Preliminary analysis of LDEF instrument A0187-1: Chemistry of Micrometeoroids Experiment

The Chemistry of Micrometeoroids Experiment (CME) exposed approximately 0.8 sq. m of gold on the Long Duration Exposure Facility's (LDEF's) trailing edge (location A03) and approximately 1.1 sq. m of aluminum in the forward-facing A11 location. The most significant results to date relate to the discovery of unmelted pyroxene and olivine fragments associated with natural cosmic dust impacts. The latter are sufficiently large for detailed phase studies, and they serve to demonstrate that recovery of unmelted dust fragments is a realistic prospect for further dust experiments that will employ more advanced collector media. We also discovered that man-made debris impacts occur on the LDEF's trailing edge with substantially higher frequency than expected, suggesting that orbital debris in highly elliptical orbits may have been somewhat underestimated

Planetary Candidates Observed by Kepler, III: Analysis of the First 16 Months of Data

New transiting planet candidates are identified in sixteen months (May 2009 - September 2010) of data from the Kepler spacecraft. Nearly five thousand periodic transit-like signals are vetted against astrophysical and instrumental false positives yielding 1,091 viable new planet candidates, bringing the total count up to over 2,300. Improved vetting metrics are employed, contributing to higher catalog reliability. Most notable is the noise-weighted robust averaging of multi-quarter photo-center offsets derived from difference image analysis which identifies likely background eclipsing binaries. Twenty-two months of photometry are used for the purpose of characterizing each of the new candidates. Ephemerides (transit epoch, T_0, and orbital period, P) are tabulated as well as the products of light curve modeling: reduced radius (Rp/R*), reduced semi-major axis (d/R*), and impact parameter (b). The largest fractional increases are seen for the smallest planet candidates (197% for candidates smaller than 2Re compared to 52% for candidates larger than 2Re) and those at longer orbital periods (123% for candidates outside of 50-day orbits versus 85% for candidates inside of 50-day orbits). The gains are larger than expected from increasing the observing window from thirteen months (Quarter 1-- Quarter 5) to sixteen months (Quarter 1 -- Quarter 6). This demonstrates the benefit of continued development of pipeline analysis software. The fraction of all host stars with multiple candidates has grown from 17% to 20%, and the paucity of short-period giant planets in multiple systems is still evident. The progression toward smaller planets at longer orbital periods with each new catalog release suggests that Earth-size planets in the Habitable Zone are forthcoming if, indeed, such planets are abundant.Comment: Submitted to ApJS. Machine-readable tables are available at http://kepler.nasa.gov, http://archive.stsci.edu/kepler/results.html, and the NASA Exoplanet Archiv

The Incentive Effects of Higher Education Subsidies on Student Effort

This paper uses a game-theoretic model to analyze the disincentive effects of low-tuition policies on student effort. The model of parent and student responses to tuition subsidies is then calibrated using information from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 and the High School and Beyond Sophomore Cohort: 1980-92. I find that although subsidizing tuition increases enrollment rates, it reduces student effort. This follows from the fact that a high-subsidy, low-tuition policy causes an increase in the percentage of less able and less highly motivated college graduates. Additionall

Understory Bird Communities in Amazonian Rainforest Fragments: Species Turnover through 25 Years Post-Isolation in Recovering Landscapes

Inferences about species loss following habitat conversion are typically drawn from short-term surveys, which cannot reconstruct long-term temporal dynamics of extinction and colonization. A long-term view can be critical, however, to determine the stability of communities within fragments. Likewise, landscape dynamics must be considered, as second growth structure and overall forest cover contribute to processes in fragments. Here we examine bird communities in 11 Amazonian rainforest fragments of 1–100 ha, beginning before the fragments were isolated in the 1980s, and continuing through 2007. Using a method that accounts for imperfect detection, we estimated extinction and colonization based on standardized mist-net surveys within discreet time intervals (1–2 preisolation samples and 4–5 post-isolation samples). Between preisolation and 2007, all fragments lost species in an area-dependent fashion, with loss of as few as <10% of preisolation species from 100-ha fragments, but up to 70% in 1-ha fragments. Analysis of individual time intervals revealed that the 2007 result was not due to gradual species loss beginning at isolation; both extinction and colonization occurred in every time interval. In the last two samples, 2000 and 2007, extinction and colonization were approximately balanced. Further, 97 of 101 species netted before isolation were detected in at least one fragment in 2007. Although a small subset of species is extremely vulnerable to fragmentation, and predictably goes extinct in fragments, developing second growth in the matrix around fragments encourages recolonization in our landscapes. Species richness in these fragments now reflects local turnover, not long-term attrition of species. We expect that similar processes could be operating in other fragmented systems that show unexpectedly low extinction

