A Computer Simulation of Progesterone and Cox2 Inhibitor Treatment for Preterm Labor

Background: Sufficient information from in vitro and in vivo studies has become available to permit computer modeling of the processes that occur in the myometrium during labor. This development allows the in silico investigation of pathological mechanisms and the trialing of potential treatments. Methods/Results: Based on the human literature, we developed a computer model of the immune-endocrine environment of the myometrial cell. The interactions between molecules are represented by differential equations. The model is designed to simulate the estrogen and progesterone receptor changes during pregnancy and particularly the changes in the progesterone receptor (PR) isoforms A and B that are thought to mediate functional progesterone withdrawal in the human at labor. Parturition is represented by an increase in the PRA to PRB ratio to levels seen in women in labor. Infection is shown by inducing inflammation in the system by increasing phospho-IkB kinase concentration (IKK) levels; which lead to increased NF-kappa B activation, causing an increase in the PRA/PRB ratio. We examined the effects of progesterone or cyclooxygenase 2 (Cox2) inhibitor treatments on the PRA/PRB ratio in silico. The model predicted that high doses of progesterone and Cox2 inhibition would be effective in preventing an NF-kappa B-induced PRA/PRB ratio increase to the levels found during labor. Conclusions: Our data illustrate the use of dynamic biological computer simulations to test the effectiveness of therapeutic interventions. This may allow the early rejection of ineffective therapies prior to expensive field trials

Identification of myeloproliferative neoplasm drug agents via predictive simulation modeling: assessing responsiveness with micro-environment derived cytokines

Previous studies have shown that the bone marrow micro-environment supports the myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN) phenotype including via the production of cytokines that can induce resistance to frontline MPN therapies. However, the mechanisms by which this occurs are poorly understood. Moreover, the ability to rapidly identify drug agents that can act as adjuvants to existing MPN frontline therapies is virtually non-existent. Here, using a novel predictive simulation approach, we sought to determine the effect of various drug agents on MPN cell lines, both with and without the micro-environment derived inflammatory cytokines. We first created individual simulation models for two representative MPN cell lines; HEL and SET-2, based on their genomic mutation and copy number variation (CNV) data. Running computational simulations on these virtual cell line models, we identified a synergistic effect of two drug agents on cell proliferation and viability; namely, the Jak2 kinase inhibitor, G6, and the Bcl-2 inhibitor, ABT737. IL-6 did not show any impact on the cells due to the predicted lack of IL-6 signaling within these cells. Interestingly, TNFα increased the sensitivity of the single drug agents and their use in combination while IFNγ decreased the sensitivity. In summary, this study predictively identified two drug agents that reduce MPN cell viability via independent mechanisms that was prospectively validated. Moreover, their efficacy is either potentiated or inhibited, by some of the micro-environment derived cytokines. Lastly, this study has validated the use of this simulation based technology to prospectively determine such responses

Plumbagin inhibits invasion and migration of breast and gastric cancer cells by downregulating the expression of chemokine receptor CXCR4

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Increasing evidence indicates that the interaction between the CXC chemokine receptor-4 (CXCR4) and its ligand CXCL12 is critical in the process of metastasis that accounts for more than 90% of cancer-related deaths. Thus, novel agents that can downregulate the CXCR4/CXCL12 axis have therapeutic potential in inhibiting cancer metastasis.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In this report, we investigated the potential of an agent, plumbagin (5-hydroxy-2-methyl-1, 4-naphthoquinone), for its ability to modulate CXCR4 expression and function in various tumor cells using Western blot analysis, DNA binding assay, transient transfection, real time PCR analysis, chromatin immunoprecipitation, and cellular migration and invasion assays.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We found that plumbagin downregulated the expression of CXCR4 in breast cancer cells irrespective of their HER2 status. The decrease in CXCR4 expression induced by plumbagin was not cell type-specific as the inhibition also occurred in gastric, lung, renal, oral, and hepatocellular tumor cell lines. Neither proteasome inhibition nor lysosomal stabilization had any effect on plumbagin-induced decrease in CXCR4 expression. Detailed study of the underlying molecular mechanism(s) revealed that the regulation of the downregulation of CXCR4 was at the transcriptional level, as indicated by downregulation of mRNA expression, inhibition of NF-κB activation, and suppression of chromatin immunoprecipitation activity. In addition, using a virtual, predictive, functional proteomics-based tumor pathway platform, we tested the hypothesis that NF-κB inhibition by plumbagin causes the decrease in CXCR4 and other metastatic genes. Suppression of CXCR4 expression by plumbagin was found to correlate with the inhibition of CXCL12-induced migration and invasion of both breast and gastric cancer cells.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Overall, our results indicate, for the first time, that plumbagin is a novel blocker of CXCR4 expression and thus has the potential to suppress metastasis of cancer.</p

Amplification and demultiplexing in insulin-regulated Akt protein kinase pathway in adipocytes.

Akt plays a major role in insulin regulation of metabolism in muscle, fat, and liver. Here, we show that in 3T3-L1 adipocytes, Akt operates optimally over a limited dynamic range. This indicates that Akt is a highly sensitive amplification step in the pathway. With robust insulin stimulation, substantial changes in Akt phosphorylation using either pharmacologic or genetic manipulations had relatively little effect on Akt activity. By integrating these data we observed that half-maximal Akt activity was achieved at a threshold level of Akt phosphorylation corresponding to 5-22% of its full dynamic range. This behavior was also associated with lack of concordance or demultiplexing in the behavior of downstream components. Most notably, FoxO1 phosphorylation was more sensitive to insulin and did not exhibit a change in its rate of phosphorylation between 1 and 100 nm insulin compared with other substrates (AS160, TSC2, GSK3). Similar differences were observed between various insulin-regulated pathways such as GLUT4 translocation and protein synthesis. These data indicate that Akt itself is a major amplification switch in the insulin signaling pathway and that features of the pathway enable the insulin signal to be split or demultiplexed into discrete outputs. This has important implications for the role of this pathway in disease

Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND: Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. METHODS: We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. FINDINGS: Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, an

Healthcare Access and Quality Index based on mortality from causes amenable to personal health care in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015 : a novel analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background National levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. Methods We mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure-the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index-on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r= 0.88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r= 0.83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r= 0.77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time. Findings Between 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28.6 to 94.6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among lowest-SDI countries. While the global HAQ Index average rose from 40.7 (95% uncertainty interval, 39.0-42.8) in 1990 to 53.7 (52.2-55.4) in 2015, far less progress occurred in narrowing the gap between observed HAQ Index values and maximum levels achieved; at the global level, the difference between the observed and frontier HAQ Index only decreased from 21.2 in 1990 to 20.1 in 2015. If every country and territory had achieved the highest observed HAQ Index by their corresponding level of SDI, the global average would have been 73.8 in 2015. Several countries, particularly in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa, reached HAQ Index values similar to or beyond their development levels, whereas others, namely in southern sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and south Asia, lagged behind what geographies of similar development attained between 1990 and 2015. Interpretation This novel extension of the GBD Study shows the untapped potential for personal health-care access and quality improvement across the development spectrum. Amid substantive advances in personal health care at the national level, heterogeneous patterns for individual causes in given countries or territories suggest that few places have consistently achieved optimal health-care access and quality across health-system functions and therapeutic areas. This is especially evident in middle-SDI countries, many of which have recently undergone or are currently experiencing epidemiological transitions. The HAQ Index, if paired with other measures of health-systemcharacteristics such as intervention coverage, could provide a robust avenue for tracking progress on universal health coverage and identifying local priorities for strengthening personal health-care quality and access throughout the world. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Forouzanfar MH, Afshin A, Alexander LT, et al. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. LANCET. 2016;388(10053):1659-1724.Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57.8% (95% CI 56.6-58.8) of global deaths and 41.2% (39.8-42.8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211.8 million [192.7 million to 231.1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148.6 million [134.2 million to 163.1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143.1 million [125.1 million to 163.5 million]), high BMI (120.1 million [83.8 million to 158.4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113.3 million [103.9 million to 123.4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103.1 million [90.8 million to 115.1 million]), high total cholesterol (88.7 million [74.6 million to 105.7 million]), household air pollution (85.6 million [66.7 million to 106.1 million]), alcohol use (85.0 million [77.2 million to 93.0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83.0 million [49.3 million to 127.5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd