Anticipating Unemployment: Savings Evidence from Denmark * (Preliminary and Incomplete)

Abstract

Abstract This paper studies the savings behavior of workers faced with costly job loss. Using Danish administrative data on income, savings, and employment from 1983 to 2010, I find cumulative earnings losses of more than $20,000 five years after a layoff. Income losses are smaller, around 13 percent of pre-layoff income, and there is no evidence of an expenditure loss. Under a number of specifications, the data reveal higher savings in the years before a mass layoff among displaced workers than those in the same firm who keep their job, consistent with worker foresight about the idiosyncratic probability of losing their job. JEL Classification: J63, D91, E2

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