—1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023—we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023. Findings Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2–47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7–61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9–3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010–2019 relative to 1990–2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6–421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0–3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5–1040·3]) residing in south Asia. Interpretation The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people—the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close—or how far—all populations are in benefiting from UHC

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017 : results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Correction:Background Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries. Methods We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Findings In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505). Interpretation Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.Peer reviewe