Evolutionary games on graphs

Game theory is one of the key paradigms behind many scientific disciplines from biology to behavioral sciences to economics. In its evolutionary form and especially when the interacting agents are linked in a specific social network the underlying solution concepts and methods are very similar to those applied in non-equilibrium statistical physics. This review gives a tutorial-type overview of the field for physicists. The first three sections introduce the necessary background in classical and evolutionary game theory from the basic definitions to the most important results. The fourth section surveys the topological complications implied by non-mean-field-type social network structures in general. The last three sections discuss in detail the dynamic behavior of three prominent classes of models: the Prisoner's Dilemma, the Rock-Scissors-Paper game, and Competing Associations. The major theme of the review is in what sense and how the graph structure of interactions can modify and enrich the picture of long term behavioral patterns emerging in evolutionary games.Comment: Review, final version, 133 pages, 65 figure

Variational Autoencoder Based Estimation Of Distribution Algorithms And Applications To Individual Based Ecosystem Modeling Using EcoSim

Individual based modeling provides a bottom up approach wherein interactions give rise to high-level phenomena in patterns equivalent to those found in nature. This method generates an immense amount of data through artificial simulation and can be made tractable by machine learning where multidimensional data is optimized and transformed. Using individual based modeling platform known as EcoSim, we modeled the abilities of elitist sexual selection and communication of fear. Data received from these experiments was reduced in dimension through use of a novel algorithm proposed by us: Variational Autoencoder based Estimation of Distribution Algorithms with Population Queue and Adaptive Variance Scaling (VAE-EDA-Q AVS). We constructed a novel Estimation of Distribution Algorithm (EDA) by extending generative models known as variational autoencoders (VAE). VAE-EDA-Q, proposed by us, smooths the data generation process using an iteratively updated queue (Q) of populations. Adaptive Variance Scaling (AVS) dynamically updates the variance at which models are sampled based on fitness. The combination of VAE-EDA-Q with AVS demonstrates high computational efficiency and requires few fitness evaluations. We extended VAE-EDA-Q AVS to act as a feature reducing wrapper method in conjunction with C4.5 Decision trees to reduce the dimensionality of data. The relationship between sexual selection, random selection, and speciation is a contested topic. Supporting evidence suggests sexual selection to drive speciation. Opposing evidence contends either a negative or absence of correlation to exist. We utilized EcoSim to model elitist and random mate selection. Our results demonstrated a significantly lower speciation rate, a significantly lower extinction rate, and a significantly higher turnover rate for sexual selection groups. Species diversification was found to display no significant difference. The relationship between communication and foraging behavior similarly features opposing hypotheses in claim of both increases and decreases of foraging behavior in response to alarm communication. Through modeling with EcoSim, we found alarm communication to decrease foraging activity in most cases, yet gradually increase foraging activity in some other cases. Furthermore, we found both outcomes resulting from alarm communication to increase fitness as compared to non-communication

Diffusion-driven instabilities and emerging spatial patterns in patchy landscapes

Spatial variation in population densities across a landscape is a feature of many ecological systems, from self-organised patterns on mussel beds to spatially restricted insect outbreaks. It occurs as a result of environmental variation in abiotic factors and/or biotic factors structuring the spatial distribution of populations. However the ways in which abiotic and biotic factors interact to determine the existence and nature of spatial patterns in population density remain poorly understood. Here we present a new approach to studying this question by analysing a predator–prey patch-model in a heterogenous landscape. We use analytical and numerical methods originally developed for studying nearest- neighbour (juxtacrine) signalling in epithelia to explore whether and under which conditions patterns emerge. We find that abiotic and biotic factors interact to promote pattern formation. In fact, we find a rich and highly complex array of coexisting stable patterns, located within an enormous number of unstable patterns. Our simulation results indicate that many of the stable patterns have appreciable basins of attraction, making them significant in applications. We are able to identify mechanisms for these patterns based on the classical ideas of long-range inhibition and short-range activation, whereby landscape heterogeneity can modulate the spatial scales at which these processes operate to structure the populations

A look at the relationship between industrial dynamics and aggregate fluctuations

The firmly established evidence of right-skewness of the firms’ size distribution is generally modelled recurring to some variant of the Gibrat’s Law of Proportional Effects. In spite of its empirical success, this approach has been harshly criticized on a theoretical ground due to its lack of economic contents and its unpleasant long-run implications. In this chapter we show that a right-skewed firms’ size distribution, with its upper tail scaling down as a power law, arises naturally from a simple choice-theoretic model based on financial market imperfections and a wage setting relationship. Our results rest on a multi-agent generalization of the prey-predator model, firstly introduced into economics by Richard Goodwin forty years ago.Firm size; Prey-predator model; Business Fluctuations

Approximate Dynamic Programming with Parallel Stochastic Planning Operators

This thesis presents an approximate dynamic programming (ADP) technique for environment modelling agents. The agent learns a set of parallel stochastic planning operators (P-SPOs) by evaluating changes in its environment in response to actions, using an association rule mining approach. An approximate policy is then derived by iteratively improving state value aggregation estimates attached to the operators using the P-SPOs as a model in a Dyna-Q-like architecture. Reinforcement learning and dynamic programming are powerful techniques for automated agent decision making in stochastic environments. Dynamic programming is effective when there is a known environment model, while reinforcement learning is effective when a model is not available. The techniques derive a policy: a mapping from each environment state to an action which optimizes the long term reward the agent receives. The standard methods become less effective as the state space for the environment increases because they require values to be associated with each state, the storage and processing of which is exponential to the number of state variables. Resolving this “curse of dimensionality” is an important topic of research amongst all communities working on this problem. Two key methods are to: (i) derive an estimate of the value (approximate dynamic programming) using function approximation or state aggregation; or (ii) build a model of the environment from experience. This thesis presents a method of combining these approaches by exploiting structure in the state transition and value functions captured in a set of planning operators which are learnt through experience in the environment. Standard planning operators define the deterministic changes that occur in an environment in response to an action. This work presents Parallel Stochastic Planning Operators (P-SPOs), a novel form of planning operator providing a structured model of the state transition function in environments which are both non-deterministic and for which changes can occur outside the influence of actions. Next, an automated method for extracting P-SPOs from observations in an environment is explored using an adaptation of association rule mining. Finally, methods of relating the state transition structure encapsulated in the P-SPOs to state values, using the operators to store state value aggregation estimates, are evaluated. The framework described provides a method by which approximate dynamic programming can be applied by designers of AI agents and AI planning systems for which they have minimal prior knowledge. The framework and P-SPO based implementations are tested against standard techniques in two bench-mark stochastic environments: a “slippery gripper” block painting robot; and a “predator-prey” agent environment. Experimental results show that an agent using a P-SPO-based approach is able to learn an accurate model of its environment if successor state variables exhibit conditional independence, and an approximate model in the non-independent case. Results also demonstrate that the agent’s ability to generalise to previously unseen states using the model allow it to form an improved policy over an agent employing a standard Dyna-Q based technique. Finally, an approximate policy stored in state aggregation estimates attached to operators is shown to be optimal in experiments for which the P-SPO set contains sufficient information for effective aggregations to be formed

Many-agent Reinforcement Learning

Multi-agent reinforcement learning (RL) solves the problem of how each agent should behave optimally in a stochastic environment in which multiple agents are learning simultaneously. It is an interdisciplinary domain with a long history that lies in the joint area of psychology, control theory, game theory, reinforcement learning, and deep learning. Following the remarkable success of the AlphaGO series in single-agent RL, 2019 was a booming year that witnessed significant advances in multi-agent RL techniques; impressive breakthroughs have been made on developing AIs that outperform humans on many challenging tasks, especially multi-player video games. Nonetheless, one of the key challenges of multi-agent RL techniques is the scalability; it is still non-trivial to design efficient learning algorithms that can solve tasks including far more than two agents ($N \gg 2$), which I name by \emph{many-agent reinforcement learning} (MARL\footnote{I use the world of ``MARL" to denote multi-agent reinforcement learning with a particular focus on the cases of many agents; otherwise, it is denoted as ``Multi-Agent RL" by default.}) problems. In this thesis, I contribute to tackling MARL problems from four aspects. Firstly, I offer a self-contained overview of multi-agent RL techniques from a game-theoretical perspective. This overview fills the research gap that most of the existing work either fails to cover the recent advances since 2010 or does not pay adequate attention to game theory, which I believe is the cornerstone to solving many-agent learning problems. Secondly, I develop a tractable policy evaluation algorithm -- $\alpha^\alpha$-Rank -- in many-agent systems. The critical advantage of $\alpha^\alpha$-Rank is that it can compute the solution concept of $\alpha$-Rank tractably in multi-player general-sum games with no need to store the entire pay-off matrix. This is in contrast to classic solution concepts such as Nash equilibrium which is known to be $PPAD$-hard in even two-player cases. $\alpha^\alpha$-Rank allows us, for the first time, to practically conduct large-scale multi-agent evaluations. Thirdly, I introduce a scalable policy learning algorithm -- mean-field MARL -- in many-agent systems. The mean-field MARL method takes advantage of the mean-field approximation from physics, and it is the first provably convergent algorithm that tries to break the curse of dimensionality for MARL tasks. With the proposed algorithm, I report the first result of solving the Ising model and multi-agent battle games through a MARL approach. Fourthly, I investigate the many-agent learning problem in open-ended meta-games (i.e., the game of a game in the policy space). Specifically, I focus on modelling the behavioural diversity in meta-games, and developing algorithms that guarantee to enlarge diversity during training. The proposed metric based on determinantal point processes serves as the first mathematically rigorous definition for diversity. Importantly, the diversity-aware learning algorithms beat the existing state-of-the-art game solvers in terms of exploitability by a large margin. On top of the algorithmic developments, I also contribute two real-world applications of MARL techniques. Specifically, I demonstrate the great potential of applying MARL to study the emergent population dynamics in nature, and model diverse and realistic interactions in autonomous driving. Both applications embody the prospect that MARL techniques could achieve huge impacts in the real physical world, outside of purely video games

Aprendizagem a partir de múltiplas fontes em grupos heterogéneos de agentes

Tese de doutoramento. Engenharia Informática. Faculdade de Engenharia. Universidade do Porto. 200