Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of “leaving no one behind”. Understanding today’s gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990–2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.

BACKGROUND: Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. FINDINGS: Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2·9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2·9-3·0) for men and 3·5 years (3·4-3·7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0·85 years (0·78-0·92) and 1·2 years (1·1-1·3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. INTERPRETATION: Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Forouzanfar MH, Afshin A, Alexander LT, et al. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. LANCET. 2016;388(10053):1659-1724.Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57.8% (95% CI 56.6-58.8) of global deaths and 41.2% (39.8-42.8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211.8 million [192.7 million to 231.1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148.6 million [134.2 million to 163.1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143.1 million [125.1 million to 163.5 million]), high BMI (120.1 million [83.8 million to 158.4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113.3 million [103.9 million to 123.4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103.1 million [90.8 million to 115.1 million]), high total cholesterol (88.7 million [74.6 million to 105.7 million]), household air pollution (85.6 million [66.7 million to 106.1 million]), alcohol use (85.0 million [77.2 million to 93.0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83.0 million [49.3 million to 127.5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd

Academic stress in college students: descriptive analyses and scoring of the SISCO-II inventory

In a competitive and demanding world, academic stress is of increasing concern to students. This systemic, adaptive, and psychological process is composed of stressful stimuli, imbalance symptoms, and coping strategies. The SISCO-II Academic Stress Inventory (SISCO-II-AS) is a psychometric instrument validated in Chile. It evaluates stressors, symptoms, and coping, both individually and globally. For its practical interpretation, a scale is required. Therefore, this study aims to descriptively analyze the SISCO-II-AS and to obtain its corresponding scales. Employing a non-experimental quantitative approach, we administered the SISCO-II-AS to 1,049 second and third-year students from three Chilean universities, with a disproportionate gender representation of 75.21% female to 24.79% male participants. Through descriptive and bivariate analysis, we established norms based on percentiles. For the complete instrument and its subscales, significant differences by sex were identified, with magnitudes varying from small to moderate. For the full instrument and its subscales, bar scale norms by percentile and sex are presented. Each subscale (stressors, physical and psychological reactions, social behavioural reactions, total reaction, and coping) has score ranges defined for low, medium, and high levels. These ranges vary according to the sex of the respondent, with notable differences in stressors and physical, psychological, and social behavioural reactions. This study stands out for its broad and heterogeneous sample, which enriches the representativeness of the data. It offers a comprehensive view of academic stress in college students, identifying distinctive factors and highlighting the importance of gender-sensitive approaches. Its findings contribute to understanding and guide future interventions. By offering a descriptive analysis of the SISCO-II-AS inventory and establishing bar norms, this research aids health professionals and educators in better assessing and addressing academic stress in the student population

Increased academic stress is associated with decreased plasma BDNF in Chilean college students

Introduction Academic stress (AS) is a prevalent challenge faced by university students, potentially affecting molecular indicators such as brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) and global DNA methylation (G-DNA-M). These indicators could illuminate the physiological ramifications of academic stress. Study Design and Methods This research followed a quantitative, non-experimental, longitudinal panel design spanning two academic semesters, observing phenomena in their natural context. Students from the Medical Technology program at Universidad de Concepción, Chile were involved, with assessments at the beginning and during heightened academic stress periods. Sample Of the total participants, 63.0% were females, with an average age of 21.14 years at baseline, and 36.92% were males, averaging 21.36 years. By the study’s conclusion, female participants averaged 21.95 years, and males 22.13 years. Results Significant differences were observed between initial and final assessments for the SISCO-II Inventory of Academic Stress and Beck Depression Inventory-II, notably in stressor scores, and physical, and psychological reactions. Gender differences emerged in the final physical and psychological reactions. No significant changes were detected between the two assessments in plasma BDNF or G-DNA-M values. A refined predictive model showcased that, on average, there was a 3.56% decrease in females’ plasma BDNF at the final assessment and a 17.14% decrease in males. In the sample, the G-DNA-M percentage at the final assessment increased by 15.06% from the baseline for females and 18.96% for males. Conclusions The study underscores the physiological impact of academic stress on university students, evidenced by changes in markers like BDNF and G-DNA-M. These findings offer an in-depth understanding of the intricate mechanisms regulating academic stress responses and highlight the need for interventions tailored to mitigate its physiological and psychological effects

Interaction of Val66Met BDNF and 5-HTTLPR polymorphisms with prevalence of post-earthquake 27-F PTSD in Chilean population

Post-traumatic stress (PTSD) disorder is a mental health condition that can occur after experiencing or witnessing a traumatic event. The 27-F earthquake that struck Chile in 2010 was one such event that had a significant impact on the mental health of the population. A study was conducted to investigate the prevalence of PTSD and its associated factors among survivors of this earthquake. The study was a longitudinal design, involving a sample of 913 patients aged 18 to 75 years who attended 10 Primary Care Centers in Concepción, Chile. The Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) was used to assess both depressive episodes (DE) and PTSD before and after the earthquake. The study also involved genotyping studies using saliva samples from the participants, specifically focusing on the Val66Met and 5-HTTLPR polymorphisms. Statistical analysis was performed to examine the association between different variables and the presence of PTSD. These variables included demographic factors, family history of psychiatric disorders, DE, childhood maltreatment experiences, and critical traumatic events related to the earthquake. The results showed that the incidence of post-earthquake PTSD was 11.06%. No significant differences were found between the groups of participants who developed post-earthquake PTSD regarding the Val66Met or 5-HTTLPR polymorphisms. However, a significant association was found between the concomitant diagnosis of DE and the development of post-earthquake PTSD. The presence of DE doubled the risk of developing post-earthquake PTSD. The number of traumatic events experienced also had a statistically significant association with an increased risk of developing post-earthquake PTSD. The study’s limitations include the potential interference of different DE subtypes, the complexity of quantifying the degree of earthquake exposure experienced by each individual, and events entailing social disruption, such as looting, that can profoundly influence distress. In conclusion, the study found that PTSD following the 27-F earthquake in Chile was associated with a concomitant diagnosis of DE and the number of traumatic events experienced. The study did not find a significant association between PTSD and the Val66Met or 5-HTTLPR polymorphisms. The researchers recommend that mental health professionals should prioritize the detection and treatment of concomitant depressive episodes and exposure to critical traumatic events in survivors of disasters. They also suggest that further research is needed to better understand the relationship between genetic factors and post-disaster PTSD

(2016-2017) Assembly Resolution 25: In Opposition of Senate Bill 4

Governmen

Techos Aligerados, Encofrados - AR291 - 202101

Descripción: En el curso de Techos Aligerados, Encofrados, el cual es teórico práctico, se realizan propuestas de diseño para la problemática del cierre o cobertura del espacio arquitectónico, implica el conocimiento y la aplicación de diversos sistemas constructivos para el cerramiento del proyecto, con especial énfasis en el aspecto estructural y en el uso del concreto armado. Además, en base al conocimiento teórico impartido en el aula, en el Taller de Construcción se realizan las prácticas de una obra a escala real, utilizando diversos materiales y sistemas constructivos, lo que permite al estudiante poner en práctica lo aprendido, evaluando los alcances y limitaciones de cada sistema constructivo de una obra. 1 Asimismo, el de recrear la dinámica que se da en una obra. Reconocerá los roles y alcances de intervención de los diversos Stakeholders que participan del diseño y la ejecución de las obras, formando grupos de trabajo con un líder (capataz), un comunicador y un ejecutor de cada proceso; todo ello como simulación de la realidad y cumpliendo con las normativas básicas de seguridad y protección personal, aspectos con los cuales el futuro arquitecto va a interactuar en su práctica profesional Propósito: La finalidad del curso es enseñar al estudiante conceptos constructivos, a través de la parte teórica junto con la práctica de campo, para proponer y diseñar soluciones para el cierre del espacio arquitectónico. Se busca potenciar habilidades relacionadas al razonamiento cuantitativo como manejo de cantidades (metrados) y de valorizaciones (costos unitarios). Esto con el fin que el egresado esté preparado para afrontar los problemas tanto de diseño como de los procedimientos para construirlo. Se busca contribuir al desarrollo de la competencia general UPC: Razonamiento cuantitativo y las competencias específicas: Técnica y Construcción (que corresponde a los criterios NAAB : SC1, SC4, SC6), y Gestión profesional (que corresponde a los criterios PC6, SC2), todas en nivel 2. El curso tiene como requisito los cursos de: AR294 Albañilería Simple y Armada y AR212 Modelación Estructural I

Techos Aligerados y Encofrados - AR346 - 202102

Descripción: En el curso de Techos Aligerados, Encofrados, el cual es teórico práctico, se realizan propuestas de diseño para la problemática del cierre o cobertura del espacio arquitectónico, implica el conocimiento y la aplicación de diversos sistemas constructivos para el cerramiento del proyecto, con especial énfasis en el aspecto estructural y en el uso del concreto armado. Además, en base al conocimiento teórico impartido en el aula, en el Taller de Construcción se realizan las prácticas de una obra a escala real, utilizando diversos materiales y sistemas constructivos, lo que permite al estudiante poner en práctica lo aprendido, evaluando los alcances y limitaciones de cada sistema constructivo de una obra. 1 Asimismo, el de recrear la dinámica que se da en una obra. Reconocerá los roles y alcances de intervención de los diversos Stakeholders que participan del diseño y la ejecución de las obras, formando grupos de trabajo con un líder (capataz), un comunicador y un ejecutor de cada proceso; todo ello como simulación de la realidad y cumpliendo con las normativas básicas de seguridad y protección personal, aspectos con los cuales el futuro arquitecto va a interactuar en su práctica profesional Propósito: La finalidad del curso es enseñar al estudiante conceptos constructivos, a través de la parte teórica junto con la práctica de campo, para proponer y diseñar soluciones para el cierre del espacio arquitectónico. Se busca potenciar habilidades relacionadas al razonamiento cuantitativo como manejo de cantidades (metrados) y de valorizaciones (costos unitarios). Esto con el fin que el egresado esté preparado para afrontar los problemas tanto de diseño como de los procedimientos para construirlo. Se busca contribuir al desarrollo de la competencia general UPC: Razonamiento cuantitativo y las competencias específicas: Técnica y Construcción (que corresponde a los criterios NAAB : SC1, SC4, SC6), y Gestión profesional (que corresponde a los criterios PC6, SC2), todas en nivel 2. El curso tiene como requisito los cursos de: AR294 Albañilería Simple y Armada y AR212 Modelación Estructural I

Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries : an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Background The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030. Methods We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2.5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97.5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. Findings Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56.7 (IQR 31.9-66.8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86.8, 95% uncertainty interval 84.6-88.9), Iceland (86.0, 84.1-87.6), and Sweden (85.6, 81.8-87.8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10.9, 9.6-11.9), the Central African Republic (11.0, 8.8-13.8), and Somalia (11.3, 9.5-13.1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2-8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides an updated and expanded evidence base on where the world currently stands in terms of the health-related SDGs. Our improved measure of UHC offers a basis to monitor the expansion of health services necessary to meet the SDGs. Based on past rates of progress, many places are facing challenges in meeting defined health-related SDG targets, particularly among countries that are the worst off. In view of the early stages of SDG implementation, however, opportunity remains to take actions to accelerate progress, as shown by the catalytic effects of adopting the Millennium Development Goals after 2000. With the SDGs' broader, bolder development agenda, multisectoral commitments and investments are vital to make the health-related SDGs within reach of all populations. Copyright The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article published under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe