smokeSALUD: exploring the effect of demographic change on the smoking prevalence at municipality level in Austria

Background: Reducing the smoking population is still high on the policy agenda, as smoking leads to many preventable diseases, such as lung cancer, heart disease, diabetes, and more. In Austria, data on smoking prevalence only exists at the federal state level. This provides an interesting overview about the current health situation, but for regional planning authorities these data are often insufficient as they can hide pockets of high and low smoking prevalence in certain municipalities. Methods: This paper presents a spatial-temporal change of estimated smokers for municipalities from 2001 and 2011. A synthetic dataset of smokers is built by combining individual large-scale survey data and small area census data using a deterministic spatial microsimulation approach. Statistical analysis, including chi-square test and binary logistic regression, are applied to find the best variables 24 for the simulation model and to validate its results. Results: As no easy-to-use spatial microsimulation software for non-programmers is available yet, a flexible web-based spatial microsimulation application for health decision support (called simSALUD) has been developed and used for these analyses. The results of the simulation show in general a decrease of smoking prevalence within municipalities between 2001 and 2011 and 29 differences within areas are identified. These results are especially valuable to policy decision makers for future planning strategies. Conclusions: This case study shows the application of smokeSALUD to model the spatial-temporal changes in the smoking population in Austria between 2001 and 2011. This is important as no data on smoking exists at this geographical scale (municipality). However, spatial microsimulation models are useful tools to estimate small area health data and to overcome these problems. The simulations and analysis should support health decision makers to identify hot spots of smokers and this should 36 help to show where to spend health resources best in order to reduce health inequalities

The Regge Limit for Green Functions in Conformal Field Theory

We define a Regge limit for off-shell Green functions in quantum field theory, and study it in the particular case of conformal field theories (CFT). Our limit differs from that defined in arXiv:0801.3002, the latter being only a particular corner of the Regge regime. By studying the limit for free CFTs, we are able to reproduce the Low-Nussinov, BFKL approach to the pomeron at weak coupling. The dominance of Feynman graphs where only two high momentum lines are exchanged in the t-channel, follows simply from the free field analysis. We can then define the BFKL kernel in terms of the two point function of a simple light-like bilocal operator. We also include a brief discussion of the gravity dual predictions for the Regge limit at strong coupling.Comment: 23 pages 2 figures, v2: Clarification of relation of the Regge limit defined here and previous work in CFT. Clarification of causal orderings in the limit. References adde

Three little pieces for computer and relativity

Numerical relativity has made big strides over the last decade. A number of problems that have plagued the field for years have now been mostly solved. This progress has transformed numerical relativity into a powerful tool to explore fundamental problems in physics and astrophysics, and I present here three representative examples. These "three little pieces" reflect a personal choice and describe work that I am particularly familiar with. However, many more examples could be made.Comment: 42 pages, 11 figures. Plenary talk at "Relativity and Gravitation: 100 Years after Einstein in Prague", June 25 - 29, 2012, Prague, Czech Republic. To appear in the Proceedings (Edition Open Access). Collects results appeared in journal articles [72,73, 122-124

Conformational changes during pore formation by the perforin-related protein pleurotolysin

Membrane attack complex/perforin-like (MACPF) proteins comprise the largest superfamily of pore-forming proteins, playing crucial roles in immunity and pathogenesis. Soluble monomers assemble into large transmembrane pores via conformational transitions that remain to be structurally and mechanistically characterised. Here we present an 11 Å resolution cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM) structure of the two-part, fungal toxin Pleurotolysin (Ply), together with crystal structures of both components (the lipid binding PlyA protein and the pore-forming MACPF component PlyB). These data reveal a 13-fold pore 80 Å in diameter and 100 Å in height, with each subunit comprised of a PlyB molecule atop a membrane bound dimer of PlyA. The resolution of the EM map, together with biophysical and computational experiments, allowed confident assignment of subdomains in a MACPF pore assembly. The major conformational changes in PlyB are a ~70° opening of the bent and distorted central β-sheet of the MACPF domain, accompanied by extrusion and refolding of two α-helical regions into transmembrane β-hairpins (TMH1 and TMH2). We determined the structures of three different disulphide bond-trapped prepore intermediates. Analysis of these data by molecular modelling and flexible fitting allows us to generate a potential trajectory of β-sheet unbending. The results suggest that MACPF conformational change is triggered through disruption of the interface between a conserved helix-turn-helix motif and the top of TMH2. Following their release we propose that the transmembrane regions assemble into β-hairpins via top down zippering of backbone hydrogen bonds to form the membrane-inserted β-barrel. The intermediate structures of the MACPF domain during refolding into the β-barrel pore establish a structural paradigm for the transition from soluble monomer to pore, which may be conserved across the whole superfamily. The TMH2 region is critical for the release of both TMH clusters, suggesting why this region is targeted by endogenous inhibitors of MACPF function

