The Third Way on Objective Probability: A Skeptic's Guide to Objective Chance

The goal of this paper is to sketch and defend a new interpretation or theory of objective chance, one that lets us be sure such chances exist and shows how they can play the roles we traditionally grant them. The subtitle obviously emulates the title of Lewis seminal 1980 paper A Subjectivist s Guide to Objective Chance while indicating an important difference in perspective. The view developed below shares two major tenets with Lewis last (1994) account of objective chance: (1) The Principal Principle tells us most of what we know about objective chance; (2) Objective chances are not primitive modal facts, propensities, or powers, but rather facts entailed by the overall pattern of events and processes in the actual world. But it differs from Lewis’ account in most other respects. Another subtitle I considered was A Humean Guide ... But while the account of chance below is compatible with any stripe of Humeanism (Lewis , Hume s, and others ), it presupposes no general Humean philosophy. Only a skeptical attitude about probability itself is presupposed (as in point (2) above); what we should say about causality, laws, modality and so on is left a separate question. Still, I will label the account to be developed “Humean objective chance”

Humean Effective Strategies

In a now-classic paper, Nancy Cartwright argued that the Humean conception of causation as mere regular co-occurrence is too weak to make sense of our everyday and scientific practices. Specifically she claimed that in order to understand our reasoning about, and uses of, effective strategies, we need a metaphysically stronger notion of causation and causal laws than Humeanism allows. Cartwright’s arguments were formulated in the framework of probabilistic causation, and it is precisely in the domain of (objective) probabilities that I am interested in defending a form of Humeanism. In this paper I will unpack some examples of effective strategies and discuss how well they fit the framework of causal laws and criteria such as CC from Cartwright’s and others’ works on probabilistic causality. As part of this discussion, I will also consider the concept or concepts of objective probability presupposed in these works. I will argue that Cartwright’s notion of a nomological machine, or a mechanism as defined by Stuart Glennan, is better suited for making sense of effective strategies, and therefore that a metaphysically primitive notion of causal law (or singular causation, or capacity, as Cartwright argues in (1989)) is not – here, at least – needed. These conclusions, as well as the concept of objective probabilities I defend, are largely in harmony with claims Cartwright defends in The Dappled World. My discussion aims, thus, to bring out into the open how far Cartwright’s current views are from a radically anti-Humean, causal-fundamentalist picture

Locally Stable Marriage with Strict Preferences

We study stable matching problems with locality of information and control. In our model, each agent is a node in a fixed network and strives to be matched to another agent. An agent has a complete preference list over all other agents it can be matched with. Agents can match arbitrarily, and they learn about possible partners dynamically based on their current neighborhood. We consider convergence of dynamics to locally stable matchings -- states that are stable with respect to their imposed information structure in the network. In the two-sided case of stable marriage in which existence is guaranteed, we show that the existence of a path to stability becomes NP-hard to decide. This holds even when the network exists only among one partition of agents. In contrast, if one partition has no network and agents remember a previous match every round, a path to stability is guaranteed and random dynamics converge with probability 1. We characterize this positive result in various ways. For instance, it holds for random memory and for cache memory with the most recent partner, but not for cache memory with the best partner. Also, it is crucial which partition of the agents has memory. Finally, we present results for centralized computation of locally stable matchings, i.e., computing maximum locally stable matchings in the two-sided case and deciding existence in the roommates case.Comment: Conference version in ICALP 2013; to appear in SIAM J. Disc Mat

Vortex-antivortex proliferation from an obstacle in thin film ferromagnets

Magnetization dynamics in thin film ferromagnets can be studied using a dispersive hydrodynamic formulation. The equations describing the magnetodynamics map to a compressible fluid with broken Galilean invariance parametrized by the longitudinal spin density and a magnetic analog of the fluid velocity that define spin-density waves. A direct consequence of these equations is the determination of a magnetic Mach number. Micromagnetic simulations reveal nucleation of nonlinear structures from an impenetrable object realized by an applied magnetic field spot or a defect. In this work, micromagnetic simulations demonstrate vortex-antivortex pair nucleation from an obstacle. Their interaction establishes either ordered or irregular vortex-antivortex complexes. Furthermore, when the magnetic Mach number exceeds unity (supersonic flow), a Mach cone and periodic wavefronts are observed, which can be well-described by solutions of the steady, linearized equations. These results are reminiscent of theoretical and experimental observations in Bose-Einstein condensates, and further supports the analogy between the magnetodynamics of a thin film ferromagnet and compressible fluids. The nucleation of nonlinear structures and vortex-antivortex complexes using this approach enables the study of their interactions and effects on the stability of spin-density waves.Comment: 23 pages, 7 figure