Information and Financial Crisis Policymaking

The degree to which governments intervene to contain financial crises varies considerably. We aim to understand why policymakers choose the level of intervention they do to contain financial shocks. In particular, we want to understand why policymakers may choose policies that create outcomes they do not want. We focus on a defining feature of financial crisis policymaking that has been largely unaddressed in the literature on policy responses to crises: policymakers lack good information about the health of their banking systems. So, they rely on their bureaucrats and other actors for necessary information. However, information providers may have different policy preferences. To understand the interactions between these actors and the implications for policy choice, we advance a signalling game of financial crisis containment. We use comparative statics and a case study of the recent Irish crisis to demonstrate how information asymmetries can have a significant impact on bailout choices

Ethics review as a component of institutional approval for a multicentre continuous quality improvement project: the investigator's perspective

BACKGROUND: For ethical approval of a multicentre study in Canada, investigators must apply separately to individual Research Ethics Boards (REBs). In principle, the protection of human research subjects is of utmost importance. However, in practice, the process of multicentre ethics review can be time consuming and costly, requiring duplication of effort for researchers and REBs. We used our experience with ethical review of The Canadian Perinatal Network (CPN), to gain insight into the Canadian system. METHODS: The applications forms of 16 different REBs were abstracted for a list of standardized items. The application process across sites was compared. Correspondence between the REB and the investigators was documented in order to construct a timeline to approval, identify the specific issues raised by each board, and describe how they were resolved. RESULTS: Each REB had a different application form. Most (n = 9) had a two or three step application process. Overall, it took a median of 31 days (range 2-174 days) to receive an initial response from the REB. Approval took a median of 42 days (range 4-443 days). Privacy and consent were the two major issues raised. Several additional minor or administrative issues were raised which delayed approval. CONCLUSIONS: For CPN, the Canadian REB process of ethical review proved challenging. REBs acted independently and without unified application forms or submission procedures. We call for a critical examination of the ethical, privacy and institutional review processes in Canada, to determine the best way to undertake multicentre review

Prospects for observing and localizing gravitational-wave transients with Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo and KAGRA

We present possible observing scenarios for the Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo and KAGRA gravitational-wave detectors over the next decade, with the intention of providing information to the astronomy community to facilitate planning for multi-messenger astronomy with gravitational waves. We estimate the sensitivity of the network to transient gravitational-wave signals, and study the capability of the network to determine the sky location of the source. We report our findings for gravitational-wave transients, with particular focus on gravitational-wave signals from the inspiral of binary neutron star systems, which are the most promising targets for multi-messenger astronomy. The ability to localize the sources of the detected signals depends on the geographical distribution of the detectors and their relative sensitivity, and 90% credible regions can be as large as thousands of square degrees when only two sensitive detectors are operational. Determining the sky position of a significant fraction of detected signals to areas of 5– 20 deg2 requires at least three detectors of sensitivity within a factor of ∼2 of each other and with a broad frequency bandwidth. When all detectors, including KAGRA and the third LIGO detector in India, reach design sensitivity, a significant fraction of gravitational-wave signals will be localized to a few square degrees by gravitational-wave observations alone

Directional Limits on Persistent Gravitational Waves from Advanced LIGO’s First Observing Run

We employ gravitational-wave radiometry to map the stochastic gravitational wave background expected from a variety of contributing mechanisms and test the assumption of isotropy using data from the Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory’s (aLIGO) first observing run. We also search for persistent gravitational waves from point sources with only minimal assumptions over the 20–1726 Hz frequency band. Finding no evidence of gravitational waves from either point sources or a stochastic background, we set limits at 90% confidence. For broadband point sources, we report upper limits on the gravitational wave energy flux per unit frequency in the range Fα;ΘðfÞ < ð0.1–56Þ × 10−8 erg cm−2 s−1 Hz−1ðf=25 HzÞα−1 depending on the sky location Θ and the spectral power index α. For extended sources, we report upper limits on the fractional gravitational wave energy density required to close the Universe of Ωðf; ΘÞ < ð0.39–7.6Þ × 10−8 sr−1ðf=25 HzÞα depending on Θ and α. Directed searches for narrowband gravitational waves from astrophysically interesting objects (Scorpius X-1, Supernova 1987 A, and the Galactic Center) yield median frequency-dependent limits on strain amplitude of h0 < ð6.7; 5.5; and 7.0Þ × 10−25, respectively, at the most sensitive detector frequencies between 130–175 Hz. This represents a mean improvement of a factor of 2 across the band compared to previous searches of this kind for these sky locations, considering the different quantities of strain constrained in each case

A community-based lifestyle and weight loss intervention promoting a Mediterranean-style diet pattern evaluated in the stroke belt of North Carolina: the Heart Healthy Lenoir Project

Abstract Background Because residents of the southeastern United States experience disproportionally high rates of cardiovascular disease (CVD), it is important to develop effective lifestyle interventions for this population. Methods The primary objective was to develop and evaluate a dietary, physical activity (PA) and weight loss intervention for residents of the southeastern US. The intervention, given in eastern North Carolina, was evaluated in a 2 year prospective cohort study with an embedded randomized controlled trial (RCT) of a weight loss maintenance intervention. The intervention included: Phase I (months 1–6), individually-tailored intervention promoting a Mediterranean-style dietary pattern and increased walking; Phase II (months 7–12), option of a 16-week weight loss intervention for those with BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 offered in 2 formats (16 weekly group sessions or 5 group sessions and 10 phone calls) or a lifestyle maintenance intervention; and Phase III (months 13–24), weight loss maintenance RCT for those losing ≥ 8 lb with all other participants receiving a lifestyle maintenance intervention. Change in diet and PA behaviors, CVD risk factors, and weight were assessed at 6, 12, and 24 month follow-up. Results Baseline characteristics (N = 339) were: 260 (77 %) females, 219 (65 %) African Americans, mean age 56 years, and mean body mass index 36 kg/m2. In Phase I, among 251 (74 %) that returned for 6 month follow-up, there were substantial improvements in diet score (4.3 units [95 % CI 3.7 to 5.0]), walking (64 min/week [19 to 109]), and systolic blood pressure (−6.4 mmHg [−8.7 to −4.1]) that were generally maintained through 24 month follow-up. In Phase II, 138 (57 group only, 81 group/phone) chose the weight loss intervention and at 12 months, weight change was: −3.1 kg (−4.9 to −1.3) for group (N = 50) and −2.1 kg (−3.2 to −1.0) for group/phone combination (N = 75). In Phase III, 27 participants took part in the RCT. At 24 months, weight loss was −2.1 kg (−4.3 to 0.0) for group (N = 51) and −1.1 kg (−2.7 to 0.4) for combination (N = 72). Outcomes for African American and whites were similar. Conclusions The intervention yielded substantial improvement in diet, PA, and blood pressure, but weight loss was modest. Trial registration clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT0143348

Patterns of perceived barriers to medical care in older adults: a latent class analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>This study examined multiple dimensions of healthcare access in order to develop a typology of perceived barriers to healthcare access in community-dwelling elderly. Secondary aims were to define distinct classes of older adults with similar perceived healthcare access barriers and to examine predictors of class membership to identify risk factors for poor healthcare access.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A sample of 5,465 community-dwelling elderly was drawn from the 2004 wave of the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study. Perceived barriers to healthcare access were measured using items from the Group Health Association of America Consumer Satisfaction Survey. We used latent class analysis to assess the constellation of items measuring perceived barriers in access and multinomial logistic regression to estimate how risk factors affected the probability of membership in the latent barrier classes.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Latent class analysis identified four classes of older adults. Class 1 (75% of sample) consisted of individuals with an overall low level of risk for perceived access problems (No Barriers). Class 2 (5%) perceived problems with the availability/accessibility of healthcare providers such as specialists or mental health providers (Availability/Accessibility Barriers). Class 3 (18%) perceived problems with how well their providers' operations arise organized to accommodate their needs and preferences (Accommodation Barriers). Class 4 (2%) perceived problems with all dimension of access (Severe Barriers). Results also revealed that healthcare affordability is a problem shared by members of all three barrier groups, suggesting that older adults with perceived barriers tend to face multiple, co-occurring problems. Compared to those classified into the No Barriers group, those in the Severe Barrier class were more likely to live in a rural county, have no health insurance, have depressive symptomatology, and speech limitations. Those classified into the Availability/Accessibility Barriers group were more likely to live in rural and micropolitan counties, have depressive symptomatology, more chronic conditions, and hearing limitations. Those in the Accommodation group were more likely to have depressive symptomatology and cognitive limitations.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The current study identified a typology of perceived barriers in healthcare access in older adults. The identified risk factors for membership in perceived barrier classes could potentially assist healthcare organizations and providers with targeting polices and interventions designed to improve access in their most vulnerable older adult populations, particularly those in rural areas, with functional disabilities, or in poor mental health.</p

First measurement of the Hubble Constant from a Dark Standard Siren using the Dark Energy Survey Galaxies and the LIGO/Virgo Binary–Black-hole Merger GW170814

International audienceWe present a multi-messenger measurement of the Hubble constant H 0 using the binary–black-hole merger GW170814 as a standard siren, combined with a photometric redshift catalog from the Dark Energy Survey (DES). The luminosity distance is obtained from the gravitational wave signal detected by the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO)/Virgo Collaboration (LVC) on 2017 August 14, and the redshift information is provided by the DES Year 3 data. Black hole mergers such as GW170814 are expected to lack bright electromagnetic emission to uniquely identify their host galaxies and build an object-by-object Hubble diagram. However, they are suitable for a statistical measurement, provided that a galaxy catalog of adequate depth and redshift completion is available. Here we present the first Hubble parameter measurement using a black hole merger. Our analysis results in , which is consistent with both SN Ia and cosmic microwave background measurements of the Hubble constant. The quoted 68% credible region comprises 60% of the uniform prior range [20, 140] km s−1 Mpc−1, and it depends on the assumed prior range. If we take a broader prior of [10, 220] km s−1 Mpc−1, we find (57% of the prior range). Although a weak constraint on the Hubble constant from a single event is expected using the dark siren method, a multifold increase in the LVC event rate is anticipated in the coming years and combinations of many sirens will lead to improved constraints on H 0

Properties of the Binary Neutron Star Merger GW170817

On August 17, 2017, the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo gravitational-wave detectors observed a low-mass compact binary inspiral. The initial sky localization of the source of the gravitational-wave signal, GW170817, allowed electromagnetic observatories to identify NGC 4993 as the host galaxy. In this work, we improve initial estimates of the binary's properties, including component masses, spins, and tidal parameters, using the known source location, improved modeling, and recalibrated Virgo data. We extend the range of gravitational-wave frequencies considered down to 23 Hz, compared to 30 Hz in the initial analysis. We also compare results inferred using several signal models, which are more accurate and incorporate additional physical effects as compared to the initial analysis. We improve the localization of the gravitational-wave source to a 90% credible region of 16  deg2. We find tighter constraints on the masses, spins, and tidal parameters, and continue to find no evidence for nonzero component spins. The component masses are inferred to lie between 1.00 and 1.89  M⊙ when allowing for large component spins, and to lie between 1.16 and 1.60  M⊙ (with a total mass 2.73−0.01+0.04  M⊙) when the spins are restricted to be within the range observed in Galactic binary neutron stars. Using a precessing model and allowing for large component spins, we constrain the dimensionless spins of the components to be less than 0.50 for the primary and 0.61 for the secondary. Under minimal assumptions about the nature of the compact objects, our constraints for the tidal deformability parameter Λ are (0,630) when we allow for large component spins, and 300−230+420 (using a 90% highest posterior density interval) when restricting the magnitude of the component spins, ruling out several equation-of-state models at the 90% credible level. Finally, with LIGO and GEO600 data, we use a Bayesian analysis to place upper limits on the amplitude and spectral energy density of a possible postmerger signal

GWTC-1: A Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog of Compact Binary Mergers Observed by LIGO and Virgo during the First and Second Observing Runs

We present the results from three gravitational-wave searches for coalescing compact binaries with component masses above 1  M⊙ during the first and second observing runs of the advanced gravitational-wave detector network. During the first observing run (O1), from September 12, 2015 to January 19, 2016, gravitational waves from three binary black hole mergers were detected. The second observing run (O2), which ran from November 30, 2016 to August 25, 2017, saw the first detection of gravitational waves from a binary neutron star inspiral, in addition to the observation of gravitational waves from a total of seven binary black hole mergers, four of which we report here for the first time: GW170729, GW170809, GW170818, and GW170823. For all significant gravitational-wave events, we provide estimates of the source properties. The detected binary black holes have total masses between 18.6−0.7+3.2  M⊙ and 84.4−11.1+15.8  M⊙ and range in distance between 320−110+120 and 2840−1360+1400  Mpc. No neutron star-black hole mergers were detected. In addition to highly significant gravitational-wave events, we also provide a list of marginal event candidates with an estimated false-alarm rate less than 1 per 30 days. From these results over the first two observing runs, which include approximately one gravitational-wave detection per 15 days of data searched, we infer merger rates at the 90% confidence intervals of 110−3840  Gpc−3 y−1 for binary neutron stars and 9.7−101  Gpc−3 y−1 for binary black holes assuming fixed population distributions and determine a neutron star-black hole merger rate 90% upper limit of 610  Gpc−3 y−1

Search for eccentric binary black hole mergers with Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo during their first and second observing runs

When formed through dynamical interactions, stellar-mass binary black holes (BBHs) may retain eccentric orbits (e > 0.1 at 10 Hz) detectable by ground-based gravitational-wave detectors. Eccentricity can therefore be used to differentiate dynamically formed binaries from isolated BBH mergers. Current template-based gravitational-wave searches do not use waveform models associated with eccentric orbits, rendering the search less efficient for eccentric binary systems. Here we present the results of a search for BBH mergers that inspiral in eccentric orbits using data from the first and second observing runs (O1 and O2) of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo. We carried out the search with the coherent WaveBurst algorithm, which uses minimal assumptions on the signal morphology and does not rely on binary waveform templates. We show that it is sensitive to binary mergers with a detection range that is weakly dependent on eccentricity for all bound systems. Our search did not identify any new binary merger candidates. We interpret these results in light of eccentric binary formation models. We rule out formation channels with rates greater than about 100 Gpc−3 yr−1 for e > 0.1, assuming a black hole mass spectrum with a power-law index less than about 2