Pneumococcal carriage, serotype distribution and risk factors in children with community-acquired pneumonia, 5 years after introduction of the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in Ethiopia

Background: There is a scarcity of data on pneumococcal serotypes carried by children in Ethiopia. We studied pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage rate, serotypes, and risk factors among children with community acquired pneumonia (CAP). Methods: A prospective observational cohort study was performed in children with CAP, aged 0-15 years, in 2 pediatric emergency departments in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Nasopharyngeal swabs were cultured, and serotypes of Streptococcus pneumoniae were determined by sequencing the cpsB gene and by the Quellung reaction. Risk factors were analyzed by using binary logistic regression. Results: Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected from 362 children with CAP. Pneumococcal carriage rate was 21.5% (78 of 362). The most common serotypes were 19A (27%), 16F (8.5%), and 6A (4.9%). In addition, 8.5% of the pneumococcal isolates were nontypeable. In bivariate analysis, children with a parent that smokes were more likely to carry pneumococci (crude odds ratio, 3.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2-12.3; P =.023) than those with parents that do not smoke. In multivariable analysis, living in a house with >= 2 rooms (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 0.48; 95% CI, 0.28-0.82; P =.007) and vaccination with = 2 doses of 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) (AOR, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.15-0.92; P =.033) were protective of pneumococcal carriage. Conclusions: Five years after introduction of PCV10 in Ethiopia, the vaccine-related serotype 19A was predominant in the nasopharynx of children with CAP. Continued evaluation of the direct and indirect impact of PCV10 on pneumococcal serotype distribution in Ethiopia is warranted

It Takes a Village:Bringing Palliative Care to Ethiopia

In Ethiopia, there is a great need for culturally relevant, sustainable palliative care. Profound poverty and limited health care resources magnify the impact of disease in Ethiopia, one of the poorest countries in the world. The impacts of high burden of disease and poor access to health care include physical suffering, and detrimental economic effects. Thus, the potential for palliative care to improve health care allocation and reduce suffering is substantial. An immediate action could include harnessing the infrastructure of the iddir, which are centuries-old, indigenous neighborhood organizations that provide care and support for families during the time of a death. We propose a model of community-based palliative care instantiated within iddirs, in which they are trained as volunteers to deliver basic palliative care. Shifting the gaze of global health research towards local solutions in Ethiopia may reveal sustainable, effective strategies to improve care for millions in this vulnerable population.</p

Measuring routine childhood vaccination coverage in 204 countries and territories, 1980-2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1

Background Measuring routine childhood vaccination is crucial to inform global vaccine policies and programme implementation, and to track progress towards targets set by the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) and Immunization Agenda 2030. Robust estimates of routine vaccine coverage are needed to identify past successes and persistent vulnerabilities. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020, Release 1, we did a systematic analysis of global, regional, and national vaccine coverage trends using a statistical framework, by vaccine and over time. Methods For this analysis we collated 55 326 country-specific, cohort-specific, year-specific, vaccine-specific, and dosespecific observations of routine childhood vaccination coverage between 1980 and 2019. Using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, we produced location-specific and year-specific estimates of 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators for 204 countries and territories from 1980 to 2019, adjusting for biases in countryreported data and reflecting reported stockouts and supply disruptions. We analysed global and regional trends in coverage and numbers of zero-dose children (defined as those who never received a diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DTP] vaccine dose), progress towards GVAP targets, and the relationship between vaccine coverage and sociodemographic development. Findings By 2019, global coverage of third-dose DTP (DTP3; 81.6% [95% uncertainty interval 80.4-82 .7]) more than doubled from levels estimated in 1980 (39.9% [37.5-42.1]), as did global coverage of the first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1; from 38.5% [35.4-41.3] in 1980 to 83.6% [82.3-84.8] in 2019). Third- dose polio vaccine (Pol3) coverage also increased, from 42.6% (41.4-44.1) in 1980 to 79.8% (78.4-81.1) in 2019, and global coverage of newer vaccines increased rapidly between 2000 and 2019. The global number of zero-dose children fell by nearly 75% between 1980 and 2019, from 56.8 million (52.6-60. 9) to 14.5 million (13.4-15.9). However, over the past decade, global vaccine coverage broadly plateaued; 94 countries and territories recorded decreasing DTP3 coverage since 2010. Only 11 countries and territories were estimated to have reached the national GVAP target of at least 90% coverage for all assessed vaccines in 2019. Interpretation After achieving large gains in childhood vaccine coverage worldwide, in much of the world this progress was stalled or reversed from 2010 to 2019. These findings underscore the importance of revisiting routine immunisation strategies and programmatic approaches, recentring service delivery around equity and underserved populations. Strengthening vaccine data and monitoring systems is crucial to these pursuits, now and through to 2030, to ensure that all children have access to, and can benefit from, lifesaving vaccines. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. Methods We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61.7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61.4-61.9) in 1980 to 71.8 years (71.5-72.2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11.3 years (3.7-17.4), to 62.6 years (56.5-70.2). Total deaths increased by 4.1% (2.6-5.6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55.8 million (54.9 million to 56.6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17.0% (15.8-18.1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14.1% (12.6-16.0) to 39.8 million (39.2 million to 40.5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13.1% (11.9-14.3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42.1%, 39.1-44.6), malaria (43.1%, 34.7-51.8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29.8%, 24.8-34.9), and maternal disorders (29.1%, 19.3-37.1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death. Interpretation At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Assessment of Land use, Land cover change Dynamics using GIS AND REMOTE SENSING of Soro district, Hadya Zone, Southern Ethiopia

Land use and land cover change resulting from various complex  interactions between a human being and the environment. This study aims to identify and compare land use land cover change. In this study, Landsat imageries were used to analyze land use land cover change of Soro district, Hadiya Zone, Southern Ethiopia. Three sets of remotely sensed data: Land sat MSS (1987), TM (2002 and Land sat ETM+ imagery (2017) were used to produce the LULC maps at different periods using maximum likelihood  supervised image classification algorithm. Remote sensing application software, ERDAS IMAGINE, and Arc GIS were used to analyze the LULC  change dynamics. The overall classification accuracy and kappa coefficient of the Landsat image of the year 1987, 2002, and 2017 is 87.5 % (0.8318), 86.6 %(0.835) and 88.57 %(0.8456) respectively. This indicates that there is a strong agreement and accuracy in the LULC classification output. The LULC change dynamics showed that forest land cover increased in the first study period from 1987 – 2002 and decreased in the second study period from 2002 – 2017. Wetland decreased in all study periods and shrubland area decreased during 1987 - 2002 and increased 2002 – 2017. Cultivated land decreased in the first study period and increased in the second study period. Out of all land use land cover classifications, wetlands are the most converted land cover type during the entire study period. Therefore, there should be a proper land use planning at the local scale for better sustainable watershed management to increase agricultural productivity and enhance food security of the rural community.Keywords: Soro; Image Classification; GIS; Land Use/Land Cover Change; and Remote Sensing

Predictors, causes, and trends of neonatal mortality at Nekemte Referral Hospital, east Wollega Zone, western Ethiopia (2010-2014). Retrospective cohort study.

BackgroundNeonatal mortality is a significant contributor to infant mortality. Causes and predictors of neonatal death are known to vary in different settings and across different contexts. This study aimed to assess predictors, causes, and trends of neonatal mortality amongst neonates admitted to Nekemte Referral Hospital neonatal unit between 2010-2014.MethodsRetrospective data was collected for 2090 live born neonates admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit of Nekemte Referral Hospital by reviewing records between 2010 to 2014. Variables were collected from the neonatal registration book and patient card on the predictors, causes, and trends of neonatal death using a standard checklist developed by the World Health Organization (WHO). Data was analyzed using Epi info version 3.5.1, and SPSS version 25 for windows. The level of significance was set at PResultsThere were 183 deaths in the cohort equivalent to 8.8% of deaths among total admitted neonates during the study period. Early neonatal deaths accounted for 8% and late neonatal deaths accounted for 0.71% of deaths among total admitted neonates. Main predictors identified for an increased risk of neonatal mortality were; neonates from rural residents [AOR 1.35, (95% CI, 1.35-1.87)], birth order of greater than five [AOR 5.10, (95% CI, 1.15-22.63)], home delivery [AOR 3.41, (95% CI, 2.24-5.19)], very low birth weight [AOR 6.75, (95% CI, 3.63-12.54)] and low birth weight [AOR 2.81, (95% CI, 1.95-4.05)] and inability to cry at birth [AOR 2.21, (95% CI, 1.51-3.22)]. The trend analysis showed a sharp fall for the neonatal mortality over the last five years with a mean reduction of 16%.ConclusionsData from the Nekemte Referral Hospital Neonatal Intensive Care Unit analysis revealed majority of the deaths were occurred during early neonatal period. The main predictors of neonatal mortality identified from this study needs strengthening an appropriate public health intervention through addressing antenatal care, curbing home delivery

