Estimating the Undercoverage of a Sampling Frame due to Reporting Delays

One of the imperfections of a sampling frame is miscoverage caused by delays in recording real- life events that change the eligibility of population units. For example, new units generally appear on the frame some time after they came into existence and units that have ceased to exist are not removed from the frame immediately. We provide methodology for predicting the undercoverage due to delays in reporting new units. The approach presented here is novel in a business survey context, and is equally applicable to overcoverage due to delays in reporting the closure of units. As a special case, we also predict the number of new-born units per month. The methodology is applied to the principal business register in the UK, maintained by the Office for National Statistics. <br/

The development of susceptibility to geometric visual illusions in children – A systematic review

Investigating children’s susceptibility to visual illusions (VIs) offers a unique window into the development of human perception. Although research in this field dates back to the seminal work of Binet in 1895, developmental trajectories for many VIs remain unclear. Here, for the very first time, we provide a comprehensive systematic review of research investigating children’s susceptibility to five of the most famous VIs: the Ebbinghaus, Ponzo, Müller-Lyer, Poggendorff, and Vertical-Horizontal illusions. Following PRISMA best-practice guidelines, 70 articles were identified across four databases (Scopus, PsycInfo, PsycArticles, and Web of Science). Our findings reveal opposing developmental trends across illusions; the magnitude of the Müller-Lyer, Poggendorff, and Vertical-Horizontal illusions tends to decrease with age, while the magnitude of the Ebbinghaus and Ponzo illusions typically increases with age. However, developmental trajectories identified by studies investigating the same illusion can vary dramatically due to substantial variability in methods and stimuli. Researchers are more likely to find decreasing VI magnitude with increasing age when employing the method of adjustment response paradigm, whereas the two-way alternative forced-choice paradigm typically reveals greater VI magnitude with increasing age. These findings suggest that conclusions regarding the development of VI susceptibility may be influenced by how they are studied and implicate the involvement of different cognitive abilities across response methods. These findings will benefit future research in dissociating the role of perceptual (e.g. the maturation of the brain's visual areas) and cognitive factors (e.g., attention span) in pinpointing the development trajectories for VI susceptibility

Steric Determinants of Pt/DNA Interactions and Anticancer Activity

Studies directed at establishing the structural features that control Pt/DNA interactions and the anticancer activity of Pt drugs are described. [1H, 15N]-HSQC 2D NMR spectroscopic studies of the reactions of cisplatin with oligonucleotides containing ApG and GpA binding sites reveal dramatic differences in the rates of formation of monofunctional adducts at the two sites. When the reactant is cis-[Pt(NH3)2(OH2)2]2+ no such differences are observed suggesting that outer-sphere interactions between the reactant and the oligonucleotide may play a substantial role in determining the rates. Rates of closure to the bifunctional adducts are similar to those observed for cisplatin. Studies of the adduct profiles formed by sterically bulky and/or optically active complexes reveal that steric interactions play a major role in mediating the binding of Pt(ll) to DNA but that hydrogen bonds play less of a role. In vitro cytotoxic activities for these complexes do not always follow the trends that would be expected on the basis of the adduct profiles

Providing oxygen to children in hospitals: a realist review

OBJECTIVE: To identify and describe interventions to improve oxygen therapy in hospitals in low-resource settings, and to determine the factors that contribute to success and failure in different contexts. METHODS: Using realist review methods, we scanned the literature and contacted experts in the field to identify possible mechanistic theories of how interventions to improve oxygen therapy systems might work. Then we systematically searched online databases for evaluations of improved oxygen systems in hospitals in low- or middle-income countries. We extracted data on the effectiveness, processes and underlying theory of selected projects, and used these data to test the candidate theories and identify the features of successful projects. FINDINGS: We included 20 improved oxygen therapy projects (45 papers) from 15 countries. These used various approaches to improving oxygen therapy, and reported clinical, quality of care and technical outcomes. Four effectiveness studies demonstrated positive clinical outcomes for childhood pneumonia, with large variation between programmes and hospitals. We identified factors that help or hinder success, and proposed a practical framework depicting the key requirements for hospitals to effectively provide oxygen therapy to children. To improve clinical outcomes, oxygen improvement programmes must achieve good access to oxygen and good use of oxygen, which should be facilitated by a broad quality improvement capacity, by a strong managerial and policy support and multidisciplinary teamwork. CONCLUSION: Our findings can inform practitioners and policy-makers about how to improve oxygen therapy in low-resource settings, and may be relevant for other interventions involving the introduction of health technologies

Search for dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks in √s = 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for weakly interacting massive particle dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks is presented. Final states containing third-generation quarks and miss- ing transverse momentum are considered. The analysis uses 36.1 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data recorded by the ATLAS experiment at √s = 13 TeV in 2015 and 2016. No significant excess of events above the estimated backgrounds is observed. The results are in- terpreted in the framework of simplified models of spin-0 dark-matter mediators. For colour- neutral spin-0 mediators produced in association with top quarks and decaying into a pair of dark-matter particles, mediator masses below 50 GeV are excluded assuming a dark-matter candidate mass of 1 GeV and unitary couplings. For scalar and pseudoscalar mediators produced in association with bottom quarks, the search sets limits on the production cross- section of 300 times the predicted rate for mediators with masses between 10 and 50 GeV and assuming a dark-matter mass of 1 GeV and unitary coupling. Constraints on colour- charged scalar simplified models are also presented. Assuming a dark-matter particle mass of 35 GeV, mediator particles with mass below 1.1 TeV are excluded for couplings yielding a dark-matter relic density consistent with measurements

Hospital admission and emergency care attendance risk for SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) compared with alpha (B.1.1.7) variants of concern: a cohort study

Background: The SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) variant was first detected in England in March, 2021. It has since rapidly become the predominant lineage, owing to high transmissibility. It is suspected that the delta variant is associated with more severe disease than the previously dominant alpha (B.1.1.7) variant. We aimed to characterise the severity of the delta variant compared with the alpha variant by determining the relative risk of hospital attendance outcomes. Methods: This cohort study was done among all patients with COVID-19 in England between March 29 and May 23, 2021, who were identified as being infected with either the alpha or delta SARS-CoV-2 variant through whole-genome sequencing. Individual-level data on these patients were linked to routine health-care datasets on vaccination, emergency care attendance, hospital admission, and mortality (data from Public Health England's Second Generation Surveillance System and COVID-19-associated deaths dataset; the National Immunisation Management System; and NHS Digital Secondary Uses Services and Emergency Care Data Set). The risk for hospital admission and emergency care attendance were compared between patients with sequencing-confirmed delta and alpha variants for the whole cohort and by vaccination status subgroups. Stratified Cox regression was used to adjust for age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, recent international travel, area of residence, calendar week, and vaccination status. Findings: Individual-level data on 43 338 COVID-19-positive patients (8682 with the delta variant, 34 656 with the alpha variant; median age 31 years [IQR 17–43]) were included in our analysis. 196 (2·3%) patients with the delta variant versus 764 (2·2%) patients with the alpha variant were admitted to hospital within 14 days after the specimen was taken (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 2·26 [95% CI 1·32–3·89]). 498 (5·7%) patients with the delta variant versus 1448 (4·2%) patients with the alpha variant were admitted to hospital or attended emergency care within 14 days (adjusted HR 1·45 [1·08–1·95]). Most patients were unvaccinated (32 078 [74·0%] across both groups). The HRs for vaccinated patients with the delta variant versus the alpha variant (adjusted HR for hospital admission 1·94 [95% CI 0·47–8·05] and for hospital admission or emergency care attendance 1·58 [0·69–3·61]) were similar to the HRs for unvaccinated patients (2·32 [1·29–4·16] and 1·43 [1·04–1·97]; p=0·82 for both) but the precision for the vaccinated subgroup was low. Interpretation: This large national study found a higher hospital admission or emergency care attendance risk for patients with COVID-19 infected with the delta variant compared with the alpha variant. Results suggest that outbreaks of the delta variant in unvaccinated populations might lead to a greater burden on health-care services than the alpha variant. Funding: Medical Research Council; UK Research and Innovation; Department of Health and Social Care; and National Institute for Health Research

Changes in symptomatology, reinfection, and transmissibility associated with the SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7: an ecological study

Background The SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 was first identified in December, 2020, in England. We aimed to investigate whether increases in the proportion of infections with this variant are associated with differences in symptoms or disease course, reinfection rates, or transmissibility. Methods We did an ecological study to examine the association between the regional proportion of infections with the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant and reported symptoms, disease course, rates of reinfection, and transmissibility. Data on types and duration of symptoms were obtained from longitudinal reports from users of the COVID Symptom Study app who reported a positive test for COVID-19 between Sept 28 and Dec 27, 2020 (during which the prevalence of B.1.1.7 increased most notably in parts of the UK). From this dataset, we also estimated the frequency of possible reinfection, defined as the presence of two reported positive tests separated by more than 90 days with a period of reporting no symptoms for more than 7 days before the second positive test. The proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections with the B.1.1.7 variant across the UK was estimated with use of genomic data from the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium and data from Public Health England on spike-gene target failure (a non-specific indicator of the B.1.1.7 variant) in community cases in England. We used linear regression to examine the association between reported symptoms and proportion of B.1.1.7. We assessed the Spearman correlation between the proportion of B.1.1.7 cases and number of reinfections over time, and between the number of positive tests and reinfections. We estimated incidence for B.1.1.7 and previous variants, and compared the effective reproduction number, Rt, for the two incidence estimates. Findings From Sept 28 to Dec 27, 2020, positive COVID-19 tests were reported by 36 920 COVID Symptom Study app users whose region was known and who reported as healthy on app sign-up. We found no changes in reported symptoms or disease duration associated with B.1.1.7. For the same period, possible reinfections were identified in 249 (0·7% [95% CI 0·6–0·8]) of 36 509 app users who reported a positive swab test before Oct 1, 2020, but there was no evidence that the frequency of reinfections was higher for the B.1.1.7 variant than for pre-existing variants. Reinfection occurrences were more positively correlated with the overall regional rise in cases (Spearman correlation 0·56–0·69 for South East, London, and East of England) than with the regional increase in the proportion of infections with the B.1.1.7 variant (Spearman correlation 0·38–0·56 in the same regions), suggesting B.1.1.7 does not substantially alter the risk of reinfection. We found a multiplicative increase in the Rt of B.1.1.7 by a factor of 1·35 (95% CI 1·02–1·69) relative to pre-existing variants. However, Rt fell below 1 during regional and national lockdowns, even in regions with high proportions of infections with the B.1.1.7 variant. Interpretation The lack of change in symptoms identified in this study indicates that existing testing and surveillance infrastructure do not need to change specifically for the B.1.1.7 variant. In addition, given that there was no apparent increase in the reinfection rate, vaccines are likely to remain effective against the B.1.1.7 variant. Funding Zoe Global, Department of Health (UK), Wellcome Trust, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (UK), National Institute for Health Research (UK), Medical Research Council (UK), Alzheimer's Society

Genomic assessment of quarantine measures to prevent SARS-CoV-2 importation and transmission

Mitigation of SARS-CoV-2 transmission from international travel is a priority. We evaluated the effectiveness of travellers being required to quarantine for 14-days on return to England in Summer 2020. We identified 4,207 travel-related SARS-CoV-2 cases and their contacts, and identified 827 associated SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Overall, quarantine was associated with a lower rate of contacts, and the impact of quarantine was greatest in the 16–20 age-group. 186 SARS-CoV-2 genomes were sufficiently unique to identify travel-related clusters. Fewer genomically-linked cases were observed for index cases who returned from countries with quarantine requirement compared to countries with no quarantine requirement. This difference was explained by fewer importation events per identified genome for these cases, as opposed to fewer onward contacts per case. Overall, our study demonstrates that a 14-day quarantine period reduces, but does not completely eliminate, the onward transmission of imported cases, mainly by dissuading travel to countries with a quarantine requirement

Genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in a UK university identifies dynamics of transmission

AbstractUnderstanding SARS-CoV-2 transmission in higher education settings is important to limit spread between students, and into at-risk populations. In this study, we sequenced 482 SARS-CoV-2 isolates from the University of Cambridge from 5 October to 6 December 2020. We perform a detailed phylogenetic comparison with 972 isolates from the surrounding community, complemented with epidemiological and contact tracing data, to determine transmission dynamics. We observe limited viral introductions into the university; the majority of student cases were linked to a single genetic cluster, likely following social gatherings at a venue outside the university. We identify considerable onward transmission associated with student accommodation and courses; this was effectively contained using local infection control measures and following a national lockdown. Transmission clusters were largely segregated within the university or the community. Our study highlights key determinants of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and effective interventions in a higher education setting that will inform public health policy during pandemics.</jats:p