PRELIMINARY STUDIES OF BACKGROUND REJECTION CAPABILITIES FOR THE SOUTHERN WIDE−FIELD GAMMA−RAY OBSERVATORY

The Southern Wide-field Gamma-ray Observatory (SWGO), is a next-generationgamma-ray observatory to be constructed in the Southern Hemisphere that will com-plement current and future instruments by providing a wide-field coverage of a largeportion of the southern sky and a better sensitivity to the 100 GeVs to few PeVsphoton band to understand extreme astrophysical phenomena throughout the uni-verse. Air shower events initiated by gamma rays will be recorded by the detectorand reconstructed to extract shower properties. The challenge for air-shower arraysin the observation of gamma-ray sources is the large background of hadronic cos-mic rays. Thus, the identification and separation of this background is critical. Inthis report, I present a performance study of gamma-hadron separation parametersfor the SWGO observatory using simulation data a study with a specific parametersthat measures the smoothness of the footprint in the detector array was conductedand results achieved with a SWGO reference configuration were compared to resultsconfirmed with the High-Altitude Water Cherenkov(HAWC) Observatory

Real-time computing of power flows and node voltages in electrical energy network using decision trees

In sustainable operation of electrical energy network, it is necessary to compute in real-time power flows and voltages at nodes for prioritizing power injection from clean energy resources. Intermittent renewable energy sources are likely to create voltage and power balancing issues and to maintain the voltage security of electrical network, real-time information of network power flows and bus voltages are required accurately and instantaneously. This paper presents an approach based on decision trees (DT) for real-time estimation of power flows within the electrical energy network and node voltages. A single tree structure is built for estimation of discrete (or categorical) as well as continuous values of line flows and node voltages of each line and node separately. A simple binary decision tree (BDT) and regression tree (RT) are used for estimation of discrete values and continuous values respectively. The training and testing patterns are generated by performing power flow analysis on an electrical energy network. Once the DT is trained, it estimates the line power flows and bus voltages with desired accuracy. The accuracy of the DT model is tested on a typical IEEE 30-bus system, using test patterns. Result shows that mean absolute error in case of line flow estimation for line number 1 and 10 are found to be 0.0028 p. u. and 0.0017 p. u. Also mean absolute error in case of bus voltage estimation for bus number 3 and 10 are found to be 0.0019 p. u. and 0.0016 p. u. Above results are suggestive of instantaneous estimationwith desired accuracy of line flow and bus voltages, which is the need of the hour for sustainable electrical energy network with integration of cleaner energy resources.Since, DT gives instantaneous result therefore suitable for real-time applications in sustainable electrical energy management system.publishedVersio

Impact of nicotine replacement therapy as an adjunct to anti-tuberculosis treatment and behaviour change counselling in newly diagnosed pulmonary tuberculosis patients: an open-label, randomised controlled trial.

We evaluated the impact of intensive smoking cessation activities as an adjunct to anti-tuberculosis treatment on patient-related treatment outcomes. In this open-label, randomised controlled trial, self-reporting smokers with pulmonary tuberculosis who initiated standard anti-tuberculosis treatment were randomised to either nicotine replacement therapy and behaviour change counselling (n = 400) or counselling alone (n = 400) provided at baseline and two follow-up visits. The primary outcomes were change in TBscore at 24-weeks and culture conversion at 8-weeks. Biochemical smoking quit rates defined as serum cotinine levels <10 ng/mL and/or exhaled carbon monoxide levels <6 ppm (47·8% vs 32·4%, p-value =< 0·001) and self-reported quit rates (69.3% vs 38·7%, p-value =< 0·001) were significantly higher in the intervention arm at 24-weeks. Though the TBscores at 24 weeks (95% CI) were lower in the intervention arm [2·07 (1·98, 2·17) versus 2.12 (2·02, 2·21)], the difference was not clinically meaningful. Patients in the control arm required treatment extension more often than intervention arm (6·4% vs 2·6%, p-value = 0·02). Combining nicotine replacement therapy with behaviour change counselling resulted in significantly higher quit rates and lower cotinine levels, however, impact on patient-related (TBscore) or microbiological outcomes (culture conversion) were not seen

Bronchiectasis in India:results from the European Multicentre Bronchiectasis Audit and Research Collaboration (EMBARC) and Respiratory Research Network of India Registry

