Epidemiological features of brucellosis and factors affecting its treatment failure and relapse in Qom Province, Iran

Background: Brucellosis is one of the major health problems in many areas of the world, especially in the Mediterranean and the Middle East regions.Objective: To determine the epidemiological characteristics, clinical signs, and risk factors of relapse rate in patients with brucellosis, Qom Province, Iran.Methods: A descriptive-analytic study was conducted on 410 confirmed brucellosis cases in Qom Province, central Iran, from 2015 to 2019, based on epidemiological checklists and according to the Iran Ministry of Health and Medical Education (MOHME). Univariate and multiple logistic regression analyses were conducted using Stata software version 14.Results: The relapse rate of brucellosis was 6.6% until nine months after s arting the treatment, and all recurrent cases were infected by Brucella melitensis. Based on univariate logistic regression analysis, the delayed treatment and type species of Brucella were significant factors affecting the relapse of brucellosis. The relapse rates were 5.4%, 6.2%, and 20.0% in patients whose delayed treatments were <50, 51-150, and >151days, respectively. Based on the multiple logistic regression, it was observed that delayed treatment >50 days increased the rate of relapse more than four times.Conclusion: The delayed initiation of treatment was a significant factor influencing the relapse of brucellosis; therefore, it is necessary to provide enough diagnostic and laboratory facilities, and people need to be educated about the signs and symptoms of the disease

Global, regional, and national cancer incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-Adjusted life-years for 29 cancer groups, 1990 to 2017 : A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study

Importance: Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data. Objective: To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning. Evidence Review: We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-Adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence. Findings: In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs). Conclusions and Relevance: The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care. © 2019 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.Peer reviewe

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Moth flame-random search optimization of a zero-dimensional model of a proton exchange membrane fuel cell

Modelling of proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) is important for better understanding, simulation, and design of high-efficiency fuel cell systems. PEMFC models are often multivariate with several nonlinear elements. Metaheuristic algorithms that are successful in solving nonlinear optimization problems are good candidates for this purpose. This study proposes a new metaheuristic algorithm called MFORS that uses the advantages of the moth-flame optimization algorithm in global search and the non-deterministic properties of the random search algorithm to identify the optimal parameters of the PEMFC model. The sum of squared errors between the estimated and measured voltage is a quality of fit criterion. To show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm, two case studies of zero-dimensional models of SR-12 Modular PEM Generator and Ballard Mark V fuel cell are considered. The sum of squared errors for the parameter estimated of electrical PEMFCs by the proposed MFORS algorithm is compared with recent works. The results showed that by the MFORS algorithm, the minimum sum of absolute errors of the actual stack voltage and the simulated stack voltage in the two PEMFC are 0.095037 and 0.018019, compared with the second-best algorithm results giving 0.09681 and 0.8092, respectively

Internet Addiction and Modeling its Risk Factors in Medical Students, Iran

Background : Today′s internet is a usual and common method for identifying and fulfilling unknown practices. Internet network has been prepared rapid and comfortable access to information. Internet addiction is a new and attractive subject that has been regarded as behavior-based addiction recently. Purpose : To estimate the prevalence of internet addiction and some of the related factors among medical students, Iran. Materials and Methods : An analytical cross-sectional study was conducted on 426 students selected through two-stage sampling method. Yang standard internet addiction questionnaire was used for data collection. After data entry, χ 2 , t-test, and Pearson coefficient statistical tests were applied. 0.05 was considered as the significance level. Results : The overall prevalence of internet addiction was 10.8%, with moderate and severe internet addiction equal to 8% and 2.8%, respectively. Mean and standard deviation of Yang internet addiction score was calculated as 32.74±14.52. Internet addiction was associated with sex, marital status, father′s job, rate of knowledge about computer and internet, and educational level (P0.05). Conclusion : Because internet addiction leads to wasting of the students′ leisure time and also useful time, it affects the educational situation inversely. Some measures should be taken to plan and improve the use of internet

Survival Rate of Childhood Leukemia in Shiraz, Southern Iran

Objective: Leukemia is the most prevalent type of cancer in children. The aim of this study was to estimate the 5-year survival rates of Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia (ALL) and Acute Myeloblastic Leukemia (AML) as well as factors influencing them. Methods: This is a nonrandomized retrospective study conducted on 280 patients with ALL and AML. They were all below 15 years old children admitted to Shahid Faghihi hospital, Shiraz, Iran from 2004 to 2008.The survival rates were estimated by applying the Kaplan-Meier method. In addition, the log rank test was used to estimate the statistical significance of differences in the survival probability. Cox regression model was applied to conduct multivariate analysis for adjusting confounding variable. All analyses were performed in SPSS statistical software (version 16). P-values less than 0.05 were considered as statistically significant. Findings: The mean (± standard deviation) of the observation period was 28.2±16.1 months. In this period, 60 (24.7%) patients (47 ALL and 15 AML) passed away. The cumulative rate of survival in this study was 53.3±0.1 percent. This probability was 56.6±0.1% and 44.2±0.1% for ALL and AML patients, respectively, which indicates no statistically significant difference between them (P=0.8). According to Cox model, there was a significant relationship among the variables of platelet count and relapse with the survival rate. Conclusion: Platelet count was identified as a positive prognostic factor of the survival rate in ALL patients. However, on the base of our results and other studies, incidence of relapse and the number of relapses are significant factors of survival rates of leukemia

A Comparison between Conventional and Video Methods of Health Education on Improvement of Oral Health in Elementary School Students of Qomrood Village, 2018, (Iran)

Background and Objectives: Oral and dental diseases are one of the most important problems of today’s society. To reduce the cost and outcomes of these diseases, prevention and control of plaque is of high importance. This study aimed to determine the effectiveness of conventional and video education methods on children’s dental health.   Methods: This interventional study was performed on 66 male elementary school students in Qomrood village in 2018. The students were randomly assigned to one of the two groups of conventional and video education methods. The amount of plaque index and bleeding on probing (BOP), were recorded in checklist before and after 2 weeks of education. The data were analyzed by independent and paired t-tests.   Results: In the conventional group, the mean plaque index before the intervention was reported to be 58.66±16.95 and after intervention 18.60±10.76; also, the mean BOP was 1.28±1.97 before intervention and 0.16±0.46 after intervention. In video education group, the mean plaque index before the intervention was 53.84±14.08 and after intervention 19.29±10.91, and the mean BOP was obtained 1.68±3.71 before intervention and 0.31±0.76 after intervention. The result of paired samples t-test showed the changes of both group were significant, but the result of independent samples t-test, there was no significant difference between the changes of the two groups.   Conclusion: According to the results of this research, both methods of conventional education and video education have significant effect on reduction of plaque index and BOP, but, there is no significant difference between the effectiveness of these methods