Eliciting group judgements about replicability: a technical implementation of the IDEA Protocol

In recent years there has been increased interest in replicating prior research. One of the biggest challenges to assessing replicability is the cost in resources and time that it takes to repeat studies. Thus there is an impetus to develop rapid elicitation protocols that can, in a practical manner, estimate the likelihood that research findings will successfully replicate. We employ a novel implementation of the IDEA (‘Investigate’, ‘Discuss’, ‘Estimate’ and ‘Aggregate) protocol, realised through the repliCATS platform. The repliCATS platform is designed to scalably elicit expert opinion about replicability of social and behavioural science research. The IDEA protocol provides a structured methodology for eliciting judgements and reasoning from groups. This paper describes the repliCATS platform as a multi-user cloud-based software platform featuring (1) a technical implementation of the IDEA protocol for eliciting expert opinion on research replicability, (2) capture of consent and demographic data, (3) on-line training on replication concepts, and (4) exporting of completed judgements. The platform has, to date, evaluated 3432 social and behavioural science research claims from 637 participants

Luminiscente dating of fluvial deposits in the rock shelter of Cueva Antón, Spain.

The fluvial sediments at Cueva Antón, a Middle Palaeolithic rock shelter located in the valley of the River Mula (Southeast Spain), produced abundant lithic assemblages of Mousterian affinities. Radiocarbon dates are available for the upper part of the archaeological succession, while for the middle to lower parts chronometric data have been missing. Here we present luminescence dating results for these parts of the succession. Quartz OSL on small aliquots and single grain measurements yield ages ranging from 69 ± 7 ka to 82 ± 8 ka with a weighted mean of 72 ± 4 ka for sub-complexes AS2 to AS5. Equivalent dose estimates from large aliquots were highest and inconsistent with those from single grains and small multiple grain aliquots. This is probably caused by the presence of oversaturating grains, which have been quantified by single grain measurements. Additional post-IR IRSL measurements on coarse grained feldspar give strong support to a well-bleached quartz OSL signal. While independent chronometric control is missing, the results are within the expected age range and support the notion of a rapid accumulation of the fluvial deposits

Predicting reliability through structured expert elicitation with the repliCATS (Collaborative Assessments for Trustworthy Science) process

As replications of individual studies are resource intensive, techniques for predicting the replicability are required. We introduce the repliCATS (Collaborative Assessments for Trustworthy Science) process, a new method for eliciting expert predictions about the replicability of research. This process is a structured expert elicitation approach based on a modified Delphi technique applied to the evaluation of research claims in social and behavioural sciences. The utility of processes to predict replicability is their capacity to test scientific claims without the costs of full replication. Experimental data supports the validity of this process, with a validation study producing a classification accuracy of 84% and an Area Under the Curve of 0.94, meeting or exceeding the accuracy of other techniques used to predict replicability. The repliCATS process provides other benefits. It is highly scalable, able to be deployed for both rapid assessment of small numbers of claims, and assessment of high volumes of claims over an extended period through an online elicitation platform, having been used to assess 3000 research claims over an 18 month period. It is available to be implemented in a range of ways and we describe one such implementation. An important advantage of the repliCATS process is that it collects qualitative data that has the potential to provide insight in understanding the limits of generalizability of scientific claims. The primary limitation of the repliCATS process is its reliance on human-derived predictions with consequent costs in terms of participant fatigue although careful design can minimise these costs. The repliCATS process has potential applications in alternative peer review and in the allocation of effort for replication studies

Central Santa Catarina coastal dunefields chronology and their relation to relative sea level and climatic changes

During the past decades, there have been contrarian explanations for the formation and stabilization of coastal dunefields: while many authors believe the dunes formation would be enhanced by falling sea level, others argue that a rising or stable sea level context would be favorable. For Brazilian coastal dunefields, the second hypothesis seems to be more consistent with the luminescence ages found so far; however, most of these data were obtained without using the SAR protocol. Another point of concern is the role of climate change in the aeolian system, which is still not very clear. The aim of this paper is to try to clarify these two questions. To this end, five coastal dunefields were selected in central Santa Catarina coast. The remote sensing and dating results allowed the discrimination and mapping of at least four aeolian generations. Their age distribution in relation to the global curve of relative sea level variation during the Late Pleistocene allows us to suggest that the formation of Aeolian dunefields in the coastal context is supported by stable relative sea level. However, relative sea level is not the only determinant for the formation and preservation of the aeolian coastal dunes. Evidences of climatic control indicate that the initiation of dunefields would be favored by periods of less humidity while their stabilization would occur preferably during the periods of rain intensification, connected to monsoon activity

Ten-year assessment of the 100 priority questions for global biodiversity conservation

In 2008, a group of conservation scientists compiled a list of 100 priority questions for the conservation of the world's biodiversity ?Sutherland et al. (2009) Conservation Biology, 23, 557?567?. However, now almost a decade later, no one has yet published a study gauging how much progress has been made in addressing these 100 high?priority questions in the peer?reviewed literature. Here we take a first step toward re?examining the 100 questions and identify key knowledge gaps that still remain. Through a combination of a questionnaire and a literature review, we evaluated each of the 100 questions on the basis of two criteria: relevance and effort. We defined highly?relevant questions as those which ? if answered ? would have the greatest impact on global biodiversity conservation, while effort was quantified based on the number of review publications addressing a particular question, which we used as a proxy for research effort. Using this approach we identified a set of questions that, despite being perceived as highly relevant, have been the focus of relatively few review publications over the past ten years. These questions covered a broad range of topics but predominantly tackled three major themes: the conservation and management of freshwater ecosystems, the role of societal structures in shaping interactions between people and the environment, and the impacts of conservation interventions. We see these questions as important knowledge gaps that have so far received insufficient attention and may need to be prioritised in future research

Revealing the pace of river landscape evolution during the Quaternary: recent developments in numerical dating methods

During the last twenty years, several technical developments have considerably intensified the use of numerical dating methods for the Quaternary. The study of fluvial archives has greatly benefited from these enhancements, opening new dating horizons for a range of archives at distinct time scales and thereby providing new insights into previously unanswered questions. In this contribution, we separately present the state of the art of five numerical dating methods that are frequently used in the fluvial context: radiocarbon, Luminescence, Electron Spin Resonance (ESR), 230Th/U and terrestrial cosmogenic nuclides (TCN) dating. We focus on the major recent developments for each technique that are most relevant for new dating applications in diverse fluvial environments and on explaining these for non-specialists. Therefore, essential information and precautions about sampling strategies in the field and/or laboratory procedures are provided. For each method, new and important implications for chronological reconstructions of Quaternary fluvial landscapes are discussed and, where necessary, exemplified by key case studies. A clear statement of the current technical limitations of these methods is included and forthcoming developments, which might possibly open new horizons for dating fluvial archives in the near future, are summarised

The 24/7 approach to promoting optimal welfare for captive wild animals

We have an ethical responsibility to provide captive animals with environments that allow them to experience good welfare. Husbandry activities are often scheduled for the convenience of care staff working within the constraints of the facility, rather than considering the biological and psychological requirements of the animals themselves. The animal welfare 24/7 across the lifespan concept provides a holistic framework to map features of the animal’s life cycle, taking into account their natural history, in relation to variations in the captive environment, across day and night, weekdays, weekends, and seasons. In order for animals to have the opportunity to thrive, we argue the need to consider their lifetime experience, integrated into the environments we provide, and with their perspective in mind. Here, we propose a welfare assessment tool based upon 14 criteria, to allow care staff to determine if their animals’ welfare needs are met. We conclude that animal habitat management will be enhanced with the use of integrated technologies that provide the animals with more opportunities to engineer their own environments, providing them with complexity, choice and control