Rule-Based Forecasting: Using Judgment in Time-Series Extrapolation

Rule-Based Forecasting (RBF) is an expert system that uses judgment to develop and apply rules for combining extrapolations. The judgment comes from two sources, forecasting expertise and domain knowledge. Forecasting expertise is based on more than a half century of research. Domain knowledge is obtained in a structured way; one example of domain knowledge is managers= expectations about trends, which we call “causal forces.” Time series are described in terms of 28 conditions, which are used to assign weights to extrapolations. Empirical results on multiple sets of time series show that RBF produces more accurate forecasts than those from traditional extrapolation methods or equal-weights combined extrapolations. RBF is most useful when it is based on good domain knowledge, the domain knowledge is important, the series is well behaved (such that patterns can be identified), there is a strong trend in the data, and the forecast horizon is long. Under ideal conditions, the error for RBF’s forecasts were one-third less than those for equal-weights combining. When these conditions are absent, RBF neither improves nor harms forecast accuracy. Some of RBF’s rules can be used with traditional extrapolation procedures. In a series of studies, rules based on causal forces improved the selection of forecasting methods, the structuring of time series, and the assessment of prediction intervals

Using dissolved H₂O in rhyolitic glasses to estimate palaeo-ice thickness during a subglacial eruption at Bláhnúkur(Torfajökull, Iceland)

The last decade has seen the refinement of a technique for reconstructing palaeo-ice thicknesses based on using the retained H2O and CO2 content in glassy eruptive deposits to infer quenching pressures and therefore ice thicknesses. The method is here applied to Bláhnúkur, a subglacially erupted rhyolitic edifice in Iceland. A decrease in water content from ~0.7 wt.% at the base to ~0.3 wt.% at the top of the edifice suggests that the ice was 400 m thick at the time of the eruption. As Bláhnúkur rises 350 m above the surrounding terrain, this implies that the eruption occurred entirely within ice, which corroborates evidence obtained from earlier lithofacies studies. This paper presents the largest data set (40 samples) so far obtained for the retained volatile contents of deposits from a subglacial eruption. An important consequence is that it enables subtle but significant variations in water content to become evident. In particular, there are anomalous samples which are either water-rich (up to 1 wt.%) or water-poor (~0.2 wt.%), with the former being interpreted as forming intrusively within hyaloclastite and the latter representing batches of magma that were volatile-poor prior to eruption. The large data set also provides further insights into the strengths and weaknesses of using volatiles to infer palaeo-ice thicknesses and highlights many of the uncertainties involved. By using examples from Bláhnúkur, the quantitative use of this technique is evaluated. However, the relative pressure conditions which have shed light on Bláhnúkur’s eruption mechanisms and syn-eruptive glacier response show that, despite uncertainties in absolute values, the volatile approach can provide useful insight into the mechanisms of subglacial rhyolitic eruptions, which have never been observed

Characterization of the macrophage transcriptome in glomerulonephritis-susceptible and -resistant rat strains

Crescentic glomerulonephritis (CRGN) is a major cause of rapidly progressive renal failure for which the underlying genetic basis is unknown. WKY rats show marked susceptibility to CRGN, while Lewis rats are resistant. Glomerular injury and crescent formation are macrophage-dependent and mainly explained by seven quantitative trait loci (Crgn1-7). Here, we used microarray analysis in basal and lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-stimulated macrophages to identify genes that reside on pathways predisposing WKY rats to CRGN. We detected 97 novel positional candidates for the uncharacterised Crgn3-7. We identified 10 additional secondary effector genes with profound differences in expression between the two strains (>5-fold change, <1% False Discovery Rate) for basal and LPS-stimulated macrophages. Moreover, we identified 8 genes with differentially expressed alternatively spliced isoforms, by using an in depth analysis at probe-level that allowed us to discard false positives due to polymorphisms between the two rat strains. Pathway analysis identified several common linked pathways, enriched for differentially expressed genes, which affect macrophage activation. In summary, our results identify distinct macrophage transcriptome profiles between two rat strains that differ in susceptibility to glomerulonephritis, provide novel positional candidates for Crgn3-7, and define groups of genes that play a significant role in differential regulation of macrophage activity

Recent Advances in Our Understanding of the Role of Meltwater in the Greenland Ice Sheet System

