Building sustainable resilience for food security and livelihood dynamics: The case of rural farming households in Ethiopia

Building sustainable resilience for food security and livelihood dynamics is explored using the Ethiopia Rural Household Survey panel data. Household resilience scores are derived from measures taken to protect against shocks. The impact of several demographic and socio-economic factors on resilience dynamics is then tested. The result shows that the experience of resilience in the past leads to a subsequent higher chance of continuing to be resilient (‘true state-dependence’). It also demonstrates that measures that promote asset creation, diversified enterprises and access to improved technologies are positively and significantly correlated with dynamics of building resilience for food security.JRC.D.5-Food Securit

Seed-Business Oriented Demonstration Trials: An Efficient Option to Promote Tef (Eragrostis tef ) Varieties

አህፅሮት ኢትዮጵያ ውስጥ ጤፍ (Eragrostis tef) ከ6.5 ሚሊዮን በሚበልጡ አነስተኛ አርሶ አደሮች ይመረታል፡፡ ሆኖም ግን የተሻሻሉ ቴክኖሎጂዎችና የምርጥ ዘር ተጠቃሚነት ውስን በመሆኑ የሰብሉ ምርታማነት ዝቅተኛ እንደሆነ ቀጥሏል፡፡ ስለሆነም አነስተኛ አርሶ አደሮች ጥራቱን ለጠበቀ የጤፍ አራቢ ዘር ያላቸውን ተደራሽነት ለመጨመር ዓላማ ያደረገ ጥናት በ254 መሪ አርሶ አደሮች ማሳ ላይ ተካሂዷል፡፡ በጥናቱም በቅርብ ጊዜ የተለቀቁ ሦስት አዳዲስ ዝርያዎች እና አንድ ቀደም ብሎ የተለቀቀ ዝርያ (ቦሰት) ተካተው ተገምግመዋል፡፡ ለእያንዳንዱ መሪ-አርሶ አደር የአራቱም ዝርያዎች ማለትም የኮራ፣ የተስፋ፣ የዳግም እና የቦሰት አራቢ ዘር  ተሰጥቷል፡፡ የአራቱ ዝርያዎች የዘር ምርት ተቀራራቢ (ኮራ = 1.94፣ ተስፋ = 2.31፣ ዳግም = 2.24 እና ቦሰት = 2.36 ቶን በሄክታር) ነበር፡፡ ጥናቱ በተካሄደባቸው ወረዳዎች ያለውን የግብዓት ዋጋ እና የምርት ዋጋ እሳቤ ውስጥ ሲገባ የተገኘው አማካይ ያልተጣራ ገቢ 65,355.90 ብር በሄክታር ሲሆን አማካይ የማምረቻ ወጪው ደግሞ 26,355.52 ብር በሄክታር ነበር፡፡ ከማምረቻ ወጪዎች መካከል ለጉልበት የወጣው ወጪ ትልቁን ድርሻ ሲይዝ ከጠቅላላው ወጪ 58 በመቶ ድርሻ ነበረው፡፡ በአጠቃላይ የገቢ-ወጪ ምጣኔ 1.5 በመሆኑ የተሻሻለ የጤፍ ዝርያ ቴክኖሎጂ መጠቀም በጣም ትርፋማ እንደሆነ ጥናቱ ያመልክታል፡፡ ይህም በመሆኑ አዳዲስ የሚወጡ የጤፍ ዝርያዎችን ዘር አባዝቶ ለገብያ ማቅረብን ትኩረት ያደረገ የሰርቶ ማሳያ ስራ ቢሰራ ለአርሶ አደሮች ሳቢና አዋጭ ሆኖ ተገኝትዋል፡፡   ጠቋሚ ቃላት፡ መሪ አርሶ አደሮች፤ የጤፍ ዝርያዎች፤ የምርጥ ዘር ምርት፤ የጤፍ ጭድ፤ የምርት ዋጋ       Abstract Tef (Eragrostis tef) is extensively cultivated by over 6.5 million smallholder farmers in Ethiopia. However, the productivity of the crop remains low mainly due to the limited use of improved technologies including seeds. In this study, three recently released and one old (as a check) tef varieties were evaluated on 254 lead farmers’ fields with the main aim of increasing farmers’ access to quality breed seeds.Each lead farmer was provided with breeder seeds of four improved tef varieties, namely Kora, Tesfa, Dagim, and Boset.The seed yield from the four tef varieties were comparable (Kora = 1.94, Tesfa = 2.31, Dagim =2.24 and Boset = 2.36 t ha-1). Given the input and output prices that prevail in the selected districts, the mean revenue was 65,355.90 Birr ha-1 while the mean production cost was 26,355.52 Birr ha-1. Among production costs, labor took for the lion’s share as it contributed to 58% of the total cost.   In general, with a benefit-cost ratio of 1.5, our technology is highly profitable and attractive to farmers if newly released tef varieties are disseminated in the seed-business-oriented method. &nbsp

The effect of climate-smart agriculture on soil fertility, crop yield, and soil carbon in Southern Ethiopia

It is critical to develop technologies that simultaneously improve agricultural production,offset impacts of climate change, and ensure food security in a changing climate. Within this context,considerable attention has been given to climate-smart agricultural practices (CSA). This study wasconducted to investigate the effects of integrating different CSA practices on crop production, soilfertility, and carbon sequestration after being practiced continuously for up to 10 years. The CSApractices include use of soil and water conservation (SWC) structures combined with biologicalmeasures, hedgerow planting, crop residue management, grazing management, crop rotation, andperennial crop-based agroforestry systems. The landscapes with CSA interventions were comparedto farmers’ business-as-usual practices (i.e., control). Wheat (Triticumsp.) yield was quantified from245 households.The results demonstrated that yield was 30–45% higher under CSA practices than thecontrol (p< 0.05). The total carbon stored at a soil depth of 1 m was three- to seven-fold higher underCSA landscapes than the control. CSA interventions slightly increased the soil pH and exhibited2.2–2.6 and 1.7–2.7 times more total nitrogen and plant-available phosphorus content, respectively,than the control. The time series Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) revealed higher soilmoisture content under CSA. The findings illustrated the substantial opportunity of integrating CSApractices to build climate change resilience of resource-poor farmers through improving crop yield,reducing nutrient depletion, and mitigating GHG emissions through soil carbon sequestratiom

The variable prevalence of bovine tuberculosis among dairy herds in Central Ethiopia provides opportunities for targeted intervention.

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is an important disease for dairy productivity, as well as having the potential for zoonotic transmission. Previous prevalence studies of bTB in the dairy sector in central Ethiopia have suggested high prevalence, however, they have been limited to relatively small scale surveys, raising concerns about their representativeness. Here we carried out a cross sectional one-stage cluster sampling survey taking the dairy herd as a cluster to estimate the prevalence of bTB in dairy farms in six areas of central Ethiopia. The survey, which to date is by far the largest in the area in terms of the number of dairy farms, study areas and risk factors explored, took place from March 2016 to May 2017. This study combined tuberculin skin testing and the collection of additional herd and animal level data by questionnaire to identify potential risk factors contributing to bTB transmission. We applied the single intradermal cervical comparative tuberculin (SICCT) test using >4mm cut-off for considering an individual animal as positive for bTB; at least one reactor animal was required for a herd to be considered bTB positive. Two hundred ninety-nine dairy herds in the six study areas were randomly selected, from which 5,675 cattle were tested. The overall prevalence of bTB after standardisation for herd-size in the population was 54.4% (95% CI 48.7-60%) at the herd level, and it was 24.5% (95% CI 23.3-25.8) at the individual animal level. A Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) with herd and area as random effect was used to explore risk factors association with bTB status. We found that herd size, age, bTB history at farm, and breed were significant risk factors for animals to be SICCT positive. Animals from large herds had 8.3 times the odds of being tuberculin reactor (OR: 8.3, p-value:0.008) as compared to animals from small herds. The effect of age was strongest for animals 8-10 years of age (the oldest category) having 8.9 times the odds of being tuberculin reactors (OR: 8.9, p-value:<0.001) compared to the youngest category. The other identified significant risk factors were bTB history at farm (OR: 5.2, p-value:0.003) and cattle breed (OR: 2.5, p-value: 0.032). Our study demonstrates a high prevalence of bTB in central Ethiopia but with a large variation in within-herd prevalence between herds, findings that lays an important foundation for the future development of control strategies

Factors that transformed maize productivity in Ethiopia

Published online: 26 July 2015Maize became increasingly important in the food security of Ethiopia following the major drought and famine that occurred in 1984. More than 9 million smallholder house- holds, more than for any other crop in the country, grow maize in Ethiopia at present. Ethiopia has doubled its maize produc- tivity and production in less than two decades. The yield, currently estimated at >3 metric tons/ha, is the second highest in Sub-Saharan Africa, after South Africa; yield gains for Ethiopia grew at an annual rate of 68 kg/ha between 1990 and 2013, only second to South Africa and greater than Mexico, China, or India. The maize area covered by improved varieties in Ethiopia grew from 14 % in 2004 to 40 % in 2013, and the application rate of mineral fertilizers from 16 to 34 kg/ ha during the same period. Ethiopia ’ s extension worker to farmer ratio is 1:476, compared to 1:1000 for Kenya, 1:1603 for Malawi and 1:2500 for Tanzania. Increased use of im- proved maize varieties and mineral fertilizers, coupled with increased extension services and the absence of devastating droughts are the key factors promoting the accelerated growth in maize productivity in Ethiopia. Ethiopia took a homegrown solutions approach to the research and development of its maize and other commodities. The lesson from Ethiopia ’ s experience with maize is that sustained investment in agricul- tural research and development and policy support by the national government are crucial for continued growth of agricultur

Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017

A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Modern contraceptive utilization and its associated factors in East Africa: Findings from multi-country demographic and health surveys.

BackgroundThe use of modern contraceptives has been low in most Sub-Saharan African countries despite high population growth and a sluggish economy. This study aimed to identify the prevalence and determinants of modern contraceptive use among married reproductive-age women in East Africa.MethodsFor this study, the Demographic and health survey (DHS) data from nine countries in East Africa were analyzed, yielding a weighted sample of 32,925 married women. A multilevel mixed-effect logistic regression model was used to identify characteristics associated with the utilization of modern contraceptives at a p-value less than 0.05. For model comparison, we used the Akaike and Bayesian Information Criteria (AIC and BIC). For assessing variation (random effects), we used community-level variance with standard deviation and intra-cluster correlation coefficient (ICC).ResultsThe overall prevalence of modern contraceptive use was 45.68%, 95% CI (45.15, 46.21). Women's age, maternal education level, husband education level, media exposure, wealth status, occupation, religion, the total number of children ever born, distance to health facilities, history of termination of pregnancy, couple's desire for children, women's participation in decision making, living country and place of residence were significantly associated with modern contraceptive use in Eastern Africa.ConclusionsConferring to this study, utilization of modern contraceptives is low in East Africa. Interventions to improve the use of modern contraceptives should encompass disseminating awareness through mass media, enrolment of males in family planning, giving maternal education, building health facilities in remote areas, and encouraging family planning programs in rural areas

Welfare Impacts of Rising Food Prices in Rural Ethiopia: a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System Approach

Ethiopia has experienced high food prices, especially since 2005. This paper examines the welfare impacts of rising food prices in rural Ethiopia using Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) approach controlled for expenditure endogeniety and zero consumption expenditure. The elasticity coefficients from QUAIDS are used to estimate Compensated Variations (CV), which explicitly accounts for profit function and substitution effects. The study uses Ethiopia Rural Household Survey (ERHS) panel data, encompassing both low and high price periods. Prices of all food and agricultural products increased during the entire survey period of 1994 to 2009 but the increases were much higher in recent years, 2004 – 2009, compared to the earlier period of 1994 - 2004. The results have shown that the price hikes in recent years increased welfare gain of rural households by about 10.5% on aggregate, as compared to less than 1% for the reference period (1994 - 2004). The welfare gains further improved to 18% for the high price period and 7.2% for the low price period with substitution effects. It could be argued that the welfare gains at aggregate level is not equally distributed among rural households as 37 to 46% of the sample households were net-cereal buyers (major staple crops) during the survey period. However, the analysis revealed that high food and agricultural prices benefit not only net-cereal sellers but also autarkic and net-cereal buying families. Autarkic households and net-cereal buyers apparently seem to have benefited from high prices of commodities such as pluses, fruits & vegetables, live animals and animal products. They also appear to have gained from increased off-farm income as average income from wage and transfer has indeed increased in 2009. Only very poor families with limited farm and non-farm income need to be supported with safety net programs (both input and consumption support). In the long-run, high agricultural prices would encourage net-sellers to expand production, leading to lower food prices for net-buyers. More importantly, many current net buyers could become net-sellers if grain prices are stable and remunerative for producers