7 research outputs found
Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- Author
- Abbafati Cristiana
- Abbas Kaja M.
- Abbasi Mohammad
- Abbasi-Kangevari Mohsen
- Abbasifard Mitra
- Abbastabar Hedayat
- Abd-Allah Foad
- Abdelalim Ahmed
- Abdollahi Mohammad
- Abdollahpour Ibrahim
- Abedi Aidin
- Abedi Parisa
- Abegaz Kedir H.
- Abolhassani Hassan
- Abosetugn Akine E.
- Aboyans Victor
- Abrams Elissa M.
- Abreu Lucas G.
- Abrigo Michael R. M.
- Abu Haimed Abdulaziz K.
- Abu-Gharbieh Eman
- Abu-Raddad Laith J.
- Abualhasan Ahmed
- Abushouk Abdelrahman I.
- Acebedo Alyssa
- Ackerman Ilana N.
- Adabi Maryam
- Adair Tim
- Adamu Abdu A.
- Adebayo Oladimeji M.
- Adedeji Isaac A.
- Adekanmbi Victor
- Adelson Jaimie D.
- Adeoye Abiodun M.
- Adetokunboh Olatunji O.
- Adham Davoud
- Advani Shailesh M.
- Afarideh Mohsen
- Afshari Mahdi
- Afshin Ashkan
- Agardh Emilie E.
- Agarwal Gina
- Agasthi Pradyumna
- Agesa Kareha M.
- Aghaali Mohammad
- Aghamir Seyed M.
- Agrawal Anurag
- Ahmad Tauseef
- Ahmadi Alireza
- Ahmadi Keivan
- Ahmadi Mehdi
- Ahmadieh Hamid
- Ahmadpour Ehsan
- Ahmed Muktar B.
- Aji Budi
- Akalu Temesgen Y.
- Akinyemi Rufus O.
- Akinyemiju Tomi
- Akombi Blessing J.
- Akunna Chisom J.
- Al-Aly Ziyad
- Al-Mekhlaf Hesham M.
- Al-Raddadi Rajaa
- Alahdab Fares
- Alam Khurshid
- Alam Noore
- Alam Samiah
- Alam Tahiya
- Alanezi Fahad M.
- Alanzi Turki M.
- Albertson Samuel B.
- Alcalde-Rabanal Jacqueline E.
- Alema Niguse M.
- Alemu Biresaw W.
- Alemu Yihun M.
- Alhabib Khalid F.
- Alhassan Robert K.
- Ali Muhammad
- Ali Saqib
- Alicandro Gianfranco
- Alijanzadeh Mehran
- Alinia Cyrus
- Alipour Vahid
- Alizade Hesam
- Aljunid Syed M.
- Alla François
- Allebeck Peter
- Almadi Majid A.
- Almasi Ali
- Almasi-Hashiani Amir
- Almasri Nihad A.
- Almulhim Abdulaziz M.
- Alonso Jordi
- Altirkawi Khalid A.
- Alumran Arwa K.
- Alvis-Guzman Nelson
- Alvis-Zakzuk Nelson J.
- Amare Azmeraw T.
- Amare Bekalu
- Amini Saeed
- Amini-Rarani Mostafa
- Aminorroaya Arya
- Amiri Fatemeh
- Amit Arianna M.
- Amugsi Dickson A.
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- Ancuceanu Robert
- Anderlini Deanna
- Anderson Jason A.
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- Prakash Sanjay
- Prakash V.
- Prasad Narayan
- Preotescu Liliana
- Pribadi Dimas R.
- Pupillo Elisabetta
- Quazi Syed Zahiruddin
- Rabiee Mohammad
- Rabiee Navid
- Radfar Amir
- Rafiee Ata
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- Rahim Fakher
- Rahimi-Movaghar Afarin
- Rahman Mohammad H.
- Rahman Muhammad A.
- Rajabpour-Sanati Ali
- Rajati Fatemeh
- Rakovac Ivo
- Ram Pradhum
- Ramezanzadeh Kiana
- Rana Saleem M.
- Ranabhat Chhabi L.
- Ranta Annemarei
- Rao Puja C.
- Rao Sowmya J.
- Rasella Davide
- Rashedi Vahid
- Rastogi Prateek
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- Rathi Priya
- Rawaf David L.
- Rawaf Salman
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- Reiner Robert C.
- Reinig Nickolas
- Reitsma Marissa B.
- Remuzzi Giuseppe
- Renjith Vishnu
- Renzaho Andre M. N. (R17978)
- Ärnlöv Johan
- Øverland Simon
- Publication venue
- 'Elsevier BV'
- Publication date
- 01/01/2020
- Field of study
Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019.
Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019
Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- Author
- Abbafati Cristiana
- Abbas Kaja M.
- Abbasi Mohammad
- Abbasi-Kangevari Mohsen
- Abbasifard Mitra
- Abbastabar Hedayat
- Abd El Razek Hassan Magdy
- Abd El Razek Muhammed Magdy
- Abd-Allah Foad
- Abdelalim Ahmed
- Abdollahi Mohammad
- Abdollahpour Ibrahim
- Abdulkader Rizwan Suliankatchi
- Abdullah Kanaan Hamagharib
- Abedi Aidin
- Abedi Parisa
- Abegaz Kedir Hussein
- Abolhassani Hassan
- Abosetugn Akine Eshete
- Aboyans Victor
- Abrams Elissa M.
- Abreu Lucas Guimaraes
- Abrigo Michael R. M.
- Abu Haimed Abdulaziz Khalid
- Abu-Gharbieh Eman
- Abu-Raddad Laith Jamal
- Abualhasan Ahmed
- Abushouk Abdelrahman I.
- Acebedo Alyssa
- Ackerman Ilana N.
- Adabi Maryam
- Adair Tim
- Adamu Abdu A.
- Adebayo Oladimeji M.
- Adedeji Isaac Akinkunmi
- Adekanmbi Victor
- Adelson Jaimie D.
- Adeoye Abiodun Moshood
- Adetokunboh Olatunji O.
- Adham Davoud
- Advani Shailesh M.
