Evaluation of vaccine candidates for HIV prevention in Tanzania

Background: This thesis describes the capability of an HIV-1 DNA and HIV-1 modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) prime boost vaccination strategy to elicit immune responses known to correlate with reduced risk of HIV infection. Additionally, it describes the confounding effect of vaccine-induced HIV antibodies on the performance of HIV testing algorithms in sub-Saharan Africa, as well as the recruitment and preparation of a cohort of female sex workers (FSW) for potential participation in an HIV vaccine efficacy trial. Methods: Study I evaluated the capability of the HIV-DNA/MVA vaccine regimen to elicit potent and durable binding antibody responses to the V1V2 domain of HIV-1 gp120. Plasma samples collected at peak immunogenicity and three years later, were analyzed for frequency, magnitude and persistence of antibodies to gp70V1V2 proteins. Study II investigated whether addition of an envelope protein (CN54rgp140/GLA-AF) boost would increase anti- V1V2 responses elicited by the HIV-DNA/HIV-MVA vaccine. Study III assessed the impact of vaccine-induced seroreactivity on the performance of rapid test-based HIV diagnostic algorithms. The HIV diagnostic strategies of Mozambique and Tanzania were evaluated using samples collected from vaccine recipients in the HIVIS and TaMoVac clinical trials. Study IV assessed the suitability of FSW in Dar es Salaam for participation in a phase IIb HIV vaccine efficacy trial (PrEPVacc). HIV incidence, retention rate and risk behaviours were determined in a cohort of 700 FSW after one year of follow up. Results: Frequent and durable anti-V1V2 responses were elicited in the majority of the vaccine recipients. At peak immunogenicity, 97% of the vaccinees had binding IgG antibodies to the V1V2 loop of CRF01_AE A244. The anti-A244 V1V2 IgG persisted for at least three years in 75% of vaccinees and the response rate was improved by a late HIVMVA boost given three years after the second boost (study I). The CN54rgp140/GLA-AF boost did not enhance the V1V2 response (study II). The HIV diagnostic algorithms in sub- Saharan Africa misdiagnosed a substantial proportion of HIV vaccine recipients. More than half (54%) of the vaccinees would have been incorrectly identified as HIV infected in Tanzania, while, 26.3% would have been misclassified in Mozambique (study III). A high HIV incidence of 3.45 per 100 person years at risk was observed among FSW in the PrEPVacc preparedness study. The rate of HIV acquisition was higher among the young (18-24 years), drug using FSW, and those with syphilis or hepatitis infections (study IV). Conclusion: Priming with HIV-DNA followed by boosting with HIV-MVA elicited robust and durable anti-V1V2 responses in a majority of vaccinees. Boosting with a combination of CN54rgp140/GLA-AF and HIV-MVA did not augment anti-V1V2 responses elicited by HIV-DNA priming and HIV-MVA boosting. The current HIV testing algorithms in sub- Saharan Africa cannot sufficiently discriminate vaccine-induced seroreactivity from true HIV infection. Young FSW in Dar es Saalam are a suitable target population for HIV vaccine efficacy trials

The Prevalence, Incidence, and Risk Factors for HIV Among Female Sex Workers-A Cohort Being Prepared for a Phase IIb HIV Vaccine Trial in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: A cohort of female sex workers (FSWs) was established to determine HIV prevalence and incidence, and associated factors in preparation for a phase IIb HIV vaccine and pre-exposure prophylaxis trial (PrEPVacc). SETTING: A cohort of FSWs in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. METHODS: FSWs aged 18-45 years were recruited using a respondent-driven sampling method. Social demographic data, HIV risk behavioral assessments, and blood samples for testing of HIV, syphilis, hepatitis B (HBV), and hepatitis C (HCV) infections were collected at baseline and then at 3, 6, 9, and 12 months. Poisson regressions were used to estimate the prevalence ratios for factors associated with HIV prevalence and to estimate the 12-month HIV incidence rate. RESULTS: Between October and December 2018, a total of 773 FSWs were screened for eligibility and 700 were enrolled. The baseline prevalence of HIV, syphilis, HBV, and HCV was 7.6%, 1.2%, 1.7%, and 1.0%, respectively. HIV prevalence was associated with older age, using illicit drugs, and being infected with syphilis, HBV, or HCV. Attendance at 12 months was 80% (562/700). Twenty-one FSWs seroconverted during follow-up, giving a 12-month HIV incidence rate of 3.45 per 100 person-years at risk (95% CI; 2.25-5.28/100 person-years at risk). The HIV incidence rate was higher among FSWs aged 18-24 years, FSWs who used drugs, and those diagnosed with syphilis, HBV, or HCV. CONCLUSION: The high HIV incidence rate and retention rate among FSWs enrolled into the cohort demonstrate that this population is suitable for participation in HIV prevention trials

Impaired fasting glucose levels among perinatally HIV-infected adolescents and youths in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

