Developing a framework for the assessment of current and future flood risk in Venice, Italy

Flooding causes serious impacts on the old town of Venice, its residents, and its cultural heritage. Despite this existence-defining condition, limited scientific knowledge on flood risk of the old town of Venice is available to support decisions to mitigate existing and future flood impacts. Therefore, this study proposes a risk assessment framework to provide a methodical and flexible instrument for decision-making for flood risk management in Venice. We first use a state-of-the-art hydrodynamic urban model to identify the hazard characteristics inside the city of Venice. Exposure, vulnerability, and corresponding damage are then modeled by a multi-parametric, micro-scale damage model which is adapted to the specific context of Venice with its dense urban structure and high risk awareness. Furthermore, a set of individual protection scenarios are implemented to account for possible variability in flood preparedness of the residents. This developed risk assessment framework was tested for the flood event of 12 November 2019 and proved able to reproduce flood characteristics and resulting damage well. A scenario analysis based on a meteorological event like 12 November 2019 was conducted to derive flood damage estimates for the year 2060 for a set of sea level rise scenarios in combination with a (partially) functioning storm surge barrier, the Modulo Sperimentale Elettromeccanico (MOSE). The analysis suggests that a functioning MOSE barrier could prevent flood damage for the considered storm event and sea level scenarios almost entirely. A partially closed MOSE barrier (open Lido inlet) could reduce the damage by up to 34 % for optimistic sea level rise prognoses. However, damage could be 10 % to 600 % higher in 2060 compared to 2019 for a partial closure of the storm surge barrier, depending on different levels of individual protection.</p

(E)-Benzaldehyde O-{[3-(pyridin-3-yl)isoxazol-5-yl]meth­yl}oxime

The asymmetric unit of the title compound, C16H13N3O2, contains two independent mol­ecules in which the pyridine and benzene rings form dihedral angles of 81.7 (2) and 79.8 (2)°, indicating the twist in the mol­ecules. In the crystal, weak C—H⋯N inter­actions link mol­ecules into chains along [100]

High infestation of invasive Aedes mosquitoes in used tires along the local transport network of Panama

Background: The long‑distance dispersal of the invasive disease vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus has intro‑ duced arthropod‑borne viruses into new geographical regions, causing a significant medical and economic burden. The used‑tire industry is an effective means of Aedes dispersal, yet studies to determine Aedes occurrence and the factors influencing their distribution along local transport networks are lacking. To assess infestation along the primary transport network of Panama we documented all existing garages that trade used tires on the highway and surveyed a subset for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. We also assess the ability of a mass spectrometry approach to classify mos‑ quito eggs by comparing our findings to those based on traditional larval surveillance. Results: Both Aedes species had a high infestation rate in garages trading used tires along the highways, providing a conduit for rapid dispersal across Panama. However, generalized linear models revealed that the presence of Ae. aegypti is associated with an increase in road density by a log‑odds of 0.44 (0.73 ± 0.16; P = 0.002), while the presence of Ae. albopictus is associated with a decrease in road density by a log‑odds of 0.36 (0.09 ± 0.63; P = 0.008). Identifica‑ tion of mosquito eggs by mass spectrometry depicted similar occurrence patterns for both Aedes species as that obtained with traditional rearing methods. Conclusions: Garages trading used tires along highways should be targeted for the surveillance and control of Aedes‑mosquitoes and the diseases they transmit. The identification of mosquito eggs using mass spectrometry allows for the rapid evaluation of Aedes presence, affording time and cost advantages over traditional vector surveil‑ lance; this is of importance for disease risk assessment.Background: The long‑distance dispersal of the invasive disease vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus has intro‑ duced arthropod‑borne viruses into new geographical regions, causing a significant medical and economic burden. The used‑tire industry is an effective means of Aedes dispersal, yet studies to determine Aedes occurrence and the factors influencing their distribution along local transport networks are lacking. To assess infestation along the primary transport network of Panama we documented all existing garages that trade used tires on the highway and surveyed a subset for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. We also assess the ability of a mass spectrometry approach to classify mos‑ quito eggs by comparing our findings to those based on traditional larval surveillance. Results: Both Aedes species had a high infestation rate in garages trading used tires along the highways, providing a conduit for rapid dispersal across Panama. However, generalized linear models revealed that the presence of Ae. aegypti is associated with an increase in road density by a log‑odds of 0.44 (0.73 ± 0.16; P = 0.002), while the presence of Ae. albopictus is associated with a decrease in road density by a log‑odds of 0.36 (0.09 ± 0.63; P = 0.008). Identifica‑ tion of mosquito eggs by mass spectrometry depicted similar occurrence patterns for both Aedes species as that obtained with traditional rearing methods. Conclusions: Garages trading used tires along highways should be targeted for the surveillance and control of Aedes‑mosquitoes and the diseases they transmit. The identification of mosquito eggs using mass spectrometry allows for the rapid evaluation of Aedes presence, affording time and cost advantages over traditional vector surveil‑ lance; this is of importance for disease risk assessment

High proportion of cactus species threatened with extinction

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Nature Publishing Group via the DOI in this record.Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologí

Diminishing benefits of urban living for children and adolescents’ growth and development

Optimal growth and development in childhood and adolescence is crucial for lifelong health and well-being1–6. Here we used data from 2,325 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight from 71 million participants, to report the height and body-mass index (BMI) of children and adolescents aged 5–19 years on the basis of rural and urban place of residence in 200 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020. In 1990, children and adolescents residing in cities were taller than their rural counterparts in all but a few high-income&nbsp;countries. By 2020, the urban height advantage became smaller in most countries, and in many high-income western countries it reversed into a small urban-based disadvantage. The exception was for boys in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and in some countries in Oceania, south Asia and the region of central Asia, Middle East and north Africa. In these countries, successive cohorts of boys from rural places either did not gain height or possibly became shorter, and hence fell further behind their urban peers. The difference between the age-standardized mean BMI of children in urban and rural areas was &lt;1.1 kg m–2 in the vast majority of&nbsp;countries. Within this small range, BMI increased slightly more in cities than in rural areas, except in south Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and some countries in central and eastern Europe. Our results show that in much of the world, the growth and developmental advantages of living in cities have diminished in the twenty-first century, whereas in much of sub-Saharan Africa they have amplified

Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants

Summary Background Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents. Methods For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5–19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence. Findings We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9–10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes—gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both—occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls. Interpretation The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

Background Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories. Methods We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5–19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI &lt;18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For school&#x2;aged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI &lt;2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI &gt;2 SD above the median). Findings From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness. Interpretation The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesit