High spatiotemporal variability of methane concentrations challenges estimates of emissions across vegetated coastal ecosystems

Coastal methane (CH4) emissions dominate the global ocean CH4 budget and can offset the "blue carbon" storage capacity of vegetated coastal ecosystems. However, current estimates lack systematic, high-resolution, and long-term data from these intrinsically heterogeneous environments, making coastal budgets sensitive to statistical assumptions and uncertainties. Using continuous CH4 concentrations, delta C-13-CH4 values, and CH4 sea-air fluxes across four seasons in three globally pervasive coastal habitats, we show that the CH4 distribution is spatially patchy over meter-scales and highly variable in time. Areas with mixed vegetation, macroalgae, and their surrounding sediments exhibited a spatiotemporal variability of surface water CH4 concentrations ranging two orders of magnitude (i.e., 6-460 nM CH4) with habitat-specific seasonal and diurnal patterns. We observed (1) delta C-13-CH signatures that revealed habitat-specific CH4 production and consumption pathways, (2) daily peak concentration events that could change >100% within hours across all habitats, and (3) a high thermal sensitivity of the CH4 distribution signified by apparent activation energies of similar to 1 eV that drove seasonal changes. Bootstrapping simulations show that scaling the CH4 distribution from few samples involves large errors, and that similar to 50 concentration samples per day are needed to resolve the scale and drivers of the natural variability and improve the certainty of flux calculations by up to 70%. Finally, we identify northern temperate coastal habitats with mixed vegetation and macroalgae as understudied but seasonally relevant atmospheric CH4 sources (i.e., releasing >= 100 mu mol CH4 m(-2) day(-1) in summer). Due to the large spatial and temporal heterogeneity of coastal environments, high-resolution measurements will improve the reliability of CH4 estimates and confine the habitat-specific contribution to regional and global CH4 budgets.Peer reviewe

Methane emissions offset atmospheric carbon dioxide uptake in coastal macroalgae, mixed vegetation and sediment ecosystems

Publisher Copyright: © 2023, The Author(s).Coastal ecosystems can efficiently remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere and are thus promoted for nature-based climate change mitigation. Natural methane (CH4) emissions from these ecosystems may counterbalance atmospheric CO2 uptake. Still, knowledge of mechanisms sustaining such CH4 emissions and their contribution to net radiative forcing remains scarce for globally prevalent macroalgae, mixed vegetation, and surrounding depositional sediment habitats. Here we show that these habitats emit CH4 in the range of 0.1 – 2.9 mg CH4 m−2 d−1 to the atmosphere, revealing in situ CH4 emissions from macroalgae that were sustained by divergent methanogenic archaea in anoxic microsites. Over an annual cycle, CO2-equivalent CH4 emissions offset 28 and 35% of the carbon sink capacity attributed to atmospheric CO2 uptake in the macroalgae and mixed vegetation habitats, respectively, and augment net CO2 release of unvegetated sediments by 57%. Accounting for CH4 alongside CO2 sea-air fluxes and identifying the mechanisms controlling these emissions is crucial to constrain the potential of coastal ecosystems as net atmospheric carbon sinks and develop informed climate mitigation strategies.Peer reviewe

Calibration of TCCON column-averaged CO2: the first aircraft campaign over European TCCON sites

The Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) is a ground-based network of Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS) sites around the globe, where the column abundances of CO2, CH4, N2O, CO and O2 are measured. CO2 is constrained with a precision better than 0.25% (1-σ). To achieve a similarly high accuracy, calibration to World Meteorological Organization (WMO) standards is required. This paper introduces the first aircraft calibration campaign of five European TCCON sites and a mobile FTS instrument. A series of WMO standards in-situ profiles were obtained over European TCCON sites via aircraft and compared with retrievals of CO2 column amounts from the TCCON instruments. The results of the campaign show that the FTS measurements are consistently biased 1.1% ± 0.2% low with respect to WMO standards, in agreement with previous TCCON calibration campaigns. The standard a priori profile for the TCCON FTS retrievals is shown to not add a bias. The same calibration factor is generated using aircraft profiles as a priori and with the TCCON standard a priori. With a calibration to WMO standards, the highly precise TCCON CO2 measurements of total column concentrations provide a suitable database for the calibration and validation of nadir-viewing satellite

Prediction of second neurological attack in patients with clinically isolated syndrome using support vector machines

The aim of this study is to predict the conversion from clinically isolated syndrome to clinically definite multiple sclerosis using support vector machines. The two groups of converters and non-converters are classified using features that were calculated from baseline data of 73 patients. The data consists of standard magnetic resonance images, binary lesion masks, and clinical and demographic information. 15 features were calculated and all combinations of them were iteratively tested for their predictive capacity using polynomial kernels and radial basis functions with leave-one-out cross-validation. The accuracy of this prediction is up to 86.4% with a sensitivity and specificity in the same range indicating that this is a feasible approach for the prediction of a second clinical attack in patients with clinically isolated syndromes, and that the chosen features are appropriate. The two features gender and location of onset lesions have been used in all feature combinations leading to a high accuracy suggesting that they are highly predictive. However, it is necessary to add supporting features to maximise the accuracy. © 2013 IEEE

Methane fluxes from the sea to the atmosphere across the Siberian shelf seas

The Laptev and East Siberian Seas have been proposed as a substantial source of methane (CH4) to the atmosphere. During summer 2014, we made unique high-resolution simultaneous measurements of CH4 in the atmosphere above, and surface waters of, the Laptev and East Siberian Seas. Turbulence-driven sea-air fluxes along the ship's track were derived from these observations; an average diffusive flux of 2.99mgm(-2) d(-1) was calculated for the Laptev Sea and for the ice-free portions of the western East Siberian Sea, 3.80mgm(-2)d(-1). Although seafloor bubble plumes were observed at two locations in the study area, our calculations suggest that regionally, turbulence-driven diffusive flux alone accounts for the observed atmospheric CH4 enhancements, with only a local, limited role for bubble fluxes, in contrast to earlier reports. CH4 in subice seawater in certain areas suggests that a short-lived flux also occurs annually at ice-out

High Emissions of Carbon Dioxide and Methane From the Coastal Baltic Sea at the End of a Summer Heat Wave

The summer heat wave in 2018 led to the highest recorded water temperatures since 1926 – up to 21 C – in bottom coastal waters of the Baltic Sea, with implications for the respiration patterns in these shallow coastal systems. We applied cavity ring-down spectrometer measurements to continuously monitor carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) surface-water concentrations, covering the coastal archipelagos of Sweden and Finland and the open and deeper parts of the Northern Baltic Proper. This allowed us to i) follow an upwelling event near the Swedish coast leading to elevated CO2 and moderate CH4 outgassing, and ii) to estimate CH4 sources and fluxes along the coast by investigating water column inventories and air-sea fluxes during a storm and an associated downwelling event. At the end of the heat wave, before the storm event, we found elevated CO2 (1583 µatm) and CH4 (70 nmol/L) concentrations. During the storm, a massive CO2 sea-air flux of up to 274 mmol m-2 d-1 was observed. While water-column CO2 concentrations were depleted during several hours of the storm, CH4 concentrations remained elevated. Overall, we found a positive relationship between CO2 and CH4 wind-driven sea-air fluxes, however, the highest CH4 fluxes were observed at low winds whereas highest CO2 fluxes were during peak winds, suggesting different sources and processes controlling their fluxes besides wind. We applied a box-model approach to estimate the CH4 supply needed to sustain these elevated CH4 concentrations and the results suggest a large source flux of CH4 to the water column of 2.5 mmol m-2 d-1. These results are qualitatively supported by acoustic observations of vigorous and widespread outgassing from the sediments, with flares that could be traced throughout the water column penetrating the pycnocline and reaching the sea surface. The results suggest that the heat wave triggered CO2 and CH4 fluxes in the coastal zones that are comparable with maximum emission rates found in other hot spots, such as boreal and arctic lakes and wetlands. Further, the results suggest that heat waves are as important for CO2 and CH4 sea-air fluxes as the ice break up in spring.Peer reviewe

Methane emissions offset atmospheric carbon dioxide uptake in coastal macroalgae, mixed vegetation and sediment ecosystems

Publisher Copyright: © 2023, The Author(s).Coastal ecosystems can efficiently remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere and are thus promoted for nature-based climate change mitigation. Natural methane (CH4) emissions from these ecosystems may counterbalance atmospheric CO2 uptake. Still, knowledge of mechanisms sustaining such CH4 emissions and their contribution to net radiative forcing remains scarce for globally prevalent macroalgae, mixed vegetation, and surrounding depositional sediment habitats. Here we show that these habitats emit CH4 in the range of 0.1 – 2.9 mg CH4 m−2 d−1 to the atmosphere, revealing in situ CH4 emissions from macroalgae that were sustained by divergent methanogenic archaea in anoxic microsites. Over an annual cycle, CO2-equivalent CH4 emissions offset 28 and 35% of the carbon sink capacity attributed to atmospheric CO2 uptake in the macroalgae and mixed vegetation habitats, respectively, and augment net CO2 release of unvegetated sediments by 57%. Accounting for CH4 alongside CO2 sea-air fluxes and identifying the mechanisms controlling these emissions is crucial to constrain the potential of coastal ecosystems as net atmospheric carbon sinks and develop informed climate mitigation strategies.Peer reviewe

Carbon geochemistry of plankton-dominated samples in the Laptev and East Siberian shelves: Contrasts in suspended particle composition

Recent Arctic studies suggest that sea ice decline and permafrost thawing will affect phytoplankton dynamics and stimulate heterotrophic communities. However, in what way the plankton composition will change as the warming proceeds remains elusive. Here we investigate the chemical signature of the plankton-dominated fraction of particulate organic matter (POM) collected along the Siberian Shelf. POM (> 10μm) samples were analysed using molecular biomarkers (CuO oxidation and IP25) and dual-carbon isotopes (δ13C and Δ14C). In addition, surface water chemical properties were integrated with the POM (< 10μm) dataset to understand the link between plankton composition and environmental conditions. ä13C and 114C exhibited a large variability in the POM (< 10μm) distribution while the content of terrestrial biomarkers in the POM was negligible. In the Laptev Sea (LS), (δ13C and Δ14C) of POM (< 10μm) suggested a heterotrophic environment in which dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from the Lena River was the primary source of metabolisable carbon. Within the Lena plume, terrestrial DOC probably became part of the food web via bacteria uptake and subsequently transferred to relatively other heterotrophic communities (e.g. dinoflagellates). Moving eastwards toward the sea-ice-dominated East Siberian Sea (ESS), the system became progressively more autotrophic. Comparison between δ13C of POM (< 10μm) samples and CO2aq concentrations revealed that the carbon isotope fractionation increased moving towards the easternmost and most productive stations. In a warming scenario characterised by enhanced terrestrial DOC release (thawing permafrost) and progressive sea ice decline, heterotrophic conditions might persist in the LS while the nutrient-rich Pacific inflow will likely stimulate greater primary productivity in the ESS. The contrasting trophic conditions will result in a sharp gradient in δ13C between the LS and ESS, similar to what is documented in our semi-synoptic study