Beyond the angle of repose: A review and synthesis of landslide processes in response to rapid uplift, Eel River, Northern California

In mountainous settings, increases in rock uplift are often followed by a commensurate uptick in denudation as rivers incise and steepen hillslopes, making them increasingly prone to landsliding as slope angles approach a limiting value. For decades, the threshold slope model has been invoked to account for landslide-driven increases in sediment flux that limit topographic relief, but the manner by which slope failures organize themselves spatially and temporally in order for erosion to keep pace with rock uplift has not been well documented. Here, we review past work and present new findings from remote sensing, cosmogenic radionuclides, suspended sediment records, and airborne lidar data, to decipher patterns of landslide activity and geomorphic processes related to rapid uplift along the northward-migrating Mendocino Triple Junction in Northern California. From historical air photos and airborne lidar, we estimated the velocity and sediment flux associated with active, slow-moving landslides (or earthflows) in the mélange- and argillite-dominated Eel River watershed using the downslope displacement of surface markers such as trees and shrubs. Although active landslides that directly convey sediment into the channel network account for only 7% of the landscape surface, their sediment flux amounts to more than 50% of the suspended load recorded at downstream sediment gaging stations. These active slides tend to exhibit seasonal variations in velocity as satellite-based interferometry has demonstrated that rapid acceleration commences within 1 to 2 months of the onset of autumn rainfall events before slower deceleration ensues in the spring and summer months. Curiously, this seasonal velocity pattern does not appear to vary with landslide size, suggesting that complex hydrologic–mechanical feedbacks (rather than 1-D pore pressure diffusion) may govern slide dynamics. A new analysis of 14 yrs of discharge and sediment concentration data for the Eel River indicates that the characteristic mid-winter timing of earthflow acceleration corresponds with increased suspended concentration values, suggesting that the seasonal onset of landslide motion each year may be reflected in the export of sediments to the continental margin. The vast majority of active slides exhibit gullied surfaces and the gully networks, which are also seasonally active, may facilitate sediment export although the proportion of material produced by this pathway is poorly known. Along Kekawaka Creek, a prominent tributary to the Eel River, new analyses of catchment-averaged erosion rates derived from cosmogenic radionuclides reveal rapid erosion (0.76 mm/yr) below a prominent knickpoint and slower erosion (0.29 mm/yr) upstream. Such knickpoints are frequently observed in Eel tributaries and are usually comprised of massive (> 10 m) interlocking resistant boulders that likely persist in the landscape for long periods of time (> 105 yr). Upstream of these knickpoints, active landslides tend to be less frequent and average slope angles are slightly gentler than in downstream areas, which indicates that landslide density and average slope angle appear to increase with erosion rate. Lastly, we synthesize evidence for the role of large, catastrophic landslides in regulating sediment flux and landscape form. The emergence of resistant blocks within the mélange bedrock has promoted large catastrophic slides that have dammed the Eel River and perhaps generated outburst events in the past. The frequency and impact of these landslide dams likely depend on the spatial and size distributions of resistant blocks relative to the width and drainage area of adjacent valley networks. Overall, our findings demonstrate that landslides within the Eel River catchment do not occur randomly, but instead exhibit spatial and temporal patterns related to baselevel lowering, climate forcing, and lithologic variations. Combined with recent landscape evolution models that incorporate landslides, these results provide predictive capability for estimating erosion rates and managing hazards in mountainous regions

Global and local: retail transformation and the department store in Britain and Japan, 1900-1940

Department stores are often seen as transformative of both retail and wider social practices. This article offers a comparative analysis of department stores in early twentieth-century Britain and Japan to assess the extent to which there were universal qualities defining the operation, practices, and experience of department stores and to explore the ways in which they might be seen as transforming retailing in the two countries. Despite similarities in their origin, organization, and service to customers, we highlight the greater diversity of British department stores and their incremental development. Japanese stores were a far more powerful force for change because they formed part of a concerted and conscious program of modernization

Burden of injury along the development spectrum : associations between the Socio-demographic Index and disability-adjusted life year estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background The epidemiological transition of non-communicable diseases replacing infectious diseases as the main contributors to disease burden has been well documented in global health literature. Less focus, however, has been given to the relationship between sociodemographic changes and injury. The aim of this study was to examine the association between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from injury for 195 countries and territories at different levels along the development spectrum between 1990 and 2017 based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates. Methods Injury mortality was estimated using the GBD mortality database, corrections for garbage coding and CODEm-the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on surveys and inpatient and outpatient data sets for 30 cause-of-injury with 47 nature-of-injury categories each. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) is a composite indicator that includes lagged income per capita, average educational attainment over age 15 years and total fertility rate. Results For many causes of injury, age-standardised DALY rates declined with increasing SDI, although road injury, interpersonal violence and self-harm did not follow this pattern. Particularly for self-harm opposing patterns were observed in regions with similar SDI levels. For road injuries, this effect was less pronounced. Conclusions The overall global pattern is that of declining injury burden with increasing SDI. However, not all injuries follow this pattern, which suggests multiple underlying mechanisms influencing injury DALYs. There is a need for a detailed understanding of these patterns to help to inform national and global efforts to address injury-related health outcomes across the development spectrum.Peer reviewe

Novel genetic loci underlying human intracranial volume identified through genome-wide association

Intracranial volume reflects the maximally attained brain size during development, and remains stable with loss of tissue in late life. It is highly heritable, but the underlying genes remain largely undetermined. In a genome-wide association study of 32,438 adults, we discovered five novel loci for intracranial volume and confirmed two known signals. Four of the loci are also associated with adult human stature, but these remained associated with intracranial volume after adjusting for height. We found a high genetic correlation with child head circumference (ρgenetic=0.748), which indicated a similar genetic background and allowed for the identification of four additional loci through meta-analysis (Ncombined = 37,345). Variants for intracranial volume were also related to childhood and adult cognitive function, Parkinson’s disease, and enriched near genes involved in growth pathways including PI3K–AKT signaling. These findings identify biological underpinnings of intracranial volume and provide genetic support for theories on brain reserve and brain overgrowth

Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017 : results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Correction:Background Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries. Methods We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Findings In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505). Interpretation Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.Peer reviewe

Global epidemiology of hip fractures: a study protocol using a common analytical platform among multiple countries

INTRODUCTION: Hip fractures are associated with a high burden of morbidity and mortality. Globally, there is wide variation in the incidence of hip fracture in people aged 50 years and older. Longitudinal and cross-geographical comparisons of health data can provide insights on aetiology, risk factors, and healthcare practices. However, systematic reviews of studies that use different methods and study periods do not permit direct comparison across geographical regions. Thus, the objective of this study is to investigate global secular trends in hip fracture incidence, mortality and use of postfracture pharmacological treatment across Asia, Oceania, North and South America, and Western and Northern Europe using a unified methodology applied to health records. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This retrospective cohort study will use a common protocol and an analytical common data model approach to examine incidence of hip fracture across population-based databases in different geographical regions and healthcare settings. The study period will be from 2005 to 2018 subject to data availability in study sites. Patients aged 50 years and older and hospitalised due to hip fracture during the study period will be included. The primary outcome will be expressed as the annual incidence of hip fracture. Secondary outcomes will be the pharmacological treatment rate and mortality within 12 months following initial hip fracture by year. For the primary outcome, crude and standardised incidence of hip fracture will be reported. Linear regression will be used to test for time trends in the annual incidence. For secondary outcomes, the crude mortality and standardised mortality incidence will be reported. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Each participating site will follow the relevant local ethics and regulatory frameworks for study approval. The results of the study will be submitted for peer-reviewed scientific publications and presented at scientific conferences

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.

BACKGROUND: Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. FINDINGS: Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2·9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2·9-3·0) for men and 3·5 years (3·4-3·7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0·85 years (0·78-0·92) and 1·2 years (1·1-1·3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. INTERPRETATION: Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation