Der Arbeitsmarkt in den Jahren 2001 und 2002 mit Ausblick auf 2003 (The labour market in the Federal Republic of Germany in 2001 and 2002, with the prospects for 2003)

The economic dynamics deteriorated considerably throughout the world in 2001. The German economy, too, was seized by this. The dampening effects of the world economy were intensified by the consequences of the animal epidemics and a rather restrictive monetary policy. In addition economic growth was curbed by the persistent crisis in the construction industry. As a consequence of the cyclical weakness the strong growth of employment in Germany came to a standstill. On the whole in the annual average for 2001 the employment figure stood slightly (+0.2% or +70,000) above that of the previous year. This only applies to western Germany (+0.5% or +180,000), however, since in eastern Germany the employment figures fell once again (-1.7% or -110,000). In 2001 the labour force potential exceeded the level of the previous year by 120,000 persons (western Germany +180,000, eastern Germany -60,000) since the decreases associated with demography were more than offset above all by the labour force participation of women, which continued to increase strongly. As a result of the weakness in economic growth and employment dynamics, the development of unemployment fell short of expectations. In the course of 2002 the German economy is likely to recover gradually, but nevertheless at present no really good prospects are emerging for the further development. If the basic conditions in the world economy and in Germany's economy gradually improve, an economic growth of approx. 21/2% can be expected in 2003. The number of employed would then increase in the annual average by 210,000 persons or 0.5% and the unemployment figure would fall by about 100,000 to just under 3.9 million persons. (IAB2)Arbeitsmarktentwicklung, Beschäftigungsentwicklung, Arbeitslosigkeit, Wirtschaftsentwicklung, Arbeitskräfteangebot, Arbeitskräftenachfrage, Erwerbsbeteiligung, Erwerbspersonenpotenzial, Wanderung, Überstunden, Beschäftigungsfunktion, Arbeitszeitentwicklung, Erwerbstätige, arbeitsmarktpolitische Maßnahme, Westdeutschland, Ostdeutschland, Bundesrepublik Deutschland

Der Arbeitsmarkt in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland in den Jahren 1998 und 1999 (The labour market in the Federal Republic of Germany in 1998 and 1999)

"The prospects for economic development in 1999 are not bad. There is, however, an unusually large degree of uncertainty concerning the future development of the economy and the labour market. In view of this we are basing our alternative projection on a broad range of variation in the assumptions for real economic growth: it rules out neither the possibility of a slight setback in economic activity (gross domestic product: +1 %) nor a continuation of the economic upturn with further strong growth (+3 %). Today we consider the middle variant (+2 %) to be most likely to occur, however. Even this variant casts more of a shadow than light on the labour market in Germany, since employment will then no longer continue to develop in the same direction as so far, but will fall once more in the course of the year. Nevertheless the number of registered unemployed continues to fall because the drop in the labour force potential by about 0.2 million persons relieves the labour market balance on the supply side. In the annual average we then expect just under 4.1 million unemployed, some 200,000 less than the previous year. A pessimistic scenario forms the basis of Variant I. The assumed annual average economic growth of 1 % results from the favourable development of the previous year alone: if the production in the economy as a whole (seasonally adjusted) first fell slightly and then increased again, the result would be this slight increase in the annual average. This is therefore not a marked crisis scenario. For the labour market, however, this would be a painful setback as it would be necessary to reckon with a strong decline in employment (-0.3 % or 100,000 in the annual average). Although the relief on the supply side of the labour market balance would compensate for this, no further fall in the unemployment figure - apart from seasonal fluctuations - could be expected in the annual average. The drop in the annual average calculation (by about -120,000 to just under 4.2 million) would then result from the relatively low position at the beginning of the year alone. Variant III is based on an optimistic scenario: if export demand proved to be robust and tended to be weak only temporarily, then - seen for the whole year - an economic upturn could become established on a broad basis (GDP: + 3%). Under such favourable conditions we expect an increase in employment of 0.5 % or 160,000 to 34.1 million persons in the annual average for 1999. The unemployment figure could fall by almost 0.3 million to just under 4 million. The drop in the labour force potential contributes to this relief." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))Arbeitsmarktentwicklung, Wirtschaftswachstum, Beschäftigungsentwicklung, Arbeitslosigkeit, Wirtschaftsentwicklung, Arbeitskräfteangebot, Schiffbau, Arbeitskräftenachfrage, verarbeitendes Gewerbe, Erwerbspersonenpotenzial, Baugewerbe, Teilzeitarbeit, Dienstleistungsbereich, Arbeitsmarktpolitik, Westdeutschland, Ostdeutschland, Bundesrepublik Deutschland

Der Arbeitsmarkt in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland in den Jahren 1999 und 2000 (The labour market in the Federal Republic of Germany in 1999 and 2000)

"The prospects for Germany's economic development are good at present. Nonetheless there are also uncertainties and downsides. For this reason our labour market forecast for 2000 is based on a range of assumptions for the actual economic growth. The overview includes the basic data of these alternative calculations. Today we consider the middle variant (GDP +2.5%) the most likely to come true. This should bring about a change in the previous employment trend. The gradual, accelerated increase in the number of people in employment is supported by the reduction in annual working time. We reckon with an increase in the employment figure of 0.4% or +160,000 in the annual average. Unlike in the previous year, when employment stagnated over the year and the increase in the annual average had resulted from a statistical surplus alone, the increase in 2000 follows entirely from the dynamics in the course of the year. The stimulation of labour demand is, however, concentrated on the old Länder. The labour market policy measures should level off at a somewhat lower level. They continue to constitute a strong support of the eastern German labour market, though. In eastern and western Germany the tension on the labour market is easing once again on the supply side, since the labour force potential decreases by a total of 0.2 million people. There should be a further decreasing trend in the number unemployed in the course of the year 2000 and it should fall by 225,000 to about 3.88 million in the annual average. A provisional outlook at the year 2001 leads us to expect this trend to continue. A look across the national borders shows that positive impulses for the economy and labour demand should result once again from the improved world economy. A deeper component analysis of the labour force potential underlines the fact that demographic changes on the supply side are easing the tension on the labour market. Finally productivity- and employment-stabilising effects are derived from the increasing move towards flexibility through working time accounts." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))Arbeitsmarktentwicklung, Wirtschaftswachstum, Beschäftigungsentwicklung, Arbeitslosigkeit, Wirtschaftsentwicklung, Arbeitskräfteangebot, Außenhandel, Arbeitskräftenachfrage, Erwerbsbeteiligung, Erwerbspersonenpotenzial, demografischer Wandel, Wanderung, Arbeitszeitflexibilität, Arbeitsproduktivität, Arbeitsmarktpolitik, Westdeutschland, Ostdeutschland, Bundesrepublik Deutschland

Der Arbeitsmarkt in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland in den Jahren 2003 und 2004 (The labour market in the Federal Republic of Germany in 2003 and 2004)

"After looking back at the development of the economy and the labour market over the past few years, a prediction regarding the trends in 2003 and 2004 is made based on alternative assumptions of overall economic growth. After this, selected topics are dealt with in more detail (foreign trade developments, labour market dynamics and labour market policy in Germany). The continuing weakness of the global economy since 2001 has placed a burden on the German economy because of its close external links. In spite of that, the relatively stable development of exports has prevented an even weaker overall economic result. So far, a self-sustaining momentum of the German domestic economy has not developed. At present, any substantial economic impetus of the global economy can be expected almost only from the US economy. The prospects for the German labour market in 2003 have not brightened up after two years of economic stagnation. A fast and strong economic recovery cannot be reckoned with at the moment. Employment will tend to decline further and underemployment rise again significantly. It is true that the traditional measures of employment promotion provided by the Federal Employment Services avoid open unemployment and thus ease the burden on the labour market to a considerable extent, but with a declining tendency. On the other hand the measures aimed at direct integration into the primary labour market are increasing considerably. But considering the prevailing economic conditions, their effectiveness could be modest. Finally, important steps aimed at reforming the labour market have been taken. However, noticeable effects can only be expected gradually. Stabilisation on the labour market can only be reckoned with towards the end of 2003, even if the economy recovers in the second half of 2003 and grows by 0.5 per cent in 2003. In the annual average, 4.4 million unemployed would be recorded, that is 340,000 more than in the previous year. The analysis shows that even in times of high and rising underemployment, there are considerable movements on the labour market, especially between employment and unemployment. This proves the fundamental functionality of the labour market. In 2004, a considerable improvement on the labour market could be expected resulting from a recovery in foreign trade combined with the labour market reforms. Even if the economy grows by 2 per cent, however, 4.35 million unemployed in the annual average will have to be reckoned with from today's standpoint." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))Arbeitsmarktentwicklung, Beschäftigungsentwicklung, Arbeitslosigkeit, Wirtschaftsentwicklung, Arbeitskräfteangebot, Arbeitskräftenachfrage, Erwerbsbeteiligung, Erwerbspersonenpotenzial, Wanderung, Überstunden, Beschäftigungsfunktion, Arbeitszeitentwicklung, Erwerbstätige, arbeitsmarktpolitische Maßnahme, Außenwirtschaft, Arbeitsmarktpolitik - Reform, stille Reserve, Westdeutschland, Ostdeutschland, Bundesrepublik Deutschland

Testing General Relativity with Present and Future Astrophysical Observations

One century after its formulation, Einstein's general relativity has maderemarkable predictions and turned out to be compatible with all experimentaltests. Most of these tests probe the theory in the weak-field regime, and thereare theoretical and experimental reasons to believe that general relativityshould be modified when gravitational fields are strong and spacetime curvatureis large. The best astrophysical laboratories to probe strong-field gravity areblack holes and neutron stars, whether isolated or in binary systems. We reviewthe motivations to consider extensions of general relativity. We present a(necessarily incomplete) catalog of modified theories of gravity for whichstrong-field predictions have been computed and contrasted to Einstein'stheory, and we summarize our current understanding of the structure anddynamics of compact objects in these theories. We discuss current bounds onmodified gravity from binary pulsar and cosmological observations, and wehighlight the potential of future gravitational wave measurements to inform uson the behavior of gravity in the strong-field regime

New genetic loci link adipose and insulin biology to body fat distribution.

Body fat distribution is a heritable trait and a well-established predictor of adverse metabolic outcomes, independent of overall adiposity. To increase our understanding of the genetic basis of body fat distribution and its molecular links to cardiometabolic traits, here we conduct genome-wide association meta-analyses of traits related to waist and hip circumferences in up to 224,459 individuals. We identify 49 loci (33 new) associated with waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index (BMI), and an additional 19 loci newly associated with related waist and hip circumference measures (P < 5 × 10(-8)). In total, 20 of the 49 waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI loci show significant sexual dimorphism, 19 of which display a stronger effect in women. The identified loci were enriched for genes expressed in adipose tissue and for putative regulatory elements in adipocytes. Pathway analyses implicated adipogenesis, angiogenesis, transcriptional regulation and insulin resistance as processes affecting fat distribution, providing insight into potential pathophysiological mechanisms

Production of He-4 and (4) in Pb-Pb collisions at root(NN)-N-S=2.76 TeV at the LHC

Results on the production of He-4 and (4) nuclei in Pb-Pb collisions at root(NN)-N-S = 2.76 TeV in the rapidity range vertical bar y vertical bar <1, using the ALICE detector, are presented in this paper. The rapidity densities corresponding to 0-10% central events are found to be dN/dy4(He) = (0.8 +/- 0.4 (stat) +/- 0.3 (syst)) x 10(-6) and dN/dy4 = (1.1 +/- 0.4 (stat) +/- 0.2 (syst)) x 10(-6), respectively. This is in agreement with the statistical thermal model expectation assuming the same chemical freeze-out temperature (T-chem = 156 MeV) as for light hadrons. The measured ratio of (4)/He-4 is 1.4 +/- 0.8 (stat) +/- 0.5 (syst). (C) 2018 Published by Elsevier B.V.Peer reviewe

Detection of Quantum Noise from an E|ectrica|[y Driven Two-Leve| System

he electrical noise of mesoscopic devices can be strongly influenced by the quantum motion of electrons. To probe this effect, we have measured the current fluctuations at high frequency (5 to 90 gigahertz) using a superconductorinsulator-superconductor tunnel junction as an on-chip spectrum analyzer. By coupling this frequency-resolved noise detector to a quantum device, we can measure the high-frequency, nonsymmetrized noise as demonstrated for a Josephson junction. The same scheme is used to detect the current fluctuations arising from coherent charge oscil[ations in a two-level system, a superconducting charge qubit. A narrow band peak is observed in the spectral noise density at the frequency of the coherent charge oscillations. Electrical noise, or fluctuations in the current, has proved to be a powerful tool to probe mesoscopic devices (1). At high frequency, it can bear strong signatures of the dynanfics resulting from quantum mechanics. One of the simplest systems to study this effect is a two-level system (TLS) with two coupled quantmn states, [0&gt; and I 1&gt;, that can form a coherent superposition, a 10&gt; + [3 II&gt;, with c~ and [3 complex ntunbers The central idea is illustrated in The idea above is very general and theoretical predictions on narrow band noise exist for Bloch oscillations in a double quantum well (4), charge oscillations in superconducting (5) and semiconducting qubits (6), and electron spin resonance oscillations (7). The experimental detection is difficult as the frequency, f, of the coherent oscillations is typically in the GHz range in order to fulfill the condition hf &gt;&gt; kBT , where k~3T is the thermal energy (8). We report a detection scheme from which we obtain the frequency-resolved spectral density of current noise in the range of 5 to 90 GHz (9). Our detection scheme follows the ideas of (10, 11): a quantum device is coupled on-chip to a detector that converts the high-frequency noise signal into a direct current (DC). The on-chip coupling provides a large frequency bandwidth (-100 GHz), whereas the conversion to DC allows standard amplification of the signal (12). Our detector is a superconductor- To validate our noise detection, we have first measured on a Josephson junction (Jj) for which the high-frequency fluctuations are well known ( For a quantitative description, we consider an SIS junction subject to current fluctuations. The PAT current for a bias eVs~s &lt; 2A is given b

Analyse und Vorausschau der kurzfristigen Arbeitsmarktentwicklung

'Die kurzfristige Arbeitsmarktanalyse und -vorausschau umfasst die Diagnose und Erklaerung des aktuellen Arbeitsmarktgeschehens sowie Alternativprojektionen fuer einen Zeitraum bis zu zwei Jahren. Der Beitrag beschreibt, wie sich ein vollstaendiges Bild des kurzfristigen Arbeitsmarktgeschehens durch die Darstellung von Arbeitsnachfrageseite, Arbeitsangebot, Arbeitsmarktbilanz, Arbeitskraeftegesamtrechnung und Abbildung von Volumen und Finanzierung der (aktiven und passiven) Arbeitsmarktpolitik ergibt. Zusaetzlich wird das vom IAB zusammen mit dem RWI entwickelte makrooekonometrische Kurzfristprojektionsmodell mit Arbeitsmarktmodul vorgestellt, das die bisher verwendeten Analyse- und Projektionsansaetze ergaenzen und eine weitere Verbesserung der Vorausschau bewirken soll.' (Autorenreferat)SIGLEAvailable from IAB-3217 BM 477 / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekDEGerman