The modifiability of rule-based expert systems

This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University.This thesis examines the claim that rule representations of knowledge are conveniently modified. The thesis falls into two parts and in the first, a precise notion of a convenient modification, called an extension, is developed and it is shown that extensible knowledge-bases are very convenient to modify and develop. We show that- rule representations of knowledge are extensible only if they incorporate a suitable organisation of knowledge. Furthermore, we show that non-rule representations with a suitable organisation of knowledge are also extensible. We therefore conclude that rule representations of knowledge are no more or less extensible than non-rule representations. In the second part, we consider the more pragmatic aspects of knowledge-base modifiability. In each of two detailed case studies, we compare the modifiability of a rule-based expert system with its "second generation” counterpart which incorporates non-rule representations of knowledge. We conclude that in practice the modifiability of extensible knowledge-bases can be compromised if the organisation of knowledge is represented obscurely. Above all, the thesis emphasizes the importance of the organisation of knowledge in an expert system

A synthesis of logic and bio-inspired techniques in the design of dependable systems

Much of the development of model-based design and dependability analysis in the design of dependable systems, including software intensive systems, can be attributed to the application of advances in formal logic and its application to fault forecasting and verification of systems. In parallel, work on bio-inspired technologies has shown potential for the evolutionary design of engineering systems via automated exploration of potentially large design spaces. We have not yet seen the emergence of a design paradigm that effectively combines these two techniques, schematically founded on the two pillars of formal logic and biology, from the early stages of, and throughout, the design lifecycle. Such a design paradigm would apply these techniques synergistically and systematically to enable optimal refinement of new designs which can be driven effectively by dependability requirements. The paper sketches such a model-centric paradigm for the design of dependable systems, presented in the scope of the HiP-HOPS tool and technique, that brings these technologies together to realise their combined potential benefits. The paper begins by identifying current challenges in model-based safety assessment and then overviews the use of meta-heuristics at various stages of the design lifecycle covering topics that span from allocation of dependability requirements, through dependability analysis, to multi-objective optimisation of system architectures and maintenance schedules

An empirical investigation into branch coverage for C programs using CUTE and AUSTIN

Automated test data generation has remained a topic of considerable interest for several decades because it lies at the heart of attempts to automate the process of Software Testing. This paper reports the results of an empirical study using the dynamic symbolic-execution tool. CUTE, and a search based tool, AUSTIN on five non-trivial open source applications. The aim is to provide practitioners with an assessment of what can be achieved by existing techniques with little or no specialist knowledge and to provide researchers with baseline data against which to measure subsequent work. To achieve this, each tool is applied 'as is', with neither additional tuning nor supporting harnesses and with no adjustments applied to the subject programs under test. The mere fact that these tools can be applied 'out of the box' in this manner reflects the growing maturity of Automated test data generation. However, as might be expected, the study reveals opportunities for improvement and suggests ways to hybridize these two approaches that have hitherto been developed entirely independently. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved

Mutation-aware fault prediction

We introduce mutation-aware fault prediction, which leverages additional guidance from metrics constructed in terms of mutants and the test cases that cover and detect them. We report the results of 12 sets of experiments, applying 4 di↵erent predictive modelling techniques to 3 large real world systems (both open and closed source). The results show that our proposal can significantly (p 0.05) improve fault prediction performance. Moreover, mutation based metrics lie in the top 5% most frequently relied upon fault predictors in 10 of the 12 sets of experiments, and provide the majority of the top ten fault predictors in 9 of the 12 sets of experiments.http://www0.cs.ucl.ac.uk/staff/F.Sarro/resource/papers/ISSTA2016-Bowesetal.pd

Computational classifiers for predicting the short-term course of Multiple sclerosis

The aim of this study was to assess the diagnostic accuracy (sensitivity and specificity) of clinical, imaging and motor evoked potentials (MEP) for predicting the short-term prognosis of multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: We obtained clinical data, MRI and MEP from a prospective cohort of 51 patients and 20 matched controls followed for two years. Clinical end-points recorded were: 1) expanded disability status scale (EDSS), 2) disability progression, and 3) new relapses. We constructed computational classifiers (Bayesian, random decision-trees, simple logistic-linear regression-and neural networks) and calculated their accuracy by means of a 10-fold cross-validation method. We also validated our findings with a second cohort of 96 MS patients from a second center. RESULTS: We found that disability at baseline, grey matter volume and MEP were the variables that better correlated with clinical end-points, although their diagnostic accuracy was low. However, classifiers combining the most informative variables, namely baseline disability (EDSS), MRI lesion load and central motor conduction time (CMCT), were much more accurate in predicting future disability. Using the most informative variables (especially EDSS and CMCT) we developed a neural network (NNet) that attained a good performance for predicting the EDSS change. The predictive ability of the neural network was validated in an independent cohort obtaining similar accuracy (80%) for predicting the change in the EDSS two years later. CONCLUSIONS: The usefulness of clinical variables for predicting the course of MS on an individual basis is limited, despite being associated with the disease course. By training a NNet with the most informative variables we achieved a good accuracy for predicting short-term disability

A synthesis of logic and bio-inspired techniques in the design of dependable systems

YesMuch of the development of model-based design and dependability analysis in the design of dependable systems, including software intensive systems, can be attributed to the application of advances in formal logic and its application to fault forecasting and verification of systems. In parallel, work on bio-inspired technologies has shown potential for the evolutionary design of engineering systems via automated exploration of potentially large design spaces. We have not yet seen the emergence of a design paradigm that effectively combines these two techniques, schematically founded on the two pillars of formal logic and biology, from the early stages of, and throughout, the design lifecycle. Such a design paradigm would apply these techniques synergistically and systematically to enable optimal refinement of new designs which can be driven effectively by dependability requirements. The paper sketches such a model-centric paradigm for the design of dependable systems, presented in the scope of the HiP-HOPS tool and technique, that brings these technologies together to realise their combined potential benefits. The paper begins by identifying current challenges in model-based safety assessment and then overviews the use of meta-heuristics at various stages of the design lifecycle covering topics that span from allocation of dependability requirements, through dependability analysis, to multi-objective optimisation of system architectures and maintenance schedules