- Afarideh Mohsen
- Afshari Mahdi
- Afshin Ashkan
- Agardh Emilie E.
- Agarwal Gina
- Agasthi Pradyumna
- Agesa Kareha M.
- Aghaali Mohammad
- Aghamir Seyed Mohammad Kazem
- Agrawal Anurag
- Ahmad Tauseef
- Ahmadi Alireza
- Ahmadi Keivan
- Ahmadi Mehdi
- Ahmadieh Hamid
- Ahmadpour Ehsan
- Ahmed Muktar Beshir
- Aji Budi
- Akalu Temesgen Yihunie
- Akinyemi Rufus Olusola
- Akinyemiju Tomi
- Akombi Blessing
- Akunna Chisom Joyqueenet
- Al-Aly Ziyad
- Al-Mekhlafi Hesham M.
- Al-Raddadi Rajaa M.
- Alahdab Fares
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- Ali Saqib
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- Alijanzadeh Mehran
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- Taherkhani Amir
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- Tajdini Masih
- Takahashi Ken
- Takala Jukka S.
- Tamiru Animut Tagele
- Tang Muming
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- Tehrani-Banihashemi Arash
- Teklehaimanot Berhane Fseha
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- Temsah Mohamad-Hani
- Terrason Sonyah
- Tesema Getayeneh Antehunegn
- Tessema Zemenu Tadesse
- Thakur Bhaskar
- Thankappan Kavumpurathu Raman
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- Thrift Amanda G.
- Thurston George D.
- Titova Mariya Vladimirovna
- Tlou Boikhutso
- Tohidinik Hamid Reza
- Tonelli Marcello
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- Traini Eugenio
- Tran Bach Xuan
- Travillian Ravensara
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- Truelsen Thomas Clement
- Tsai Alexander C.
- Tsatsakis Aristidis
- Tyrovolas Stefanos
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- Ullah Irfan
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- Vasankari Tommi Juhani
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- Veisani Yousef
- Velasquez Ilais Moreno
- Venketasubramanian Narayanaswamy
- Vidale Simone
- Violante Francesco S.
- Vlassov Vasily
- Vollset Stein Emil
- Vongpradith Avina
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- Vu Giang Thu
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- Wang Hongbo
- Wang Jiayu
- Wang Yafeng
- Wang Yanzhong
- Wang Yuan-Pang
- Ward Joseph L.
- Watson Alexandrea
- Watson Stefanie
- Wei Jingkai
- Wei Melissa Y. Wei
- Weintraub Robert G.
- Weiss Daniel J.
- Weiss Jordan
- Welay Fissaha Tekulu
- Weldesamuel Girmay Teklay
- Werdecker Andrea
- West J. Jason
- Westerman Ronny
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- Wiangkham Taweewat
- Wickramasinghe Nuwan Darshana
- Wiens Kirsten E.
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- Wolfe Charles D. A.
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- Wu Chenkai
- Wu Junjie
- Wunrow Han Yong
- Xie Yang
- Xu Gelin
- Xu Rixing
- Yadgir Simon
- Yamada Tomohide
- Yamagishi Kazumasa
- Yaminfirooz Mousa
- Yano Yuichiro
- Yaya Sanni
- Yazdi-Feyzabadi Vahid
- Yearwood Jamal A.
- Yeheyis Tomas Y.
- Yeshitila Yordanos Gizachew
- Yilgwan Christopher Sabo
- Yilma Mekdes Tigistu
- Yip Paul
- Yonemoto Naohiro
- Yoon Seok-Jun
- York Hunter W.
- Younis Mustafa Z.
- Younker Theodore Patrick
- Yousefi Bahman
- Yousefi Zabihollah
- Yousefifard Mahmoud
- Yousefinezhadi Taraneh
- Yousuf Abdilahi Yousuf
- Yu Chuanhua
- Yu Yong
- Yuan Chun-Wei
- Yuce Deniz
- Yusefzadeh Hasan
- Zadey Siddhesh
- Zahabi Saleh Salehi
- Zaidi Syed Saoud
- Zaki Leila
- Zaki Maysaa El Sayed
- Zakzuk Josefina
- Zamani Mohammad
- Zamanian Maryam
- Zandian Hamed
- Zangeneh Alireza
- Zarafshan Hadi
- Zastrozhin Mikhail Sergeevich
- Zewdie Kaleab Alemayehu
- Zhang Jianrong
- Zhang Yunquan
- Zhang Zhi-Jiang
- Zhao Jeff T.
- Zhao Xiu-Ju George
- Zhao Yingxi
- Zheleva Bistra
- Zheng Peng
- Zhou Maigeng
- Zhu Cong
- Ziapour Arash
- Zimsen Stephanie R. M.
- Zlavog Bianca S.
