Análise da Curva de Juros Reais no Brasil

Este trabalho analisa o histórico da estrutura a termo de juros reais, obtida através do modelo de Svensson e disponibilizada pela Associação Brasileira das Entidades do Mercado Financeiro e de Capitais (ANBIMA). Tal curva é de grande valia no mercado e possui diversas aplicações, tais como a realização de teste de adequação de passivos para a indústria seguradora, estimativa da inflação esperada (IPCA) ou mesmo a marcação de títulos a mercado. A partir de uma análise histórica, considerando dados diários de fechamento de 21/09/2009 a 28/06/2019, identificamos algumas discrepâncias que precisam ser reconhecidas e discutidas. Há uma sensibilidade exagerada do modelo a períodos de instabilidade política e erros não desprezíveis na estimativa de taxas de curto prazo, bem como uma volatilidade exagerada nas taxas de longo prazo. Tais observações sugerem cautela aos entes do mercado que utilizam a curva. Existem variações abruptas nos parâmetros, bem como taxas de curtíssimo prazo negativas muitas vezes, algo totalmente fora da realidade brasileira. Foram observadas também taxas com volatilidade acima do previsto em teoria, trazendo incertezas para os participantes do mercado

The impact of an intervention to introduce malaria rapid diagnostic tests on fever case management in a high transmission setting in Uganda: A mixed-methods cluster-randomized trial (PRIME).

Rapid diagnostic tests for malaria (mRDTs) have been scaled-up widely across Africa. The PRIME study evaluated an intervention aiming to improve fever case management using mRDTs at public health centers in Uganda. A cluster-randomized trial was conducted from 2010-13 in Tororo, a high malaria transmission setting. Twenty public health centers were randomized in a 1:1 ratio to intervention or control. The intervention included training in health center management, fever case management with mRDTs, and patient-centered services; plus provision of mRDTs and artemether-lumefantrine (AL) when stocks ran low. Three rounds of Interviews were conducted with caregivers of children under five years of age as they exited health centers (N = 1400); reference mRDTs were done in children with fever (N = 1336). Health worker perspectives on mRDTs were elicited through semi-structured questionnaires (N = 49) and in-depth interviews (N = 10). The primary outcome was inappropriate treatment of malaria, defined as the proportion of febrile children who were not treated according to guidelines based on the reference mRDT. There was no difference in inappropriate treatment of malaria between the intervention and control arms (24.0% versus 29.7%, adjusted risk ratio 0.81 95\% CI: 0.56, 1.17 p = 0.24). Most children (76.0\%) tested positive by reference mRDT, but many were not prescribed AL (22.5\% intervention versus 25.9\% control, p = 0.53). Inappropriate treatment of children testing negative by reference mRDT with AL was also common (31.3\% invention vs 42.4\% control, p = 0.29). Health workers appreciated mRDTs but felt that integrating testing into practice was challenging given constraints on time and infrastructure. The PRIME intervention did not have the desired impact on inappropriate treatment of malaria for children under five. In this high transmission setting, use of mRDTs did not lead to the reductions in antimalarial prescribing seen elsewhere. Broader investment in health systems, including infrastructure and staffing, will be required to improve fever case management

Host non-inflammatory neutrophils mediate the engraftment of bioengineered vascular networks

Notwithstanding remarkable progress in vascular network engineering, implanted bioengineered microvessels largely fail to form anastomoses with the host vasculature. Here, we demonstrate that implants containing assembled human vascular networks (A-Grafts) fail to engraft due to their inability to engage non-inflammatory host neutrophils upon implantation into mice. In contrast, unassembled vascular cells (U-Grafts) readily engage alternatively polarized neutrophils, which in turn serve as indispensable mediators of vascular assembly and anastomosis. The depletion of host neutrophils abrogated vascularization in U-Grafts, whereas an adoptive transfer of neutrophils fully restored vascularization in myeloid-depleted mice. Neutrophil engagement was regulated by secreted factors and was progressively silenced as the vasculature matured. Exogenous addition of factors from U-Grafts reengaged neutrophils and enhanced revascularization in A-Grafts, a process that was recapitulated by blocking Notch signaling. Our data suggest that the pro-vascularization potential of neutrophils can be harnessed to improve the engraftment of bioengineered tissues

Lipoprotein‐Associated Phospholipase A2 Activity Is a Marker of Risk But Not a Useful Target for Treatment in Patients With Stable Coronary Heart Disease

