An in silico analysis identifies drugs potentially modulating the cytokine storm triggered by SARS-CoV-2 infection

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is one of the biggest health challenges of recent decades. Among the causes of mortality triggered by SARS-CoV-2 infection, the development of an inflammatory “cytokine storm” (CS) plays a determinant role. Here, we used transcriptomic data from the bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) of COVID-19 patients undergoing a CS to obtain gene-signatures associated to this pathology. Using these signatures, we interrogated the Connectivity Map (CMap) dataset that contains the effects of over 5000 small molecules on the transcriptome of human cell lines, and looked for molecules which effects on transcription mimic or oppose those of the CS. As expected, molecules that potentiate immune responses such as PKC activators are predicted to worsen the CS. In addition, we identified the negative regulation of female hormones among pathways potentially aggravating the CS, which helps to understand the gender-related differences in COVID-19 mortality. Regarding drugs potentially counteracting the CS, we identified glucocorticoids as a top hit, which validates our approach as this is the primary treatment for this pathology. Interestingly, our analysis also reveals a potential effect of MEK inhibitors in reverting the COVID-19 CS, which is supported by in vitro data that confirms the anti-inflammatory properties of these compounds.Open access funding provided by Karolinska Institute.S

In-situ methane enrichment in continuous anaerobic digestion of pig slurry by zero-valent iron nanoparticles addition under mesophilic and thermophilic conditions

The effect of zero-valent iron nanoparticles (nZVI) addition on methane production during anaerobic digestion of pig slurry was assessed. Experiments were conducted using two experimental set-ups: batch and long-term continuous operation at a fixed nZVI dosage. Two different temperature operation ranges (mesophilic and thermophilic) were assessed. Biogas production and methane content were monitored, and the specific methanogenic activity of the biomass and nZVI oxidation state were evaluated at different timesThis research was funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (INIA project RTA2015-00079-C02-01). The support of the CERCA Program and of the Consolidated Research Group TERRA (ref. 2017 SGR 1290), both from the Generalitat de Catalunya, is also acknowledged.Peer ReviewedPostprint (updated version

Coartação não corrigida da aorta em paciente grávida

Aortic coarctation accounts for 4% to 6% of congenital heart defects, ranking seventh in the list of all congenital heart diseases. It is characterized by a discrete narrowing, usually in the descending portion of the aortic arch and distal to the left subclavian artery. Pregnant patients with aortic coarctation present a higher risk of complications: rupture or dissection of the aorta, aneurysms in the polygon of Willis and endocarditis. Therefore, defining correct and preventive treatment during pregnancy as well as the way of delivery is important. We present the clinical case of a patient with a history of uncorrected aortic coarctation and diagnosis of pree- clampsia, highlighting the process of care, diagnostic approach and integrated handling during hospitalization. A literature review and critical analysis of the case are also presented. It can be concluded that uncorrected aortic coarctation generates multiple  complications;  the  importance  of  preconception  consultation  is  highlighted  and, in the absence of contraindications, carry out adequate multidisciplinary control by maternal-fetal medicine, car- diology and haemodynamics.La coartación aórtica constituye entre el 4% y 6% de los defectos cardíacos congénitos y ocupa el séptimo lugar en la lista de todas las cardiopatías congénitas. Se caracteriza por un estrechamiento discreto, generalmente en la porción descendente del arco aórtico y distal a la arteria subclavia izquierda. Las pacientes embarazadas con coarta- ción aórtica presentan mayor riesgo de complicaciones: ruptura o disección de la aorta, aneurismas en el polígono de Willis y endocarditis. Es importante definir el tratamiento oportuno y preventivo durante el embarazo, así como la vía del parto. Se presenta el caso clínico de una paciente con antecedente de coartación aórtica no corregida y diagnóstico de preeclampsia, resaltando el proceso de atención, enfoque diagnóstico y manejo integral durante la hospitalización. Se expone además una revisión de la literatura y un análisis crítico del caso. Se concluye que la coartación aórtica sin tratamiento genera múltiples complicaciones; se destaca la importancia de la consulta preconcepcional para evaluar los riesgos del embarazo y llevar un adecuado control multidisciplinario por medicina materno fetal, cardio- logía y hemodinamia.A coarctação da aorta representa entre 4% e 6% das cardiopatias congênitas e ocupa o sétimo lugar na lista de todas as cardiopatias congênitas. Caracteriza-se por estreitamento discreto, geralmente na porção descendente do arco aórtico e distal à artéria subclávia esquerda. Pacientes grávidas com coarctação da aorta apresentam risco aumentado de complicações: ruptura ou dissecção da aorta, aneurismas no círculo de Willis e endocardite. É impor- tante definir o tratamento oportuno e preventivo durante a gravidez, bem como a via de parto. Apresenta-se o caso clínico de uma paciente com história de coarctação de aorta não corrigida e diagnóstico de pré-eclâmpsia, destacando o processo de cuidado, abordagem diagnóstica e atenção integral durante a internação. Uma revisão da literatura e uma análise crítica do caso também são apresentados. Conclui-se que a coarctação da aorta sem tratamento gera múltiplas complicações por tanto é ressaltada a importância da consulta preconcepcio- nal para avaliar os riscos da gravidez e realizar controle multidisciplinar pela medicina materno-fetal, cardiologia e hemodinâmica

Research ethics review system state in Argentina and the adaptation in response to the COVID-19 pandemic

Fil: Palmero, Ana. Ministerio de Salud de la Nación; Argentina.Fil: Torales, Santiago. Ministerio de Salud de la Nación; Argentina.Fil: Garau, Laura. Ministerio de Salud de la Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires; Argentina.Fil: Álvarez, Jorgelina. Ministerio de Salud, Desarrollo Social y Deportes de Mendoza; Argentina.Fil: Martinelli, Beatriz. Ministerio de Salud de Santa Fe; Argentina.Fil: Vukotich, Claudia. Ministerio de Salud de la Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires; Argentina.Fil: Sanchez, Silvina. Ministerio de Salud de la Provincia de Buenos Aires; Argentina.Fil: Burger, Carlos. Ministerio de Salud de la Provincia de Buenos Aires; Argentina.Fil: Mercado, Daniel. Ministerio de Salud de Córdoba; Argentina.Fil: Lencina, Verónica. Ministerio de Salud de Salta; Argentina.Fil: Oliva, Valeria. Ministerio de Salud de Salta; Argentina.Fil: Anze, Ismael. Ministerio de Salud de Salta; Argentina.Fil: Apaza, Gladis. Ministerio de Salud de Jujuy; Argentina.Fil: Bazán de Casella, María Cristina. Ministerio de Salud de Tucumán; Argentina.Fil: Burgos, Graciela. Ministerio de Salud de Santiago del Estero; Argentina.Fil: Martín, María Cristina. Ministerio de Salud de Misiones; Argentina.Fil: Margaria, Laura. Ministerio de Salud de Río Negro; Argentina.Fil: Manonelles, Gabriela. Ministerio de Salud de Santa Cruz; Argentina.Fil: Benzi, Patricia. Ministerio de Salud de Entre Ríos; Argentina.Fil: Pérez Pazo, Andrea. Ministerio de Salud Pública de San Juan; Argentina.INTRODUCCIÓN: un sistema de evaluación ética de las investigaciones en seres humanos es esencial para proteger los derechos de los participantes. Los desafíos impuestos por la pandemia de la COVID-19 para conducir investigaciones éticas que produzcan resultados con rapidez demuestran la necesidad de fortalecerlo. El objetivo de este estudio fue describir el estado de situación de los sistemas de evaluación ética de las provincias de Argentina y las adaptaciones realizadas por la pandemia. MÉTODOS: se realizó una encuesta a los comités provinciales de ética en investigación o áreas similares de los ministerios de Salud que ejercen la vigilancia sobre la evaluación ética de las investigaciones de su jurisdicción. RESULTADOS: respondieron 16 de las 17 provincias encuestadas. El 93,7% de los comités provinciales evalúa investigaciones en seres humanos y tiene procedimientos operativos estandarizados (POE). El 68,7% lleva un registro de los comités de ética en investigación (CEI) de su jurisdicción. Un 75% acredita a los CEI y un 68,7% los supervisa. El 100% tiene un registro de las investigaciones en salud; en 56,2% de los casos este registro es público. Del total, 81,2% realizan actividades de capacitación. El 100% adaptó los POE para evaluar estudios sobre la COVID-19. DISCUSIÓN: los resultados muestran sistemas provinciales consolidados. Se requiere fortalecer la transparencia en la investigación mediante el registro público de las investigaciones. Se identificaron posibilidades de mejora para proponer acciones a futuro

