Towards generic modelling of hospital wards: Reuse and redevelopment of simple models

This is the final version. Available on open access from Taylor & Francis via the DOI in this recordGeneric simulation models are designed to enable model reuse. We argue that there are two weaknesses within the generic simulation modelling literature. Firstly, that generic models sacrifice the relative simplicity of a bespoke simulation model for flexibility. Secondly, that generic models are published in conceptual form only. If researchers cannot access computer implementation of models, then there is little incentive or benefit to recode one over coding a simpler bespoke simulation model. We introduce an incremental approach to generic modelling in discrete-event simulation. We develop an archetype setting-specific generic model of a hospital ward. The archetype model is first developed and applied in a rehabilitation ward setting. Then a second team applies the model in a specialised intensive care setting. We report the successes, obstacles and redevelopment needed for reuse of the generic model along with how the results of these studies were used to inform healthcare delivery.National Institute for Health Research (NIHR

A mixed methods study of the impact of consultant overnight working in an English Emergency Department

This is the final version. Available on open access from BMJ Publishing Group via the DOI in this recordBackground There is a growing expectation that consultant-level doctors should be present within an ED overnight. However, there is a lack of robust evidence substantiating the impact on patient waiting times, safety or the workforce. Objectives To evaluate the impact of consultant-level doctors overnight working in ED in a large university hospital. Methods We conducted a controlled interrupted time series analysis to study ED waiting times before and after the introduction of consultant night working. Adverse event reports (AER) were used as a surrogate for patient safety. We conducted interviews with medical and nursing staff to explore attitudes to night work. Results The reduction seen in average time in department relative to the day, following the introduction of consultant was non-significant ('12 min; 95% CI '28 to 4, p=0.148). Analysis of hourly arrivals and departures indicated that overnight work was inherited from the day. There were three (0.9%) moderate and 0 severe AERs in 1 year. The workforce reported that night working had a negative impact on sleep patterns, performance and well-being and there were mixed views about the benefits of consultant night presence. Additional time off during the day acted as compensation for night work but resulted in reduced contact with ED teams. Conclusions Our single-site study was unable to demonstrate a clinically important impact of consultant night working on total time patients spend in the department. Our analysis suggests there may be more potential to reduce total time in department during the day, at our study site. Negative impacts on well-being, and likely resistance to consultant night working should not be ignored. Further studies of night working are recommended to substantiate our results.National Institute for Health Research (NIHR)University Hospital Southampto

Comparison and Mapping Facilitate Relation Discovery and Predication

Relational concepts play a central role in human perception and cognition, but little is known about how they are acquired. For example, how do we come to understand that physical force is a higher-order multiplicative relation between mass and acceleration, or that two circles are the same-shape in the same way that two squares are? A recent model of relational learning, DORA (Discovery of Relations by Analogy; Doumas, Hummel & Sandhofer, 2008), predicts that comparison and analogical mapping play a central role in the discovery and predication of novel higher-order relations. We report two experiments testing and confirming this prediction

Immunosuppression and the Risk of Post-Transplant Malignancy Among Cadaveric First Kidney Transplant Recipients

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/73619/1/j.1600-6135.2003.00274.x.pd

The effect of oxygen saturation targeting on retinal blood vessel growth using retinal image data from the BOOST-II UK Trial

Purpose: Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is a disorder of developing retinal blood vessels in preterm infants. The purpose of this nested study was to investigate the effects of higher (91-95%) and lower (85-89%) oxygen saturation (SpO2) targeting on retinal blood vessel growth in preterm infants. Methods: Retinal blood vessel growth in the higher (91-95%) and lower (85-89%) oxygen saturation (SpO2) targeting groups was compared. Suitable RetCam (Clarity, Pleasanton, CA, USA) images collected in the BOOST-II UK trial were used. The distances between the centre of the optic disc and the ROP ridge in the temporal and nasal retina were measured in pixel units. Results: Images from 38 infants were studied, 20 from the higher SpO2 target group and 18 from the lower SpO2 target group. On average, temporal blood vessels extended further from the optic disc than nasal blood vessels, mean (standard deviation (SD)) 463.39 (55.05) pixels compared with 360.13 (44.47) pixels, respectively, P<0.0001. Temporal blood vessels extended less far from the optic disc in the higher SpO2 target group than in the lower SpO2 target group: mean (SD) 449.83 (56.16) pixels compared with 480.02 (49.94), respectively, P=0.055. Nasal retinal blood vessel measurements were broadly similar in the higher and lower SpO2 target groups; mean (SD) 353.96 (41.95) compared with 370.00 (48.82) pixels, respectively, P=0.38. Conclusions: Relatively high oxygen saturation targeting (91-95%) was associated with a trend (P=0.055) towards reduced retinal blood vessel growth in this study of preterm infants

Effect of an education program on improving knowledge of schizophrenia among parents of junior and senior high school students in Japan

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Early detection and intervention in schizophrenia are important in improving quality of life after treatment and are major issues in psychiatric care. Therefore, it is necessary to increase knowledge of schizophrenia among the general public. Among parents of junior and senior high school students in Japan, we compared rates of correct answers for items on knowledge of schizophrenia and ability to discriminate this psychosis from other disorders on questionnaires given before and after viewing a web-based education program.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Questionnaires were distributed to 2,690 parents. The program was developed to help parents obtain a basic understanding of schizophrenia and to emphasize the necessity of early detection.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Before the program, the rate of correct answers was 77% for items concerning basic knowledge of schizophrenia, 47% for "discrimination of schizophrenia symptoms," and 30% for "discrimination of prodromal symptoms." The program resulted in an improvement in basic knowledge of schizophrenia, discrimination of schizophrenia symptoms, and discrimination of prodromal symptoms (<it>P </it>< 0.001 for all).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our web-based education program was useful in helping parents acquire a basic knowledge of schizophrenia and discriminate correctly the symptoms of schizophrenia.</p

Female house sparrows "count on" male genes: experimental evidence for MHC-dependent mate preference in birds

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Females can potentially assess the quality of potential mates using their secondary sexual traits, and obtain "good genes" that increase offspring fitness. Another potential indirect benefit from mating preferences is genetic compatibility, which does not require extravagant or viability indicator traits. Several studies with mammals and fish indicate that the genes of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) influence olfactory cues and mating preferences, and such preferences confer genetic benefits to offspring. We investigated whether individual MHC diversity (class I) influences mating preferences in house sparrows (<it>Passer domesticus</it>).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Overall, we found no evidence that females preferred males with high individual MHC diversity. Yet, when we considered individual MHC allelic diversity of the females, we found that females with a low number of alleles were most attracted to males carrying a high number of MHC alleles, which might reflect a mating-up preference by allele counting.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This is the first experimental evidence for MHC-dependent mating preferences in an avian species to our knowledge. Our findings raise questions about the underlying mechanisms through which birds discriminate individual MHC diversity among conspecifics, and they suggest a novel mechanism through which mating preferences might promote the evolution of MHC polymorphisms and generate positive selection for duplicated MHC loci.</p

Generalization Mediates Sensitivity to Complex Odor Features in the Honeybee

Animals use odors as signals for mate, kin, and food recognition, a strategy which appears ubiquitous and successful despite the high intrinsic variability of naturally-occurring odor quantities. Stimulus generalization, or the ability to decide that two objects, though readily distinguishable, are similar enough to afford the same consequence [1], could help animals adjust to variation in odor signals without losing sensitivity to key inter-stimulus differences. The present study was designed to investigate whether an animal's ability to generalize learned associations to novel odors can be influenced by the nature of the associated outcome. We use a classical conditioning paradigm for studying olfactory learning in honeybees [2] to show that honeybees conditioned on either a fixed- or variable-proportion binary odor mixture generalize learned responses to novel proportions of the same mixture even when inter-odor differences are substantial. We also show that the resulting olfactory generalization gradients depend critically on both the nature of the stimulus-reward paradigm and the intrinsic variability of the conditioned stimulus. The reward dependency we observe must be cognitive rather than perceptual in nature, and we argue that outcome-dependent generalization is necessary for maintaining sensitivity to inter-odor differences in complex olfactory scenes

Immune Activation, Cd4+ T Cell Counts, and Viremia Exhibit Oscillatory Patterns over Time in Patients with Highly Resistant HIV Infection

The rates of immunologic and clinical progression are lower in patients with drug-resistant HIV compared to wild-type HIV. This difference is not fully explained by viral load. It has been argued that reductions in T cell activation and/or viral fitness might result in preserved target cells and an altered relationship between the level of viremia and the rate of CD4+ T cell loss. We tested this hypothesis over time in a cohort of patients with highly resistant HIV. Fifty-four antiretroviral-treated patients with multi-drug resistant HIV and detectable plasma HIV RNA were followed longitudinally. CD4+ T cell counts and HIV RNA levels were measured every 4 weeks and T cell activation (CD38/HLA-DR) was measured every 16 weeks. We found that the levels of CD4+ T cell activation over time were a strong independent predictor of CD4+ T cell counts while CD8+ T cell activation was more strongly associated with viremia. Using spectral analysis, we found strong evidence for oscillatory (or cyclic) behavior in CD4+ T cell counts, HIV RNA levels, and T cell activation. Each of the cell populations exhibited an oscillatory behavior with similar frequencies. Collectively, these data suggest that there may be a mechanistic link between T cell activation, CD4+ T cell counts, and viremia and lends support for the hypothesis of altered predator-prey dynamics as a possible explanation of the stability of CD4+ T cell counts in the presence of sustained multi-drug resistant viremia

Evidence for the ‘Good Genes’ Model: Association of MHC Class II DRB Alleles with Ectoparasitism and Reproductive State in the Neotropical Lesser Bulldog Bat, Noctilio albiventris

The adaptive immune system has a major impact on parasite resistance and life history strategies. Immunological defence is costly both in terms of immediate activation and long-term maintenance. The ‘good genes’ model predicts that males with genotypes that promote a good disease resistance have the ability to allocate more resources to reproductive effort which favours the transmission of good alleles into future generations. Our study shows a correlation between immune gene constitution (Major Histocompatibility Complex, MHC class II DRB), ectoparasite loads (ticks and bat flies) and the reproductive state in a neotropical bat, Noctilio albiventris. Infestation rates with ectoparasites were linked to specific Noal-DRB alleles, differed among roosts, increased with body size and co-varied with reproductive state particularly in males. Non-reproductive adult males were more infested with ectoparasites than reproductively active males, and they had more often an allele (Noal-DRB*02) associated with a higher tick infestation than reproductively active males or subadults. We conclude that the individual immune gene constitution affects ectoparasite susceptibility, and contributes to fitness relevant trade-offs in male N. albiventris as suggested by the ‘good genes’ model