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta

Exploring new physics frontiers through numerical relativity

The demand to obtain answers to highly complex problems within strong-field gravity has been met with significant progress in the numerical solution of Einstein's equations - along with some spectacular results - in various setups. We review techniques for solving Einstein's equations in generic spacetimes, focusing on fully nonlinear evolutions but also on how to benchmark those results with perturbative approaches. The results address problems in high-energy physics, holography, mathematical physics, fundamental physics, astrophysics and cosmology

Application of geographic information systems and simulation modelling to dental public health: Where next?

Public health research in dentistry has used geographic information systems since the 1960s. Since then, the methods used in the field have matured, moving beyond simple spatial associations to the use of complex spatial statistics and, on occasions, simulation modelling. Many analyses are often descriptive in nature; however, and the use of more advanced spatial simulation methods within dental public health remains rare, despite the potential they offer the field. This review introduces a new approach to geographical analysis of oral health outcomes in neighbourhoods and small area geographies through two novel simulation methods-spatial microsimulation and agent-based modelling. Spatial microsimulation is a population synthesis technique, used to combine survey data with Census population totals to create representative individual-level population datasets, allowing for the use of individual-level data previously unavailable at small spatial scales. Agent-based models are computer simulations capable of capturing interactions and feedback mechanisms, both of which are key to understanding health outcomes. Due to these dynamic and interactive processes, the method has an advantage over traditional statistical techniques such as regression analysis, which often isolate elements from each other when testing for statistical significance. This article discusses the current state of spatial analysis within the dental public health field, before reviewing each of the methods, their applications, as well as their advantages and limitations. Directions and topics for future research are also discussed, before addressing the potential to combine the two methods in order to further utilize their advantages. Overall, this review highlights the promise these methods offer, not just for making methodological advances, but also for adding to our ability to test and better understand theoretical concepts and pathways

Parameter estimation method that directly compares gravitational wave observations to numerical relativity

We present and assess a Bayesian method to interpret gravitational wave signals from binary black holes. Our method directly compares gravitational wave data to numerical relativity (NR) simulations. In this study, we present a detailed investigation of the systematic and statistical parameter estimation errors of this method. This procedure bypasses approximations used in semianalytical models for compact binary coalescence. In this work, we use the full posterior parameter distribution for only generic nonprecessing binaries, drawing inferences away from the set of NR simulations used, via interpolation of a single scalar quantity (the marginalized log likelihood, ln L ) evaluated by comparing data to nonprecessing binary black hole simulations. We also compare the data to generic simulations, and discuss the effectiveness of this procedure for generic sources. We specifically assess the impact of higher order modes, repeating our interpretation with both l ≤ 2 as well as l ≤ 3 harmonic modes. Using the l ≤ 3 higher modes, we gain more information from the signal and can better constrain the parameters of the gravitational wave signal. We assess and quantify several sources of systematic error that our procedure could introduce, including simulation resolution and duration; most are negligible. We show through examples that our method can recover the parameters for equal mass, zero spin, GW150914-like, and unequal mass, precessing spin sources. Our study of this new parameter estimation method demonstrates that we can quantify and understand the systematic and statistical error. This method allows us to use higher order modes from numerical relativity simulations to better constrain the black hole binary parameters

Dynamics of Disks and Warps

This chapter reviews theoretical work on the stellar dynamics of galaxy disks. All the known collective global instabilities are identified, and their mechanisms described in terms of local wave mechanics. A detailed discussion of warps and other bending waves is also given. The structure of bars in galaxies, and their effect on galaxy evolution, is now reasonably well understood, but there is still no convincing explanation for their origin and frequency. Spiral patterns have long presented a special challenge, and ideas and recent developments are reviewed. Other topics include scattering of disk stars and the survival of thin disks.Comment: Chapter accepted to appear in Planets, Stars and Stellar Systems, vol 5, ed G. Gilmore. 32 pages, 17 figures. Includes minor corrections made in proofs. Uses emulateapj.st