The effect of early childhood stunting on children’s cognitive achievements: Evidence from young lives Ethiopia

Background: There is little empirical evidence on the effect of childhood malnutrition on children’s cognitive achievements in low income countries like Ethiopia. A longitudinal data is thus vital to understand the factors that influence cognitive development of children over time, particularly how early childhood stunting affects cognitive achievement of children up to the age of 8 years.Objective: To examine the effect of early childhood stunting on cognitive achievements of children using longitudinal data that incorporate anthropometric measurements and results of cognitive achievement tests such as Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test and Cognitive Development Assessment quantitative tests.Method: Defining stunted children as those having a standardized height for age z-score less than -2; we used a Propensity Score Matching (PSM) to examine the effect of early childhood stunting on measures of cognitive performance of children. The balance of the propensity score matching techniques was checked and found to be satisfied (P<0.01)Results: Early childhood stunting is significantly negatively associated with cognitive performance of children. Controlled for confounding variables such as length of breastfeeding, relative size of the child at birth, health problems of early childhood such as acute respiratory illness and malaria, baseline household wealth, child gender, household size and parental education, estimates from PSM show that stunted children scored 16.1% less in the Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test and 48.8% less in the Quantitative Assessment test at the age of eight, both statistically significant at P<0.01.Conclusions: It is important to realize the importance of early investment in terms of child health and nutrition until five years for the cognitive performance of children. As household wealth and parental education are particularly found to play an important role in children’s nutritional achievements, policy measures that are directed in improving household’s livelihood may have a spill-over impact in improving child nutritional status, and consequently cognitive development and schooling. [Ethiop. J. Health Dev. 2017;31(2):75-84]Keywords: Early childhood, stunting, cognitive achievements, Ethiopi

Is Child Work Detrimental to the Educational Achievement of Children? Results from Young Lives Study in Ethiopia

The objective of this study was to explore the effect of child work on educational achievement as measured by the Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test (PPVT). Identifying the causal effects of child work on education is made difficult because the choice of work and/or schooling is made simultaneously and may be determined by the same potentially unobserved factors. Therefore, both Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and Instrumental Variable (IV) estimation methods were used to identify the effect of child work on educational achievement. We used dummy variables for drought, crop failure and pests and diseases, for increases in the prices of food, and for urban locality as instruments which are highly, though not directly, correlated with achievement in education. The results obtained showed that child work had a negative effect on child achievement in education. Numerically, an increase in the number of hours worked per day by one resulted in a reduction in the PPVT score of a child by 6.2 percent. Therefore, it is important to design mechanisms that enable households to withstand income shocks without resorting to child work. The Government of Ethiopia might need to consider implementing a programme that provides financial incentives to households to send their children to school regularly, thus potentially increasing their educational achievement.Key words: child work, educational achievement, PPVT, Young Lives, Ethiopia; Child labor- Ethiopia; Education- EthiopiaJEL Codes: J22, D63, I38 & C3

Quantification of Methane Emissions from Indoor-Fed Fogera Dairy Cows Using Laser Methane Detector

Portable laser methane detectors (LMDs) may be an economical means of estimating CH4 emissions from ruminants. Here, we validated an LMD-based approach and then used that approach to evaluate CH4 emissions from indigenous dairy cows in a dryland area of Ethiopia. First, we validated our LMD-based approach in Simmental crossbred beef cattle (n = 2) housed in respiration chambers and fed either a high- or low-concentrate diet. We found that the exhaled air CH4 concentrations measured by LMD were linearly correlated with the CH4 emissions determined by infrared-absorption-based gas analyzer (r2 = 0.55). On the basis of these findings, we constructed an estimation equation to determine CH4 emissions (y, mg min−1) from LMD CH4 concentrations (x, ppm m) as y = 0.4259x + 38.61. Next, we used our validated LMD approach to examine CH4 emissions in Fogera dairy cows grazed for 8 h d−1 (GG, n = 4), fed indoors on natural-grassland hay (CG1, n = 4), or fed indoors on Napier-grass (Pennisetum purpureum) hay (CG2, n = 4). All the cows were supplemented with concentrate feed. Daily CH4 emissions did not differ among the three groups; however, a numerically greater milk yield was obtained from the CG2 cows than from the GG cows, suggesting that Napier-grass hay might be better than natural-grassland hay for indoor feeding. The CG1 cows had higher CH4 emissions per feed intake than the other groups, without significant increases in milk yield and body-weight gain, suggesting that natural-grassland hay cannot be recommended for indoor-fed cows. These findings demonstrate the potential of using LMDs to rapidly and economically evaluate feeding regimens for dairy cows in areas under financial constraint, while taking CH4 emissions into consideration

Lung Abscess as a Complication of Appendicitis

Molla Asnake,1 Suleman Hassen,2 Anteneh Messele,1 Yosef Habtemariam,1 Sisay Mengistu,2 Bizuayehu Tassew,2 Tsegaw Worku,1 Woineab Tadeg1 1Department of Medicine, School of Medicine, College of Health Sciences, Mizan-Tepi University, Mizan Aman, Ethiopia; 2Department of Surgery, College of Health Sciences, Mizan-Tepi University, Mizan Aman, EthiopiaCorrespondence: Molla Asnake, Email [email protected]: Appendicitis is an inflammation of the vermiform appendix (located near the base of the cecum). A lung abscess is a cavitary lesion containing necrotic lung tissue or an infected fluid component. It mainly occurs as a result of lung parenchymal disease. The patient was a 25-year-old male who first presented with a 1-week history of productive cough and chest pain associated with low-grade fever. He was diagnosed with a lung abscess as a complication of perforated retro cecal appendicitis. We report this in consideration of reducing the challenge of delay in diagnosis of this rare complication, and to avoid mistreatment specifically when the patient’s chest x-ray resembles empyema. Additionally, we encourage doing further studies on this topic.Keywords: lung abscess, sepsis, perforated appendiciti

Factors influencing the ownership and utilization of long-lasting insecticidal nets for malaria prevention in Ethiopia

Background Utilization of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) is regarded as key malaria prevention and control strategy. However, studies have reported a large gap in terms of both ownership and utilization particularly in the sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). With continual efforts to improve the use of LLIN and to progress malaria elimination, examining the factors influencing the ownership and usage of LLIN is of high importance. Therefore, the current study was conducted to examine the level of ownership and use of LLIN along with identification of associated factors at household level. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted in Mirab Abaya District, Southern Ethiopia in June and July 2014. A total of 540 households, with an estimated 2690 members, were selected in four kebeles of the district known to have high incidence of malaria. Trained data collectors interviewed household heads to collect information on the knowledge, ownership and utilization of LLINs, which was complemented by direct observation on the conditions and use of the nets through house-to-house visit. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to determine factors associated to LLIN use. Results Of 540 households intended to be included in the survey, 507 responded to the study (94.24% response rate), covering the homes of 2759 people. More than 58% of the households had family size >5 (the regional average), and 60.2% of them had at least one child below the age of 5 years. The ownership of at least one LLIN among households surveyed was 89.9%, and using at least one LLIN during the night prior to the survey among net owners was 85.1% (n = 456). Only 36.7% (186) mentioned at least as the mean of correct scores of all participants for 14 possible malaria symptoms and 32.7% (166) knew at least as the mean of correct scores of all participants for possible preventive methods. Over 30% of nets owned by the households were out of use. After controlling for confounding factors, having two or more sleeping places (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 2.58, 95% CI 1.17, 5.73), knowledge that LLIN prevents malaria (aOR = 2.51, 95% CI 1.17, 5.37), the presence of hanging bed nets (aOR = 19.24, 95% CI 9.24, 40.07) and walls of the house plastered or painted >12 months ago (aOR = 0.09, 95% CI 0.01, 0.71) were important predictors of LLIN utilization. Conclusions This study found a higher proportion of LLIN ownership and utilization by households than had previously been found in similar studies in Ethiopia, and in many studies in SSA. However, poor knowledge of the transmission mechanisms and the symptoms of malaria, and vector control measures to prevent malaria were evident. Moderate proportions of nets were found to be out of use or in poor repair. Efforts should be in place to maintain the current rate of utilization of LLIN in the district and improve on the identified gaps in order to support the elimination of malaria

Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17 : analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea. Methods We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates. Findings The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1–65·8), 17·4% (7·7–28·4), and 59·5% (34·2–86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage. Interpretation By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2\ub75th percentile and 100 as the 97\ub75th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59\ub74 (IQR 35\ub74–67\ub73), ranging from a low of 11\ub76 (95% uncertainty interval 9\ub76–14\ub70) to a high of 84\ub79 (83\ub71–86\ub77). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of 'leaving no one behind', it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. METHODS: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation