Currency regimes and the carry trade

This study exploits a new long-run data set of daily bid and offered exchange rates in spot and forward markets from 1919 to the present to analyze carry returns in fixed and floating currency regimes. We first find that outsized carry returns occur exclusively in the floating regime, being zero in the fixed regime. Second, we show that fixed-to-floating regime shifts are associated with negative returns to a carry strategy implemented only on floating currencies, robust to the inclusion of volatility risks. These shifts are typically characterized by global flight-to-safety events that represent bad times for carry traders.We are indebted to Cambridge University’s Centre for Endowment Asset Management (CEAM), Cambridge Endowment for Research in Finance (CERF), and London School of Economics’ Research Infrastructure and Investment Funds (RIIF) for financial support

Scallop swimming kinematics and muscle performance: modelling the effects of "within-animal" variation in temperature sensitivity

Escape behaviour was investigated in Queen scallops (Aequipecten opercularis) acclimated to 5, 10 or 15 degrees C and tested at their acclimation temperature. Scallops are active molluscs, able to escape from predators by jet-propelled swimming using a striated muscle working in opposition to an elastic hinge ligament. The first cycle of the escape response was recorded using high-speed video ( 250 Hz) and whole-animal velocity and acceleration determined. Muscle shortening velocity, force and power output were calculated using measurements of valve movement and jet area, and a simple biomechanical model. The average shortening speed of the adductor muscle had a Q(10) of 2.04, significantly reducing the duration of the jetting phase of the cycle with increased temperature. Muscle lengthening velocity and the overall duration of the clap cycle were changed little over the range 5 - 15 degrees C, as these parameters were controlled by the relatively temperature-insensitive, hinge ligament. Improvements in the average power output of the adductor muscle over the first clap cycle ( 222 vs. 139 W kg(-1) wet mass at 15 and 5 degrees C respectively) were not translated into proportional increases in overall swimming velocity, which was only 32% higher at 15 degrees C ( 0.37m s(-1)) than 5 degrees C (0.28 m s(-1))

PTEN deficiency: a role in mammary carcinogenesis

The PTEN gene is often mutated in primary human tumors and cell lines, but the low rate of somatic PTEN mutation in human breast cancer has led to debate over the role of this tumor suppressor in this disease. The involvement of PTEN in human mammary oncogenesis has been implicated from studies showing that germline PTEN mutation in Cowden disease predisposes to breast cancer, the frequent loss of heterozygosity at the PTEN locus, and reduced PTEN protein levels in sporadic breast cancers. To assay the potential contribution of PTEN loss in breast tumor promotion, Li et al. [1] crossed Pten heterozygous mice with mouse mammary tumor virus-Wnt-1 transgenic (Wnt-1 TG, Pten+/-) mice. Mammary ductal carcinoma developed earlier in Wnt-1 TG, Pten+/- mice than in mice bearing either genetic change alone, and showed frequent loss of the remaining wild-type PTEN allele. These data indicate a role for PTEN in breast tumorigenesis in an in vivo model

Revisiting the dimensional structure of the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS): empirical evidence for a general factor

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) has been proposed as a one-dimensional instrument and used as a single 10-item scale. This might be considered questionable since repeated psychometric studies have shown multi-dimensionality, which would entail using separate component subscales. This study reappraised the dimensional structure of the EPDS, with a focus on the extent of factor correlations and related factor-based discriminant validity as a foundation for deciding how to effectively scale the component items.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The sample comprised 811 randomly selected mothers of children up to 5 months attending primary health services of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Strict Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) and Exploratory Factor Analysis modeled within a CFA framework (E/CFA) were sequentially used to identify best fitting and parsimonious model(s), including a bifactor analysis to evaluate the existence of a general factor. Properties concerning the related 10-item raw-score scale were also investigated using non-parametric items response theory methods (scalability and monotonicity).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>An initial CFA rejected the one-dimensional structure, while an E/CFA subscribed a three-dimensional solution. Yet, factors were highly correlated (0.66, 0.75 and 0.82). The ensuing CFA showed poor discriminant validity (some square-roots of average variance extracted below the factor correlations). A general bifactor CFA was then fit. Results suggested that, although still weakly encompassing three specific factors, the EPDS might be better described by a model encompassing a general factor (loadings ranging from 0.51 to 0.81). The related 10-item raw score showed adequate scalability (Loevinger's H coefficient = 0.4208), monotonicity e partial double monotonicity (nonintersections of Item Step Response Functions).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Although the EPDS indicated the presence of specific factors, they do not qualify as independent dimensions if used separately and should therefore not be used empirically as sub-scales (raw scores). An all-encompassing scale seems better suited and continuing its use in clinical practice and applied research should be encouraged.</p

The SHiP experiment at the proposed CERN SPS Beam Dump Facility

The Search for Hidden Particles (SHiP) Collaboration has proposed a general-purpose experimental facility operating in beam-dump mode at the CERN SPS accelerator to search for light, feebly interacting particles. In the baseline configuration, the SHiP experiment incorporates two complementary detectors. The upstream detector is designed for recoil signatures of light dark matter (LDM) scattering and for neutrino physics, in particular with tau neutrinos. It consists of a spectrometer magnet housing a layered detector system with high-density LDM/neutrino target plates, emulsion-film technology and electronic high-precision tracking. The total detector target mass amounts to about eight tonnes. The downstream detector system aims at measuring visible decays of feebly interacting particles to both fully reconstructed final states and to partially reconstructed final states with neutrinos, in a nearly background-free environment. The detector consists of a 50 m long decay volume under vacuum followed by a spectrometer and particle identification system with a rectangular acceptance of 5 m in width and 10 m in height. Using the high-intensity beam of 400 GeV protons, the experiment aims at profiting from the 4 x 10(19) protons per year that are currently unexploited at the SPS, over a period of 5-10 years. This allows probing dark photons, dark scalars and pseudo-scalars, and heavy neutral leptons with GeV-scale masses in the direct searches at sensitivities that largely exceed those of existing and projected experiments. The sensitivity to light dark matter through scattering reaches well below the dark matter relic density limits in the range from a few MeV/c(2) up to 100 MeV-scale masses, and it will be possible to study tau neutrino interactions with unprecedented statistics. This paper describes the SHiP experiment baseline setup and the detector systems, together with performance results from prototypes in test beams, as it was prepared for the 2020 Update of the European Strategy for Particle Physics. The expected detector performance from simulation is summarised at the end

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta

Polygenic Risk Scores for Prediction of Breast Cancer and Breast Cancer Subtypes.

Stratification of women according to their risk of breast cancer based on polygenic risk scores (PRSs) could improve screening and prevention strategies. Our aim was to develop PRSs, optimized for prediction of estrogen receptor (ER)-specific disease, from the largest available genome-wide association dataset and to empirically validate the PRSs in prospective studies. The development dataset comprised 94,075 case subjects and 75,017 control subjects of European ancestry from 69 studies, divided into training and validation sets. Samples were genotyped using genome-wide arrays, and single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were selected by stepwise regression or lasso penalized regression. The best performing PRSs were validated in an independent test set comprising 11,428 case subjects and 18,323 control subjects from 10 prospective studies and 190,040 women from UK Biobank (3,215 incident breast cancers). For the best PRSs (313 SNPs), the odds ratio for overall disease per 1 standard deviation in ten prospective studies was 1.61 (95%CI: 1.57-1.65) with area under receiver-operator curve (AUC) = 0.630 (95%CI: 0.628-0.651). The lifetime risk of overall breast cancer in the top centile of the PRSs was 32.6%. Compared with women in the middle quintile, those in the highest 1% of risk had 4.37- and 2.78-fold risks, and those in the lowest 1% of risk had 0.16- and 0.27-fold risks, of developing ER-positive and ER-negative disease, respectively. Goodness-of-fit tests indicated that this PRS was well calibrated and predicts disease risk accurately in the tails of the distribution. This PRS is a powerful and reliable predictor of breast cancer risk that may improve breast cancer prevention programs