Time to recovery from moderate acute malnutrition and its predictors among children aged 6–59 months in Fedis Woreda, East Hararghe Zone, Eastern Ethiopia

BackgroundAcute malnutrition is a major global public health problem, particularly in low-and middle-income countries. A targeted supplementary feeding program is an approach recommended to address moderate acute malnutrition in food-insecure settings. Preventing and treating moderate acute malnutrition requires identifying factors shown to affect the treatment outcome and duration of stay on treatment. This study aimed to determine the time to recovery from moderate acute malnutrition and its predictors among children aged 6–59 months in Fedis Woreda East Hararghe Zone, Eastern Ethiopia, from January 1 to December 31, 2022.MethodsA facility-based retrospective cohort study was conducted on 567 children with moderate acute malnutrition in Fedis Woreda, East Hararghe Zone, eastern Ethiopia. A multi-stage sampling technique was employed, and data was collected using a structured checklist. Data were extracted from randomly selected records after obtaining ethical clearance. Data were cleaned, coded, entered into EpiData 4.6, and analyzed using STATA/SE version 14. Descriptive statistics and analytic analysis schemes, including bivariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models, were conducted, and finally, statistical significance was considered at p < 0.05.ResultsThe overall median time to recovery was 16 weeks. The major predicting factors for time to recovery among children aged 6–59 months were admission with a mid-upper arm circumference of 12.1–12.4 centimeters (AHR = 1.02, 95% CI: 1.01–1.19), access to transportation to facilities (AHR = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.36–0.81), children using specialized nutritious foods (RUSF; AHR = 1.96, 95% CI: 1.36–3.11), and children who had diarrhea (AHR = 0.4, 95% CI: 0.31–0.71).ConclusionThe study found a median recovery time of 16 weeks for children with targeted supplementary feeding. Significant predictors included admission with a MUAC of 12.1–12.4 centimeters, transportation access, RUSF use, and the presence of diarrhea. These findings highlighted the importance of these factors in determining and improving recovery from moderate-acute malnutrition

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

Background Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980–2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. Methods We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package—a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Findings Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87–2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91–1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79–3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63–2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8–39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. Interpretation Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact

Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

Background: Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities. Methods: We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs. Findings: Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4–40·7) to 50·3% (50·0–50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1–46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5–29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2–89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664–711) of the 1830 (1797–1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6–80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6–59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017. Interpretation: Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation

Mapping geographical inequalities in oral rehydration therapy coverage in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

Background Oral rehydration solution (ORS) is a form of oral rehydration therapy (ORT) for diarrhoea that has the potential to drastically reduce child mortality; yet, according to UNICEF estimates, less than half of children younger than 5 years with diarrhoea in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) received ORS in 2016. A variety of recommended home fluids (RHF) exist as alternative forms of ORT; however, it is unclear whether RHF prevent child mortality. Previous studies have shown considerable variation between countries in ORS and RHF use, but subnational variation is unknown. This study aims to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of relative and absolute coverage of ORS, RHF, and ORT (use of either ORS or RHF) in LMICs. Methods We used a Bayesian geostatistical model including 15 spatial covariates and data from 385 household surveys across 94 LMICs to estimate annual proportions of children younger than 5 years of age with diarrhoea who received ORS or RHF (or both) on continuous continent-wide surfaces in 2000-17, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. Additionally, we analysed geographical inequality in coverage across administrative units and estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths averted by increased coverage over the study period. Uncertainty in the mean coverage estimates was calculated by taking 250 draws from the posterior joint distribution of the model and creating uncertainty intervals (UIs) with the 2 center dot 5th and 97 center dot 5th percentiles of those 250 draws. Findings While ORS use among children with diarrhoea increased in some countries from 2000 to 2017, coverage remained below 50% in the majority (62 center dot 6%; 12 417 of 19 823) of second administrative-level units and an estimated 6 519 000 children (95% UI 5 254 000-7 733 000) with diarrhoea were not treated with any form of ORT in 2017. Increases in ORS use corresponded with declines in RHF in many locations, resulting in relatively constant overall ORT coverage from 2000 to 2017. Although ORS was uniformly distributed subnationally in some countries, within-country geographical inequalities persisted in others; 11 countries had at least a 50% difference in one of their units compared with the country mean. Increases in ORS use over time were correlated with declines in RHF use and in diarrhoeal mortality in many locations, and an estimated 52 230 diarrhoeal deaths (36 910-68 860) were averted by scaling up of ORS coverage between 2000 and 2017. Finally, we identified key subnational areas in Colombia, Nigeria, and Sudan as examples of where diarrhoeal mortality remains higher than average, while ORS coverage remains lower than average. Interpretation To our knowledge, this study is the first to produce and map subnational estimates of ORS, RHF, and ORT coverage and attributable child diarrhoeal deaths across LMICs from 2000 to 2017, allowing for tracking progress over time. Our novel results, combined with detailed subnational estimates of diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality, can support subnational needs assessments aimed at furthering policy makers' understanding of within-country disparities. Over 50 years after the discovery that led to this simple, cheap, and life-saving therapy, large gains in reducing mortality could still be made by reducing geographical inequalities in ORS coverage. Copyright (c) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe

Global, regional, and national cancer incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-Adjusted life-years for 29 cancer groups, 1990 to 2017 : A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study

Importance: Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data. Objective: To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning. Evidence Review: We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-Adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence. Findings: In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs). Conclusions and Relevance: The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care. © 2019 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.Peer reviewe

Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017

A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic

Mapping geographical inequalities in oral rehydration therapy coverage in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17

Background Oral rehydration solution (ORS) is a form of oral rehydration therapy (ORT) for diarrhoea that has the potential to drastically reduce child mortality; yet, according to UNICEF estimates, less than half of children younger than 5 years with diarrhoea in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) received ORS in 2016. A variety of recommended home fluids (RHF) exist as alternative forms of ORT; however, it is unclear whether RHF prevent child mortality. Previous studies have shown considerable variation between countries in ORS and RHF use, but subnational variation is unknown. This study aims to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of relative and absolute coverage of ORS, RHF, and ORT (use of either ORS or RHF) in LMICs. Methods We used a Bayesian geostatistical model including 15 spatial covariates and data from 385 household surveys across 94 LMICs to estimate annual proportions of children younger than 5 years of age with diarrhoea who received ORS or RHF (or both) on continuous continent-wide surfaces in 2000–17, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. Additionally, we analysed geographical inequality in coverage across administrative units and estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths averted by increased coverage over the study period. Uncertainty in the mean coverage estimates was calculated by taking 250 draws from the posterior joint distribution of the model and creating uncertainty intervals (UIs) with the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of those 250 draws. Findings While ORS use among children with diarrhoea increased in some countries from 2000 to 2017, coverage remained below 50% in the majority (62·6%; 12 417 of 19 823) of second administrative-level units and an estimated 6 519 000 children (95% UI 5 254 000–7 733 000) with diarrhoea were not treated with any form of ORT in 2017. Increases in ORS use corresponded with declines in RHF in many locations, resulting in relatively constant overall ORT coverage from 2000 to 2017. Although ORS was uniformly distributed subnationally in some countries, within-country geographical inequalities persisted in others; 11 countries had at least a 50% difference in one of their units compared with the country mean. Increases in ORS use over time were correlated with declines in RHF use and in diarrhoeal mortality in many locations, and an estimated 52 230 diarrhoeal deaths (36 910–68 860) were averted by scaling up of ORS coverage between 2000 and 2017. Finally, we identified key subnational areas in Colombia, Nigeria, and Sudan as examples of where diarrhoeal mortality remains higher than average, while ORS coverage remains lower than average. Interpretation To our knowledge, this study is the first to produce and map subnational estimates of ORS, RHF, and ORT coverage and attributable child diarrhoeal deaths across LMICs from 2000 to 2017, allowing for tracking progress over time. Our novel results, combined with detailed subnational estimates of diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality, can support subnational needs assessments aimed at furthering policy makers' understanding of within-country disparities. Over 50 years after the discovery that led to this simple, cheap, and life-saving therapy, large gains in reducing mortality could still be made by reducing geographical inequalities in ORS coverage

Assessing Predictors of Academic Performance for NMEI Curriculum-Based Medical Students Found in the Southern Ethiopia

Background. In Ethiopia since 2012, the Ethiopian Federal Ministry of Health and Education implemented a new medical education initiative in 13 institutions. Currently, as a nation, very little is known about the predictors of academic performance for new medical education curriculum-based students. Identifying different factors affecting students’ academic performance in the local context so as to enrich the empirical evidence and provide new insights into the effect of variables in developing countries is very important. Thus, the main aim of this study was to assess predictors of academic performance for new medical education initiative curriculum-based medical students. Objective. This study designed to assess the predictors of academic performance for new medical education initiative curriculum-based medical students found in Southern Nations and Nationalities Peoples’ Region, Ethiopia. Methods. Institutional-based cross-sectional study design was used on 472 new medical education system students. The study setting includes three medical institutions (Dilla University College of Medicine and Health Science, Wolaita Sodo University College of Medicine and Health Sciences, and Yirgalem Hospital Medical College) within southern region from February to July 2020. The study subjects were those medical students under the NMEI curriculum and had at least one-year cumulative grade point average in the abovementioned institutions. Results. A total of 167 (35.4%) of the students’ academic performance scores were poor. Being agriculture graduate with educational background, mothers with no formal education, being married, first-degree performance score of 2.7–3.2 CGPA, monthly allowance of 10–24.99 USD, nondormitory, student age of 31–35 years old, and being stressed have shown an association with poor academic performance score of the students. Conclusion. First-degree educational background, marital status, maternal educational status, first-degree academic performance, age of the student, monthly allowance, residency during medical school, and history of stress were significant predictors of academic performance for new medical education system students. Thus, it is recommended that special attention should be paid to the admission criteria and financial support of the students

Seroprevalence of hepatitis B virus among pregnant women attending Antenatal care in Dilla University Referral Hospital Gedio Zone, Ethiopia; health facility based cross-sectional study.

IntroductionA pregnancy that has been complicated with Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection results in typical management problems for both the mother and the newborn. One of the universal efforts in tackling the impact of chronic HBV is the prevention of mother-to-child transmission during Antenatal care via prompt screening as the majority of chronic infections globally harbored during this period. Rewarding result have been achieved in reducing this problem at this period of life through maternal screening programs and universal vaccination of infants. This study was aimed at assessing the seroprevalence and associated risk factor of HBV among pregnant women attending Antenatal Care (ANC) in Dilla University Referral Hospital (DURH), Southern Ethiopia.MethodA facility- based cross- sectional study was conducted from December 01 to May 30, 2017 among pregnant women attending ANC. A total of 236 pregnant women were included in this study. All Pregnant women who were attending antenatal clinic and were volunteer during the study period were included, whereas those women who were unable to communicate due to any problem, and not volunteer to give informed consent were excluded. Volunteer participants were asked to complete a questionnaire and had offered to test for HBsAg infection. The data was analyzed using SPSS version 20 software. Logistic regression was used to determine the association between dependent and independent variables.ResultsFrom 215 pregnant women attending ANC, the prevalence of HBsAg by the rapid test was found to be 11 (5.1%). Among the study participants, 91.1% (215) were tested for HIV antibody during the ANC visit, with the positivity rate of 4.5%. The result showed 1.86% of the study participants who were tested for HIV were also positive for HBsAg. Among those factors affecting the transmission of HBV infection, multiple partners and HIV confection have significant association at P-value less than 0.05.ConclusionThe Seropositivity of Hepatitis B Virus among Pregnant Women was found to be significant and hence, routine screening of pregnant mother at Antenatal care for this virus, and subsequent management according to the guideline for both the mother and child is recommended

Pooled prevalence and associated factors of pregnancy termination among youth aged 15-24 year women in East Africa: Multilevel level analysis.

BackgroundMost of unwanted pregnancies among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) in Africa result in pregnancy termination. Despite attempts to enhance maternal health care service utilization, unsafe abortion remains the leading cause of maternal death in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), there is still a study gap, notably in East Africa, where community-level issues are not studied. Therefore, this study aimed to assess pooled prevalence pregnancy termination and associated factors among youth (15-24 year-old) women in the East Africa.MethodsThe study was conducted based on the most recent Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) in the 12 East African countries. A total weighted sample of 44,846 youth (15-24) age group women was included in this study. To detect the existence of a substantial clustering effect, the Intra-class Correlation Coefficient (ICC), Median Odds Ratio (MOR), and Likelihood Ratio (LR)-test were used. Furthermore, because the models were nested, deviance (-2LLR) was used for model comparison. In the multilevel logistic model, significant factors related to pregnancy termination were declared using Adjusted Odds Ratios (AOR) with a 95%Confidence Interval (CI) and p-value of 0.05.ResultThe pooled prevalence of pregnancy termination in East African countries was 7.79% (95% CI: 7.54, 8.04) with the highest prevalence in Uganda 12.51% (95% CI: 11.56, 13.41) and lowest was observed in Zambia 5.64% ((95% CI: 4.86, 6.41). In multilevel multivariable logistic regression result, age 20-24 [AOR = 1.93; 95% CI: 1.71, 2.16], media exposure [AOR = 1.22; 95% CI: 1.12, 1.34], married [AOR = 1.32, 95% CI: 1.21, 1.43], had working [AOR = 1.13; 95% CI: 1.04, 1.23],no education[AOR = 3.98, 95% CI: 2.32, 6.81], primary education [AOR = 4.05, 95% CI: 2.38, 6.88], secondary education [AOR = 2.96, 95% CI: 1.74, 5.03], multiparous [AOR = 0.85; 95%CI: 0.79, 0.93], sexual initiation greater or equal to 15 [AOR = 0.82; 95%CI: 0.74, 0.99] were significantly associated with pregnancy termination.ConclusionThe pooled prevalence of pregnancy termination in East Africa was high in this study. Maternal age, marital status, education status, parity, age at first sex, media exposure, working status and living countries were significantly associated with pregnancy termination. The finding provides critical information for developing health interventions to decrease unplanned pregnancies and illegal pregnancy termination