Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0-65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0-71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8-48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6-56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Track D Social Science, Human Rights and Political Science

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/138414/1/jia218442.pd

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian metaregression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods: We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings: Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation: Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Characteristics of Subjects at Baseline by D₃ Dose Group.

<p>*Dose groups significantly different p<0.05</p><p>^a n = 59, one subject had unknown HIV acquisition</p><p>^b n = 40 for subjects <20y with calculated Z scores for body size variables (20 in 4000 and 20 in 7000IU/d group) n = 20 for subject ≥20y (10 in 4000 and 10 in 7000IU/d group)</p><p>^c n = 54 subjects with date of diagnosis for HIV (28 in 4000 and 26 in 7000IU/d group)</p><p>^d n = 59 subjects with date of initiation of ART treatment (30 in 4000 and 29 in 7000IU/d group)</p><p>^e n = 56 subjects with HIV CDC classification data and CD4 counts from medical record review (27 in 4000 and 29 in 7000IU/d group)</p><p>^f n = 59 with CD4% baseline (29 in 4000 and 30 in 7000IU/d group)</p><p>^g n = 53 RNA viral load at baseline (26 in 4000 and 27 in 7000IU/d group)</p><p>^h Tenofovir was used only in combination with NNRTI-based regimens.</p><p>HIV, human immunodeficiency virus; BMI, body mass index; CDC, Center for Disease Control; Clinical categories: N = asymptomatic, A = mildly symptomatic, B = moderately symptomatic, and C = severely symptomatic with AIDS defining illness; CD4 cluster of differentiation; PI, protease inhibitor-based anti-retroviral treatment (ART); NNRTI, non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase-based ART.</p><p>Characteristics of Subjects at Baseline by D₃ Dose Group.</p

Vitamin D₃ Supplementation in Batswana Children and Adults with HIV: A Pilot Double Blind Randomized Controlled Trial

<div><p>Objectives</p><p>Since vitamin D insufficiency is common worldwide in people with HIV, we explored safety and efficacy of high dose cholecalciferol (D₃) in Botswana, and evaluated potential modifiers of serum 25 hydroxy vitamin D change (Δ25D).</p><p>Design</p><p>Prospective randomized double-blind 12-week pilot trial of subjects ages 5.0–50.9 years.</p><p>Methods</p><p>Sixty subjects randomized within five age groups to either 4000 or 7000IU per day of D₃ and evaluated for vitamin D, parathyroid hormone, HIV, safety and growth status. Efficacy was defined as serum 25 hydroxy vitamin D (25D) ≥32ng/mL, and safety as no simultaneous elevation of serum calcium and 25D. Also assessed were HIV plasma viral RNA viral load (VL), CD4%, anti-retroviral therapy (ART) regime, and height-adjusted (HAZ), weight-adjusted (WAZ) and Body Mass Index (BMIZ) Z scores.</p><p>Results</p><p>Subjects were 50% male, age (mean±SD) 19.5±11.8 years, CD4% 31.8±10.4, with baseline VL log₁₀ range of <1.4 to 3.8 and VL detectable (>1.4) in 22%. From baseline to 12 weeks, 25D increased from 36±9ng/ml to 56±18ng/ml (p<0.0001) and 68% and 90% had 25D ≥32ng/ml, respectively (p = 0.02). Δ25D was similar by dose. No subjects had simultaneously increased serum calcium and 25D. WAZ and BMIZ improved by 12 weeks (p<0.04). HAZ and CD4% increased and VL decreased in the 7000IU/d group (p<0.04). Younger (5–13y) and older (30–50y) subjects had greater Δ25D than those 14–29y (26±17 and 28±12 vs. 11±11ng/ml, respectively, p≤0.001). Δ25D was higher with efavirenz or nevirapine compared to protease inhibitor based treatment (22±12, 27±17, vs. 13±10, respectively, p≤0.03).</p><p>Conclusions</p><p>In a pilot study in Botswana, 12-week high dose D₃ supplementation was safe and improved vitamin D, growth and HIV status; age and ART regimen were significant effect modifiers.</p><p>Trial Registration</p><p>ClinicalTrials.gov <a href="https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02189902" target="_blank">NCT02189902</a></p></div

Serum 25D Before and After High Dose D₃ Supplementation.

<p><b>A</b>. By Dose group (4000 IU/d or 7000IU/d). * Change in 25D significantly different from baseline at both 6 and 12 weeks, p<0.01. <b>B</b>. By age group. ¥ Change in 25D significantly less in subjects ages 14–29 y than those ages 4–13 y and 30–50 y age groups, p<0.004. <b>C</b>. By anti-retroviral therapy (ART) regime. ¥ Change in 25D significantly greater in Efavirenz and Nevirapine groups than in PI (protease inhibitor) or tenofovir groups, p<0.03</p

Clinical and laboratory values for subjects over time by D₃ dose group.

<p>*Significantly different from baseline within the dose group at p<0.05 (LME model adjusted for age, sex and baseline value)</p><p>**p≤0.01</p><p>***p<0.001</p><p>^a n = 49, Bioavailable 25(OH)D and DBP at baseline (24 at 4000 and 25 at 7000IU/d D₃) and n = 51 12 weeks visit (26 at 4000 and 25 at 7000IU/d D₃)</p><p>^b n = 56, CD4 baseline and 12 weeks visit (27 at 4000 and 29 at 7000IU/d D₃)</p><p>^c n = 41, RNA viral load analysis baseline and 12-week visit (20 at 4000 and 21 at 7000IU/d vit D₃)—as these 41 subjects had VL run at the same laboratory both times—baseline and 12 weeks</p><p>^d n = 40 subjects <20y with calculated Z scores for body size variables (20 in 4000 and 20 in 7000IU/d group). HIV, human immunodeficiency virus; BMI, body mass index</p><p>CD4, cluster of differentiation; PTH, parathyroid hormone; DBP, vitamin D binding protein.</p><p>Clinical and laboratory values for subjects over time by D₃ dose group.</p

Male circumcision for HIV prevention in PNG: a summary of research evidence and recommendations for public health

In 2005, a clinical trial in South Africa found that circumcision of young men could reduce their risk of acquiring HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) infection by over 60%. In the following year, two more trials in Africa confirmed this finding, leading the World Health Organization to recommend male circumcision as a public health strategy for HIV prevention in high-incidence countries. In order to inform public health policy in Papua New Guinea (PNG), two major research projects were initiated with the goals of investigating the status of penile cutting practices and assessing understandings, acceptability, feasibility and cost-effectiveness of male circumcision for HIV prevention. In addition, behavioural surveillance surveys systematically asked questions on penile cutting practices and an ethnographic literature review informed historical perspectives of penile cutting in PNG. Key findings from these research activities were presented at a National Policy Forum on Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention held in Port Moresby in November 2011. The Forum made three key recommendations: (1) the formation of a joint National Department of Health/National AIDS Council Secretariat Policy Committee on male circumcision; (2) the establishment of an integrated harm reduction program; and (3) that future policy on wide-scale roll-out of male circumcision for HIV prevention in PNG be informed by a combination of data from (a) male circumcision intervention pilot programs and (b) research on the potential protective effect of other forms of penile cutting