Research ethics review system state in Argentina and the adaptation in response to the COVID-19 pandemic

Fil: Palmero, Ana. Ministerio de Salud de la Nación; Argentina.Fil: Torales, Santiago. Ministerio de Salud de la Nación; Argentina.Fil: Garau, Laura. Ministerio de Salud de la Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires; Argentina.Fil: Álvarez, Jorgelina. Ministerio de Salud, Desarrollo Social y Deportes de Mendoza; Argentina.Fil: Martinelli, Beatriz. Ministerio de Salud de Santa Fe; Argentina.Fil: Vukotich, Claudia. Ministerio de Salud de la Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires; Argentina.Fil: Sanchez, Silvina. Ministerio de Salud de la Provincia de Buenos Aires; Argentina.Fil: Burger, Carlos. Ministerio de Salud de la Provincia de Buenos Aires; Argentina.Fil: Mercado, Daniel. Ministerio de Salud de Córdoba; Argentina.Fil: Lencina, Verónica. Ministerio de Salud de Salta; Argentina.Fil: Oliva, Valeria. Ministerio de Salud de Salta; Argentina.Fil: Anze, Ismael. Ministerio de Salud de Salta; Argentina.Fil: Apaza, Gladis. Ministerio de Salud de Jujuy; Argentina.Fil: Bazán de Casella, María Cristina. Ministerio de Salud de Tucumán; Argentina.Fil: Burgos, Graciela. Ministerio de Salud de Santiago del Estero; Argentina.Fil: Martín, María Cristina. Ministerio de Salud de Misiones; Argentina.Fil: Margaria, Laura. Ministerio de Salud de Río Negro; Argentina.Fil: Manonelles, Gabriela. Ministerio de Salud de Santa Cruz; Argentina.Fil: Benzi, Patricia. Ministerio de Salud de Entre Ríos; Argentina.Fil: Pérez Pazo, Andrea. Ministerio de Salud Pública de San Juan; Argentina.INTRODUCCIÓN: un sistema de evaluación ética de las investigaciones en seres humanos es esencial para proteger los derechos de los participantes. Los desafíos impuestos por la pandemia de la COVID-19 para conducir investigaciones éticas que produzcan resultados con rapidez demuestran la necesidad de fortalecerlo. El objetivo de este estudio fue describir el estado de situación de los sistemas de evaluación ética de las provincias de Argentina y las adaptaciones realizadas por la pandemia. MÉTODOS: se realizó una encuesta a los comités provinciales de ética en investigación o áreas similares de los ministerios de Salud que ejercen la vigilancia sobre la evaluación ética de las investigaciones de su jurisdicción. RESULTADOS: respondieron 16 de las 17 provincias encuestadas. El 93,7% de los comités provinciales evalúa investigaciones en seres humanos y tiene procedimientos operativos estandarizados (POE). El 68,7% lleva un registro de los comités de ética en investigación (CEI) de su jurisdicción. Un 75% acredita a los CEI y un 68,7% los supervisa. El 100% tiene un registro de las investigaciones en salud; en 56,2% de los casos este registro es público. Del total, 81,2% realizan actividades de capacitación. El 100% adaptó los POE para evaluar estudios sobre la COVID-19. DISCUSIÓN: los resultados muestran sistemas provinciales consolidados. Se requiere fortalecer la transparencia en la investigación mediante el registro público de las investigaciones. Se identificaron posibilidades de mejora para proponer acciones a futuro

