Efficient Reliability Estimation Approach for Analysis and Optimization of Composite Structures

The efficient evaluation of reliability index is of considerable importance in the assessment of component reliability and reliability-based structural optimization. In this thesis, the structural reliabiltiy analysis is performed using the random sampling techniques such as traditional Monte Carlo simulation and the analytical techniques such as first-order reliability method. The feasibility of Gauss quadrature points as means of target sampling of design space and generating accurate first- and second-order response surface models of failure functions is examined. Parametric uncertainty is considered by probabilistic modeling of design parameters. Various alternative approaches for estimation of component reliability index are examined with application to two structural problems: ply failure in a multidirectional composite laminate and axial buckling of a composite circular cylinder. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis is performed to measure the influence of each random variable on the estimated reliability index. The advantages and disadvantages of each approach are discussed and the approach considered the most efficient in terms of accuracy and computational requirements is identified. Furthermore, the most efficient approach is applied in reliability-based structural optimization of a composite circular cylinder with ply failure and axial buckling constraints. The optimization problem is solved using sequential quadratic programming based on sequential local response surface approximations of failure functions. The optimization results are presented for different geometric properties, laminate configurations, and coefficients of variation

Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations: A systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Background: A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health-care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016. Methods Drawing from established methods and updated estimates from GBD 2016, we used 32 causes from which death should not occur in the presence of effective care to approximate personal health-care access and quality by location and over time. To better isolate potential effects of personal health-care access and quality from underlying risk factor patterns, we risk-standardised cause-specific deaths due to non-cancers by location-year, replacing the local joint exposure of environmental and behavioural risks with the global level of exposure. Supported by the expansion of cancer registry data in GBD 2016, we used mortality-to-incidence ratios for cancers instead of risk-standardised death rates to provide a stronger signal of the effects of personal health care and access on cancer survival. We transformed each cause to a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the first percentile (worst) observed between 1990 and 2016, and 100 as the 99th percentile (best); we set these thresholds at the country level, and then applied them to subnational locations. We applied a principal components analysis to construct the HAQ Index using all scaled cause values, providing an overall score of 0-100 of personal health-care access and quality by location over time. We then compared HAQ Index levels and trends by quintiles on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary measure of overall development. As derived from the broader GBD study and other data sources, we examined relationships between national HAQ Index scores and potential correlates of performance, such as total health spending per capita. Findings In 2016, HAQ Index performance spanned from a high of 97\ub71 (95% UI 95\ub78-98\ub71) in Iceland, followed by 96\ub76 (94\ub79-97\ub79) in Norway and 96\ub71 (94\ub75-97\ub73) in the Netherlands, to values as low as 18\ub76 (13\ub71-24\ub74) in the Central African Republic, 19\ub70 (14\ub73-23\ub77) in Somalia, and 23\ub74 (20\ub72-26\ub78) in Guinea-Bissau. The pace of progress achieved between 1990 and 2016 varied, with markedly faster improvements occurring between 2000 and 2016 for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia, whereas several countries in Latin America and elsewhere saw progress stagnate after experiencing considerable advances in the HAQ Index between 1990 and 2000. Striking subnational disparities emerged in personal health-care access and quality, with China and India having particularly large gaps between locations with the highest and lowest scores in 2016. In China, performance ranged from 91\ub75 (89\ub71-93\ub76) in Beijing to 48\ub70 (43\ub74-53\ub72) in Tibet (a 43\ub75-point difference), while India saw a 30\ub78-point disparity, from 64\ub78 (59\ub76-68\ub78) in Goa to 34\ub70 (30\ub73-38\ub71) in Assam. Japan recorded the smallest range in subnational HAQ performance in 2016 (a 4\ub78-point difference), whereas differences between subnational locations with the highest and lowest HAQ Index values were more than two times as high for the USA and three times as high for England. State-level gaps in the HAQ Index in Mexico somewhat narrowed from 1990 to 2016 (from a 20\ub79-point to 17\ub70-point difference), whereas in Brazil, disparities slightly increased across states during this time (a 17\ub72-point to 20\ub74-point difference). Performance on the HAQ Index showed strong linkages to overall development, with high and high-middle SDI countries generally having higher scores and faster gains for non-communicable diseases. Nonetheless, countries across the development spectrum saw substantial gains in some key health service areas from 2000 to 2016, most notably vaccine-preventable diseases. Overall, national performance on the HAQ Index was positively associated with higher levels of total health spending per capita, as well as health systems inputs, but these relationships were quite heterogeneous, particularly among low-to-middle SDI countries. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides a more detailed understanding of past success and current challenges in improving personal health-care access and quality worldwide. Despite substantial gains since 2000, many low-SDI and middle- SDI countries face considerable challenges unless heightened policy action and investments focus on advancing access to and quality of health care across key health services, especially non-communicable diseases. Stagnating or minimal improvements experienced by several low-middle to high-middle SDI countries could reflect the complexities of re-orienting both primary and secondary health-care services beyond the more limited foci of the Millennium Development Goals. Alongside initiatives to strengthen public health programmes, the pursuit of universal health coverage hinges upon improving both access and quality worldwide, and thus requires adopting a more comprehensive view-and subsequent provision-of quality health care for all populations

Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations: A systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. Background A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health-care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016. Methods Drawing from established methods and updated estimates from GBD 2016, we used 32 causes from which death should not occur in the presence of effective care to approximate personal health-care access and quality by location and over time. To better isolate potential effects of personal health-care access and quality from underlying risk factor patterns, we risk-standardised cause-specific deaths due to non-cancers by location-year, replacing the local joint exposure of environmental and behavioural risks with the global level of exposure. Supported by the expansion of cancer registry data in GBD 2016, we used mortality-to-incidence ratios for cancers instead of risk-standardised death rates to provide a stronger signal of the effects of personal health care and access on cancer survival. We transformed each cause to a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the first percentile (worst) observed between 1990 and 2016, and 100 as the 99th percentile (best); we set these thresholds at the country level, and then applied them to subnational locations. We applied a principal components analysis to construct the HAQ Index using all scaled cause values, providing an overall score of 0-100 of personal health-care access and quality by location over time. We then compared HAQ Index levels and trends by quintiles on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary measure of overall development. As derived from the broader GBD study and other data sources, we examined relationships between national HAQ Index scores and potential correlates of performance, such as total health spending per capita. Findings In 2016, HAQ Index performance spanned from a high of 97·1 (95% UI 95·8-98·1) in Iceland, followed by 96·6 (94·9-97·9) in Norway and 96·1 (94·5-97·3) in the Netherlands, to values as low as 18·6 (13·1-24·4) in the Central African Republic, 19·0 (14·3-23·7) in Somalia, and 23·4 (20·2-26·8) in Guinea-Bissau. The pace of progress achieved between 1990 and 2016 varied, with markedly faster improvements occurring between 2000 and 2016 for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia, whereas several countries in Latin America and elsewhere saw progress stagnate after experiencing considerable advances in the HAQ Index between 1990 and 2000. Striking subnational disparities emerged in personal health-care access and quality, with China and India having particularly large gaps between locations with the highest and lowest scores in 2016. In China, performance ranged from 91·5 (89·1-93·6) in Beijing to 48·0 (43·4-53·2) in Tibet (a 43·5-point difference), while India saw a 30·8-point disparity, from 64·8 (59·6-68·8) in Goa to 34·0 (30·3-38·1) in Assam. Japan recorded the smallest range in subnational HAQ performance in 2016 (a 4·8-point difference), whereas differences between subnational locations with the highest and lowest HAQ Index values were more than two times as high for the USA and three times as high for England. State-level gaps in the HAQ Index in Mexico somewhat narrowed from 1990 to 2016 (from a 20·9-point to 17·0-point difference), whereas in Brazil, disparities slightly increased across states during this time (a 17·2-point to 20·4-point difference). Performance on the HAQ Index showed strong linkages to overall development, with high and high-middle SDI countries generally having higher scores and faster gains for non-communicable diseases. Nonetheless, countries across the development spectrum saw substantial gains in some key health service areas from 2000 to 2016, most notably vaccine-preventable diseases. Overall, national performance on the HAQ Index was positively associated with higher levels of total health spending per capita, as well as health systems inputs, but these relationships were quite heterogeneous, particularly among low-to-middle SDI countries. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides a more detailed understanding of past success and current challenges in improving personal health-care access and quality worldwide. Despite substantial gains since 2000, many low-SDI and middle- SDI countries face considerable challenges unless heightened policy action and investments focus on advancing access to and quality of health care across key health services, especially non-communicable diseases. Stagnating or minimal improvements experienced by several low-middle to high-middle SDI countries could reflect the complexities of re-orienting both primary and secondary health-care services beyond the more limited foci of the Millennium Development Goals. Alongside initiatives to strengthen public health programmes, the pursuit of universal health coverage hinges upon improving both access and quality worldwide, and thus requires adopting a more comprehensive view - and subsequent provision - of quality health care for all populations

Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

BACKGROUND: A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health-care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016. METHODS: Drawing from established methods and updated estimates from GBD 2016, we used 32 causes from which death should not occur in the presence of effective care to approximate personal health-care access and quality by location and over time. To better isolate potential effects of personal health-care access and quality from underlying risk factor patterns, we risk-standardised cause-specific deaths due to non-cancers by location-year, replacing the local joint exposure of environmental and behavioural risks with the global level of exposure. Supported by the expansion of cancer registry data in GBD 2016, we used mortality-to-incidence ratios for cancers instead of risk-standardised death rates to provide a stronger signal of the effects of personal health care and access on cancer survival. We transformed each cause to a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the first percentile (worst) observed between 1990 and 2016, and 100 as the 99th percentile (best); we set these thresholds at the country level, and then applied them to subnational locations. We applied a principal components analysis to construct the HAQ Index using all scaled cause values, providing an overall score of 0-100 of personal health-care access and quality by location over time. We then compared HAQ Index levels and trends by quintiles on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary measure of overall development. As derived from the broader GBD study and other data sources, we examined relationships between national HAQ Index scores and potential correlates of performance, such as total health spending per capita

Some Efficient Estimation Procedures under Non-Response in Two-Occasion Successive Sampling

This paper deals with the estimation of current population mean under non-response in two-occasion successive sampling. Information on a dynamic auxiliary variable has been used and efficient estimation procedures have been suggested which are capable in minimizing the negative impact of non-response when it occurred on current occasion in two-occasion successive sampling. Properties of the proposed estimation procedures have been studied and suitable recommendations are made

PCR and genotyping for HPV in cervical cancer patients

Aims: To devise nested multiplex polymerase chain reaction (NMPCR) protocol for detection of mucosal human papilloma viruses (HPVs) and typing of HPV-16 and -18 in formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissues of carcinoma cervix (CaCx). Settings and Design: Cross-sectional observational study. Materials and Methods: NMPCR was done for simultaneous detection of HPV, targeting 134 bp L1 capsid gene employing GP+/mGP+ primers and typing of genotypes-16 and -18, targeting E6/E7 gene from 34 FFPE tissue blocks of CaCx and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN). Detection of 142 bp consensus sequence of L1 capsid gene was performed by nested PCR employing MY/GP+ primers. Sequencing of selected PCR amplicons of the later protocol obtained from control cell line DNA and 5 select samples were done for validation of the NMPCR protocol. Statistical Analysis Used: Calculation of percentage from the Microsoft Excel Software. Results: Of 26 FFPE samples of CaCx, 17 (65.3%) samples were found positive for HPV by NMPCR. Amplicons of 142 bp L1 capsid gene employing MY/GP+ primers were observed in 11 (42.3%) samples of CaCx. Nearly 25% samples of CIN were positive for HPV. On sequence analysis, it was observed that the sample typed as HPV-16 by NMPCR was found to be the same on sequencing of amplicons obtained after MY/GP+ nested PCR. Conclusions: This study indicates the usefulness of our NMPCR protocol for detection of mucosal HPVs and typing of HPV-16 and -18 from FFPE tissue samples of CaCx. The NMPCR protocol may be used to detect HPV and type common genotypes-16 and -18 in fresh tissue of cervical biopsy or scrape samples for screening of CaCx

The effect of pre-operative carbohydrate loading in femur fracture:a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Femur fracture is a major burden among elderly people, leading patients to be bedridden for a long time in the hospital. The body is more likely to be in a catabolic state as a result of the prolonged fasting period required for surgery, leading to an increase in insulin resistance. Pre-operative carbohydrate loading has been shown to improve postoperative outcomes in several countries. The study aimed to evaluate the effect of pre-operative carbohydrate loading in femur fracture surgery. METHODS: This study was single-center, hospital-based, open-label, parallel-group randomized controlled trial conducted between August 2020 and November 2021. A total of 66 participants, aged 50 years and above having femur fractures planned for surgery were included in this study and assigned to the control (n = 33) and study (n = 33) groups through computer-generated random numbers. The control group was kept fasting from midnight to the next morning as in existence while the study group was intervened with carbohydrate loading according to the Enhanced Recovery After Surgery (ERAS) protocol. The pre-operative nutritional status was identified and the postoperative outcomes were measured using the Visual Analogue Score (VAS), Cumulative Ambulatory Score (CAS), and Modified Barthel Index (MBI) scoring systems. Statistical analyses were performed using the Chi-square test and the Student’s two-sample t-test to compare the outcomes between the two groups. RESULTS: All the participants completed the study. There was a significant reduction in the average postoperative pain in the carbohydrate loading group (VAS: 4.8 (SD ± 1.8), 95% CI: 4.7–5.4) as compared to the control group (VAS: 6.1 (SD ± 2.1), 95% CI: 5.3–6.8). The average CAS showed a significant improvement in regaining the mobility function of participants in the study group (CAS: 8.1 (SD ± 2.8), 95% CI: 7.1–9.1) than that of the control group (CAS: 6.8 (SD ± 2.8), 95% CI: 5.8–7.8). The mean MBI score of the participants at the time of discharge from the hospital was higher in the study group (MBI:13.1 (SD ± 2.3), 95% CI: 12.2–13.9) compared to the control group (MBI: 11.8 (SD ± 3.1), 95% CI:10.6–12.9). Similarly, the length of hospital stay after surgery had decreased in the study group than in the control group. CONCLUSIONS: The uptake of carbohydrate loading showed reduced post-operative pain, enhanced functional mobility, and decreased length of hospital stay. This study warrants larger trials to show the effect of pre-operative carbohydrate loading in a clinical setting. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT04838366, first registered on 09/042021 (https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04838366). SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12891-022-05766-z

Developing and deploying a community healthcare worker-driven, digitally- enabled integrated care system for municipalities in rural Nepal

International audienceIntegrating care at the home and facility level is a critical yet neglected function of healthcare delivery systems. There are few examples in practice or in the academic literature of affordable, digitally-enabled integrated care approaches embedded within healthcare delivery systems in low- and middle-income countries. Simultaneous advances in affordable digital technologies and community healthcare workers offer an opportunity to address this challenge. We describe the development of an integrated care system involving community healthcare worker networks that utilize a home-to-facility electronic health record platform for rural municipalities in Nepal. Key aspects of our approach of relevance to a global audience include: community healthcare workers continuously engaging with populations through household visits every three months; community healthcare workers using digital tools during the routine course of clinical care; individual and population-level data generated routinely being utilized for program improvement; and being responsive to privacy, security, and human rights concerns. We discuss implementation, lessons learned, challenges, and opportunities for future directions in integrated care delivery systems