Scale-free memory model for multiagent reinforcement learning. Mean field approximation and rock-paper-scissors dynamics

A continuous time model for multiagent systems governed by reinforcement learning with scale-free memory is developed. The agents are assumed to act independently of one another in optimizing their choice of possible actions via trial-and-error search. To gain awareness about the action value the agents accumulate in their memory the rewards obtained from taking a specific action at each moment of time. The contribution of the rewards in the past to the agent current perception of action value is described by an integral operator with a power-law kernel. Finally a fractional differential equation governing the system dynamics is obtained. The agents are considered to interact with one another implicitly via the reward of one agent depending on the choice of the other agents. The pairwise interaction model is adopted to describe this effect. As a specific example of systems with non-transitive interactions, a two agent and three agent systems of the rock-paper-scissors type are analyzed in detail, including the stability analysis and numerical simulation. Scale-free memory is demonstrated to cause complex dynamics of the systems at hand. In particular, it is shown that there can be simultaneously two modes of the system instability undergoing subcritical and supercritical bifurcation, with the latter one exhibiting anomalous oscillations with the amplitude and period growing with time. Besides, the instability onset via this supercritical mode may be regarded as "altruism self-organization". For the three agent system the instability dynamics is found to be rather irregular and can be composed of alternate fragments of oscillations different in their properties.Comment: 17 pages, 7 figur

Discovering novel germline genetic variants linked to severe fluoropyrimidine-related toxicity in- and outside <i>DPYD</i>

Background: The Alpe-DPD study (NCT02324452) demonstrated that prospective genotyping and dose-individualization using four alleles in DPYD (DPYD*2A/rs3918290, c.1236G &gt; A/rs75017182, c.2846A &gt; T/rs67376798 and c.1679 T &gt; G/rs56038477) can mitigate the risk of severe fluoropyrimidine toxicity. However, this could not prevent all toxicities. The goal of this study was to identify additional genetic variants, both inside and outside DPYD, that may contribute to fluoropyrimidine toxicity. Methods: Biospecimens and data from the Alpe-DPD study were used. Exon sequencing was performed to identify risk variants inside DPYD. In silico and in vitro analyses were used to classify DPYD variants. A genome-wide association study (GWAS) with severe fluoropyrimidine-related toxicity was performed to identify variants outside DPYD. Association with severe toxicity was assessed using matched-pair analyses for the exon sequencing and logistic, Cox, and ordinal regression analyses for GWAS. Results: Twenty-four non-synonymous, frameshift, and splice site DPYD variants were detected in ten of 986 patients. Seven of these variants (c.1670C &gt; T, c.1913 T &gt; C, c.1925 T &gt; C, c.506delC, c.731A &gt; C, c.1740 + 1G &gt; T, c.763 − 2A &gt; G) were predicted to be deleterious. The carriers of either of these variants showed a trend towards a 2.14-fold (95% CI, 0.41–11.3, P = 0.388) increased risk of severe toxicity compared to matched controls (N = 30). After GWAS of 942 patients, no individual single nucleotide polymorphisms achieved genome-wide significance (P ≤ 5 × 10−8), however, five variants were suggestive of association (P &lt; 5 × 10−6) with severe toxicity. Conclusions: Results from DPYD exon sequencing and GWAS analysis did not identify additional genetic variants associated with severe toxicity, which suggests that testing for single markers at a population level currently has limited clinical value. Identifying additional variants on an individual level is still promising to explain fluoropyrimidine-related severe toxicity. In addition, studies with larger samples sizes, in more diverse cohorts are needed to identify potential clinically relevant genetic variants related to severe fluoropyrimidine toxicity.</p