ObjectiveThis study assessed impaired fasting glucose and associated factors among perinatally HIV-infected adolescents and youths in Dar es salaam Tanzania.BackgroundImpaired fasting glucose is a marker of heightened risk for developing type 2 diabetes among perinatally HIV-infected individuals. Therefore, identifying individuals at this stage is crucial to enable early intervention. Therefore, we assessed impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and associated factors among perinatally HIV-infected population in Dar es salaam Tanzania. MethodsA cross-sectional study was conducted among 152 adolescents and youth attending HIV clinic at Muhimbili National Hospital and Infectious Disease Centre from July to August 2020. Fasting blood glucose (>8 hours) was measured using one-touch selects LifeScan, CA, USA. We also examined C-Reactive Protein and interleukin-6 inflammatory biomarkers in relation to impaired fasting glucose (IFG). Associations between categorical variables were explored using Chi-square, and poison regression with robust variance was used to calculate the prevalence ratios.ResultsOf the 152 participants, the majority were male (n=83[54.6%]), and the median age was 15(14-18) years. Overweight or obesity was prevalent in 16.4%, while more than one in ten (13.2%) had high blood pressure (≥149/90mmHg). All participants were on antiretroviral therapy (ART); 46% had used medication for over ten years, and about one in three had poor medication adherence. Among the recruited participants, 29% had impaired fasting glucose. The odds of IFG were two times higher in males compared to females (PR, 2.07, 95% CI 1.19 -3.59 p=0.001). Moreover, we found with every increase of Interleukin 6 biomarker there was a 1.01 probability increase of impaired fasting glucose (PR, 1.01, 95% CI 1.00 – 1.02 p=0.003).ConclusionAbout one in three perinatally HIV-infected youths had impaired fasting glucose in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, with males bearing the biggest brunt. Moreover, with every increase of 1.101 of the probability of having IFG increased. This calls for urgent measures to interrupt the progression to diabetes disease and prevent the dual burden of disease for this uniquely challenged population

Systematic comparison of HIV-1 Envelope-specific IgG responses induced by different vaccination regimens: Can we steer IgG recognition towards regions of viral vulnerability?

Immunogens and vaccination regimens can influence patterns of immune-epitope recognition, steering them towards or away from epitopes of potential viral vulnerability. HIV-1 envelope (Env)-specific antibodies targeting variable region 2 (V2) or 3 (V3) correlated with protection during the RV144 trial, however, it was suggested that the immunodominant V3 region might divert antibody responses away from other relevant sites. We mapped IgG responses against linear Env epitopes in five clinical HIV vaccine trials, revealing a specific pattern of Env targeting for each regimen. Notable V2 responses were only induced in trials administering CRF01_AE based immunogens, but targeting of V3 was seen in all trials, with the soluble, trimeric CN54gp140 protein eliciting robust V3 recognition. Strong V3 targeting was linked to greater overall response, increased number of total recognised antigenic regions, and where present, stronger V2 recognition. Hence, strong induction of V3-specific antibodies did not negatively impact the targeting of other linear epitopes in this study, suggesting that the induction of antibodies against V3 and other regions of potential viral vulnerability need not be necessarily mutually exclusive

Systematic comparison of HIV-1 Envelope-specific IgG responses induced by different vaccination regimens: Can we steer IgG recognition towards regions of viral vulnerability?

Immunogens and vaccination regimens can influence patterns of immune-epitope recognition, steering them towards or away from epitopes of potential viral vulnerability. HIV-1 envelope (Env)-specific antibodies targeting variable region 2 (V2) or 3 (V3) correlated with protection during the RV144 trial, however, it was suggested that the immunodominant V3 region might divert antibody responses away from other relevant sites. We mapped IgG responses against linear Env epitopes in five clinical HIV vaccine trials, revealing a specific pattern of Env targeting for each regimen. Notable V2 responses were only induced in trials administering CRF01_AE based immunogens, but targeting of V3 was seen in all trials, with the soluble, trimeric CN54gp140 protein eliciting robust V3 recognition. Strong V3 targeting was linked to greater overall response, increased number of total recognised antigenic regions, and where present, stronger V2 recognition. Hence, strong induction of V3-specific antibodies did not negatively impact the targeting of other linear epitopes in this study, suggesting that the induction of antibodies against V3 and other regions of potential viral vulnerability need not be necessarily mutually exclusive

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019 : A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0–100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target—1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023—we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023. Findings Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2–47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7–61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9–3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010–2019 relative to 1990–2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6–421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0–3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5–1040·3]) residing in south Asia. Interpretation The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people—the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close—or how far—all populations are in benefiting from UHC

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0–100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target—1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023—we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023. Findings Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2–47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7–61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9–3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010–2019 relative to 1990–2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6–421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0–3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5–1040·3]) residing in south Asia. Interpretation The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people—the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close—or how far—all populations are in benefiting from UHC

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Examining oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) literacy among participants in an HIV vaccine trial preparedness cohort study

Background: PrEP literacy is influenced by many factors including the types of information available and how it is interpreted. The level of PrEP literacy may influence acceptability and uptake. Methods: We conducted 25 in-depth interviews in a HIV vaccine trial preparedness cohort study. We explored what participants knew about PrEP, sources of PrEP knowledge and how much they know about PrEP. We used the framework approach to generate themes for analysis guided by the Social Ecological Model and examined levels of PrEP literacy using the individual and interpersonal constructs of the SEM. Results: We found that PrEP awareness is strongly influenced by external factors such as social media and how much participants know about HIV treatment and prevention in the local community. However, while participants highlighted the importance of the internet/social media as a source of information about PrEP they talked of low PrEP literacy in their communities. Participants indicated that their own knowledge came as a result of joining the HIV vaccine trial preparedness study. However, some expressed doubts about the effectiveness of the drug and worried about side effects. Participants commented that at the community level PrEP was associated with being sexually active, because it was used to prevent the sexual transmission of HIV. As a result, some participants commented that one could feel judged by the health workers for asking for PrEP at health facilities in the community. Conclusion: The information collected in this study provided an understanding of the different layers of influence around individuals that are important to address to improve PrEP acceptability and uptake. Our findings can inform strategies to address the barriers to PrEP uptake, particularly at structural and community levels. Trial registration: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT0406688