- Zodpey Sanjay
- Publication venue
- Publication date
- 01/01/2020
- Field of study
Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens
Global, regional, and national cancer incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-Adjusted life-years for 29 cancer groups, 1990 to 2017 : A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study
- Author
- Abate Degu
- Abate Degu
- Abbasi Naghmeh
- Abbasi Naghmeh
- Abbastabar Hedayat
- Abbastabar Hedayat
- Abd-Allah Foad
- Abd-Allah Foad
- Abdel-Rahman Omar
- Abdel-Rahman Omar
- Abdelalim Ahmed
- Abdelalim Ahmed
- Abdoli Amir
- Abdoli Amir
- Abdollahpour Ibrahim
- Abdollahpour Ibrahim
- Abdulle Abdishakur SM
- Abdulle Abdishakur SM
- Abebe Nebiyu Dereje
- Abebe Nebiyu Dereje
- Abraha Haftom Niguse
- Abraha Haftom Niguse
- Abu-Raddad Laith Jamal
- Abu-Raddad Laith Jamal
- Abualhasan Ahmed
- Abualhasan Ahmed
- Adedeji Isaac Akinkunmi
- Adedeji Isaac Akinkunmi
- Advani Shailesh M
- Advani Shailesh M
- Afarideh Mohsen
- Afarideh Mohsen
- Afshari Mahdi
- Afshari Mahdi
- Aghaali Mohammad
- Aghaali Mohammad
- Agius Dominic
- Agius Dominic
- Agrawal Sutapa
- Agrawal Sutapa
- Ahmadi Ayat
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- Ahmadian Elham
- Ahmadian Elham
- Ahmadpour Ehsan
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- Ahmed Muktar Beshir
- Ahmed Muktar Beshir
- Akbari Mohammad Esmaeil
- Akbari Mohammad Esmaeil
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- Akinyemiju Tomi
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- Al-Aly Ziyad
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- AlAbdulKader Assim M
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- Damiani Giovanni
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- Darwish Amira Hamed
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- Daryani Ahmad
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- das Neves José
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- Demeke Feleke Mekonnen
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- Demis Asmamaw Bizuneh
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- Demoz Gebre Teklemariam
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- Denova-Gutiérrez Edgar
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- Derakhshani Afshin
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- Deribe Kalkidan Solomon
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- Desai Rupak
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- Desalegn Beruk Berhanu
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- Desta Melaku
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- Dey Subhojit
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- Dharmaratne Samath Dhamminda
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- Dhimal Meghnath
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- Diaz Daniel
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- Dinberu Mesfin Tadese Tadese
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- Grada Ayman
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- Guimaraes Andre Luiz Sena
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- Khatab Khaled
- Khater Amir
- Khater Amir
- Khayamzadeh Maryam
- Khayamzadeh Maryam
- Khazaee-Pool Maryam
- Khazaee-Pool Maryam
- Khazaei Salman
- Khazaei Salman
- Khoja Abdullah T
- Khoja Abdullah T
- Khosravi Mohammad Hossein
- Khosravi Mohammad Hossein
- Khubchandani Jagdish
- Khubchandani Jagdish
- Kianipour Neda
- Kianipour Neda
- Kim Daniel
- Kim Daniel
- Kim Yun Jin
- Kim Yun Jin
- Kisa Adnan
- Kisa Adnan
- Kisa Sezer
- Kisa Sezer
- Kissimova-Skarbek Katarzyna
- Kissimova-Skarbek Katarzyna
- Komaki Hamidreza
- Komaki Hamidreza
- Koyanagi Ai
- Koyanagi Ai
- Krohn Kristopher J
- Krohn Kristopher J
- Kugbey Nuworza
- Kugbey Nuworza
- Kumar Vivek
- Kumar Vivek
- Kuupiel Desmond
- Kuupiel Desmond
- La Vecchia Carlo
- La Vecchia Carlo
- Lad Deepesh P
- Lad Deepesh P
- Lake Eyasu Alem
- Lake Eyasu Alem
- Lakew Ayenew Molla
- Lakew Ayenew Molla
- Lal Dharmesh Kumar
- Lal Dharmesh Kumar
- Lami Faris Hasan
- Lami Faris Hasan
- Lan Qing
- Lan Qing
- Lasrado Savita
- Lasrado Savita
- Lauriola Paolo
- Lauriola Paolo
- Lazarus Jeffrey V
- Lazarus Jeffrey V
- Leigh James
- Leigh James
- Leshargie Cheru Tesema
- Leshargie Cheru Tesema
- Liao Yu
- Liao Yu
- Limenih Miteku Andualem
- Limenih Miteku Andualem
- Listl Stefan
- Listl Stefan
- Lopez Alan D
- Lopez Alan D
- Lopukhov Platon D
- Lopukhov Platon D
- Lunevicius Raimundas
- Lunevicius Raimundas
- Madadin Mohammed
- Madadin Mohammed
- Magdeldin Sameh