Nienow, Sole and Cowton’s Greenland research has been supported by a number of UK NERC research grants (NER/O/S/2003/00620; NE/F021399/1; NE/H024964/1; NE/K015249/1; NE/K014609/1) and Slater has been supported by a NERC PhD studentshipPurpose of the review:  This review discusses the role that meltwater plays within the Greenland ice sheet system. The ice sheet’s hydrology is important because it affects mass balance through its impact on meltwater runoff processes and ice dynamics. The review considers recent advances in our understanding of the storage and routing of water through the supraglacial, englacial, and subglacial components of the system and their implications for the ice sheet Recent findings:   There have been dramatic increases in surface meltwater generation and runoff since the early 1990s, both due to increased air temperatures and decreasing surface albedo. Processes in the subglacial drainage system have similarities to valley glaciers and in a warming climate, the efficiency of meltwater routing to the ice sheet margin is likely to increase. The behaviour of the subglacial drainage system appears to limit the impact of increased surface melt on annual rates of ice motion, in sections of the ice sheet that terminate on land, while the large volumes of meltwater routed subglacially deliver significant volumes of sediment and nutrients to downstream ecosystems. Summary:  Considerable advances have been made recently in our understanding of Greenland ice sheet hydrology and its wider influences. Nevertheless, critical gaps persist both in our understanding of hydrology-dynamics coupling, notably at tidewater glaciers, and in runoff processes which ensure that projecting Greenland’s future mass balance remains challenging.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Photonic hydrogel sensors

Analyte-sensitive hydrogels that incorporate optical structures have emerged as sensing platforms for point-of-care diagnostics. The optical properties of the hydrogel sensors can be rationally designed and fabricated through self-assembly, microfabrication or laser writing. The advantages of photonic hydrogel sensors over conventional assay formats include label-free, quantitative, reusable, and continuous measurement capability that can be integrated with equipment-free text or image display. This Review explains the operation principles of photonic hydrogel sensors, presents syntheses of stimuli-responsive polymers, and provides an overview of qualitative and quantitative readout technologies. Applications in clinical samples are discussed, and potential future directions are identified

Integrated Genomic Analysis of the Ubiquitin Pathway across Cancer Types

Protein ubiquitination is a dynamic and reversibleprocess of adding single ubiquitin molecules orvarious ubiquitin chains to target proteins. Here,using multidimensional omic data of 9,125 tumorsamples across 33 cancer types from The CancerGenome Atlas, we perform comprehensive molecu-lar characterization of 929 ubiquitin-related genesand 95 deubiquitinase genes. Among them, we sys-tematically identify top somatic driver candidates,including mutatedFBXW7with cancer-type-specificpatterns and amplifiedMDM2showing a mutuallyexclusive pattern withBRAFmutations. Ubiquitinpathway genes tend to be upregulated in cancermediated by diverse mechanisms. By integratingpan-cancer multiomic data, we identify a group oftumor samples that exhibit worse prognosis. Thesesamples are consistently associated with the upre-gulation of cell-cycle and DNA repair pathways, char-acterized by mutatedTP53,MYC/TERTamplifica-tion, andAPC/PTENdeletion. Our analysishighlights the importance of the ubiquitin pathwayin cancer development and lays a foundation fordeveloping relevant therapeutic strategies

Comprehensive molecular characterization of the hippo signaling pathway in cancer

Hippo signaling has been recognized as a key tumor suppressor pathway. Here, we perform a comprehensive molecular characterization of 19 Hippo core genes in 9,125 tumor samples across 33 cancer types using multidimensional “omic” data from The Cancer Genome Atlas. We identify somatic drivers among Hippo genes and the related microRNA (miRNA) regulators, and using functional genomic approaches, we experimentally characterize YAP and TAZ mutation effects and miR-590 and miR-200a regulation for TAZ. Hippo pathway activity is best characterized by a YAP/TAZ transcriptional target signature of 22 genes, which shows robust prognostic power across cancer types. Our elastic-net integrated modeling further reveals cancer-type-specific pathway regulators and associated cancer drivers. Our results highlight the importance of Hippo signaling in squamous cell cancers, characterized by frequent amplification of YAP/TAZ, high expression heterogeneity, and significant prognostic patterns. This study represents a systems-biology approach to characterizing key cancer signaling pathways in the post-genomic era

Molecular characterization and clinical relevance of metabolic expression subtypes in human cancers.

Metabolic reprogramming provides critical information for clinical oncology. Using molecular data of 9,125 patient samples from The Cancer Genome Atlas, we identified tumor subtypes in 33 cancer types based on mRNA expression patterns of seven major metabolic processes and assessed their clinical relevance. Our metabolic expression subtypes correlated extensively with clinical outcome: subtypes with upregulated carbohydrate, nucleotide, and vitamin/cofactor metabolism most consistently correlated with worse prognosis, whereas subtypes with upregulated lipid metabolism showed the opposite. Metabolic subtypes correlated with diverse somatic drivers but exhibited effects convergent on cancer hallmark pathways and were modulated by highly recurrent master regulators across cancer types. As a proof-of-concept example, we demonstrated that knockdown of SNAI1 or RUNX1—master regulators of carbohydrate metabolic subtypes-modulates metabolic activity and drug sensitivity. Our study provides a system-level view of metabolic heterogeneity within and across cancer types and identifies pathway cross-talk, suggesting related prognostic, therapeutic, and predictive utility