Background: We evaluated lipoprotein‐associated phospholipase A2 (Lp‐PLA2) activity in patients with stable coronary heart disease before and during treatment with darapladib, a selective Lp‐PLA2 inhibitor, in relation to outcomes and the effects of darapladib in the STABILITY trial. Methods and Results: Plasma Lp‐PLA2 activity was determined at baseline (n=14 500); at 1 month (n=13 709); serially (n=100) at 3, 6, and 18 months; and at the end of treatment. Adjusted Cox regression models evaluated associations between Lp‐PLA2 activity levels and outcomes. At baseline, the median Lp‐PLA2 level was 172.4 μmol/min per liter (interquartile range 143.1–204.2 μmol/min per liter). Comparing the highest and lowest Lp‐PLA2 quartile groups, the hazard ratios were 1.50 (95% CI 1.23–1.82) for the primary composite end point (cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke), 1.95 (95% CI 1.29–2.93) for hospitalization for heart failure, 1.42 (1.07–1.89) for cardiovascular death, and 1.37 (1.03–1.81) for myocardial infarction after adjustment for baseline characteristics, standard laboratory variables, and other prognostic biomarkers. Treatment with darapladib led to a ≈65% persistent reduction in median Lp‐PLA2 activity. There were no associations between on‐treatment Lp‐PLA2 activity or changes of Lp‐PLA2 activity and outcomes, and there were no significant interactions between baseline and on‐treatment Lp‐PLA2 activity or changes in Lp‐PLA2 activity levels and the effects of darapladib on outcomes. Conclusions: Although high Lp‐PLA2 activity was associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events, pharmacological lowering of Lp‐PLA2 activity by ≈65% did not significantly reduce cardiovascular events in patients with stable coronary heart disease, regardless of the baseline level or the magnitude of change of Lp‐PLA2 activity

Enabling and Enhancing Science Exploration Across the Solar System: Aerocapture Technology for SmallSat to Flagship Missions

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TESS Giants Transiting Giants. I.: A Noninflated Hot Jupiter Orbiting a Massive Subgiant

While the population of confirmed exoplanets continues to grow, the sample of confirmed transiting planets around evolved stars is still limited. We present the discovery and confirmation of a hot Jupiter orbiting TOI-2184 (TIC 176956893), a massive evolved subgiant (M ∗ = 1.53 ± 0.12 M o˙, R ∗ = 2.90 ± 0.14 R o˙) in the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) Southern Continuous Viewing Zone. The planet was flagged as a false positive by the TESS Quick-Look Pipeline due to periodic systematics introducing a spurious depth difference between even and odd transits. Using a new pipeline to remove background scattered light in TESS Full Frame Image data, we combine space-based TESS photometry, ground-based photometry, and ground-based radial velocity measurements to report a planet radius of R p = 1.017 ± 0.051 R J and mass of M p = 0.65 ± 0.16 M J . For a planet so close to its star, the mass and radius of TOI-2184b are unusually well matched to those of Jupiter. We find that the radius of TOI-2184b is smaller than theoretically predicted based on its mass and incident flux, providing a valuable new constraint on the timescale of post-main-sequence planet inflation. The discovery of TOI-2184b demonstrates the feasibility of detecting planets around faint (TESS magnitude > 12) post-main-sequence stars and suggests that many more similar systems are waiting to be detected in the TESS FFIs, whose confirmation may elucidate the final stages of planetary system evolution

Consistent patterns of common species across tropical tree communities

Trees structure the Earth’s most biodiverse ecosystem, tropical forests. The vast number of tree species presents a formidable challenge to understanding these forests, including their response to environmental change, as very little is known about most tropical tree species. A focus on the common species may circumvent this challenge. Here we investigate abundance patterns of common tree species using inventory data on 1,003,805 trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm across 1,568 locations1,2,3,4,5,6 in closed-canopy, structurally intact old-growth tropical forests in Africa, Amazonia and Southeast Asia. We estimate that 2.2%, 2.2% and 2.3% of species comprise 50% of the tropical trees in these regions, respectively. Extrapolating across all closed-canopy tropical forests, we estimate that just 1,053 species comprise half of Earth’s 800 billion tropical trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm. Despite differing biogeographic, climatic and anthropogenic histories7, we find notably consistent patterns of common species and species abundance distributions across the continents. This suggests that fundamental mechanisms of tree community assembly may apply to all tropical forests. Resampling analyses show that the most common species are likely to belong to a manageable list of known species, enabling targeted efforts to understand their ecology. Although they do not detract from the importance of rare species, our results open new opportunities to understand the world’s most diverse forests, including modelling their response to environmental change, by focusing on the common species that constitute the majority of their trees.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019 : A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0–100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target—1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023—we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023. Findings Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2–47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7–61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9–3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010–2019 relative to 1990–2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6–421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0–3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5–1040·3]) residing in south Asia. Interpretation The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people—the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close—or how far—all populations are in benefiting from UHC

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0–100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target—1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023—we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023. Findings Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2–47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7–61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9–3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010–2019 relative to 1990–2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6–421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0–3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5–1040·3]) residing in south Asia. Interpretation The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people—the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close—or how far—all populations are in benefiting from UHC