Pneumococcal serotype 19A is the major cause of pediatric acute otitis media with ruptured tympanic membrane in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 5 years after the introduction of the ten-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine

Introduction: In Ethiopia, there is a lack of data on pneumococcal serotypes causing acute otitis media (AOM) in children. We aimed to study the etiology, pneumococcal serotypes and antimicrobial resistance patterns of isolates from children with AOM with spontaneous perforation of the tympanic membrane (SPTM). Methods: We carried out a prospective observational study in children with AOM with SPTM, aged 0-15 years in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Middle ear fluid was collected using sterile swabs, cultured and antibiotic susceptibility testing was performed. Serotypes of Streptococcus pneumoniae were determined by sequencing the cpsB gene and by the Quellung reaction. Results: A total of 55 children were enrolled. Out of 55 samples that were cultured, 52 (94.5%) were culture positive for a total of 66 bacterial species, and 56.4% (31/55) samples were positive for 41 (62.1%) known pathogenic bacterial species. The most common pathogenic bacterial isolates were S. pneumoniae (36.6%), Staphylococcus aureus (19.5%), Streptococcus pyogenes (14.6%) and Haemophilus influenzae (12.2%). Serotype 19A (73.3%) was the predominant pneumococcal serotype. There was a high rate of non-susceptibility to penicillin (86.6%) and trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole (80%) among pneumococcal isolates. Out of 21 different isolates tested for amoxicillin susceptibility, 15 (71.4%) were resistant. Conclusions: Pneumococcal serotype 19A was the predominant cause of AOM with SPTM in children in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 5 years after introduction of PCV10. There was a high rate of resistance to commonly prescribed antibiotics. The study highlights the need for wide scale surveillance of the etiology and antimicrobial susceptibility of AOM in Ethiopian children

Anthropometric Improvement among HIV Infected Pre-School Children Following Initiation of First Line Anti-Retroviral Therapy: Implications for Follow Up.

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) is a lifesaving intervention for HIV infected children. There is a scarcity of data on immunological recovery and its relation with growth indicators among HIV infected young children. The current study aims to assess the pattern of anthropometric Z-score improvement following initiation of first-line ART among under-five children and the relationship between anthropometric Z-score improvement and immunologic recovery.We included under-five children who were on first-line ART at five major hospitals in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. We measured anthropometry and collected clinical and laboratory data at follow up, and we retrieved clinical and anthropometric data at ART initiation from records. Z-scores for each of the anthropometric indices were calculated based on WHO growth standards using ENA for SMART 2011 software. Linear regression was used to assess the relationship between time on ART and anthropometric Z-score improvement; and the relationship between anthropometric Z-score improvement and immunologic recovery. Multiple linear regression was used to assess the independent predictors of anthropometric Z-score change.The median age of the participants was 4.1 (Interquartile range (IQR): 3.3-4.9) years. More than half (52.48%) were female. The median duration of follow up was 1.69 (IQR: 1.08-2.63) years. There was a significant improvement in all anthropometric indices at any follow up after initiation of first-line ART (underweight; 39.5% vs16.5%, stunting; 71.3% vs 62.9% and wasting; 16.3% vs 1.0%; p-value< 0.0001). There was an inverse relationship between improvement in weight for age Z-score (WAZ) and duration of ART (R2 = 0.04; F (1, 158); p = 0.013). Height for age Z-score (HAZ) both at the time of ART initiation and follow up has a positive linear relationship with CD4 percentage at follow up (Coef. = 1.92; R2 = 0.05; p-value = 0.002). Duration on ART (Std. Err. = 0.206, t = -1.99, p-value = 0.049) and level of maternal education (Std. Err. = 0.290, t = 2.64, p-value = 0.009) were the only independent predictors of the change in WAZ and change in HAZ at any follow up visit respectively.There was a significant improvement in all anthropometric indices at any follow-up after initiation of first-line ART among under-five children. HAZ was linearly related with immunologic recovery following ART initiation. The findings indicate that anthropometric indices could be taken as proxy indicators of immunologic recovery for under-five children