- Magdeldin Sameh
- Majeed Azeem
- Majeed Azeem
- Maleki Afshin
- Maleki Afshin
- Malekzadeh Reza
- Malekzadeh Reza
- Manafi Ali
- Manafi Ali
- Manafi Navid
- Manafi Navid
- Manamo Wondimu Ayele
- Manamo Wondimu Ayele
- Mansourian Morteza
- Mansourian Morteza
- Mansournia Mohammad Ali
- Mansournia Mohammad Ali
- Mantovani Lorenzo Giovanni
- Mantovani Lorenzo Giovanni
- Maroufizadeh Saman
- Maroufizadeh Saman
- Martini Santi Martini S
- Martini Santi Martini S
- Mashamba-Thompson Tivani Phosa
- Mashamba-Thompson Tivani Phosa
- Massenburg Benjamin Ballard
- Massenburg Benjamin Ballard
- Maswabi Motswadi Titus
- Maswabi Motswadi Titus
- Mathur Manu Raj
- Mathur Manu Raj
- McAlinden Colm
- McAlinden Colm
- McKee Martin
- McKee Martin
- Meheretu Hailemariam Abiy Alemu
- Meheretu Hailemariam Abiy Alemu
- Mehrotra Ravi
- Mehrotra Ravi
- Mehta Varshil
- Mehta Varshil
- Meier Toni
- Meier Toni
- Melaku Yohannes A
- Melaku Yohannes A
- Meles Gebrekiros Gebremichael
- Meles Gebrekiros Gebremichael
- Meles Hagazi Gebre
- Meles Hagazi Gebre
- Melese Addisu
- Melese Addisu
- Melku Mulugeta
- Melku Mulugeta
- Memiah Peter TN
- Memiah Peter TN
- Mendoza Walter
- Mendoza Walter
- Menezes Ritesh G
- Menezes Ritesh G
- Merat Shahin
- Merat Shahin
- Meretoja Tuomo J
- Meretoja Tuomo J
- Mestrovic Tomislav
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- Miazgowski Bartosz
- Miazgowski Bartosz
- Miazgowski Tomasz
- Miazgowski Tomasz
- Mihretie Kebadnew Mulatu M
- Mihretie Kebadnew Mulatu M
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- Miller Ted R
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- Mills Edward J
- Mir Seyed Mostafa
- Mir Seyed Mostafa
- Mirzaei Hamed
- Mirzaei Hamed
- Mirzaei Hamid Reza
- Mirzaei Hamid Reza
- Mishra Rashmi
- Mishra Rashmi
- Moazen Babak
- Moazen Babak
- Moghadam Telma Zahirian
- Moghadam Telma Zahirian
- Mohammad Dara K
- Mohammad Dara K
- Mohammad Karzan Abdulmuhsin
- Mohammad Karzan Abdulmuhsin
- Mohammad Yousef
- Mohammad Yousef
- Mohammadbeigi Abolfazl
- Mohammadbeigi Abolfazl
- Mohammadi Hiwa
- Mohammadi Hiwa
- Mohammadi Moslem
- Mohammadi Moslem
- Mohammadian Mahdi
- Mohammadian Mahdi
- Mohammadian-Hafshejani Abdollah
- Mohammadian-Hafshejani Abdollah
- Mohammadoo-Khorasani Milad
- Mohammadoo-Khorasani Milad
- Mohammadpourhodki Reza
- Mohammadpourhodki Reza
- Mohammed Ammas Siraj
- Mohammed Ammas Siraj
- Mohammed Jemal Abdu
- Mohammed Jemal Abdu
- Mohammed Shafiu
- Mohammed Shafiu
- Mohebi Farnam
- Mohebi Farnam
- Mokdad Ali H
- Mokdad Ali H
- Monasta Lorenzo
- Monasta Lorenzo
- Moodley Yoshan
- Moodley Yoshan
- Moosazadeh Mahmood
- Moosazadeh Mahmood
- Moossavi Maryam
- Moossavi Maryam
- Moradi Ghobad
- Moradi Ghobad
- Moradi-Joo Mohammad
- Moradi-Joo Mohammad
- Moradi-Lakeh Maziar
- Moradi-Lakeh Maziar
- Moradpour Farhad
- Moradpour Farhad
- Morawska Lidia
- Morawska Lidia
- Morgado-da-Costa Joana
- Morgado-da-Costa Joana
- Morisaki Naho
- Morisaki Naho
- Morrison Shane Douglas
- Morrison Shane Douglas
- Mosapour Abbas
- Mosapour Abbas
- Mousavi Seyyed Meysam
- Mousavi Seyyed Meysam
- Muche Achenef Asmamaw
- Muche Achenef Asmamaw
- Muhammed Oumer Sada S
- Muhammed Oumer Sada S
- Murray Christopher JL
- Murray Christopher JL
- Musa Jonah
- Musa Jonah
- Nabhan Ashraf R
- Nabhan Ashraf R
- Naderi Mehdi
- Naderi Mehdi
- Nagarajan Ahamarshan Jayaraman
- Nagarajan Ahamarshan Jayaraman
- Nagel Gabriele
- Nagel Gabriele
- Nahvijou Azin
- Nahvijou Azin
- Naik Gurudatta
- Naik Gurudatta
- Najafi Farid
- Najafi Farid
- Naldi Luigi
- Naldi Luigi
- Nam Hae Sung
- Nam Hae Sung
- Nasiri Naser
- Nasiri Naser
- Nazari Javad
- Nazari Javad
- Negoi Ionut
- Negoi Ionut
- Neupane Subas
- Neupane Subas
- Newcomb Polly A
- Newcomb Polly A
- Nggada Haruna Asura
- Nggada Haruna Asura
- Ngunjiri Josephine W
- Ngunjiri Josephine W
- Nguyen Cuong Tat
- Nguyen Cuong Tat
- Nikniaz Leila
- Nikniaz Leila
- Ningrum Dina Nur Anggraini
- Ningrum Dina Nur Anggraini
- Nirayo Yirga Legesse
- Nirayo Yirga Legesse
- Nixon Molly R
- Nixon Molly R
- Nnaji Chukwudi A
- Nnaji Chukwudi A
- Nojomi Marzieh
- Nojomi Marzieh
- Nosratnejad Shirin
- Nosratnejad Shirin
- Obsa Mohammed Suleiman
- Obsa Mohammed Suleiman
- Ofori-Asenso Richard
- Ofori-Asenso Richard
- Ogbo Felix Akpojene
- Ogbo Felix Akpojene
- Oh In-Hwan
- Oh In-Hwan
- Olagunju Andrew T
- Olagunju Andrew T
- Olagunju Tinuke O
- Olagunju Tinuke O
- Oluwasanu Mojisola Morenike
- Oluwasanu Mojisola Morenike
- Omonisi Abidemi E
- Omonisi Abidemi E
- Onwujekwe Obinna E
- Onwujekwe Obinna E
- Oommen Anu Mary
- Oommen Anu Mary
- Oren Eyal
- Oren Eyal
