Job Search and Savings: Wealth Effects and Duration Dependence.

In this paper we consider a risk averse worker who is moving back and forth between employment and unemployment; layoffs are random and beyond the worker's influcence, while the re-employment chance is directly affected by search effort. We characterize the worker's optimal savings and job-search behavior as well as the resulting consumption paths and wealth formation. In general, all decisions will depend on the current level of wealth: First, the choice of search effort increases as wealth decreases; a finding which is in accordance with our empirical duration analysis using micro data on unemployment spells. Second, consumption increases with wealth both when the worker is employed and unemployed. Third, savings provide insurance against income fluctuations but this insurance is not perfect; precautionary savings are built up during employment spells and run down during unemployment spells but the consumption path is never going to be completely smooth over states. Finally, our results suggest that the worker's search intensity and hence the probability of leaving unemployment will exhibit positive duration dependence over unemployment spells via its inverse relationship with the worker's wealth.

EPIC 201585823, a rare triple-mode RR Lyrae star discovered in K2 mission data

We have discovered a new, rare triple-mode RR Lyr star, EPIC 201585823, in the Kepler K2 mission Campaign 1 data. This star pulsates primarily in the fundamental and first-overtone radial modes, and, in addition, a third non-radial mode. The ratio of the period of the non-radial mode to that of the first-overtone radial mode, 0.616 285, is remarkably similar to that seen in 11 other triple-mode RR Lyr stars, and in 260 RRc stars observed in the Galactic bulge. This systematic character promises new constraints on RR Lyr star models. We detected subharmonics of the non-radial mode frequency, which are a signature of period doubling of this oscillation; we note that this phenomenon is ubiquitous in RRc and RRd stars observed from space, and from ground with sufficient precision. The non-radial mode and subharmonic frequencies are not constant in frequency or in amplitude. The amplitude spectrum of EPIC 201585823 is dominated by many combination frequencies among the three interacting pulsation mode frequencies. Inspection of the phase relationships of the combination frequencies in a phasor plot explains the ‘upward’ shape of the light curve. We also found that raw data with custom masks encompassing all pixels with significant signal for the star, but without correction for pointing changes, is best for frequency analysis of this star, and, by implication, other RR Lyr stars observed by the K2 mission. We compare several pipeline reductions of the K2 mission data for this star

Anticipating Unemployment: Savings Evidence from Denmark * (Preliminary and Incomplete)

Abstract This paper studies the savings behavior of workers faced with costly job loss. Using Danish administrative data on income, savings, and employment from 1983 to 2010, I find cumulative earnings losses of more than $20,000 five years after a layoff. Income losses are smaller, around 13 percent of pre-layoff income, and there is no evidence of an expenditure loss. Under a number of specifications, the data reveal higher savings in the years before a mass layoff among displaced workers than those in the same firm who keep their job, consistent with worker foresight about the idiosyncratic probability of losing their job. JEL Classification: J63, D91, E2

Optimasi Portofolio Resiko Menggunakan Model Markowitz MVO Dikaitkan dengan Keterbatasan Manusia dalam Memprediksi Masa Depan dalam Perspektif Al-Qur`an

Risk portfolio on modern finance has become increasingly technical, requiring the use of sophisticated mathematical tools in both research and practice. Since companies cannot insure themselves completely against risk, as human incompetence in predicting the future precisely that written in Al-Quran surah Luqman verse 34, they have to manage it to yield an optimal portfolio. The objective here is to minimize the variance among all portfolios, or alternatively, to maximize expected return among all portfolios that has at least a certain expected return. Furthermore, this study focuses on optimizing risk portfolio so called Markowitz MVO (Mean-Variance Optimization). Some theoretical frameworks for analysis are arithmetic mean, geometric mean, variance, covariance, linear programming, and quadratic programming. Moreover, finding a minimum variance portfolio produces a convex quadratic programming, that is minimizing the objective function ðð¥with constraintsð ð 𥠥 ðandð´ð¥ = ð. The outcome of this research is the solution of optimal risk portofolio in some investments that could be finished smoothly using MATLAB R2007b software together with its graphic analysis

Impacts of the Tropical Pacific/Indian Oceans on the Seasonal Cycle of the West African Monsoon

The current consensus is that drought has developed in the Sahel during the second half of the twentieth century as a result of remote effects of oceanic anomalies amplified by local land–atmosphere interactions. This paper focuses on the impacts of oceanic anomalies upon West African climate and specifically aims to identify those from SST anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Oceans during spring and summer seasons, when they were significant. Idealized sensitivity experiments are performed with four atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The prescribed SST patterns used in the AGCMs are based on the leading mode of covariability between SST anomalies over the Pacific/Indian Oceans and summer rainfall over West Africa. The results show that such oceanic anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Ocean lead to a northward shift of an anomalous dry belt from the Gulf of Guinea to the Sahel as the season advances. In the Sahel, the magnitude of rainfall anomalies is comparable to that obtained by other authors using SST anomalies confined to the proximity of the Atlantic Ocean. The mechanism connecting the Pacific/Indian SST anomalies with West African rainfall has a strong seasonal cycle. In spring (May and June), anomalous subsidence develops over both the Maritime Continent and the equatorial Atlantic in response to the enhanced equatorial heating. Precipitation increases over continental West Africa in association with stronger zonal convergence of moisture. In addition, precipitation decreases over the Gulf of Guinea. During the monsoon peak (July and August), the SST anomalies move westward over the equatorial Pacific and the two regions where subsidence occurred earlier in the seasons merge over West Africa. The monsoon weakens and rainfall decreases over the Sahel, especially in August.Peer reviewe

Search for heavy resonances decaying to two Higgs bosons in final states containing four b quarks

A search is presented for narrow heavy resonances X decaying into pairs of Higgs bosons (H) in proton-proton collisions collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC at root s = 8 TeV. The data correspond to an integrated luminosity of 19.7 fb(-1). The search considers HH resonances with masses between 1 and 3 TeV, having final states of two b quark pairs. Each Higgs boson is produced with large momentum, and the hadronization products of the pair of b quarks can usually be reconstructed as single large jets. The background from multijet and t (t) over bar events is significantly reduced by applying requirements related to the flavor of the jet, its mass, and its substructure. The signal would be identified as a peak on top of the dijet invariant mass spectrum of the remaining background events. No evidence is observed for such a signal. Upper limits obtained at 95 confidence level for the product of the production cross section and branching fraction sigma(gg -> X) B(X -> HH -> b (b) over barb (b) over bar) range from 10 to 1.5 fb for the mass of X from 1.15 to 2.0 TeV, significantly extending previous searches. For a warped extra dimension theory with amass scale Lambda(R) = 1 TeV, the data exclude radion scalar masses between 1.15 and 1.55 TeV

Search for supersymmetry in events with one lepton and multiple jets in proton-proton collisions at root s=13 TeV

Peer reviewe

Measurement of the top quark mass using charged particles in pp collisions at root s=8 TeV

Peer reviewe

Search for anomalous couplings in boosted WW/WZ -> l nu q(q)over-bar production in proton-proton collisions at root s=8TeV

Peer reviewe

Search for electroweak production of charginos and neutralinos in multilepton final states in proton-proton collisions at root s=13 TeV

Results are presented from a search for the direct electroweak production of charginos and neutralinos in signatures with either two or more leptons (electrons or muons) of the same electric charge, or with three or more leptons, which can include up to two hadronically decaying tau leptons. The results are based on a sample of protonproton collision data collected at p s = 13TeV, recorded with the CMS detector at the LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb1. The observed event yields are consistent with the expectations based on the standard model. The results are interpreted in simpli ed models of supersymmetry describing various scenarios for the production and decay of charginos and neutralinos. Depending on the model parameters chosen, mass values between 180GeV and 1150 GeV are excluded at 95% CL. These results signi cantly extend the parameter space probed for these particles in searches at the LHC. In addition, results are presented in a form suitable for alternative theoretical interpretations.Sponsoring Consortium for Open Access Publishing in Particle Physic