Modeling the dynamics of glacial cycles

This article is concerned with the dynamics of glacial cycles observed in the geological record of the Pleistocene Epoch. It focuses on a conceptual model proposed by Maasch and Saltzman [J. Geophys. Res.,95, D2 (1990), pp. 1955-1963], which is based on physical arguments and emphasizes the role of atmospheric CO2 in the generation and persistence of periodic orbits (limit cycles). The model consists of three ordinary differential equations with four parameters for the anomalies of the total global ice mass, the atmospheric CO2 concentration, and the volume of the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). In this article, it is shown that a simplified two-dimensional symmetric version displays many of the essential features of the full model, including equilibrium states, limit cycles, their basic bifurcations, and a Bogdanov-Takens point that serves as an organizing center for the local and global dynamics. Also, symmetry breaking splits the Bogdanov-Takens point into two, with different local dynamics in their neighborhoods

Mechanisms regulating IgA class-specific immunoglobulin production in murine gut-associated lymphoid tissues. I. T cells derived from Peyer's patches that switch sIgM B Cells to sIgA B cells in vitro

To explore mechanisms of T cell regulation governing mucosal IgA immune response, concanavalin A-induced cloned T cell lines from Peyer's patches (PP) as well as spleen were established. The cloned cell lines expressed Thy- 1.2(+), Lyt-l(+)2(-) and were radioresistant (1,500 rad). The capacity of the cloned T cells to regulate Ig synthesis was determined by measuring their effect on lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-induced polyclonal Ig synthesis by PP B cells. In initial studies Ig secreted by B cells was determined by double antibody radioimmunoassay. LPS in the absence of cloned T cells induced abundant amounts of IgM (average 8,860 ng/2 × 10(5) B cells) and IgG (average 1,190 ng/2 × 10(5) B cells), but little or no IgA. The addition of PP cloned T cells markedly suppressed production of IgM (88 percent at the highest T/B cell ratio, 4:1), but the addition of spleen cloned T cells suppressed only a little or not at all. IgG production was inhibited by both PP and spleen T clone cells (70 percent at the 4:1 T/B ratio), wheras IgA synthesis was enhanced by both clones, but only to a limited degree. In subsequent studies the expression of class-specific surface Ig (sIg) and cytoplasmic Ig (cIg) on/in unseparated PP B cells as well as Ig class- specific PP B cells and spleen B cells during culture with or without the cloned T cells was determined by immunofluorescence. The major findings were as follows: (a) Compared with unseparated B cell cultures and cultures of purified sIgM B cells derived from PP containing LPS alone, cultures containing LPS and PP cloned T cells showed a marked decrease in cIgM-, sIgG-, and cIgG-expressing cells that was accompanied by a striking increase in sIgA-bearing, but not cIgA-containing, cells. In contrast, unseparated B cell cultures and cultures of purified sIgM B cells derived from PP containing LPS and spleen cloned T cells did not show any increase in sIgA- bearing cells. (b) Compared with purified sIgG-bearing PP B cell cultures containing LPS alone, purified sIgG-bearing PP B cell cultures containing both LPS and PP cloned T cells showed no substantial change in sIgG- or cIgG- expressing cells, and no sIgA- or cIgA- expressing cells appeared. (c) Compared with sIgA-bearing PP B cell cultures containing LPS alone, purified sIgA-bearing PP B cell cultures containing both LPS and PP cloned T cells showed no increased proliferation, and cIgA cells did not occur. Cultures of purified sIgM B cells derived from spleen containing LPS and PP cloned T cells showed qualitatively similar changes. From these results we conclude that PP cloned T cells induced class-specific switching from sIgM- to sIgA- bearing B cells, whereas spleen cloned T cells lacked this property, although they may have induced an IgM {arrow} IgG or intersubclass IgG switch. These processes seem to be in part tissue dependent. Furthermore, the PP switch T cells appear to operate as true switch cells, which govern the pathway of DNA recombination events, rather than as classical helper cells, which act to expand already differentiated cells. Finally, these switch T cells probably account for the fact that PP are an important source of IgA B cells and also a major site of IgA heavy chain class switching during gut-associated mucosal B cell proliferation and differentation

Progress in paleoclimate modeling

International audienceThis paper briefly surveys areas of paleoclimate modeling notable for recent progress. New ideas, including hypotheses giving a pivotal role to sea ice, have revitalized the low-order models used to simulate the time evolution of glacial cycles through the Pleistocene, a prohibitive length of time for comprehensive general circulation models (GCMs). In a recent breakthrough, however, GCMs have succeeded in simulating the onset of glaciations. This occurs at times (most recently, 115 kyr B.P.) when high northern latitudes are cold enough to maintain a snow cover and tropical latitudes are warm, enhancing the moisture source. More generally, the improvement in models has allowed simulations of key periods such as the Last Glacial Maximum and the mid-Holocene that compare more favorably and in more detail with paleoproxy data. These models now simulate ENSO cycles, and some of them have been shown to reproduce the reduction of ENSO activity observed in the early to middle Holocene. Modeling studies have demonstrated that the reduction is a response to the altered orbital configuration at that time. An urgent challenge for paleoclimate modeling is to explain and to simulate the abrupt changes observed during glacial epochs (i.e., Dansgaard-Oescher cycles, Heinrich events, and the Younger Dryas). Efforts have begun to simulate the last millennium. Over this time the forcing due to orbital variations is less important than the radiance changes due to volcanic eruptions and variations in solar output. Simulations of these natural variations test the models relied on for future climate change projections. They provide better estimates of the internal and naturally forced variability at centennial time scales, elucidating how unusual the recent global temperature trends are

The Lore of Low Methane Livestock:Co-Producing Technology and Animals for Reduced Climate Change Impact

Methane emissions from sheep and cattle production have gained increasing profile in the context of climate change. Policy and scientific research communities have suggested a number of technological approaches to mitigate these emissions. This paper uses the concept of co-production as an analytical framework to understand farmers’ evaluation of a 'good animal’. It examines how technology and sheep and beef cattle are co-produced in the context of concerns about the climate change impact of methane. Drawing on 42 semi-structured interviews, this paper demonstrates that methane emissions are viewed as a natural and integral part of sheep and beef cattle by farmers, rather than as a pollutant. Sheep and beef cattle farmers in the UK are found to be an extremely heterogeneous group that need to be understood in their specific social, environmental and consumer contexts. Some are more amenable to appropriating methane reducing measures than others, but largely because animals are already co-constructed from the natural and the technical for reasons of increased production efficiency

How can a glacial inception be predicted?

The Early Anthropogenic Hypothesis considers that greenhouse gas concentrations should have declined during the Holocene in absence of humankind activity, leading to glacial inception around the present. It partly relies on the fact that present levels of northern summer incoming solar radiation are close to those that, in the past, preceded a glacial inception phenomenon, associated to declines in greenhouse gas concentrations. However, experiments with various numerical models of glacial cycles show that next glacial inception may still be delayed by several ten thousands of years, even with the assumption of greenhouse gas concentration declines during the Holocene. Furthermore, as we show here, conceptual models designed to capture the gross dynamics of the climate system as a whole suggest also that small disturbances may sometimes cause substantial delays in glacial events, causing a fair level of unpredictability on ice age dynamics. This suggests the need of a validated mathematical description of the climate system dynamics that allows us to quantify uncertainties on predictions. Here, it is proposed to organise our knowledge about the physics and dynamics of glacial cycles through a Bayesian inference network. Constraints on the physics and dynamics of climate can be encapsulated into a stochastic dynamical system. These constraints include, in particular, estimates of the sensitivity of the components of climate to external forcings, inferred from plans of experiments with large simulators of the atmosphere, oceans and ice sheets. On the other hand, palaeoclimate observations are accounted for through a process of parameter calibration. We discuss promises and challenges raised by this programme.Comment: Contribution to the special issue of 'The Holocene' on the Early Anthropogenic Hypotheses. W.R. Ruddiman, M. Crucifix, F. Oldfiel

Impact of TGF-ß1 -509C/T and 869T/C polymorphisms on glioma risk and patient prognosis

Transforming growth factor beta (TGF-ß) plays an important role in carcinogenesis. Two polymorphisms in the TGF-ß1 gene (-509C/T and 869T/C) were described to influence susceptibility to gastric and breast cancers. The 869T/C polymorphism was also associated with overall survival in breast cancer patients. In the present study, we investigated the relevance of these TGF-ß1 polymorphism in glioma risk and prognosis. A case-control study that included 114 glioma patients and 138 cancer-free controls was performed. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were evaluated by polymerase chain reaction followed by restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to calculate odds ratio (OR) and 95 % confidence intervals (95 % CI). The influence of TGF-ß1 -509C/T and 869T/C polymorphisms on glioma patient survival was evaluated by a Cox regression model adjusted for patients' age and sex and represented in Kaplan-Meier curves. Our results demonstrated that TGF-ß1 gene polymorphisms -509C/T and 869T/C are not significantly associated with glioma risk. Survival analyses showed that the homozygous -509TT genotype associates with longer overall survival of glioblastoma (GBM) patients when compared with patients carrying CC + CT genotypes (OR, 2.41; 95 % CI, 1.06-5.50; p = 0.036). In addition, the homozygous 869CC genotype is associated with increased overall survival of GBM patients when compared with 869TT + TC genotypes (OR, 2.62; 95 % CI, 1.11-6.17; p = 0.027). In conclusion, this study suggests that TGF-ß1 -509C/T and 869T/C polymorphisms are not significantly associated with risk for developing gliomas but may be relevant prognostic biomarkers in GBM patients.This work was supported by Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia, Portugal (PTDC/SAU-GMG/113795/2009 and SFRH/BPD/33612/2009 to B.M.C.; SFRH/BD/88121/2012 to J.V.C.; SFRH/BD/92786/2013 to C.S.G.; PTDC/SAU-ONC/115513/2009 to R.R.)

Priorities and strategies for improving disabled women's access to maternity services when they are affected by domestic abuse:a multi-method study using concept maps

BACKGROUND: Domestic abuse is a significant public health issue. It occurs more frequently among disabled women than those without a disability and evidence suggests that a great deal of domestic abuse begins or worsens during pregnancy. All women and their infants are entitled to equal access to high quality maternity care. However, research has shown that disabled women who experience domestic abuse face numerous barriers to accessing care. The aim of the study was to identify the priority areas for improving access to maternity services for this group of women; develop strategies for improved access and utilisation; and explore the feasibility of implementing the identified strategies. METHODS: This multi-method study was the third and final part of a larger study conducted in the UK between 2012 and 2014. The study used a modified concept mapping approach and was theoretically underpinned by Andersen’s model of healthcare use. Seven focus group interviews were conducted with a range of maternity care professionals (n = 45), incorporating quantitative and qualitative components. Participants ranked perceived barriers to women’s access and utilisation of maternity services in order of priority using a 5-point Likert scale. Quantitative data exploration used descriptive and non-parametric analyses. In the qualitative component of each focus group, participants discussed the barriers and identified potential improvement strategies (and feasibility of implementing these). Qualitative data were analysed inductively using a framework analysis approach. RESULTS: The three most highly ranked barriers to women’s access and utilisation of maternity services identified in the quantitative component were: 1) staff being unaware and not asking about domestic abuse and disability; 2) the impact of domestic abuse on women; 3) women’s fear of disclosure. The top two priority strategies were: providing information about domestic abuse to all women and promoting non-judgemental staff attitude. These were also considered very feasible. The qualitative analysis identified a range of psychosocial and environmental barriers experienced by this group of women in accessing maternity care. Congruent with the quantitative results, the main themes were lack of awareness and fear of disclosure. Key strategies were identified as demystifying disclosure and creating physical spaces to facilitate disclosure. CONCLUSIONS: The study supports findings of previous research regarding the barriers that women face in accessing and utilising maternity services, particularly regarding the issue of disclosure. But the study provides new evidence on the perceived importance and feasibility of strategies to address such barriers. This is an important step in ensuring practice-based acceptability and ease with which improvement strategies might be implemented in maternity care settings

Short-Lived Trace Gases in the Surface Ocean and the Atmosphere

The two-way exchange of trace gases between the ocean and the atmosphere is important for both the chemistry and physics of the atmosphere and the biogeochemistry of the oceans, including the global cycling of elements. Here we review these exchanges and their importance for a range of gases whose lifetimes are generally short compared to the main greenhouse gases and which are, in most cases, more reactive than them. Gases considered include sulphur and related compounds, organohalogens, non-methane hydrocarbons, ozone, ammonia and related compounds, hydrogen and carbon monoxide. Finally, we stress the interactivity of the system, the importance of process understanding for modeling, the need for more extensive field measurements and their better seasonal coverage, the importance of inter-calibration exercises and finally the need to show the importance of air-sea exchanges for global cycling and how the field fits into the broader context of Earth System Science