Increased Mortality in SDHB but Not in SDHD Pathogenic Variant Carriers

Germline mutations in succinate dehydrogenase subunit B and D (SDHB and SDHD) are predisposed to hereditary paraganglioma (PGL) and pheochromocytoma (PHEO). The phenotype of pathogenic variants varies according to the causative gene. In this retrospective study, we estimate the mortality of a nationwide cohort of SDHB variant carriers and that of a large cohort of SDHD variant carriers and compare it to the mortality of a matched cohort of the general Dutch population. A total of 192 SDHB variant carriers and 232 SDHD variant carriers were included in this study. The Standard Mortality Ratio (SMR) for SDHB mutation carriers was 1.89, increasing to 2.88 in carriers affected by PGL. For SDHD variant carriers the SMR was 0.93 and 1.06 in affected carriers. Compared to the general population, mortality seems to be increased in SDHB variant carriers, especially in those affected by PGL. In SDHD variant carriers, the mortality is comparable to that of the general Dutch population, even if they are affected by PGL. This insight emphasizes the significance of DNA-testing in all PGL and PHEO patients, since different clinical risks may warrant gene-specific management strategies

Virtual Ontogeny of Cortical Growth Preceding Mental Illness

Background: Morphology of the human cerebral cortex differs across psychiatric disorders, with neurobiology and developmental origins mostly undetermined. Deviations in the tangential growth of the cerebral cortex during pre/perinatal periods may be reflected in individual variations in cortical surface area later in life. Methods: Interregional profiles of group differences in surface area between cases and controls were generated using T1-weighted magnetic resonance imaging from 27,359 individuals including those with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, autism spectrum disorder, bipolar disorder, major depressive disorder, schizophrenia, and high general psychopathology (through the Child Behavior Checklist). Similarity of interregional profiles of group differences in surface area and prenatal cell-specific gene expression was assessed. Results: Across the 11 cortical regions, group differences in cortical area for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, schizophrenia, and Child Behavior Checklist were dominant in multimodal association cortices. The same interregional profiles were also associated with interregional profiles of (prenatal) gene expression specific to proliferative cells, namely radial glia and intermediate progenitor cells (greater expression, larger difference), as well as differentiated cells, namely excitatory neurons and endothelial and mural cells (greater expression, smaller difference). Finally, these cell types were implicated in known pre/perinatal risk factors for psychosis. Genes coexpressed with radial glia were enriched with genes implicated in congenital abnormalities, birth weight, hypoxia, and starvation. Genes coexpressed with endothelial and mural genes were enriched with genes associated with maternal hypertension and preterm birth. Conclusions: Our findings support a neurodevelopmental model of vulnerability to mental illness whereby prenatal risk factors acting through cell-specific processes lead to deviations from typical brain development during pregnancy

Understanding Business Process Quality

Abstract Organizations have taken benefit from quality management prac-tices in manufacturing and logistics with respect to competitiveness as well as profitability. At the same time, an ever-growing share of the organizational value chain centers around transactional administrative processes addressed by business process management concepts, e.g. in finance and accounting. Integrating these fields is thus very promising from a management perspec-tive. Obtaining a clear understanding of business process quality constitutes the most important prerequisite in this respect. However, related approaches have not yet provided an effective solution to this issue. In this chapter, we consider effectiveness requirements towards business process quality concepts from a management perspective, compare existing approaches from various fields, deduct a definition framework from organizational targets, and take initial steps towards practical adoption. These steps provide fundamental in-sights into business process quality, and contribute to obtain a clear grasp of what constitutes a good business process.