Genetic landscape of 6089 inherited retinal dystrophies affected cases in Spain and their therapeutic and extended epidemiological implications

Inherited retinal diseases (IRDs), defined by dysfunction or progressive loss of photoreceptors, are disorders characterized by elevated heterogeneity, both at the clinical and genetic levels. Our main goal was to address the genetic landscape of IRD in the largest cohort of Spanish patients reported to date. A retrospective hospital-based cross-sectional study was carried out on 6089 IRD affected individuals (from 4403 unrelated families), referred for genetic testing from all the Spanish autonomous communities. Clinical, demographic and familiar data were collected from each patient, including family pedigree, age of appearance of visual symptoms, presence of any systemic findings and geographical origin. Genetic studies were performed to the 3951 families with available DNA using different molecular techniques. Overall, 53.2% (2100/3951) of the studied families were genetically characterized, and 1549 different likely causative variants in 142 genes were identified. The most common phenotype encountered is retinitis pigmentosa (RP) (55.6% of families, 2447/4403). The most recurrently mutated genes were PRPH2, ABCA4 and RS1 in autosomal dominant (AD), autosomal recessive (AR) and X-linked (XL) NON-RP cases, respectively; RHO, USH2A and RPGR in AD, AR and XL for non-syndromic RP; and USH2A and MYO7A in syndromic IRD. Pathogenic variants c.3386G > T (p.Arg1129Leu) in ABCA4 and c.2276G > T (p.Cys759Phe) in USH2A were the most frequent variants identified. Our study provides the general landscape for IRD in Spain, reporting the largest cohort ever presented. Our results have important implications for genetic diagnosis, counselling and new therapeutic strategies to both the Spanish population and other related populations.This work was supported by the Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII) of the Spanish Ministry of Health (FIS; PI16/00425 and PI19/00321), Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Enfermedades Raras (CIBERER, 06/07/0036), IIS-FJD BioBank (PT13/0010/0012), Comunidad de Madrid (CAM, RAREGenomics Project, B2017/BMD-3721), European Regional Development Fund (FEDER), the Organización Nacional de Ciegos Españoles (ONCE), Fundación Ramón Areces, Fundación Conchita Rábago and the University Chair UAM-IIS-FJD of Genomic Medicine. Irene Perea-Romero is supported by a PhD fellowship from the predoctoral Program from ISCIII (FI17/00192). Ionut F. Iancu is supported by a grant from the Comunidad de Madrid (CAM, PEJ-2017-AI/BMD7256). Marta del Pozo-Valero is supported by a PhD grant from the Fundación Conchita Rábago. Berta Almoguera is supported by a Juan Rodes program from ISCIII (JR17/00020). Pablo Minguez is supported by a Miguel Servet program from ISCIII (CP16/00116). Marta Corton is supported by a Miguel Servet program from ISCIII (CPII17/00006). The funders played no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, manuscript preparation and/or publication decisions

Canagliflozin and renal outcomes in type 2 diabetes and nephropathy

BACKGROUND Type 2 diabetes mellitus is the leading cause of kidney failure worldwide, but few effective long-term treatments are available. In cardiovascular trials of inhibitors of sodium–glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2), exploratory results have suggested that such drugs may improve renal outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes. METHODS In this double-blind, randomized trial, we assigned patients with type 2 diabetes and albuminuric chronic kidney disease to receive canagliflozin, an oral SGLT2 inhibitor, at a dose of 100 mg daily or placebo. All the patients had an estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) of 30 to <90 ml per minute per 1.73 m2 of body-surface area and albuminuria (ratio of albumin [mg] to creatinine [g], >300 to 5000) and were treated with renin–angiotensin system blockade. The primary outcome was a composite of end-stage kidney disease (dialysis, transplantation, or a sustained estimated GFR of <15 ml per minute per 1.73 m2), a doubling of the serum creatinine level, or death from renal or cardiovascular causes. Prespecified secondary outcomes were tested hierarchically. RESULTS The trial was stopped early after a planned interim analysis on the recommendation of the data and safety monitoring committee. At that time, 4401 patients had undergone randomization, with a median follow-up of 2.62 years. The relative risk of the primary outcome was 30% lower in the canagliflozin group than in the placebo group, with event rates of 43.2 and 61.2 per 1000 patient-years, respectively (hazard ratio, 0.70; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59 to 0.82; P=0.00001). The relative risk of the renal-specific composite of end-stage kidney disease, a doubling of the creatinine level, or death from renal causes was lower by 34% (hazard ratio, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.53 to 0.81; P<0.001), and the relative risk of end-stage kidney disease was lower by 32% (hazard ratio, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.54 to 0.86; P=0.002). The canagliflozin group also had a lower risk of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.95; P=0.01) and hospitalization for heart failure (hazard ratio, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.47 to 0.80; P<0.001). There were no significant differences in rates of amputation or fracture. CONCLUSIONS In patients with type 2 diabetes and kidney disease, the risk of kidney failure and cardiovascular events was lower in the canagliflozin group than in the placebo group at a median follow-up of 2.62 years

