The Fossil Endgame: Strategic Oil Price Discrimination and Carbon Taxation

This paper analyzes how fossil fuel-producing countries can counteract climate policy. We analyze the exhaustion of oil resources and the subsequent transition to a backstop technology as a strategic game between the consumers and producers of oil, which we refer to simply as “OECD” and “OPEC,” respectively. The consumers, OECD, derive benefits from oil, but worry about climate effects from carbon dioxide emissions. OECD has two instruments to manage this: it can tax fuel consumption and decide when to switch to a carbon-neutral backstop technology. The tax reduces climate damage and also appropriates some of the resource rent. OPEC retaliates by choosing a strategy of price discrimination, subsidizing oil in its domestic markets. The results show that price discrimination enables OPEC to avoid some of the adverse consequences of OECD’s fuel tax and its switch to the backstop technology by consuming a larger share of the oil in its own domestic markets. Our results suggest that persuading fossil exporters to stop subsidizing domestic consumption will be difficult.dynamic games, stock externalities, carbon tax, non-renewable resources, energy subsidies

THE "FREELY" FALLING TWO-LEVEL ATOM IN A RUNNING LASER WAVE

The time evolution of a two-level atom which is simultaneously exposed to the field of a running laser wave and a homogeneous gravitational field is studied. The result of the coupled dynamics of internal transitions and center-of-mass motion is worked out exactly. Neglecting spontaneous emission and performing the rotating wave approximation we derive the complete time evolution operator in an algebraical way by using commutation relations. The result is discussed with respect to the physical implications. In particular the long time and short time behaviour is physically analyzed in detail. The breakdown of the Magnus perturbation expansion is shown.Comment: 14 Pages, Late

COVID-19: guidance on palliative care from a European Respiratory Society international task force

Copyright ©ERS 2020. BACKGROUND: Many people are dying from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but consensus guidance on palliative care in COVID-19 is lacking. This new life-threatening disease has put healthcare systems under pressure, with the increased need of palliative care provided to many patients by clinicians who have limited prior experience in this field. Therefore, we aimed to make consensus recommendations for palliative care for patients with COVID-19 using the Convergence of Opinion on Recommendations and Evidence (CORE) process. METHODS: We invited 90 international experts to complete an online survey including stating their agreement, or not, with 14 potential recommendations. At least 70% agreement on directionality was needed to provide consensus recommendations. If consensus was not achieved on the first round, a second round was conducted. RESULTS: 68 (75.6%) experts responded in the first round. Most participants were experts in palliative care, respiratory medicine or critical care medicine. In the first round, consensus was achieved on 13 recommendations based upon indirect evidence and clinical experience. In the second round, 58 (85.3%) out of 68 of the first-round experts responded, resulting in consensus for the 14th recommendation. CONCLUSION: This multi-national task force provides consensus recommendations for palliative care for patients with COVID-19 concerning: advance care planning; (pharmacological) palliative treatment of breathlessness; clinician-patient communication; remote clinician-family communication; palliative care involvement in patients with serious COVID-19; spiritual care; psychosocial care; and bereavement care. Future studies are needed to generate empirical evidence for these recommendations

Theory and computation of covariant Lyapunov vectors

Lyapunov exponents are well-known characteristic numbers that describe growth rates of perturbations applied to a trajectory of a dynamical system in different state space directions. Covariant (or characteristic) Lyapunov vectors indicate these directions. Though the concept of these vectors has been known for a long time, they became practically computable only recently due to algorithms suggested by Ginelli et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 99, 2007, 130601] and by Wolfe and Samelson [Tellus 59A, 2007, 355]. In view of the great interest in covariant Lyapunov vectors and their wide range of potential applications, in this article we summarize the available information related to Lyapunov vectors and provide a detailed explanation of both the theoretical basics and numerical algorithms. We introduce the notion of adjoint covariant Lyapunov vectors. The angles between these vectors and the original covariant vectors are norm-independent and can be considered as characteristic numbers. Moreover, we present and study in detail an improved approach for computing covariant Lyapunov vectors. Also we describe, how one can test for hyperbolicity of chaotic dynamics without explicitly computing covariant vectors.Comment: 21 pages, 5 figure

Search for the Kπ=1+ two-proton band in Er166

The Ho165 (α,t) and (3He,d) reactions have been measured at beam energies of 40 and 25 MeV to look for the Kπ=1+{9/2-[514]-7/2-[523]} two-proton band structure in Er166. Reaction products were analyzed using a quadrupole-three-dipole spectrometer. Distorted-wave Born approximation predictions were used to extract candidate states with angular momentum transfer l=5. The measured strengths of all the candidates for l=5 transitions were compared with the Nilsson fingerprint pattern of the Kπ=1+{9/2-[514]-7/2- [523]} band to identify the structure. No strong population of this configuration was found. At best two tentative candidates for the Iπ=3+ and 4+ members of this band could be identified, which would represent at most 38% of the expected strength for this configuration. The bandhead for this tentative Kπ=1+ excitation does not correspond to any Iπ=1+ state observed in the Er166(γ,γ') reaction

The Magnus expansion and some of its applications

Approximate resolution of linear systems of differential equations with varying coefficients is a recurrent problem shared by a number of scientific and engineering areas, ranging from Quantum Mechanics to Control Theory. When formulated in operator or matrix form, the Magnus expansion furnishes an elegant setting to built up approximate exponential representations of the solution of the system. It provides a power series expansion for the corresponding exponent and is sometimes referred to as Time-Dependent Exponential Perturbation Theory. Every Magnus approximant corresponds in Perturbation Theory to a partial re-summation of infinite terms with the important additional property of preserving at any order certain symmetries of the exact solution. The goal of this review is threefold. First, to collect a number of developments scattered through half a century of scientific literature on Magnus expansion. They concern the methods for the generation of terms in the expansion, estimates of the radius of convergence of the series, generalizations and related non-perturbative expansions. Second, to provide a bridge with its implementation as generator of especial purpose numerical integration methods, a field of intense activity during the last decade. Third, to illustrate with examples the kind of results one can expect from Magnus expansion in comparison with those from both perturbative schemes and standard numerical integrators. We buttress this issue with a revision of the wide range of physical applications found by Magnus expansion in the literature.Comment: Report on the Magnus expansion for differential equations and its applications to several physical problem

Application of non-HDL cholesterol for population-based cardiovascular risk stratification: results from the Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium.

BACKGROUND: The relevance of blood lipid concentrations to long-term incidence of cardiovascular disease and the relevance of lipid-lowering therapy for cardiovascular disease outcomes is unclear. We investigated the cardiovascular disease risk associated with the full spectrum of bloodstream non-HDL cholesterol concentrations. We also created an easy-to-use tool to estimate the long-term probabilities for a cardiovascular disease event associated with non-HDL cholesterol and modelled its risk reduction by lipid-lowering treatment. METHODS: In this risk-evaluation and risk-modelling study, we used Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium data from 19 countries across Europe, Australia, and North America. Individuals without prevalent cardiovascular disease at baseline and with robust available data on cardiovascular disease outcomes were included. The primary composite endpoint of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease was defined as the occurrence of the coronary heart disease event or ischaemic stroke. Sex-specific multivariable analyses were computed using non-HDL cholesterol categories according to the European guideline thresholds, adjusted for age, sex, cohort, and classical modifiable cardiovascular risk factors. In a derivation and validation design, we created a tool to estimate the probabilities of a cardiovascular disease event by the age of 75 years, dependent on age, sex, and risk factors, and the associated modelled risk reduction, assuming a 50% reduction of non-HDL cholesterol. FINDINGS: Of the 524 444 individuals in the 44 cohorts in the Consortium database, we identified 398 846 individuals belonging to 38 cohorts (184 055 [48·7%] women; median age 51·0 years [IQR 40·7-59·7]). 199 415 individuals were included in the derivation cohort (91 786 [48·4%] women) and 199 431 (92 269 [49·1%] women) in the validation cohort. During a maximum follow-up of 43·6 years (median 13·5 years, IQR 7·0-20·1), 54 542 cardiovascular endpoints occurred. Incidence curve analyses showed progressively higher 30-year cardiovascular disease event-rates for increasing non-HDL cholesterol categories (from 7·7% for non-HDL cholesterol <2·6 mmol/L to 33·7% for ≥5·7 mmol/L in women and from 12·8% to 43·6% in men; p<0·0001). Multivariable adjusted Cox models with non-HDL cholesterol lower than 2·6 mmol/L as reference showed an increase in the association between non-HDL cholesterol concentration and cardiovascular disease for both sexes (from hazard ratio 1·1, 95% CI 1·0-1·3 for non-HDL cholesterol 2·6 to <3·7 mmol/L to 1·9, 1·6-2·2 for ≥5·7 mmol/L in women and from 1·1, 1·0-1·3 to 2·3, 2·0-2·5 in men). The derived tool allowed the estimation of cardiovascular disease event probabilities specific for non-HDL cholesterol with high comparability between the derivation and validation cohorts as reflected by smooth calibration curves analyses and a root mean square error lower than 1% for the estimated probabilities of cardiovascular disease. A 50% reduction of non-HDL cholesterol concentrations was associated with reduced risk of a cardiovascular disease event by the age of 75 years, and this risk reduction was greater the earlier cholesterol concentrations were reduced. INTERPRETATION: Non-HDL cholesterol concentrations in blood are strongly associated with long-term risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. We provide a simple tool for individual long-term risk assessment and the potential benefit of early lipid-lowering intervention. These data could be useful for physician-patient communication about primary prevention strategies. FUNDING: EU Framework Programme, UK Medical Research Council, and German Centre for Cardiovascular Research

Molecular characterization of irinotecan (SN-38) resistant human breast cancer cell lines

Background: Studies in taxane and/or anthracycline refractory metastatic breast cancer (mBC) patients have shown approximately 30% response rates to irinotecan. Hence, a significant number of patients will experience irinotecan-induced side effects without obtaining any benefit. The aim of this study was to lay the groundwork for development of predictive biomarkers for irinotecan treatment in BC. Methods: We established BC cell lines with acquired or de novo resistance to SN-38, by exposing the human BC cell lines MCF-7 and MDA-MB-231 to either stepwise increasing concentrations over 6months or an initial high dose of SN-38 (the active metabolite of irinotecan), respectively. The resistant cell lines were analyzed for cross-resistance to other anti-cancer drugs, global gene expression, growth rates, TOP1 and TOP2A gene copy numbers and protein expression, and inhibition of the breast cancer resistance protein (ABCG2/BCRP) drug efflux pump. Results: We found that the resistant cell lines showed 7-100 fold increased resistance to SN-38 but remained sensitive to docetaxel and the non-camptothecin Top1 inhibitor LMP400. The resistant cell lines were characterized by Top1 down-regulation, changed isoelectric points of Top1 and reduced growth rates. The gene and protein expression of ABCG2/BCRP was up-regulated in the resistant sub-lines and functional assays revealed BCRP as a key mediator of SN-38 resistance. Conclusions: Based on our preclinical results, we suggest analyzing the predictive value of the BCRP in breast cancer patients scheduled for irinotecan treatment. Moreover, LMP400 should be tested in a clinical setting in breast cancer patients with resistance to irinotecan

On sense and reference: examining the functional neuroanatomy of referential processing

In an event-related fMRI study, we examined the cortical networks involved in establishing. reference during language comprehension. We compared BOLD responses to sentences containing referentially ambiguous pronouns (e.g., "Ronald told Frank that he..."), referentially failing pronouns (e.g., "Rose told Emily that he...") or coherent pronouns. Referential ambiguity selectively recruited media[ prefrontal regions, suggesting that readers engaged in problemsolving to select a unique referent from the discourse model. Referential failure elicited activation increases in brain regions associated with mo rp ho -syntactic processing, and, for those readers who took failing pronouns to refer to unmentioned entities, additional regions associated with elaborative inferencing were observed. The networks activated by these two referential problems did not overlap with the network activated by a standard semantic anomaly. Instead, we observed a double dissociation, in that the systems activated by semantic anomaly are deactivated by referential ambiguity, and vice versa. This inverse coupling may reflect the dynamic recruitment of semantic and episodic processing to resolve semantically or referentially problematic situations. More generally, our findings suggest that neurocognitive accounts of language comprehension need to address not just how we parse a sentence and combine individual word meanings, but also how we determine who's who and what's what during language COmprehension. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved

Interpregnancy intervals and adverse birth outcomes in high-income countries: an international cohort study

Published: July 19, 2021Background: Most evidence for interpregnancy interval (IPI) and adverse birth outcomes come from studies that are prone to incomplete control for confounders that vary between women. Comparing pregnancies to the same women can address this issue.Methods: We conducted an international longitudinal cohort study of 5,521,211 births to 3,849,193 women from Australia (1980–2016), Finland (1987–2017), Norway (1980–2016) and the United States (California) (1991–2012). IPI was calculated based on the time difference between two dates—the date of birth of the first pregnancy and the date of conception of the next (index) pregnancy. We estimated associations between IPI and preterm birth (PTB), spontaneous PTB, and small-for-gestational age births (SGA) using logistic regression (between-women analyses). We also used conditional logistic regression comparing IPIs and birth outcomes in the same women (within-women analyses). Random effects meta-analysis was used to calculate pooled adjusted odds ratios (aOR). Results: Compared to an IPI of 18–23 months, there was insufficient evidence for an association between IPI 24 month IPIs. Conclusions: We found consistently elevated odds of adverse birth outcomes following long IPIs. IPI shorter than 6 months were associated with elevated risk of spontaneous PTB, but there was insufficient evidence for increased risk of other adverse birth outcomes. Current recommendations of waiting at least 24 months to conceive after a previous pregnancy, may be unnecessarily long in high-income countries.Gizachew A. Tessema, M. Luke Marinovich, Siri E. Håberg, Mika Gissler, Jonathan A. Mayo, Natasha Nassar ... et al