A Phylogeny and Timescale for the Evolution of Pseudocheiridae (Marsupialia: Diprotodontia) in Australia and New Guinea

Pseudocheiridae (Marsupialia: Diprotodontia) is a family of endemic Australasian arboreal folivores, more commonly known as ringtail possums. Seventeen extant species are grouped into six genera (Pseudocheirus, Pseudochirulus, Hemibelideus, Petauroides, Pseudochirops, Petropseudes). Pseudochirops and Pseudochirulus are the only genera with representatives on New Guinea and surrounding western islands. Here, we examine phylogenetic relationships among 13 of the 17 extant pseudocheirid species based on protein-coding portions of the ApoB, BRCA1, ENAM, IRBP, Rag1, and vWF genes. Maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian methods were used to estimate phylogenetic relationships. Two different relaxed molecular clock methods were used to estimate divergence times. Bayesian and maximum parsimony methods were used to reconstruct ancestral character states for geographic provenance and maximum elevation occupied. We find robust support for the monophyly of Pseudocheirinae (Pseudochirulus + Pseudocheirus), Hemibelidinae (Hemibelideus + Petauroides), and Pseudochiropsinae (Pseudochirops + Petropseudes), respectively, and for an association of Pseudocheirinae and Hemibelidinae to the exclusion of Pseudochiropsinae. Within Pseudochiropsinae, Petropseudes grouped more closely with the New Guinean Pseudochirops spp. than with the Australian Pseudochirops archeri, rendering Pseudochirops paraphyletic. New Guinean species belonging to Pseudochirops are monophyletic, as are New Guinean species belonging to Pseudochirulus. Molecular dates and ancestral reconstructions of geographic provenance combine to suggest that the ancestors of extant New Guinean Pseudochirops spp. and Pseudochirulus spp. dispersed from Australia to New Guinea ∼12.1–6.5 Ma (Pseudochirops) and ∼6.0–2.4 Ma (Pseudochirulus). Ancestral state reconstructions support the hypothesis that occupation of high elevations (>3000 m) is a derived feature that evolved on the terminal branch leading to Pseudochirops cupreus, and either evolved in the ancestor of Pseudochirulus forbesi, Pseudochirulus mayeri, and Pseudochirulus caroli, with subsequent loss in P. caroli, or evolved independently in P. mayeri and P. forbesi. Divergence times within the New Guinean Pseudochirops clade are generally coincident with the uplift of the central cordillera and other highlands. Diversification within New Guinean Pseudochirulus occurred in the Plio-Pleistocene after the establishment of the Central Range and other highlands

Denial of long-term issues with agriculture on tropical peatlands will have devastating consequences

Non peer reviewe

Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth’s tropical forests

The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (−9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth’s climate

The “edge effect” phenomenon: deriving population abundance patterns from individual animal movement decisions

Edge effects have been observed in a vast spectrum of animal populations. They occur where two conjoining habitats interact to create ecological phenomena that are not present in either habitat separately. On the individual-level, an edge effect is a change in behavioral tendency on or near the edge. On the population-level, it is a pattern of population abundance near an edge that cannot be explained in terms of either habitat in isolation. That these two levels of description exist suggests there ought to be a mathematical link between them. Here, we make inroads into providing such a link, deriving analytic expressions describing oft-observed population abundance patterns from a model of movement decisions near edges. Depending on the model parameters, we can see positive, negative, or transitional edge effects emerge. Importantly, the distance over which animals make their decisions to move between habitats turns out to be a key factor in quantifying the magnitude of certain observed edge effects