BACKGROUND: Bronchiectasis is a common but neglected chronic lung disease. Most epidemiological data are limited to cohorts from Europe and the USA, with few data from low-income and middle-income countries. We therefore aimed to describe the characteristics, severity of disease, microbiology, and treatment of patients with bronchiectasis in India. METHODS: The Indian bronchiectasis registry is a multicentre, prospective, observational cohort study. Adult patients ( 6518 years) with CT-confirmed bronchiectasis were enrolled from 31 centres across India. Patients with bronchiectasis due to cystic fibrosis or traction bronchiectasis associated with another respiratory disorder were excluded. Data were collected at baseline (recruitment) with follow-up visits taking place once per year. Comprehensive clinical data were collected through the European Multicentre Bronchiectasis Audit and Research Collaboration registry platform. Underlying aetiology of bronchiectasis, as well as treatment and risk factors for bronchiectasis were analysed in the Indian bronchiectasis registry. Comparisons of demographics were made with published European and US registries, and quality of care was benchmarked against the 2017 European Respiratory Society guidelines. FINDINGS: From June 1, 2015, to Sept 1, 2017, 2195 patients were enrolled. Marked differences were observed between India, Europe, and the USA. Patients in India were younger (median age 56 years [IQR 41-66] vs the European and US registries; p&lt;0\ub70001]) and more likely to be men (1249 [56\ub79%] of 2195). Previous tuberculosis (780 [35\ub75%] of 2195) was the most frequent underlying cause of bronchiectasis and Pseudomonas aeruginosa was the most common organism in sputum culture (301 [13\ub77%]) in India. Risk factors for exacerbations included being of the male sex (adjusted incidence rate ratio 1\ub717, 95% CI 1\ub703-1\ub732; p=0\ub7015), P aeruginosa infection (1\ub729, 1\ub710-1\ub750; p=0\ub7001), a history of pulmonary tuberculosis (1\ub720, 1\ub707-1\ub734; p=0\ub7002), modified Medical Research Council Dyspnoea score (1\ub732, 1\ub725-1\ub739; p&lt;0\ub70001), daily sputum production (1\ub716, 1\ub703-1\ub730; p=0\ub7013), and radiological severity of disease (1\ub703, 1\ub701-1\ub704; p&lt;0\ub70001). Low adherence to guideline-recommended care was observed; only 388 patients were tested for allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis and 82 patients had been tested for immunoglobulins. INTERPRETATION: Patients with bronchiectasis in India have more severe disease and have distinct characteristics from those reported in other countries. This study provides a benchmark to improve quality of care for patients with bronchiectasis in India. FUNDING: EU/European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations Innovative Medicines Initiative inhaled Antibiotics in Bronchiectasis and Cystic Fibrosis Consortium, European Respiratory Society, and the British Lung Foundation

Assessing performance of the Healthcare Access and Quality Index, overall and by select age groups, for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Health-care needs change throughout the life course. It is thus crucial to assess whether health systems provide access to quality health care for all ages. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019), we measured the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index overall and for select age groups in 204 locations from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We distinguished the overall HAQ Index (ages 0–74 years) from scores for select age groups: the young (ages 0–14 years), working (ages 15–64 years), and post-working (ages 65–74 years) groups. For GBD 2019, HAQ Index construction methods were updated to use the arithmetic mean of scaled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) and risk-standardised death rates (RSDRs) for 32 causes of death that should not occur in the presence of timely, quality health care. Across locations and years, MIRs and RSDRs were scaled from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) separately, putting the HAQ Index on a different relative scale for each age group. We estimated absolute convergence for each group on the basis of whether the HAQ Index grew faster in absolute terms between 1990 and 2019 in countries with lower 1990 HAQ Index scores than countries with higher 1990 HAQ Index scores and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. SDI is a summary metric of overall development. Findings: Between 1990 and 2019, the HAQ Index increased overall (by 19·6 points, 95% uncertainty interval 17·9–21·3), as well as among the young (22·5, 19·9–24·7), working (17·2, 15·2–19·1), and post-working (15·1, 13·2–17·0) age groups. Large differences in HAQ Index scores were present across SDI levels in 2019, with the overall index ranging from 30·7 (28·6–33·0) on average in low-SDI countries to 83·4 (82·4–84·3) on average in high-SDI countries. Similarly large ranges between low-SDI and high-SDI countries, respectively, were estimated in the HAQ Index for the young (40·4–89·0), working (33·8–82·8), and post-working (30·4–79·1) groups. Absolute convergence in HAQ Index was estimated in the young group only. In contrast, divergence was estimated among the working and post-working groups, driven by slow progress in low-SDI countries. Interpretation: Although major gaps remain across levels of social and economic development, convergence in the young group is an encouraging sign of reduced disparities in health-care access and quality. However, divergence in the working and post-working groups indicates that health-care access and quality is lagging at lower levels of social and economic development. To meet the needs of ageing populations, health systems need to improve health-care access and quality for working-age adults and older populations while continuing to realise gains among the young. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels. Methods We applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level. Findings In 2019, there were 12·2 million (95% UI 11·0–13·6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93·2–111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133–153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6·55 million (6·00–7·02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11·6% [10·8–12·2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5·7% [5·1–6·2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70·0% (67·0–73·0), prevalent strokes increased by 85·0% (83·0–88·0), deaths from stroke increased by 43·0% (31·0–55·0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32·0% (22·0–42·0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17·0% (15·0–18·0), mortality decreased by 36·0% (31·0–42·0), prevalence decreased by 6·0% (5·0–7·0), and DALYs decreased by 36·0% (31·0–42·0). However, among people younger than 70 years, prevalence rates increased by 22·0% (21·0–24·0) and incidence rates increased by 15·0% (12·0–18·0). In 2019, the age-standardised stroke-related mortality rate was 3·6 (3·5–3·8) times higher in the World Bank low-income group than in the World Bank high-income group, and the age-standardised stroke-related DALY rate was 3·7 (3·5–3·9) times higher in the low-income group than the high-income group. Ischaemic stroke constituted 62·4% of all incident strokes in 2019 (7·63 million [6·57–8·96]), while intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 27·9% (3·41 million [2·97–3·91]) and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 9·7% (1·18 million [1·01–1·39]). In 2019, the five leading risk factors for stroke were high systolic blood pressure (contributing to 79·6 million [67·7–90·8] DALYs or 55·5% [48·2–62·0] of total stroke DALYs), high body-mass index (34·9 million [22·3–48·6] DALYs or 24·3% [15·7–33·2]), high fasting plasma glucose (28·9 million [19·8–41·5] DALYs or 20·2% [13·8–29·1]), ambient particulate matter pollution (28·7 million [23·4–33·4] DALYs or 20·1% [16·6–23·0]), and smoking (25·3 million [22·6–28·2] DALYs or 17·6% [16·4–19·0]). Interpretation The annual number of strokes and deaths due to stroke increased substantially from 1990 to 2019, despite substantial reductions in age-standardised rates, particularly among people older than 70 years. The highest age-standardised stroke-related mortality and DALY rates were in the World Bank low-income group. The fastest-growing risk factor for stroke between 1990 and 2019 was high body-mass index. Without urgent implementation of effective primary prevention strategies, the stroke burden will probably continue to grow across the world, particularly in low-income countries.publishedVersio

New genetic loci link adipose and insulin biology to body fat distribution.

Body fat distribution is a heritable trait and a well-established predictor of adverse metabolic outcomes, independent of overall adiposity. To increase our understanding of the genetic basis of body fat distribution and its molecular links to cardiometabolic traits, here we conduct genome-wide association meta-analyses of traits related to waist and hip circumferences in up to 224,459 individuals. We identify 49 loci (33 new) associated with waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index (BMI), and an additional 19 loci newly associated with related waist and hip circumference measures (P < 5 × 10(-8)). In total, 20 of the 49 waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI loci show significant sexual dimorphism, 19 of which display a stronger effect in women. The identified loci were enriched for genes expressed in adipose tissue and for putative regulatory elements in adipocytes. Pathway analyses implicated adipogenesis, angiogenesis, transcriptional regulation and insulin resistance as processes affecting fat distribution, providing insight into potential pathophysiological mechanisms

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND: Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021. METHODS: We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined. FINDINGS: Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378–521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20–3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5–45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7–26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6–38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5–32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7–2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer. INTERPRETATION: As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2\ub75th percentile and 100 as the 97\ub75th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59\ub74 (IQR 35\ub74–67\ub73), ranging from a low of 11\ub76 (95% uncertainty interval 9\ub76–14\ub70) to a high of 84\ub79 (83\ub71–86\ub77). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030