The genetic architecture of the human cerebral cortex

INTRODUCTION The cerebral cortex underlies our complex cognitive capabilities. Variations in human cortical surface area and thickness are associated with neurological, psychological, and behavioral traits and can be measured in vivo by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Studies in model organisms have identified genes that influence cortical structure, but little is known about common genetic variants that affect human cortical structure. RATIONALE To identify genetic variants associated with human cortical structure at both global and regional levels, we conducted a genome-wide association meta-analysis of brain MRI data from 51,665 individuals across 60 cohorts. We analyzed the surface area and average thickness of the whole cortex and 34 cortical regions with known functional specializations. RESULTS We identified 306 nominally genome-wide significant loci (P < 5 × 10−8) associated with cortical structure in a discovery sample of 33,992 participants of European ancestry. Of the 299 loci for which replication data were available, 241 loci influencing surface area and 14 influencing thickness remained significant after replication, with 199 loci passing multiple testing correction (P < 8.3 × 10−10; 187 influencing surface area and 12 influencing thickness). Common genetic variants explained 34% (SE = 3%) of the variation in total surface area and 26% (SE = 2%) in average thickness; surface area and thickness showed a negative genetic correlation (rG = −0.32, SE = 0.05, P = 6.5 × 10−12), which suggests that genetic influences have opposing effects on surface area and thickness. Bioinformatic analyses showed that total surface area is influenced by genetic variants that alter gene regulatory activity in neural progenitor cells during fetal development. By contrast, average thickness is influenced by active regulatory elements in adult brain samples, which may reflect processes that occur after mid-fetal development, such as myelination, branching, or pruning. When considered together, these results support the radial unit hypothesis that different developmental mechanisms promote surface area expansion and increases in thickness. To identify specific genetic influences on individual cortical regions, we controlled for global measures (total surface area or average thickness) in the regional analyses. After multiple testing correction, we identified 175 loci that influence regional surface area and 10 that influence regional thickness. Loci that affect regional surface area cluster near genes involved in the Wnt signaling pathway, which is known to influence areal identity. We observed significant positive genetic correlations and evidence of bidirectional causation of total surface area with both general cognitive functioning and educational attainment. We found additional positive genetic correlations between total surface area and Parkinson’s disease but did not find evidence of causation. Negative genetic correlations were evident between total surface area and insomnia, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, depressive symptoms, major depressive disorder, and neuroticism. CONCLUSION This large-scale collaborative work enhances our understanding of the genetic architecture of the human cerebral cortex and its regional patterning. The highly polygenic architecture of the cortex suggests that distinct genes are involved in the development of specific cortical areas. Moreover, we find evidence that brain structure is a key phenotype along the causal pathway that leads from genetic variation to differences in general cognitive function

Discovering novel germline genetic variants linked to severe fluoropyrimidine-related toxicity in- and outside DPYD

Background: The Alpe-DPD study (NCT02324452) demonstrated that prospective genotyping and dose-individualization using four alleles in DPYD (DPYD*2A/rs3918290, c.1236G > A/rs75017182, c.2846A > T/rs67376798 and c.1679 T > G/rs56038477) can mitigate the risk of severe fluoropyrimidine toxicity. However, this could not prevent all toxicities. The goal of this study was to identify additional genetic variants, both inside and outside DPYD, that may contribute to fluoropyrimidine toxicity. Methods: Biospecimens and data from the Alpe-DPD study were used. Exon sequencing was performed to identify risk variants inside DPYD. In silico and in vitro analyses were used to classify DPYD variants. A genome-wide association study (GWAS) with severe fluoropyrimidine-related toxicity was performed to identify variants outside DPYD. Association with severe toxicity was assessed using matched-pair analyses for the exon sequencing and logistic, Cox, and ordinal regression analyses for GWAS. Results: Twenty-four non-synonymous, frameshift, and splice site DPYD variants were detected in ten of 986 patients. Seven of these variants (c.1670C > T, c.1913 T > C, c.1925 T > C, c.506delC, c.731A > C, c.1740 + 1G > T, c.763 − 2A > G) were predicted to be deleterious. The carriers of either of these variants showed a trend towards a 2.14-fold (95% CI, 0.41–11.3, P = 0.388) increased risk of severe toxicity compared to matched controls (N = 30). After GWAS of 942 patients, no individual single nucleotide polymorphisms achieved genome-wide significance (P ≤ 5 × 10−8), however, five variants were suggestive of association (P < 5 × 10−6) with severe toxicity. Conclusions: Results from DPYD exon sequencing and GWAS analysis did not identify additional genetic variants associated with severe toxicity, which suggests that testing for single markers at a population level currently has limited clinical value. Identifying additional variants on an individual level is still promising to explain fluoropyrimidine-related severe toxicity. In addition, studies with larger samples sizes, in more diverse cohorts are needed to identify potential clinically relevant genetic variants related to severe fluoropyrimidine toxicity

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods: We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings: Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation: Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Plasma lipid profiles discriminate bacterial from viral infection in febrile children

Fever is the most common reason that children present to Emergency Departments. Clinical signs and symptoms suggestive of bacterial infection ar