Understanding & Modeling State Stability: Exploiting System Dynamics

The potential loss of state stability in various parts of the world is a source of threat to U.S. national security. Every case is unique, but there are common processes. Accordingly, we develop a system dynamics model of state stability by representing the nature and dynamics of ‘loads’ generated by insurgency activities, on the one hand, and by articulating the core features of state resilience and its ‘capacity’ to withstand these ‘loads’, on the other. The problem is to determine and ‘predict’ when threats to stability override the resilience of the state and, more important, to anticipate propensities for ‘tipping points’, namely conditions under which small changes in anti-regime activity can generate major disruptions. On this basis, we then identify appropriate actionable mitigation factors to decrease the likelihood of ‘tipping’ and enhance prospects for stability

Measuring the capability to raise revenue process and output dimensions and their application to the Zambia revenue authority

The worldwide diffusion of the good governance agenda and new public management has triggered a renewed focus on state capability and, more specifically, on the capability to raise revenue in developing countries. However, the analytical tools for a comprehensive understanding of the capability to raise revenue remain underdeveloped. This article aims at filling this gap and presents a model consisting of the three process dimensions ‘information collection and processing’, ‘merit orientation’ and ‘administrative accountability’. ‘Revenue performance’ constitutes the fourth capability dimension which assesses tax administration’s output. This model is applied to the case of the Zambia Revenue Authority. The dimensions prove to be valuable not only for assessing the how much but also the how of collecting taxes. They can be a useful tool for future comparative analyses of tax administrations’ capabilities in developing countries.Die weltweite Verbreitung der Good-Governance- und New-Public-Management-Konzepte hat zu einer zunehmenden Konzentration auf staatliche Leistungsfähigkeit und, im Besonderen, auf die Leistungsfähigkeit der Steuererhebung in Entwicklungsländern geführt. Allerdings bleiben die analytischen Werkzeuge für ein umfassendes Verständnis von Leistungsfähigkeit unterentwickelt. Dieser Artikel stellt hierfür ein Modell vor, das die drei Prozess-Dimensionen „Sammeln und Verarbeiten von Informationen“, „Leistungsorientierung der Mitarbeiter“ und „Verantwortlichkeit der Verwaltung“ beinhaltet. „Einnahmeperformanz“ ist die vierte Dimension und erfasst den Output der Steuerverwaltung. Das mehrdimensionale Modell wird für die Analyse der Leistungsfähigkeit der Steuerbehörde Zambias (Zambia Revenue Authority) genutzt. Es erweist sich nicht nur für die Untersuchung des Wieviel, sondern auch des Wie des Erhebens von Steuern als wertvoll. Die vier Dimensionen können in Zukunft zur umfassenden und vergleichenden Analyse der Leistungsfähigkeit verschiedener Steuerverwaltungen in Entwicklungsländern genutzt werden

Self-love and sociability: the ‘rudiments of commerce’ in the state of nature

Istvan Hont’s classic work on the theoretical links between the seventeenth-century natural jurists Hugo Grotius and Samuel Pufendorf and the eighteenth-century Scottish political economists remains a popular trope among intellectual and economic historians of various stamps. Despite this, a common criticism levelled at Hont remains his relative lack of engagement with the relationship between religion and economics in the early modern period. This paper challenges this aspect of Hont’s narrative by drawing attention to an alternative, albeit complementary, assessment of the natural jurisprudential heritage of eighteenth-century British political economy. Specifically, the article attempts to map on to Hont’s thesis the Christian Stoic interpretation of Grotius and Pufendorf which has gained greater currency in recent years. In doing so, the paper argues that Grotius and Pufendorf’s contributions to the ‘unsocial sociability’ debate do not necessarily lead directly to the Scottish school of political economists, as is commonly assumed. Instead, it contends that a reconsideration of Grotius and Pufendorf as neo-Stoic theorists, particularly via scrutiny of their respective adaptations of the traditional Stoic theory of oikeiosis, steers us towards the heart of the early English ‘clerical’ Enlightenment

Building Information Resilience: How do Resettling Refugees Connect with Health Information in Regional Landscapes - Implications for Health Literacy

The study explores how resettling refugees experience a new health environment and develop health literacy practice. The concept of information resilience, which emerges from the grounded experiences of learning to live well is introduced. The study also explores how health narratives are constructed, disseminated and circulated by this particular cohort

Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: A pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

© The Author(s) 2018. Background: Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure. Methods: We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probittransformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure. Results: In 2005-16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the highincome Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association. Conclusions: Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups

The Use of Functional Data Analysis to Evaluate Activity in a Spontaneous Model of Degenerative Joint Disease Associated Pain in Cats

Introduction and objectives: accelerometry is used as an objective measure of physical activity in humans and veterinary species. In cats, one important use of accelerometry is in the study of therapeutics designed to treat degenerative joint disease (DJD) associated pain, where it serves as the most widely applied objective outcome measure. These analyses have commonly used summary measures, calculating the mean activity per-minute over days and comparing between treatment periods. While this technique has been effective, information about the pattern of activity in cats is lost. In this study, functional data analysis was applied to activity data from client-owned cats with (n = 83) and without (n = 15) DJD. Functional data analysis retains information about the pattern of activity over the 24-hour day, providing insight into activity over time. We hypothesized that 1) cats without DJD would have higher activity counts and intensity of activity than cats with DJD; 2) that activity counts and intensity of activity in cats with DJD would be inversely correlated with total radiographic DJD burden and total orthopedic pain score; and 3) that activity counts and intensity would have a different pattern on weekends versus weekdays. Results and conclusions: results showed marked inter-cat variability in activity. Cats exhibited a bimodal pattern of activity with a sharp peak in the morning and broader peak in the evening. Results further showed that this pattern was different on weekends than weekdays, with the morning peak being shifted to the right (later). Cats with DJD showed different patterns of activity from cats without DJD, though activity and intensity were not always lower; instead both the peaks and troughs of activity were less extreme than those of the cats without DJD. Functional data analysis provides insight into the pattern of activity in cats, and an alternative method for analyzing accelerometry data that incorporates fluctuations in activity across the day.UCR::Vicerrectoría de Docencia::Ciencias Sociales::Facultad de Ciencias Económicas::Escuela de Estadístic

Clinical Models to Compare the Safety and Efficacy of Inhaled Corticosteroids in Patients with Asthma

There is no consensus on the methods to compare the clinical efficacy of different inhaled corticosteroids. A comparison needs to be made in terms of relative potency, and studies should include two-, or preferably, three-dose comparisons. A number of clinical models and outcomes are available; they have their relative advantages and disadvantages. While measurements of symptoms and spirometry are easy and readily available, they show a flat dose-response relationship. Measurements of bronchial hyper-responsiveness to exercise and adenosine monophosphate, allergen-induced airway responses, and measurements of inflammation in sputum and exhaled air show steep dose-response relationships, particularly to low doses of inhaled steroids. An uncontrolled asthma model followed by stabilization with a short course of additional steroid, with measurements of airway responsiveness and airway inflammation, in a crossover study seems more promising than the other models. Drug deposition studies and mathematical modelling of drug pharmacokinetics in the airway may provide complementary information to clinical drug relative potency studies. Fine particle dose and emitted doses, rather than the nominal dose, should be considered in the estimation of clinical and systemic effects, respectively. When a second entry (generic) drug is being evaluated in comparison with the innovator drug (same compound and same device), it may be appropriate to consider accepting a generic as bioequivalent if it satisfies pharmaceutical equivalence