End-to-end verifiability

This pamphlet describes end-to-end election verifiability (E2E-V) for a nontechnical audience: election officials, public policymakers, and anyone else interested in secure, transparent, evidence-based electronic elections. This work is part of the Overseas Vote Foundation's End-to-End Verifiable Internet Voting: Specification and Feasibility Assessment Study (E2E VIV Project), funded by the Democracy Fund

Americans’ Attitudes toward the Affordable Care Act: What Role Do Beliefs Play?

How do people form their attitudes toward complex policy issues? Although there has long been an assumption that people consider the various components of those issues and come to an overall assessment, a growing body of recent work has instead suggested that people may reach summary judgments as a function of heuristic cues and goal-oriented rationalizations. This study examines how well a component-based model fits Americans’ evaluations of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010, an important and highly contentious piece of legislation that contained several constituent parts. Despite strong partisan disagreement about the law, we find that Democrats and Republicans both appear to evaluate the law as a function of their beliefs and what the law would do as well as their confidence in those beliefs. This finding implies that correcting misperceptions and increasing awareness of the components of legislation have the potential to change attitudes

The Bolocam Galactic Plane Survey: Survey Description and Data Reduction

We present the Bolocam Galactic Plane Survey (BGPS), a 1.1 mm continuum survey at 33" effective resolution of 170 square degrees of the Galactic Plane visible from the northern hemisphere. The survey is contiguous over the range -10.5 < l < 90.5, |b| < 0.5 and encompasses 133 square degrees, including some extended regions |b| < 1.5. In addition to the contiguous region, four targeted regions in the outer Galaxy were observed: IC1396, a region towards the Perseus Arm, W3/4/5, and Gem OB1. The BGPS has detected approximately 8400 clumps over the entire area to a limiting non-uniform 1-sigma noise level in the range 11 to 53 mJy/beam in the inner Galaxy. The BGPS source catalog is presented in a companion paper (Rosolowsky et al. 2010). This paper details the survey observations and data reduction methods for the images. We discuss in detail the determination of astrometric and flux density calibration uncertainties and compare our results to the literature. Data processing algorithms that separate astronomical signals from time-variable atmospheric fluctuations in the data time-stream are presented. These algorithms reproduce the structure of the astronomical sky over a limited range of angular scales and produce artifacts in the vicinity of bright sources. Based on simulations, we find that extended emission on scales larger than about 5.9' is nearly completely attenuated (> 90%) and the linear scale at which the attenuation reaches 50% is 3.8'. Comparison with other millimeter-wave data sets implies a possible systematic offset in flux calibration, for which no cause has been discovered. This presentation serves as a companion and guide to the public data release through NASA's Infrared Processing and Analysis Center (IPAC) Infrared Science Archive (IRSA). New data releases will be provided through IPAC IRSA with any future improvements in the reduction.Comment: Accepted for publication in Astrophysical Journal Supplemen

Combined point of care nucleic acid and antibody testing for SARS-CoV-2 following emergence of D614G Spike Variant

Rapid COVID-19 diagnosis in hospital is essential, though complicated by 30-50% of nose/throat swabs being negative by SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid amplification testing (NAAT). Furthermore, the D614G spike mutant now dominates the pandemic and it is unclear how serological tests designed to detect anti-Spike antibodies perform against this variant. We assess the diagnostic accuracy of combined rapid antibody point of care (POC) and nucleic acid assays for suspected COVID-19 disease due to either wild type or the D614G spike mutant SARS-CoV-2. The overall detection rate for COVID-19 is 79.2% (95CI 57.8-92.9%) by rapid NAAT alone. Combined point of care antibody test and rapid NAAT is not impacted by D614G and results in very high sensitivity for COVID-19 diagnosis with very high specificity

A Roadmap for HEP Software and Computing R&D for the 2020s

Particle physics has an ambitious and broad experimental programme for the coming decades. This programme requires large investments in detector hardware, either to build new facilities and experiments, or to upgrade existing ones. Similarly, it requires commensurate investment in the R&D of software to acquire, manage, process, and analyse the shear amounts of data to be recorded. In planning for the HL-LHC in particular, it is critical that all of the collaborating stakeholders agree on the software goals and priorities, and that the efforts complement each other. In this spirit, this white paper describes the R&D activities required to prepare for this software upgrade.Peer reviewe

Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks

Search for dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks in √s = 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for weakly interacting massive particle dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks is presented. Final states containing third-generation quarks and miss- ing transverse momentum are considered. The analysis uses 36.1 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data recorded by the ATLAS experiment at √s = 13 TeV in 2015 and 2016. No significant excess of events above the estimated backgrounds is observed. The results are in- terpreted in the framework of simplified models of spin-0 dark-matter mediators. For colour- neutral spin-0 mediators produced in association with top quarks and decaying into a pair of dark-matter particles, mediator masses below 50 GeV are excluded assuming a dark-matter candidate mass of 1 GeV and unitary couplings. For scalar and pseudoscalar mediators produced in association with bottom quarks, the search sets limits on the production cross- section of 300 times the predicted rate for mediators with masses between 10 and 50 GeV and assuming a dark-matter mass of 1 GeV and unitary coupling. Constraints on colour- charged scalar simplified models are also presented. Assuming a dark-matter particle mass of 35 GeV, mediator particles with mass below 1.1 TeV are excluded for couplings yielding a dark-matter relic density consistent with measurements

The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset

Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages