Piecewise smooth systems near a co-dimension 2 discontinuity manifold: can one say what should happen?

We consider a piecewise smooth system in the neighborhood of a co-dimension 2 discontinuity manifold $\Sigma$. Within the class of Filippov solutions, if $\Sigma$ is attractive, one should expect solution trajectories to slide on $\Sigma$. It is well known, however, that the classical Filippov convexification methodology is ambiguous on $\Sigma$. The situation is further complicated by the possibility that, regardless of how sliding on $\Sigma$ is taking place, during sliding motion a trajectory encounters so-called generic first order exit points, where $\Sigma$ ceases to be attractive. In this work, we attempt to understand what behavior one should expect of a solution trajectory near $\Sigma$ when $\Sigma$ is attractive, what to expect when $\Sigma$ ceases to be attractive (at least, at generic exit points), and finally we also contrast and compare the behavior of some regularizations proposed in the literature. Through analysis and experiments we will confirm some known facts, and provide some important insight: (i) when $\Sigma$ is attractive, a solution trajectory indeed does remain near $\Sigma$, viz. sliding on $\Sigma$ is an appropriate idealization (of course, in general, one cannot predict which sliding vector field should be selected); (ii) when $\Sigma$ loses attractivity (at first order exit conditions), a typical solution trajectory leaves a neighborhood of $\Sigma$; (iii) there is no obvious way to regularize the system so that the regularized trajectory will remain near $\Sigma$ as long as $\Sigma$ is attractive, and so that it will be leaving (a neighborhood of) $\Sigma$ when $\Sigma$ looses attractivity. We reach the above conclusions by considering exclusively the given piecewise smooth system, without superimposing any assumption on what kind of dynamics near $\Sigma$ (or sliding motion on $\Sigma$) should have been taking place.Comment: 19 figure

A simple model of a speculative housing market

We develop a simple model of a speculative housing market in which the demand for houses is influenced by expectations about future housing prices. Guided by empirical evidence, agents rely on extrapolative and regressive forecasting rules to form their expectations. The relative importance of these competing views evolves over time, subject to market circumstances. As it turns out, the dynamics of our model is driven by a two-dimensional nonlinear map which may display irregular boom and bust housing price cycles, as repeatedly observed in many actual markets. However, we also find that speculation may be a source of both stability and instability. --Housing markets,Speculation,Boom and bust cycles,Nonlinear Dynamics

On the inherent instability of international financial markets: Natural nonlinear interactions between stock and foreign exchange markets

We develop a novel financial market model in which the stock markets of two countries are linked via and with the foreign exchange market. To be precise, there are domestic and foreign speculators in each of the two stock markets which rely either on linear technical or linear fundamental trading strategies to determine their orders. Since foreign stock market speculators require foreign currency to conduct their trades, all three markets are connected. Our setup entails a natural nonlinearity which may cause persistent endogenous price dynamics. Moreover, we analytically show that market interactions can destabilize the model's fundamental steady state. --Stock prices,exchange rates,market stability,technical and fundamental analysis,nonlinear market interactions,endogenous dynamics

Asset Price and Wealth Dynamics in a Financial Market with Heterogeneous Agents

This paper considers a discrete-time model of a financial market with one risky asset and one risk-free asset, where the asset price and wealth dynamics are determined by the interaction of two groups of agents, fundamentalits and chartists. In each period each group allocates its wealth between the risky asset and the safe asset according to myopic expected utility maximization, but the two groups have heterogeneous beliefs about the price change over the next period: the chartists are trend extrapolators, while the fundamentalists expect that the price will return to the fundamental. We assume that investors have CRRA utility, so that their optimal demand for the risky asset depends on wealth. A market maker is assumed to adjust the price at the end of each trading period, on the basis of the excess demand and according to particular stabilization policies. The model results in a three-dimensional nonlinear discrete-time dynamical system, with growing price and wealth processes, but it is reduced to a stationary system in terms of asset returns and wealth shares of the two groups. It is shown that the long-run market dynamics are highly dependent on the parameters which characterize agents' behavior (in particular the risk aversion coefficient and the chartist extrapolation parameter) as well as on the initial condition (in particular the initial wealth shares of fundamentalists and chartists). It is also shown that the for wide ranges of the parameters a (locally) stable fundamental steady state may coexist with a stable "nonfundamental" steady state, where price grows faster than the fundamental and only chartists survive in the long-run. In such cases, the role played by the initial condition is analysed by means of numerical investigations and graphical representation of the basins of attraction. Other dynamic scenarios include limit cycles, periodic orbits or more complex attractors, where in general both types of agents survive in the long run, with time varying wealth fractions.heterogeneous agents; financial market dynamics; wealth dynamics; coexisting attractors

A Dynamic Analysis of Speculation Across Two Markets

A discrete time model of a financial market is proposed, where the time evolution of asset prices and wealth arises from the interaction of two groups of agents, fundamentalists and chartists. Each group allocates its wealth between a risky asset (stock) and an alternative asset (bond), and the two groups have heterogeneous expectations about returns. We assume that chartists compute expected returns by extrapolating past price changes, while fundamentalists form their expectations on the basis of their superior knowledge of fundamentals. Under the assumption that agents have CRRA utility, investors' optimal demand for each asset depends on their wealth, and this results in growing price and wealth processes. The time evolution of the prices is modeled by assuming the existence of a market maker, who sets excess demand of each asset to zero at the end of each trading period by taking an off-setting long or short position. The market maker is assumed to adjust the price, in each period, partly on the basis of the excess demand and partly according to a particular market stabilization policy. The model is reduced to a high dimensional nonlinear discrete-time dynamical system with growing prices and wealth. Although the model is nonstationary, suitable changes of variables lead to a stationary model where the dynamic variables are actual and expected returns, fundamental/price ratios, and wealth proportions of chartists and fundamentalists. The steady states and other invariant sets of the model are determined, and important global dynamic phenomena are studied via numerical techniques. Stochastic simulations are also performed, that show the ability of the model to generate some of the characteristic features of financial time series.

Aggregation of Heterogeneous Beliefs and Asset Pricing: A Mean-Variance Analysis

The aim of this paper is to show, within the mean-variance framework, how the market belief can be constructed as the result of the aggregation of heterogeneous beliefs and how the market equilibrium prices of risky assets can thus be determined. The heterogeneous beliefs are defined in terms of not only the means but also variances and covariances. By constructing the mean and variance of the market belief, we analyze the impact of the heterogeneous beliefs on the market equilibrium asset pricing relation. In particular, we extend the standard CAPM under homogenous beliefs to the one under the heterogeneous beliefs.Mean variance analysis, heterogeneous beliefs, aggregation, asset pricing

A Framework for CAPM with Heterogenous Beliefs

We introduce heterogeneous beliefs in to the mean-variance framework of the standard CAPM, in contrast to the standard approach which assumes homogeneous beliefs. By assuming that agents form optimal portfolios based upon their heterogeneous beliefs about conditional means and covariances of the risky asset returns, we set up a framework for the CAPM that incorporates the heterogeneous beliefs when the market is in equilibrium. In this framework we first construct a consensus belief (with respect to the means and covariances of the risky asset returns) to represent the aggregate market belief when the market is in equilibrium. We then extend the analysis to a repeated one-period set-up and establish a framework for a dynamic CAPM using a market fraction model in which agents are grouped according to their beliefs. The exact relation between heterogeneous beliefs, the market equilibrium returns and the ex-ante beta-coeffcients is obtained. CAPM and Heterogeneous beliefs.

Fundamental and non-fundamental equilibria in the foreign exchange market. A behavioural framework.

Equilibrium; Exchange; Foreign exchange; Framework; Market; Working;