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. Methods The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODErn), to generate cause fractions and cause specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. Findings At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NC Ds) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73.4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72.5-74.1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 186% (17.9-19.6), and injuries 8.0% (7.7-8.2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22.7% (21.5-23.9), representing an additional 7.61 million (7. 20-8.01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7.9% (7.08.8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 222% (20.0-24.0) and the death rate by 31.8% (30.1-33.3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2.3% (0-5-4-0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13.7% (12.2-15.1) to 57.9 deaths (55.9-59.2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118.0% (88.8-148.6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36.4% (32.2-40.6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33.6% (31.2-36.1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respirator}, infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990 neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. Interpretation Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2\ub75th percentile and 100 as the 97\ub75th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59\ub74 (IQR 35\ub74–67\ub73), ranging from a low of 11\ub76 (95% uncertainty interval 9\ub76–14\ub70) to a high of 84\ub79 (83\ub71–86\ub77). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

How long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population's state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severity of ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years. Methods We used data for age-specific mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Socio-demographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males. Findings Globally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 7·1-7·8), from 65·6 years (65·3-65·8) in 1990 to 73·0 years (72·7-73·3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5·1 years (5·0-5·3) in high SDI countries to 12·0 years (11·3-12·8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26·3% (20·1-33·1) were expected to be spent in poor health in high SDI countries compared with 11·7% (8·8-15·1) in low-middle SDI countries. HALE at birth increased by 6·3 years (5·9-6·7), from 57·0 years (54·6-59·1) in 1990 to 63·3 years (60·5-65·7) in 2017. The increase varied from 3·8 years (3·4-4·1) in high SDI countries to 10·5 years (9·8-11·2) in low SDI countries. Even larger variations in HALE than these were observed between countries, ranging from 1·0 year (0·4-1·7) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (62·4 years [59·9-64·7] in 1990 to 63·5 years [60·9-65·8] in 2017) to 23·7 years (21·9-25·6) in Eritrea (30·7 years [28·9-32·2] in 1990 to 54·4 years [51·5-57·1] in 2017). In most countries, the increase in HALE was smaller than the increase in overall life expectancy, indicating more years lived in poor health. In 180 of 195 countries and territories, females were expected to live longer than males in 2017, with extra years lived varying from 1·4 years (0·6-2·3) in Algeria to 11·9 years (10·9-12·9) in Ukraine. Of the extra years gained, the proportion spent in poor health varied largely across countries, with less than 20% of additional years spent in poor health in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, and Slovakia, whereas in Bahrain all the extra years were spent in poor health. In 2017, the highest estimate of HALE at birth was in Singapore for both females (75·8 years [72·4-78·7]) and males (72·6 years [69·8-75·0]) and the lowest estimates were in Central African Republic (47·0 years [43·7-50·2] for females and 42·8 years [40·1-45·6] for males). Globally, in 2017, the five leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory infections, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 41·3% (38·8-43·5) for communicable diseases and by 49·8% (47·9-51·6) for neonatal disorders. For non-communicable diseases, global DALYs increased by 40·1% (36·8-43·0), although age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 18·1% (16·0-20·2)