Performance evaluation of bias correction methods for climate change monthly precipitation projections over Costa Rica

This is the final version. Available from MDPI via the DOI in this record. The following are available online at http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/12/2/482/s1, uncorrected GCM-RCM, observed precipitation and GPCC data for the period 1951–1995, the complete R computational code, the ggplot2-graphical code and all GeoTIFF generated maps can be access at the following Github repository: https://github.com/maikelonu/Research_Future_Precipitation_Ensemble_GCM_RCM_RCP. All R scripts have been clearly commented so any one can reproduce the Results presented in this manuscript.Six bias correction (BC) methods; delta-method (DT), linear scaling (LS), power transformation of precipitation (PTR), empirical quantile mapping (EQM), gamma quantile mapping (GQM) and gamma-pareto quantile mapping (GPQM) were applied to adjust the biases of historical monthly precipitation outputs from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) dynamically downscaled by two Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for a total of seven different GCM-RCM pairs over Costa Rica. High-resolution gridded precipitation observations were used for the control period 1951-1980 and validated over the period 1981-1995. Results show that considerable biases exist between uncorrected GCM-RCM outputs and observations, which largely depend on GCM-RCM pair, seasonality, climatic region and spatial resolution. After the application of bias correction, substantial biases reductions and comparable performances among most BC methods were observed for most GCM-RCM pairs; withEQMand DT marginally outperforming the remaining methods. Consequently, EQM and DT were selectively applied to correct the biases of precipitation projections from each individual GCM-RCM pair for a near-future (2011-2040), mid-future (2041-2070) and far-future (2071-2100) period under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 using the control period 1961-1990. Results from the bias-corrected future ensemble-mean anticipate a marked decreasing trend in precipitation from near to far-future periods during the dry season (December, January, February (DJF) and March, April, May (MAM) for RCP4.5 and 8.5; with pronounced drier conditions for those climatic regions draining towards the Pacific Ocean. In contrast, mostly wetter conditions are expected during the dry season under RCP2.6, particularly for the Caribbean region. In most of the country, the greatest decrease in precipitation is projected at the beginning of the rainy season (June, July, August (JJA) for the far-future period under RCP8.5, except for the Caribbean region where mostly wetter conditions are anticipated. Regardless of future period, slight increases in precipitation with higher radiative forcing are expected for SON excluding the Caribbean region, where precipitation is likely to increase with increasing radiative forcing and future period. This study demonstrates that bias correction should be considered before direct application of GCM-RCM precipitation projections over complex territories such as Costa Rica.Vicerrectoría de Investigación & Extensión, Instituto Tecnológico de Costa Rica (TEC

CariesCare International adapted for the pandemic in children: Caries OUT multicentre single-group interventional study protocol

Background Comprehensive caries care has shown effectiveness in controlling caries progression and improving health outcomes by controlling caries risk, preventing initial-caries lesions progression, and patient satisfaction. To date, the caries-progression control effectiveness of the patient-centred risk-based CariesCare International (CCI) system, derived from ICCMS™ for the practice (2019), remains unproven. With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic a previously planned multi-centre RCT shifted to this “Caries OUT” study, aiming to assess in a single-intervention group in children, the caries-control effectiveness of CCI adapted for the pandemic with non-aerosols generating procedures (non-AGP) and reducing in-office time. Methods In this 1-year multi-centre single-group interventional trial the adapted-CCI effectiveness will be assessed in one single group in terms of tooth-surface level caries progression control, and secondarily, individual-level caries progression control, children’s oral-health behaviour change, parents’ and dentists’ process acceptability, and costs exploration. A sample size of 258 3–5 and 6–8 years old patients was calculated after removing half from the previous RCT, allowing for a 25% dropout, including generally health children (27 per centre). The single-group intervention will be the adapted-CCI 4D-cycle caries care, with non-AGP and reduced in-office appointments’ time. A trained examiner per centre will conduct examinations at baseline, at 5–5.5 months (3 months after basic management), 8.5 and 12 months, assessing the child’s CCI caries risk and oral-health behaviour, visually staging and assessing caries-lesions severity and activity without air-drying (ICDAS-merged Epi); fillings/sealants; missing/dental-sepsis teeth, and tooth symptoms, synthetizing together with parent and external-trained dental practitioner (DP) the patient- and tooth-surface level diagnoses and personalised care plan. DP will deliver the adapted-CCI caries care. Parents’ and dentists’ process acceptability will be assessed via Treatment-Evaluation-Inventory questionnaires, and costs in terms of number of appointments and activities. Twenty-one centres in 13 countries will participate. Discussion The results of Caries OUT adapted for the pandemic will provide clinical data that could help support shifting the caries care in children towards individualised oral-health behaviour improvement and tooth-preserving care, improving health outcomes, and explore if the caries progression can be controlled during the pandemic by conducting non-AGP and reducing in-office time. Trial registration: Retrospectively-registered-ClinicalTrials.gov-NCT04666597-07/12/2020: https://register.clinicaltrials.gov/prs/app/action/SelectProtocol?sid=S000AGM4&selectaction=Edit&uid=U00019IE&ts=2&cx=uwje3h. Protocol-version 2: 27/01/2021

Combined measurement of differential and total cross sections in the H → γγ and the H → ZZ* → 4ℓ decay channels at s=13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A combined measurement of differential and inclusive total cross sections of Higgs boson production is performed using 36.1 fb−1 of 13 TeV proton–proton collision data produced by the LHC and recorded by the ATLAS detector in 2015 and 2016. Cross sections are obtained from measured H→γγ and H→ZZ*(→4ℓ event yields, which are combined taking into account detector efficiencies, resolution, acceptances and branching fractions. The total Higgs boson production cross section is measured to be 57.0−5.9 +6.0 (stat.) −3.3 +4.0 (syst.) pb, in agreement with the Standard Model prediction. Differential cross-section measurements are presented for the Higgs boson transverse momentum distribution, Higgs boson rapidity, number of jets produced together with the Higgs boson, and the transverse momentum of the leading jet. The results from the two decay channels are found to be compatible, and their combination agrees with the Standard Model predictions

Search for High-Mass Resonances Decaying to τν in pp Collisions at √s=13 TeV with the ATLAS Detector

A search for high-mass resonances decaying to τν using proton-proton collisions at √s=13 TeV produced by the Large Hadron Collider is presented. Only τ-lepton decays with hadrons in the final state are considered. The data were recorded with the ATLAS detector and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 36.1 fb−1. No statistically significant excess above the standard model expectation is observed; model-independent upper limits are set on the visible τν production cross section. Heavy W′ bosons with masses less than 3.7 TeV in the sequential standard model and masses less than 2.2–3.8 TeV depending on the coupling in the nonuniversal G(221) model are excluded at the 95% credibility level

Operation and performance of the ATLAS Tile Calorimeter in Run 1

The Tile Calorimeter is the hadron calorimeter covering the central region of the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider. Approximately 10,000 photomultipliers collect light from scintillating tiles acting as the active material sandwiched between slabs of steel absorber. This paper gives an overview of the calorimeter’s performance during the years 2008–2012 using cosmic-ray muon events and proton–proton collision data at centre-of-mass energies of 7 and 8TeV with a total integrated luminosity of nearly 30 fb−1. The signal reconstruction methods, calibration systems as well as the detector operation status are presented. The energy and time calibration methods performed excellently, resulting in good stability of the calorimeter response under varying conditions during the LHC Run 1. Finally, the Tile Calorimeter response to isolated muons and hadrons as well as to jets from proton–proton collisions is presented. The results demonstrate excellent performance in accord with specifications mentioned in the Technical Design Report

Performance of missing transverse momentum reconstruction with the ATLAS detector using proton–proton collisions at √s = 13 TeV

The performance of the missing transverse momentum (EmissT) reconstruction with the ATLAS detector is evaluated using data collected in proton–proton collisions at the LHC at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV in 2015. To reconstruct EmissT, fully calibrated electrons, muons, photons, hadronically decaying τ -leptons, and jets reconstructed from calorimeter energy deposits and charged-particle tracks are used. These are combined with the soft hadronic activity measured by reconstructed charged-particle tracks not associated with the hard objects. Possible double counting of contributions from reconstructed charged-particle tracks from the inner detector, energy deposits in the calorimeter, and reconstructed muons from the muon spectrometer is avoided by applying a signal ambiguity resolution procedure which rejects already used signals when combining the various EmissT contributions. The individual terms as well as the overall reconstructed EmissT are evaluated with various performance metrics for scale (linearity), resolution, and sensitivity to the data-taking conditions. The method developed to determine the systematic uncertainties of the EmissT scale and resolution is discussed. Results are shown based on the full 2015 data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3.2 fb−1

Measurement of the t¯tZ and t¯tW cross sections in proton-proton collisions at √s=13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A measurement of the associated production of a top-quark pair (t¯t) with a vector boson (W, Z) in proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV is presented, using 36.1  fb−1 of integrated luminosity collected by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. Events are selected in channels with two same- or opposite-sign leptons (electrons or muons), three leptons or four leptons, and each channel is further divided into multiple regions to maximize the sensitivity of the measurement. The t¯tZ and t¯tW production cross sections are simultaneously measured using a combined fit to all regions. The best-fit values of the production cross sections are σt¯tZ=0.95±0.08stat±0.10syst pb and σt¯tW=0.87±0.13stat±0.14syst pb in agreement with the Standard Model predictions. The measurement of the t¯tZ cross section is used to set constraints on effective field theory operators which modify the t¯tZ vertex

Search for pairs of highly collimated photon-jets in pp collisions at √s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Results of a search for the pair production of photon-jets—collimated groupings of photons—in the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider are reported. Highly collimated photon-jets can arise from the decay of new, highly boosted particles that can decay to multiple photons collimated enough to be identified in the electromagnetic calorimeter as a single, photonlike energy cluster. Data from proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 36.7  fb−1, were collected in 2015 and 2016. Candidate photon-jet pair production events are selected from those containing two reconstructed photons using a set of identification criteria much less stringent than that typically used for the selection of photons, with additional criteria applied to provide improved sensitivity to photon-jets. Narrow excesses in the reconstructed diphoton mass spectra are searched for. The observed mass spectra are consistent with the Standard Model background expectation. The results are interpreted in the context of a model containing a new, high-mass scalar particle with narrow width, X, that decays into pairs of photon-jets via new, light particles, a. Upper limits are placed on the cross section times the product of branching ratios σ×B(X→aa)×B(a→γγ)2 for 200  GeV<mX<2  TeV and for ranges of ma from a lower mass of 100 MeV up to between 2 and 10 GeV, depending upon mX. Upper limits are also placed on σ×B(X→aa)×B(a→3π0)2 for the same range of mX and for ranges of ma from a lower mass of 500 MeV up to between 2 and 10 GeV