- Ortega-Altamirano Doris DV
- Ortega-Altamirano Doris DV
- Ota Erika
- Ota Erika
- Otstavnov Stanislav S
- Otstavnov Stanislav S
- Owolabi Mayowa Ojo
- Owolabi Mayowa Ojo
- P A Mahesh
- P A Mahesh
- Padubidri Jagadish Rao
- Padubidri Jagadish Rao
- Pakhale Smita
- Pakhale Smita
- Pakpour Amir H
- Pakpour Amir H
- Pana Adrian
- Pana Adrian
- Park Eun-Kee
- Park Eun-Kee
- Parsian Hadi
- Parsian Hadi
- Pashaei Tahereh
- Pashaei Tahereh
- Patel Shanti
- Patel Shanti
- Patil Snehal T
- Patil Snehal T
- Pennini Alyssa
- Pennini Alyssa
- Pereira David M
- Pereira David M
- Piccinelli Cristiano
- Piccinelli Cristiano
- Pillay Julian David
- Pillay Julian David
- Pirestani Majid
- Pirestani Majid
- Pishgar Farhad
- Pishgar Farhad
- Postma Maarten J
- Postma Maarten J
- Pourjafar Hadi
- Pourjafar Hadi
- Pourmalek Farshad
- Pourmalek Farshad
- Pourshams Akram
- Pourshams Akram
- Prakash Swayam
- Prakash Swayam
- Prasad Narayan
- Prasad Narayan
- Qorbani Mostafa
- Qorbani Mostafa
- Rabiee Mohammad
- Rabiee Mohammad
- Rabiee Navid
- Rabiee Navid
- Radfar Amir
- Radfar Amir
- Rafiei Alireza
- Rafiei Alireza
- Rahim Fakher
- Rahim Fakher
- Rahimi Mahdi
- Rahimi Mahdi
- Rahman Muhammad Aziz
- Rahman Muhammad Aziz
- Rajati Fatemeh
- Rajati Fatemeh
- Rana Saleem M
- Rana Saleem M
- Raoofi Samira
- Raoofi Samira
- Rath Goura Kishor
- Rath Goura Kishor
- Rawaf David Laith
- Rawaf David Laith
- Rawaf Salman
- Rawaf Salman
- Reiner Robert C
- Reiner Robert C
- Renzaho Andre MN
- Renzaho Andre MN
- Rezaei Nima
- Rezaei Nima
- Rezapour Aziz
- Rezapour Aziz
- Ribeiro Guerra Maximiliano
- Ribeiro Guerra Maximiliano
- Ribeiro Ana Isabel
- Ribeiro Ana Isabel
- Ribeiro Daniela
- Ribeiro Daniela
- Ronfani Luca
- Ronfani Luca
- Roro Elias Merdassa
- Roro Elias Merdassa
- Roshandel Gholamreza
- Roshandel Gholamreza
- Rostami Ali
- Rostami Ali
- Saad Ragy Safwat
- Saad Ragy Safwat
- Sabbagh Parisa
- Sabbagh Parisa
- Sabour Siamak
- Sabour Siamak
- Saddik Basema
- Saddik Basema
- Safiri Saeid
- Safiri Saeid
- Sahebkar Amirhossein
- Sahebkar Amirhossein
- Salahshoor Mohammad Reza
- Salahshoor Mohammad Reza
- Salehi Farkhonde
- Salehi Farkhonde
- Salem Hosni
- Salem Hosni
- Salem Marwa Rashad
- Salem Marwa Rashad
- Salimzadeh Hamideh
- Salimzadeh Hamideh
- Salomon Joshua A
- Salomon Joshua A
- Samy Abdallah M
- Samy Abdallah M
- Sanabria Juan
- Sanabria Juan
- Santric Milicevic Milena M
- Santric Milicevic Milena M
- Sartorius Benn
- Sartorius Benn
- Sarveazad Arash
- Sarveazad Arash
- Sathian Brijesh
- Sathian Brijesh
- Satpathy Maheswar
- Satpathy Maheswar
- Savic Miloje
- Savic Miloje
- Sawhney Monika
- Sawhney Monika
- Sayyah Mehdi
- Sayyah Mehdi
- Schneider Ione JC
- Schneider Ione JC
- Schöttker Ben
- Schöttker Ben
- Sekerija Mario
- Sekerija Mario
- Sepanlou Sadaf G
- Sepanlou Sadaf G
- Sepehrimanesh Masood
- Sepehrimanesh Masood
- Seyedmousavi Seyedmojtaba
- Seyedmousavi Seyedmojtaba
- Shaahmadi Faramarz
- Shaahmadi Faramarz
- Shabaninejad Hosein
- Shabaninejad Hosein
- Shahbaz Mohammad
- Shahbaz Mohammad
- Shaikh Masood Ali
- Shaikh Masood Ali
- Shamshirian Amir
- Shamshirian Amir
- Shamsizadeh Morteza
- Shamsizadeh Morteza
- Sharafi Heidar
- Sharafi Heidar
- Sharafi Zeinab
- Sharafi Zeinab
- Sharif Mehdi
- Sharif Mehdi
- Sharifi Ali
- Sharifi Ali
- Sharifi Hamid
- Sharifi Hamid
- Sharma Rajesh
- Sharma Rajesh
- Sheikh Aziz
- Sheikh Aziz
- Shiadeh Malihe Nourollahpour
- Shiadeh Malihe Nourollahpour
- Shirkoohi Reza
- Shirkoohi Reza
- Shukla Sharvari Rahul
- Shukla Sharvari Rahul
- Si Si
- Si Si
- Siabani Soraya
- Siabani Soraya
- Silva Diego Augusto Santos
- Silva Diego Augusto Santos
- Silveira Dayane Gabriele Alves
- Silveira Dayane Gabriele Alves
- Singh Ambrish
- Singh Ambrish
- Singh Jasvinder A
- Singh Jasvinder A
- Sisay Solomon
- Sisay Solomon
- Sitas Freddy
- Sitas Freddy
- Sobngwi Eugène
- Sobngwi Eugène
- Soofi Moslem
- Soofi Moslem
- Soriano Joan B
- Soriano Joan B
- Stathopoulou Vasiliki
- Stathopoulou Vasiliki
- Sufiyan Mu’awiyyah Babale
- Sufiyan Mu’awiyyah Babale
- Tabarés-Seisdedos Rafael
- Tabarés-Seisdedos Rafael
- Tabuchi Takahiro
- Tabuchi Takahiro
- Takahashi Ken
- Takahashi Ken
- Tamtaji Omid Reza
- Tamtaji Omid Reza
- Tarawneh Mohammed Rasoul
- Tarawneh Mohammed Rasoul
- Tassew Segen Gebremeskel
- Tassew Segen Gebremeskel
- Taymoori Parvaneh
- Taymoori Parvaneh
- Tehrani-Banihashemi Arash
- Tehrani-Banihashemi Arash
- Temsah Mohamad-Hani
- Temsah Mohamad-Hani
- Temsah Omar
- Temsah Omar
- Tesfay Berhe Etsay
- Tesfay Berhe Etsay
- Tesfay Fisaha Haile
- Tesfay Fisaha Haile
- Teshale Manaye Yihune
- Teshale Manaye Yihune
- Tessema Gizachew Assefa
- Tessema Gizachew Assefa
- Thapa Subash
- Thapa Subash
- Tlaye Kenean Getaneh
- Tlaye Kenean Getaneh
- Topor-Madry Roman
- Topor-Madry Roman
- Tovani-Palone Marcos Roberto
- Tovani-Palone Marcos Roberto
- Traini Eugenio
- Traini Eugenio
- Tran Bach Xuan
- Tran Bach Xuan
- Tran Khanh Bao
- Tran Khanh Bao
- Tsadik Afewerki Gebremeskel
- Tsadik Afewerki Gebremeskel
- Ullah Irfan
- Ullah Irfan
- Uthman Olalekan A
- Uthman Olalekan A
- Vacante Marco
- Vacante Marco
- Vaezi Maryam
- Vaezi Maryam
- Varona Pérez Patricia
- Varona Pérez Patricia
- Veisani Yousef
- Veisani Yousef
- Vidale Simone
- Vidale Simone
- Violante Francesco S
- Violante Francesco S
- Vlassov Vasily
- Vlassov Vasily
- Vollset Stein Emil
- Vollset Stein Emil
- Vos Theo
- Vos Theo
- Vosoughi Kia
- Vosoughi Kia
- Vu Giang Thu
- Vu Giang Thu
- Vujcic Isidora S
- Vujcic Isidora S
- Wabinga Henry
- Wabinga Henry
- Wachamo Tesfahun Mulatu
- Wachamo Tesfahun Mulatu
- Wagnew Fasil Shiferaw
- Wagnew Fasil Shiferaw
- Waheed Yasir
- Waheed Yasir
- Weldegebreal Fitsum
- Weldegebreal Fitsum
- Weldesamuel Girmay Teklay
- Weldesamuel Girmay Teklay
- Wijeratne Tissa
- Wijeratne Tissa
- Wondafrash Dawit Zewdu
- Wondafrash Dawit Zewdu
- Wonde Tewodros Eshete
- Wonde Tewodros Eshete
- Wondmieneh Adam Belay
- Wondmieneh Adam Belay
- Workie Hailemariam Mekonnen
- Workie Hailemariam Mekonnen
- Yadav Rajaram
- Yadav Rajaram
- Yadegar Abbas
- Yadegar Abbas
- Yadollahpour Ali
- Yadollahpour Ali
- Yaseri Mehdi
- Yaseri Mehdi
- Yazdi-Feyzabadi Vahid
- Yazdi-Feyzabadi Vahid
- Yeshaneh Alex
- Yeshaneh Alex
- Yimam Mohammed Ahmed
- Yimam Mohammed Ahmed
- Yimer Ebrahim M
- Yimer Ebrahim M
- Yisma Engida
- Yisma Engida
- Yonemoto Naohiro
- Yonemoto Naohiro
- Younis Mustafa Z
- Younis Mustafa Z
- Yousefi Bahman
- Yousefi Bahman
- Yousefifard Mahmoud
- Yousefifard Mahmoud
- Yu Chuanhua
- Yu Chuanhua
- Zabeh Erfan
- Zabeh Erfan
- Zadnik Vesna
- Zadnik Vesna
- Zaidi Zoubida
- Zaidi Zoubida
- Zaki Leila
- Zaki Leila
- Zaki Maysaa El Sayed
- Zaki Maysaa El Sayed
- Zamani Mohammad
- Zamani Mohammad
- Zandian Hamed
- Zandian Hamed
- Zangeneh Alireza
- Zangeneh Alireza
- Zendehdel Kazem
- Zendehdel Kazem
- Zenebe Zerihun Menlkalew
- Zenebe Zerihun Menlkalew
- Zewale Taye Abuhay
- Zewale Taye Abuhay
- Ziapour Arash
- Ziapour Arash
- Zodpey Sanjay
- Zodpey Sanjay
- Publication venue
- Publication date
- 01/01/2017
- Field of study
Importance: Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data. Objective: To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning. Evidence Review: We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-Adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence. Findings: In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs). Conclusions and Relevance: The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care. © 2019 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.Peer reviewe
Magnitude of fetal macrosomia and its associated factors at public health institutions of Hawassa city, southern Ethiopia
- Author
- A Mohammadbeigi
- A Usta
- AH Mai
- Andargachew Kassa Biratu
- AS Said
- B Blondel
- B Kayode-Adedeji
- Birhanu Jikamo
- CA Asplund
- CM Boney
- CN Onyearugha
- DM Yu
- E Alberman
- F Fuchs
- G Li
- GM Hermann
- HG Mengesha
- JI García-De la Torre
- JS Dyer
- M Abolfazl
- M Ahlgren
- M Mahnaz
- M Mallouli
- MR Sprehe
- N Voldner
- Negash Wakgari
- PY Wong
- S Gu
- S Ognjanovic
- SR Ahmed
- T Harder
- T Henriksen
- X Shan
- Z Bukelskiene
- Publication venue
- 'Springer Science and Business Media LLC'
- Publication date
- Field of study
Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019:a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- Author
- Abbas K. M. (Kaja M.)
- Abbasi-Kangevari M. (Mohsen)
- Abbasifard M. (Mitra)
- Abbastabar H. (Hedayat)
- Abd El Razek H. M. (Hassan Magdy)
- Abd El Razek M. M. (Muhammed Magdy)
- Abd-Allah F. (Foad)
- Abdelalim A. (Ahmed)
- Abdulkader R. S. (Rizwan Suliankatchi)
- Abdullah K. H. (Kanaan Hamagharib)
- Abolhassani H. (Hassan)
- Abreu L. G. (Lucas Guimaraes)
- Abrigo M. R. (Michael R. M.)
- Abushouk A. I. (Abdelrahman I.)
- Adabi M. (Maryam)
- Adair T. (Tim)
- Adebayo O. M. (Oladimeji M.)
- Adedeji I. A. (Isaac Akinkunmi)
- Adekanmbi V. (Victor)
- Adeoye A. M. (Abiodun Moshood)
- Adetokunboh O. O. (Olatunji O.)
- Advani S. M. (Shailesh M.)
- Afshin A. (Ashkan)
- Aghaali M. (Mohammad)
- Agrawal A. (Anurag)
- Ahmadi K. (Keivan)
- Ahmadieh H. (Hamid)
- Ahmed M. B. (Muktar Beshir)
- Al-Aly Z. (Ziyad)
- Al-Mekhlafi H. M. (Hesham M.)
- Alam K. (Khurshid)
- Alam T. (Tahiya)
- Alanezi F. M. (Fahad Mashhour)
- Alanzi T. M. (Turki M.)
- Alcalde-Rabanal J. E. (Jacqueline Elizabeth)
- Ali M. (Muhammad)
- Alicandro G. (Gianfranco)
- Alijanzadeh M. (Mehran)
- Alinia C. (Cyrus)
- Alipour V. (Vahid)
- Alizade H. (Hesam)
- Aljunid S. M. (Syed Mohamed)
- Allebeck P. (Peter)
- Almadi M. A. (Majid Abdulrahman Hamad)
- Almasi-Hashiani A. (Amir)
- Altirkawi K. A. (Khalid A.)
- Alumran A. K. (Arwa Khalid)
- Alvis-Guzman N. (Nelson)
- Amini-Rarani M. (Mostafa)
- Aminorroaya A. (Arya)
- Amit A. M. (Arianna Maever L.)
- Ancuceanu R. (Robert)
- Andrei C. L. (Catalina Liliana)
- Androudi S. (Sofia)
- Angus C. (Colin)
- Anjomshoa M. (Mina)
- Ansari F. (Fereshteh)
- Ansari I. (Iman)
- Ansari-Moghaddam A. (Alireza)
- Antonio C. A. (Carl Abelardo T.)
- Antony C. M. (Catherine M.)
- Anvari D. (Davood)
- Appiah S. C. (Seth Christopher Yaw)
- Arab-Zozani M. (Morteza)
- Arabloo J. (Jalal)
- Aravkin A. Y. (Aleksandr Y.)
- Aremu O. (Olatunde)
- Arnlov J. (Johan)
- Aryal K. K. (Krishna K.)
- Asadi-Pooya A. A. (Ali A.)
- Asgari S. (Samaneh)
- Atteraya M. S. (Madhu Sudhan)
- Ausloos M. (Marcel)
- Avila-Burgos L. (Leticia)
- Avokpaho E. F. (Euripide Frinel Gbenato Arthur)
- Ayano G. (Getinet)
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- Truelsen T. C. (Thomas Clement)
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- Zhou M. (Maigeng)
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- Publication venue
- 'Elsevier BV'
- Publication date
- 01/01/2020
- Field of study
Abstract
Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019.
Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric.
Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019.
Interpretation: Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring
Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- Author
- Abbafati Cristiana
- Abbas Kaja M.
- Abbasi Mohammad
- Abbasi-Kangevari Mohsen
- Abbasifard Mitra
- Abbastabar Hedayat
- Abd El Razek Hassan Magdy
- Abd El Razek Muhammed Magdy
- Abd-Allah Foad
- Abdelalim Ahmed
- Abdollahi Mohammad
- Abdollahpour Ibrahim
- Abdulkader Rizwan Suliankatchi
- Abdullah Kanaan Hamagharib
- Abedi Aidin
- Abedi Parisa
- Abegaz Kedir Hussein
- Abolhassani Hassan
- Abosetugn Akine Eshete
- Aboyans Victor
- Abrams Elissa M.
- Abreu Lucas Guimaraes
- Abrigo Michael R. M.
- Abu Haimed Abdulaziz Khalid
- Abu-Gharbieh Eman
- Abu-Raddad Laith Jamal
- Abualhasan Ahmed
- Abushouk Abdelrahman I.
- Acebedo Alyssa
- Ackerman Ilana N.
- Adabi Maryam
- Adair Tim
- Adamu Abdu A.
- Adebayo Oladimeji M.
- Adedeji Isaac Akinkunmi
- Adekanmbi Victor
- Adelson Jaimie D.
- Adeoye Abiodun Moshood
- Adetokunboh Olatunji O.
- Adham Davoud
- Advani Shailesh M.
- Afarideh Mohsen
- Afshari Mahdi
- Afshin Ashkan
- Agardh Emilie E.
- Agarwal Gina
- Agasthi Pradyumna
- Agesa Kareha M.
- Aghaali Mohammad
- Aghamir Seyed Mohammad Kazem
- Agrawal Anurag
- Ahmad Tauseef
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- Ahmadpour Ehsan
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- Zadey Siddhesh
- Zahabi Saleh Salehi
- Zaidi Syed Saoud
- Zaki Leila
- Zaki Maysaa El Sayed
- Zakzuk Josefina
- Zamani Mohammad
- Zamanian Maryam
- Zandian Hamed
- Zangeneh Alireza
- Zarafshan Hadi
- Zastrozhin Mikhail Sergeevich
- Zewdie Kaleab Alemayehu
- Zhang Jianrong
- Zhang Yunquan
- Zhang Zhi-Jiang
- Zhao Jeff T.
- Zhao Xiu-Ju George
- Zhao Yingxi
- Zheleva Bistra
- Zheng Peng
- Zhou Maigeng
- Zhu Cong
- Ziapour Arash
- Zimsen Stephanie R. M.
- Zlavog Bianca S.
- Zodpey Sanjay
- Publication venue
- 'Elsevier BV'
- Publication date
- 01/01/2020
- Field of study
Mapping routine measles vaccination in low- and middle-income countries
- Author
- Aaron E Osgood-Zimmerman (8383062)
- Abbas Azadmehr (12151653)
- Abbas Mosapour (9154247)
- Abbas Sheikhtaheri (9715088)
- Abdallah M Samy (8383428)
- Abdelrahman I Abushouk (9714446)
- Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani (9714923)
- Abiy H Sinke (12150585)
- Abiyu Mekonnen Gebrehiwot (9715364)
- Abolfazl Mohammadbeigi (9715730)
- Adel Spotin (7384796)
- Adhanom Gebreegziabher Baraki (8595675)
- Adnan Kisa (6419198)
- Adrian Pana (5814992)
- Afsaneh Arzani (9153932)
- Agus Sudaryanto (1979845)
- Ahad Bakhtiari (6192659)
- Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan (9154253)
- Ahmad Ghashghaee (9154076)
- Ahmed Abdelalim (8673294)
- Ahmed I Hasaballah (9154109)
- Ahmed Omar Bali (9154271)
- Ai Koyanagi (430702)
- Ai-Min Wu (561245)
- Aisha Elsharkawy (9154031)
- Alaa Badawi (521535)
- Aleksandra Barac (8673444)
- Alem Girmay (8173929)
- Ali Almasi (9153917)
- Ali Bijani (8383632)
- Ali H Mokdad (8383332)
- Ali Kabir (9154145)
- Ali Kazemi Karyani (8383668)
- Ali S Shalash (9154358)
- Ali Yadollahpour (8674665)
- Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam (9714485)
- Alireza Esteghamati (7321373)
- Alireza Rafiei (3572492)
- Alireza Zangeneh (9715643)
- Alyssa N Sbarra (9154352)
- Amin Mousavi Khaneghah (8042255)
- Amin Reza Nikpoor (3745657)
- Amin Soheili (9715106)
- Amir Almasi-Hashiani (3713032)
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- Shekoufeh Nikfar (4535857)
- Shirin Djalalinia (2742145)
- Shiva Borzouei (9714572)
- Shokofeh Maleki (9714899)
- Shymaa Enany (827422)
- Siamak Sabour (8689300)
- Siddhesh Zadey (9716126)
- Simin Mouodi (8674161)
- Simon I Hay (6949175)
- Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saraswathy (9154349)
- Soewarta Kosen (8383266)
- Soheil Hassanipour (9540686)
- Sojib Bin Zaman (3692353)
- Somayeh Bohlouli (9153965)
- Soraya Siabani (8383737)
- Sowmya J Rao (9715037)
- Srinivasa Rao Bolla (9715874)
- Stephen S Lim (8673273)
- Subramanian Senthilkumaran (9154355)
- Suraj Bhattarai (8383140)
- Susanna J Dunachie (9154013)
- Syed Amir Gilani (6943472)
- Syed Mohamed Aljunid (4814136)
- Taddese Alemu Zerfu (5851382)
- Tahereh Pashaei (2587489)
- Takeshi Fukumoto (8383197)
- Tanuj Kanchan (451145)
- Tanvir M Huda (7329743)
- Taraneh Yousefinezhadi (9715202)
- Tariq Jamal Siddiqi (7042445)
- Tauseef Ahmad (4503826)
- Taweewat Wiangkham (773494)
- Telma Zahirian Moghadam (9715208)
- Teshome Bekele Elema (12151674)
- Tewodros Eshete Wonde (9154415)
- Thirunavukkarasu Sathish (4100035)
- Thomas Pilgrim (339922)
- Tomas Y Yeheyis (9715187)
- Tomislav Mestrovic (8383692)
- Tomohide Yamada (138371)
- Tsegaye Lolaso Lenjebo (9154184)
- Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot (8383200)
- Tufa Kolola (3221214)
- Turki M Alanzi (9153902)
- Ulrich Otto Mueller (8383347)
- Usman Iqbal (492423)
- Vahid Alipour (8383095)
- Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi (6718919)
- Van Charles Lansingh (4957303)
- Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito (9154286)
- Venkatesh Maled (9715478)
- Victor Adekanmbi (4752543)
- Victoria Pando-Robles (12151692)
- Vijay Kumar Chattu (8673555)
- Vinay Nangia (346734)
- Vinod C Nayak (9714953)
- Vishnu Renjith (725448)
- Vivekanand Jha (430559)
- Walter Mendoza (8383311)
- Wondimeneh Shibabaw Shiferaw (8716917)
- Xiaofeng Liang (652367)
- Xiu-Ju George Zhao (9715217)
- Xuan Tran Bach (11596300)
- Yafeng Wang (330852)
- Yared Asmare Aynalem (8716926)
- Yasir Waheed (8383494)
- Yasser Vasseghian (8180403)
- Yeshambel T Nigatu (9714956)
- Yibeltal Tebekaw Bayou (12151659)
- Yigizie Yeshaw (7253771)
- Yonatal Mesfin Tefera (12151710)
- Yousef Mohammad (9154235)
- Yousef Saleh Khader (8383254)
- Yousef Veisani (8383485)
- Yuan-Pang Wang (184231)
- Yuming Guo (162863)
- Yun Jin Kim (2133199)
- Yunquan Zhang (4815927)
- Zabihollah Yousefi (9715199)
- Zahid A Butt (8383149)
- Zahiruddin Quazi Syed (9715019)
- Zahra Atafar (9714503)
- Zahra Baradaran-Seyed (12151656)
- Zemenu Tadesse Tessema (8383464)
- Zhi-Jiang Zhang (539386)
- Zubair Kabir (394455)
- Zul Kamal (6426083)
- Zulfiqar A Bhutta (8051936)
- Publication venue
- Publication date
- 21/01/2021
- Field of study
The safe, highly effective measles vaccine has been recommended globally since 1974, yet in 2017 there were more than 17 million cases of measles and 83,400 deaths in children under 5 years old, and more than 99% of both occurred in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs)1–4. Globally comparable, annual, local estimates of routine first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) coverage are critical for understanding geographically precise immunity patterns, progress towards the targets of the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP), and high-risk areas amid disruptions to vaccination programmes caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)5–8. Here we generated annual estimates of routine childhood MCV1 coverage at 5 × 5-km2 pixel and second administrative levels from 2000 to 2019 in 101 LMICs, quantified geographical inequality and assessed vaccination status by geographical remoteness. After widespread MCV1 gains from 2000 to 2010, coverage regressed in more than half of the districts between 2010 and 2019, leaving many LMICs far from the GVAP goal of 80% coverage in all districts by 2019. MCV1 coverage was lower in rural than in urban locations, although a larger proportion of unvaccinated children overall lived in urban locations; strategies to provide essential vaccination services should address both geographical contexts. These results provide a tool for decision-makers to strengthen routine MCV1 immunization programmes and provide equitable disease protection for all children