Randomized placebo controlled trial evaluating the safety and efficacy of single low dose intracoronary insulin like growth factor following percutaneous coronary intervention in acute myocardial infarction (RESUS-AMI)

Background: Residual and significant post-infarction left ventricular (LV) dysfunction, despite technically successful percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), remains an important clinical issue. In preclinical models low dose insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF1) has potent cytoprotective and positive cardiac remodelling effects. We studied the safety and efficacy of immediate post PCI low dose intracoronary IGF1 infusion in STEMI patients. Methods: Using a double-blind, placebo controlled, multi-dose study design, we randomized 47 STEMI patients with significantly reduced (≤ 40%) LV ejection fraction (LVEF) after successful PCI to single intracoronary infusion of placebo (n=15), 1.5ng IGF1 (n=16) or 15ng IGF1 (n=16). All received optimal medical therapy. Safety endpoints were freedom from hypoglycaemia, hypotension or significant arrhythmias within 1 hour of therapy. The primary efficacy endpoint was LVEF and secondary endpoints were LV volumes, mass, stroke volume, and infarct size at 2 months follow up, all assessed by MRI. Treatment effects were estimated by analysis of covariance adjusted for baseline (24hrs) outcome. Results: No significant differences in safety endpoints occurred between treatment groups out to 30 days (chi squared test, p-value = 0.77).There were no statistically significant differences in baseline (24 hrs post STEMI) clinical characteristics or LVEF among groups. LVEF at 2 months, compared to baseline, increased in all groups with no statistically significant differences related to treatment assignment. However, compared with placebo or 1.5ng IGF1, treatment with 15ng IGF1 was associated with a significant improvement in indexed LV end-diastolic volume (p=0.018), LV mass (p=0.004) and stroke volume (p=0.016). Late gadolinium enhancement (±SD) at 2 months was lower in 15ng IGF1 (34.5±29.6g) compared to placebo (49.1±19.3g) or 1.5ng IGF1 (47.4±22.4g) treated patients, though the result was not statistically significant (p = 0.095). Conclusion: In this pilot trial, low dose IGF1, given after optimal mechanical reperfusion in STEMI, is safe but does not improve LVEF. However, there is a signal for a dose dependent benefit on post MI remodeling that may warrant further study. Despite timely reperfusion by primary PCI (PPCI) a significant cohort of patients develop adverse left ventricular remodelling with clinical sequelae such as arrhythmia and heart failure[1].Therapeutic approaches to avert such remodeling, including a variety of cell therapy and ischemia- reperfusion-injury mitigation trials have achieved modest success 2.;3. Thus, there remains a significant opportunity for novel therapies in this field

World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions

BACKGROUND: To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. METHODS: In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. FINDINGS: Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0·685 (95% CI 0·629-0·741) to 0·833 (0·783-0·882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. INTERPRETATION: We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. FUNDING: World Health Organization, British Heart Foundation (BHF), BHF Cambridge Centre for Research Excellence, UK Medical Research Council, and National Institute for Health Research

Evaluating the Effects of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Mutation D614G on Transmissibility and Pathogenicity.

Global dispersal and increasing frequency of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein variant D614G are suggestive of a selective advantage but may also be due to a random founder effect. We investigate the hypothesis for positive selection of spike D614G in the United Kingdom using more than 25,000 whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences. Despite the availability of a large dataset, well represented by both spike 614 variants, not all approaches showed a conclusive signal of positive selection. Population genetic analysis indicates that 614G increases in frequency relative to 614D in a manner consistent with a selective advantage. We do not find any indication that patients infected with the spike 614G variant have higher COVID-19 mortality or clinical severity, but 614G is associated with higher viral load and younger age of patients. Significant differences in growth and size of 614G phylogenetic clusters indicate a need for continued study of this variant

Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality : methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study

Background: While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. Methods: In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. Results: GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. Conclusions: GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future

Genome-wide Association Study of Change in Fasting Glucose over time in 13,807 non-diabetic European Ancestry Individuals

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) affects the health of millions of people worldwide. The identification of genetic determinants associated with changes in glycemia over time might illuminate biological features that precede the development of T2D. Here we conducted a genome-wide association study of longitudinal fasting glucose changes in up to 13,807 non-diabetic individuals of European descent from nine cohorts. Fasting glucose change over time was defined as the slope of the line defined by multiple fasting glucose measurements obtained over up to 14 years of observation. We tested for associations of genetic variants with inverse-normal transformed fasting glucose change over time adjusting for age at baseline, sex, and principal components of genetic variation. We found no genome-wide significant association (P < 5 x 10(-8)) with fasting glucose change over time. Seven loci previously associated with T2D, fasting glucose or HbA1c were nominally (P < 0.05) associated with fasting glucose change over time. Limited power influences unambiguous interpretation, but these data suggest that genetic effects on fasting glucose change over time are likely to be small. A public version of the data provides a genomic resource to combine with future studies to evaluate shared genetic links with T2D and other metabolic risk traits.Peer reviewe

AI is a viable alternative to high throughput screening: a 318-target study

: High throughput screening (HTS) is routinely used to identify bioactive small molecules. This requires physical compounds, which limits coverage of accessible chemical space. Computational approaches combined with vast on-demand chemical libraries can access far greater chemical space, provided that the predictive accuracy is sufficient to identify useful molecules. Through the largest and most diverse virtual HTS campaign reported to date, comprising 318 individual projects, we demonstrate that our AtomNet® convolutional neural network successfully finds novel hits across every major therapeutic area and protein class. We address historical limitations of computational screening by demonstrating success for target proteins without known binders, high-quality X-ray crystal structures, or manual cherry-picking of compounds. We show that the molecules selected by the AtomNet® model are novel drug-like scaffolds rather than minor modifications to known bioactive compounds. Our empirical results suggest that computational methods can substantially replace HTS as the first step of small-molecule drug discovery

Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality : methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study

Background While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. Methods In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. Results GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. Conclusions GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.Peer reviewe

New genetic loci link adipose and insulin biology to body fat distribution.

Body fat distribution is a heritable trait and a well-established predictor of adverse metabolic outcomes, independent of overall adiposity. To increase our understanding of the genetic basis of body fat distribution and its molecular links to cardiometabolic traits, here we conduct genome-wide association meta-analyses of traits related to waist and hip circumferences in up to 224,459 individuals. We identify 49 loci (33 new) associated with waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index (BMI), and an additional 19 loci newly associated with related waist and hip circumference measures (P < 5 × 10(-8)). In total, 20 of the 49 waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI loci show significant sexual dimorphism, 19 of which display a stronger effect in women. The identified loci were enriched for genes expressed in adipose tissue and for putative regulatory elements in adipocytes. Pathway analyses implicated adipogenesis, angiogenesis, transcriptional regulation and insulin resistance as processes affecting fat distribution, providing insight into potential pathophysiological mechanisms