Application of machine learning techniques to support decision making under uncertainty in water resource management

Water companies in the UK are required to produce long-term plans of water resources for their supply area every five years, detailing how they will maintain secure, sustainable supplies , taking account of social and environmental impacts as well as economic costs. Extensive ensemble modelling of water resource systems underpins the production of these reports and the resulting investments chosen to maintain supplies into the future. Adoption of new guidance on the use of advanced Decision Making Methods (DMMs) and Risk Based Planning has demanded a more comprehensive modelling approach. Modelling and analytical efficiencies are increasingly required for their use and to realise their full benefits. Existing water resources, hydrological, groundwater, and demand models traditionally used by water companies are often not ideally suited for use in these DMMs. Consequently a toolset of approaches is evolving to enable UK water companies to undertake this more complex decision making. Key elements of this toolset include emulation modelling to complement computationally more expensive process models, machine learning techniques for groundwater assessment and to optimise reservoir control curves considering multiple objectives, and agent based models to explore the spatial and temporal pattern of demand over ensembles of plausible futures. These methods support the rapid simulation times required for applying the DMMs to provide a holistic view of system behaviour under large supply-side, demand-side and policy uncertainties. User-friendly tools and dashboards are being used to explore and communicate the outputs and facilitate effective decision-making, involving all stakeholders. This toolset of approaches is being increasingly adopted in the UK, demonstrating the potential for innovative methods to interpret and present complex modelling results. Due to the flexible structure of the tools, and the generic approaches used, these techniques can readily be applied to a wide range of settings. However, the absence of physical process representation in some of these methods, and associated implications, must be considered in their application and by planners when interpreting results. Methods in themselves are not a replacement for diligent water planning, but a tool to support it

Dust detection by the wave instrument on STEREO: nanoparticles picked up by the solar wind?

The STEREO/WAVES instrument has detected a very large number of intense voltage pulses. We suggest that these events are produced by impact ionisation of nanoparticles striking the spacecraft at a velocity of the order of magnitude of the solar wind speed. Nanoparticles, which are half-way between micron-sized dust and atomic ions, have such a large charge-to-mass ratio that the electric field induced by the solar wind magnetic field accelerates them very efficiently. Since the voltage produced by dust impacts increases very fast with speed, such nanoparticles produce signals as high as do much larger grains of smaller speeds. The flux of 10-nm radius grains inferred in this way is compatible with the interplanetary dust flux model. The present results may represent the first detection of fast nanoparticles in interplanetary space near Earth orbit.Comment: In press in Solar Physics, 13 pages, 5 figure

VLA resolves unexpected radio structures in the Perseus Cluster of galaxies

High Energy Astrophysic

Fate of biosolids trace metals in a dryland wheat agroecosystem

Biosolids land application for beneficial reuse applies varying amounts of trace metals to soils. Measuring plant-available or total soil metals is typically performed to ensure environmental protection, but these techniques do not quantify which soil phases play important roles in terms of metal release or attenuation. This study assessed the distribution of Cd, Cr, Cu, Mo, Ni, Pb, and Zn associated with soluble/exchangeable, specifically adsorbed/carbonate-bound, amorphous Mn hydroxyoxide-bound, amorphous Fe hydroxyoxide–bound, organically complexed, and residual inorganic phases. Biosolids were applied every 2 yr from 1982 to 2002 (except in 1998) at rates of 0, 6.7, 13.4, 26.8, and 40.3 dry Mg biosolids ha?1 to 3.6- by 17.1-m plots. In 2003, 0- to 20-cm and 20- to 60-cm soil depths were collected and subjected to 4 mol L?1 HNO3 digestion and sequential extraction. Trace metals were concentrated in the 0- to 20-cm depth, with no significant observable downward movement using 4 mol L?1 HNO3 or sequential extraction. The sequential extraction showed nearly all measurable Cd present in relatively mobile forms and Cr, Cu, Mo, Ni, Pb, and Zn present in more resistant phases. Biosolids application did not affect Cd or Cr fractionation but did increase relatively immobile Cu, Mo, and Zn phases and relatively mobile Cu, Ni, and Pb pools. The mobile phases have not contributed to significant downward metal movement. Long-term, repeated biosolids applications at rates considered several times greater than agronomic levels should not significantly contribute to downward metal transport and ground water contamination for soils under similar climatic conditions, agronomic practices, and histories

State of the climate in 2013

In 2013, the vast majority of the monitored climate variables reported here maintained trends established in recent decades. ENSO was in a neutral state during the entire year, remaining mostly on the cool side of neutral with modest impacts on regional weather patterns around the world. This follows several years dominated by the effects of either La Niña or El Niño events. According to several independent analyses, 2013 was again among the 10 warmest years on record at the global scale, both at the Earths surface and through the troposphere. Some regions in the Southern Hemisphere had record or near-record high temperatures for the year. Australia observed its hottest year on record, while Argentina and New Zealand reported their second and third hottest years, respectively. In Antarctica, Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station reported its highest annual temperature since records began in 1957. At the opposite pole, the Arctic observed its seventh warmest year since records began in the early 20th century. At 20-m depth, record high temperatures were measured at some permafrost stations on the North Slope of Alaska and in the Brooks Range. In the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, anomalous meridional atmospheric circulation occurred throughout much of the year, leading to marked regional extremes of both temperature and precipitation. Cold temperature anomalies during winter across Eurasia were followed by warm spring temperature anomalies, which were linked to a new record low Eurasian snow cover extent in May. Minimum sea ice extent in the Arctic was the sixth lowest since satellite observations began in 1979. Including 2013, all seven lowest extents on record have occurred in the past seven years. Antarctica, on the other hand, had above-average sea ice extent throughout 2013, with 116 days of new daily high extent records, including a new daily maximum sea ice area of 19.57 million km2 reached on 1 October. ENSO-neutral conditions in the eastern central Pacific Ocean and a negative Pacific decadal oscillation pattern in the North Pacific had the largest impacts on the global sea surface temperature in 2013. The North Pacific reached a historic high temperature in 2013 and on balance the globally-averaged sea surface temperature was among the 10 highest on record. Overall, the salt content in nearsurface ocean waters increased while in intermediate waters it decreased. Global mean sea level continued to rise during 2013, on pace with a trend of 3.2 mm yr-1 over the past two decades. A portion of this trend (0.5 mm yr-1) has been attributed to natural variability associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation as well as to ongoing contributions from the melting of glaciers and ice sheets and ocean warming. Global tropical cyclone frequency during 2013 was slightly above average with a total of 94 storms, although the North Atlantic Basin had its quietest hurricane season since 1994. In the Western North Pacific Basin, Super Typhoon Haiyan, the deadliest tropical cyclone of 2013, had 1-minute sustained winds estimated to be 170 kt (87.5 m s-1) on 7 November, the highest wind speed ever assigned to a tropical cyclone. High storm surge was also associated with Haiyan as it made landfall over the central Philippines, an area where sea level is currently at historic highs, increasing by 200 mm since 1970. In the atmosphere, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide all continued to increase in 2013. As in previous years, each of these major greenhouse gases once again reached historic high concentrations. In the Arctic, carbon dioxide and methane increased at the same rate as the global increase. These increases are likely due to export from lower latitudes rather than a consequence of increases in Arctic sources, such as thawing permafrost. At Mauna Loa, Hawaii, for the first time since measurements began in 1958, the daily average mixing ratio of carbon dioxide exceeded 400 ppm on 9 May. The state of these variables, along with dozens of others, and the 2013 climate conditions of regions around the world are discussed in further detail in this 24th edition of the State of the Climate series. © 2014, American Meteorological Society. All rights reserved

Galaxy Clusters Associated with Short GRBs. II. Predictions for the Rate of Short GRBs in Field and Cluster Early-Type Galaxies

We determine the relative rates of short GRBs in cluster and field early-type galaxies as a function of the age probability distribution of their progenitors, P(\tau) \propto \tau^n. This analysis takes advantage of the difference in the growth of stellar mass in clusters and in the field, which arises from the combined effects of the galaxy stellar mass function, the early-type fraction, and the dependence of star formation history on mass and environment. This approach complements the use of the early- to late-type host galaxy ratio, with the added benefit that the star formation histories of early-type galaxies are simpler than those of late-type galaxies, and any systematic differences between progenitors in early- and late-type galaxies are removed. We find that the ratio varies from R(cluster)/R(field) ~ 0.5 for n = -2 to ~ 3 for n = 2. Current observations indicate a ratio of about 2, corresponding to n ~ 0 - 1. This is similar to the value inferred from the ratio of short GRBs in early- and late-type hosts, but it differs from the value of n ~ -1 for NS binaries in the Milky Way. We stress that this general approach can be easily modified with improved knowledge of the effects of environment and mass on the build-up of stellar mass, as well as the effect of globular clusters on the short GRB rate. It can also be used to assess the age distribution of Type Ia supernova progenitors.Comment: ApJ accepted versio

Comprehensive analysis of epigenetic clocks reveals associations between disproportionate biological ageing and hippocampal volume

The concept of age acceleration, the difference between biological age and chronological age, is of growing interest, particularly with respect to age-related disorders, such as Alzheimer’s Disease (AD). Whilst studies have reported associations with AD risk and related phenotypes, there remains a lack of consensus on these associations. Here we aimed to comprehensively investigate the relationship between five recognised measures of age acceleration, based on DNA methylation patterns (DNAm age), and cross-sectional and longitudinal cognition and AD-related neuroimaging phenotypes (volumetric MRI and Amyloid-β PET) in the Australian Imaging, Biomarkers and Lifestyle (AIBL) and the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). Significant associations were observed between age acceleration using the Hannum epigenetic clock and cross-sectional hippocampal volume in AIBL and replicated in ADNI. In AIBL, several other findings were observed cross-sectionally, including a significant association between hippocampal volume and the Hannum and Phenoage epigenetic clocks. Further, significant associations were also observed between hippocampal volume and the Zhang and Phenoage epigenetic clocks within Amyloid-β positive individuals. However, these were not validated within the ADNI cohort. No associations between age acceleration and other Alzheimer’s disease-related phenotypes, including measures of cognition or brain Amyloid-β burden, were observed, and there was no association with longitudinal change in any phenotype. This study presents a link between age acceleration, as determined using DNA methylation, and hippocampal volume that was statistically significant across two highly characterised cohorts. The results presented in this study contribute to a growing literature that supports the role of epigenetic modifications in ageing and AD-related phenotypes

Search for leptophobic Z ' bosons decaying into four-lepton final states in proton-proton collisions at root s=8 TeV

Peer reviewe

Search for black holes and other new phenomena in high-multiplicity final states in proton-proton collisions at root s=13 TeV

Peer reviewe

Search for heavy resonances decaying into a vector boson and a Higgs boson in final states with charged leptons, neutrinos, and b quarks

Peer reviewe